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2016 Holiday Survey
Ringing in the retail
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Contents
Economic outlook and spending 5
Where consumers shop and why 13
Digital impact on holiday shopping 26
Retailer policies and practices 36
When consumers plan to shop 42
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 3
Consumers generally upbeat about economy, but many plan to
rein in non-gift holiday spending
Consumers surveyed remain positive about the US economy and
continue to report improved personal financial situations.
Expect gift spending
to be comparable to the 2015 season, with shoppers planning to
spend roughly $430. Many, however, plan to rein in the non-gift
spending,
including holiday travel and expenses tied to social events.
Only 27% of respondents say that the upcoming presidential
election will impact their holiday spending.
Online channels set to make holiday history
More consumers plan to shop online this holiday season than
ever before. Half plan to shop online, significantly more than
those who plan to
visit popular store destinations such as discount department
stores (43%), traditional department stores (32%) and outlet
stores (26%). More
importantly, shoppers anticipate spending more online too. In
fact, for the first time this holiday season, consumers plan to
spend just as much
online as they will in stores.
Online to steal foot traffic from all popular shopping venues
Online channels will continue to take foot traffic away from all
popular store formats. Fewer holiday shoppers plan to visit “big
box’ retailers,
traditional malls, local independent stores, strip malls and mini-
malls compared to 2015.
Consumers continue to seek out stores for a complete
experience
While digital will influence the lion’s share of holiday
purchases this season, shoppers will continue to blend both
online and offline channels to
optimize the shopping experience and procure the right gifts on
the best possible terms. Two thirds of respondents will shop
online and then
purchase in store (webrooming); half will shop in store and then
buy online (showrooming); and more than 4 in 10 will take
advantage of buy
online, pick up in store offers.
Shoppers will seek out physical stores for their distinct
advantages, namely the ability to see and touch product (48%).
In a fragmenting marketplace, consumers experiment with non-
traditional venues
Almost three quarters of consumers surveyed report that they
will try “new or different” retailers this year, most often local
independent stores
and new web retailers. More than one quarter will gift
experiences in lieu of gifts. While shoppers expect a majority
of their spend to go to
merchants with whom they are already familiar, this high level
of experimentation is noteworthy.
Holiday highlights
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 4
Retailers will feel the “Prime effect”
Consumer expectations of retail policies continue to rise –
particularly when it comes shipping. Unlike last holiday season,
shoppers no longer
consider 3-4 day shipping to be “fast,” and they expect to pay
less for same day, next day and 2-3 shipping than they did last
year. Almost two
thirds of holiday shoppers surveyed think they should be able to
order a gift sometime after December 17th and still get free
delivery by the 24th.
PCs still dominate online spending, with retail apps winning the
mobile payment category
While consumers plan to make the overwhelming majority of
their online purchases with their desktops and laptops, mobile
spenders are on the
rise. Forty-three percent of smartphone owners plan to make at
least one mobile purchase this holiday season, up from 35% in
2014.
Retail apps lead the mobile payment category, but the mobile
web is not too far behind. Significantly fewer shoppers plan to
use mobile wallet
services at the counter.
Consumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping assistants
Smartphones will be an indispensable tool this holiday season.
Nearly 8 in 10 respondents anticipate using their smartphone for
holiday shopping.
Sixty-one percent of smartphone owners will use their devices
to get store locations, with many others using their devices to
compare prices
(57%), get product information (50%) and read reviews (51%)
on the go.
Clothing and gift cards remain top gift ideas, and most shoppers
will seek items on sale
Relatively unchanged from past holiday seasons, clothes (50%)
and gift cards (48%) remain the most popular gifts. A little over
one third (36%)
plan to purchase electronics, including computers, mobile
devices, home electronics items, wearable technology and
gaming consoles. On
average, shoppers plan to purchase about 14 gifts.
Sales and deals are always important for shoppers but can be
particularly influential during the holiday season when cash is
tight and consumers
are looking to cut corners. An estimated 33% of gift purchases
will be made on sale or promotion, and 77% of consumers will
take advantage of
sales at some point in the holiday season.
Data privacy is top of mind, but consumers will forgive data
breaches
Nearly 3 in 4 shoppers are concerned about data privacy to
some degree – but, overall, data privacy issues will have little
impact on what
consumers purchase and where they choose to buy. If a retailer
experiences one or more data breaches, consumers are likely to
be empathetic,
and shop with the brand again if the retailer takes appropriate
measures to regain their trust.
Holiday highlights
Economic outlook
and spending
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 6
6%
38%
33%
15%
7%
Improve
significantly
Improve
modestly
Remain the
same
Weaken
modestly
Weaken
significantly
US economy will…
45% 22%
“Weaken”“Improve”
42% in 2015 25% in 2015
Consumers are more positive than negative about the outlook
for the US economy with 45% saying they
expect it to improve.
Positive outlook on US economy
“In your opinion, what is the overall outlook for the US
economy in the year 2017, compared with today? Would you say
it will...”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 7
82%
66% 64%
67%
71%
68%
71%
59%
41%
51%
62%
59%
63%
71% 69%
75% 74%
18%
34%
36%
33%
29%
32%
29%
41%
59%
49%
38%
42%
37%
29% 31%
25% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Spend more/same Spend less
Recession
8% 11% 10%
13% 13% 15%
19% 17%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Spend more
“How will your total holiday spending compare with last year's
holiday season? Please consider all holiday gifts, holiday
entertainment/socializing, holiday
decorations, holiday donations, etc.”
Consumers report little change in planned holiday spending
compared to last year with 74% saying they
will spend the same or more. Forecasts of “more” spending
dipped slightly from 19% to 17%.
General sentiment on spend remains stable
Compared to last holiday season…
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 8
Current household financial situation
15%
24%
21%
28% 29%
31%
33%
36%
41%
42%
37%
37%
40% 41% 41% 39%
44%
34%
42%
35% 30%
29%
26% 25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
A lot/Somewhat better The Same A lot/Somewhat worse
Since 2011, reports of improved financial fitness have risen
from 21% to 36%.
Household financial situations continue to improve
“Thinking about your household's current financial situation,
would you say it is...”
Current household financial situation is the primary determinant
of holiday spend
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 9
22.0
23.1
21.5
18.2
16.8
14.7
12.8 12.9 13.4
13.7 13.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
“In total, what is the number of gifts, including gift
certificates/cards, that you expect to buy this holiday season?”
On average, consumers plan to purchase about 14 gifts,
consistent with levels from previous years.
Little change in quantity of gifts
Number of gifts purchased
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 10
“How much do you expect you will spend during the upcoming
year-end holiday season on each of the following items?”
“Do you have a specific budget (or approximate budget range)
in mind that you plan on spending this holiday season?”
Fewer than half (46%) of consumers have a specific budget in
mind this holiday season
$395 $386 $421
$458 $487 $426
$707
$648
$733
$841
$976
$572
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gifts Non-Gifts
When considering spend at the category level, consumers
predict lower overall spend, a significant drop
from last year. The change can be attributed mostly to a
significant decrease in planned non-gift spending.
Consumers rein in non-gift spending
Holiday spend
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 11
$329
$97
$244
$122
$96 $56
$348
$212
$182
$124
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
Gifts (not
including gift
cards)
Gift cards/Gift
certificates
Socializing
away from
home (Travel,
hotels,
restaurants,
etc.)
Entertaining at
home (food,
liquor, etc.)
Non-gift
clothing for
yourself or your
family
Home, holiday
furnishings
2016
2015
Gift and non-gift spending
“How much do you think you will spend during the year-end
holiday season on each of the following items?”
Gifts Non-gifts
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 12
I will
likely
spend
more
27%
I will
likely
spend
less
44%
No
impact
29%
No
73%
yes
27%
“Will the results of this year's US Presidential election have an
impact on your holiday spending?”
“Which of the following best describes the impact this year's
U.S. Presidential election will have on your holiday spending if
the DEMOCRATIC candidate wins?”
“Which of the following best describes the impact this year's
U.S. Presidential election will have on your holiday spending if
the REPUBLICAN candidate wins?”
I will
likely
spend
more
37%
I will
likely
spend
less
43%
No
impact
20%
Only 27% of consumers say the results of the presidential
election will impact their holiday spending.
Presidential election to have little impact on holiday spending
Will the election impact your
holiday spending?
If Democrat wins… If Republican wins…
Where consumers shop
and why
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 14
48%
43%
23%
32%
44%
50%
18%
26%
20%
23%
19%
19%
14%
17%
12%
16%
11%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
“At which of the following retail sources or venues will you
likely shop for holiday gifts?”
“How many specific shopping trips do you expect to take when
purchasing holiday gifts over the next several months? (For
purposes of this question, a "trip“ is
defined as a single outing to visit one or more physical stores.)”
4.4 — average
number of
venues
consumers
expect to shop
6.3 — average
number of
shopping trips
consumers
expect to take
Traditional department stores
Toy stores
Off-price stores
Restaurants/fast-food
Home improvement stores
Specialty clothing
Internet (including auction sites)
Discount/value department stores
Continuing an upward trend, half of consumers expect to shop
for holiday gifts online this holiday season.
Multi-trip and channel shopping is a reality as consumers plan
to take over six trips and include over four
channels to make their holiday selections.
Internet runs away as #1 shopping channel
Outlet stores
Top shopping channels
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 15
All store formats impacted by online rise
“At which of these types of stores do you plan to shop this
holiday season?”
63%
53%
42%
27%
17%
12%
59%
50%
38%
24%
16%
12%
Standalone 'big
box' stores
Traditional mall Local independent
stores not in a mall
Strip mall or mini
mall
Town hall mall I do not plan to
shop at any of
these
2015 2016
Online channels will continue to take foot traffic away from all
popular store formats. Fewer holiday
shoppers plan to visit big box retailers, traditional malls, local
independent stores, strip malls and mini-
malls compared to 2015.
Store formats consumers plan to shop
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 16
Barriers to shopping in-store
50%
45%
25%
20%
19%
18%
16%
10%
6%
5%
Crowds
Long lines/slow checkout
Doesn't carry merchandise I want
Too much drive time (too far away or too much traffic)
Lack of parking
Items/sizes often out of stock
Online site indicates the product I seek is not available
in the store
Store hours inconvenient
Limited number of store associates
Store associates knowledge/ability to assist
Crowds are the top reason for not shopping in store along with
long lines and slow checkout.
Avoiding stores to avoid the crowds
“What, if anything, might prevent you from shopping in-store
this holiday season?”
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 17
69%
48%
60%
56%
Better prices Ability to see and touch
the product
To support the local
economy
To find one-of-a-kind
gifts
Why go to a
physical store?
Top motivators for venue choice
What does it take
to try a new
retailer?
Why shop local?
Seeking stores for specific advantages
Among those shopping at
new stores Among those shopping at local storesAmong total
47% of spending is expected to happen in store, the main
benefit being the ability to see and touch the
product. Better prices are key to luring shoppers into new
venues. Consumers will shop local stores
primarily to support the local economy or find one-of-a-kind
gifts.
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 18
66%
52%
24%
22%
10%
8%
Local store/business
New websites I have not visited
before
Festivals or fairs
Temporary/seasonal store or on-
location pop-up
Social marketing/home-based
businesses
Workplace vendors
Will shop
new/different
stores or online
retailers
73%
Frequent experimentation with new retailers
Types of new retailers
shoppers plan to try
“What types of new/different stores or online retailers are you
likely to try?”
Seventy-three percent plan to try new retailers, with local stores
and businesses at the top of the list.
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 19
Same
stores and
online
retailers
New/
different
stores and
online
retailers
“What percentage of all of your holiday gifts and shopping this
year will be at those same locations, and what percentage do
you think will be at new
stores or online retailers?
76%
24%
76% of holiday purchases will be made at stores or through
online retailers with which consumers are
familiar.
Still shoppers spend most where they are familiar
Share of gift purchases
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 20
77% Respondents influenced by coupons and promotions
43% Plan to use store coupons
77% of consumers intend to make a sale or promotional
purchase during the holiday season, and 1 in 3
transactions will involve a coupon or promotion.
Watching the Bottom Line
33% Transactions involving coupons and promotions
56% Go online to find better prices, coupons, deals, etc.
“What percentage of your total holiday purchases will be
influenced by any coupons and promotional offers that you
receive?”
“Which of the following will you do this holiday season?”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 21
40% I know things are going to eventually go on sale so I’ll
only buy sale items when holiday shopping
30% I get the best deals if I shop early in the holiday season
27% I get the best deals if I shop late in the holiday season
Four in 10 wait to purchase items when they go on sale.
Consumers are split on when they expect to find
the best deals of the season.
Ambivalence on timing of the best deals
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how
much you agree with each of the
following statements.”
30% I am waiting for holiday sales this year to buy other larger
or big ticket items I was going to buy anyway
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 22
Gift cards (40%), electronics
(40%) and cash (40%) rank
No. 1 as the gifts respondents
wish to receive
Top gifts consumers plan to buy
48%
50%
45%
48%
39%
36%
29% 31%
27%
32%
35% 34%
25% 26%
18%
22%
16%
21%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Clothing
Gift cards or gift certificates
Electronics (net)*
Books
Games, Toys, Dolls, etc.
Food/Liquor
Money (Cash or check)
Jewelry
Clothing and gift cards remain the most popular gifts people
plan to purchase. Gift cards, electronics and
cash are the categories people most wish to receive. Most gift
categories are consistent with past years,
however, food/liquor and jewelry have trended upward – in
keeping with household finances – since 2011.
Clothing and gift cards still top the purchase list
Cosmetics/fragrances/
health & beauty aids
“Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this
holiday season? And which of the following gifts would you
like to receive this holiday season?”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 23
37%
32%
25%
24%
23%
22%
22%
19%
19%
18%
18%
16%
15%
11%
Wine or beer
Magazines
Gourmet food or snacks
Health and Beauty products
Clothing or shoes
Books
Coffee /tea
Hobbies/collectibles/personal interests
Meal prep/ meal delivery/meal kits
Flowers/plants
Perfume or cologne
Cheese
Personal grooming products (razors, etc.)
Hot sauce / condiments
7%
Plan to buy
subscription
products or
services
Subscription service types
Only 7% plan to buy a subscription service as a gift (6% in
2015), the most popular being wine or beer
and magazines.
Subscription services rarely make the gift list
“Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this
holiday season?
You mentioned you plan on purchasing subscription products or
services this holiday season. Which of the following products or
services do you plan on giving as a
subscription-based gift?
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 24
27% Prefer to buy gifts that are an experience (e.g.,
concert/show, vacation, restaurant, etc.)
26% Plan host or attend more holiday events with friends or
family in lieu of traditional gift exchange
Over a quarter prefer gifting experiences and a similar
percentage plan to host or attend more holiday
events instead of exchanging gifts.
Notable interest in gifting “experiences”
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how
much you agree with each of the
following statements.”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 25
Give
indulgent
gifts
52% Prefer to buy indulgences that people will not buy for
themselves
Also buy gifts for themselves when
shopping for others
36%
40%
43%
50%
46%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nearly half say they will purchase for themselves while
shopping for others, only slightly less than last
year. More than half prefer to spoil others with gifts recipients
would not buy for themselves.
Holidays are a time for indulgence
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how
much you agree with each of the
following statements.”
Digital impact on
holiday shopping
Deloitte 2016 Holiday StudyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte
Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27
“What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to
spend…?”
Online spending matches spending in store
40% 44%
47%
52%
50% 47%
8% 6% 6%
2014 2015 2016
Holiday budget allocation by channel
35% PC
7% Smartphone
5% Tablet
Shoppers anticipate spending more online this season than in
previous years. In fact, for the first time in
the history of the survey, consumers plan to spend just as much
online as they will in stores.
Other
In store
Online
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 28
Showroom
… first go to a store to look for an item,
then search online for the best price, and
then purchase online
50%
Webroom
… first look at items online, then go
to a store to see the item, then
make purchase in store
66%
Percentages combine those respondents who selected answer
choices “very likely” and “somewhat likely.”
“How likely will you be this holiday season to … ”
Buy online pick up in store
… buy a product online and then
instead of having it shipped to you,
go to the store to pick up the item
43%
Two-thirds will first look online and then purchase in store; half
will do the reverse. Slightly less than half
will order online and then pick up in store.
Many blend in-store and online shopping to optimize experience
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 292016 Holiday
SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights
reserved.
3%3%
37%
58%
Stick with same retailer
(another store location
or website)
(loyal)
Buy from another
retailer
(not loyal)
Would not continue shopping for product
Would not shop in person 4%
4%
77%
15%
Buy from another
retailer’s store or
website (not loyal)
Visit the store in person
(loyal)
Would not continue shopping for product
Shoppers less loyal online
Would not shop online
“If you were to shop [in a store/on a store’s website] for a
specific product during the holiday season and the product
wasn't available, which of the following would you
most likely do first?”
In store Online
What holiday shoppers do when retailers run out of stock
When shopping a physical store, consumers are likely to remain
loyal to the merchant even when product
is out of stock. They are more likely to look elsewhere for
product when they can’t find what they are
looking for on a retailer website.
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 30
14%
39%
17%
19%
11%
Never
For Some Items
For Many Items
For Most Items
For All Items
Research online before
purchasing in a physical store
86% of consumers report conducting online research before
shopping in physical stores. Most cited are
customer reviews on retailer websites followed by
recommendations from people consumers know and
customer reviews on independent websites.
Vast majority do online research before shopping in store
66%
56%
55%
18%
9%
Customer reviews on
retailer website
Reviews/recommendations
from people I know
Customer reviews on
independent website
Retailer
reviews/recommendations
Reviews are not important
to me
Important types of reviews
(Among those researching online)
“Please indicate the level of online research you intend to do
before making your Holiday purchases:”
“While researching online, which type of reviews are important
to you?”
86%
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 31
In Store
On specific
items you
planned to
buy
54%
On items
within a
specific
planned
category
29%
On
completely
unplanned
purchases
18%
Whether shopping in store or online, consumers most often
purchase specific items for which they have
planned. Less than 20% of purchases are completely unplanned,
limiting the opportunity for merchants
to inspire at point of sale.
Shoppers plan; few holiday purchases are spontaneous
Online
On specific
items you
planned to
buy
56%
On items
within a
specific
planned
category
27%
On
completely
unplanned
purchases
17%
“If you had to estimate based on the way you shop for the
holidays when [in physical stores/online], what percentage of
purchases do you make…? ”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 32
44%
38% Prefer shopping in the physical store rather than online
Prefer shopping online rather than in the physical store
31% Value the option of both a physical store and an online site
Preference between online and physical store is split with 44%
liking an online experience and 38%
preferring in-store. 3 in 10 say it is important that the retailers
they shop have both a physical and online
presence.
Split preference for online versus in-store experience
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how
much you agree with each of the
following statements.”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 33
50%
61%
67%
77%
83%
Own smartphone
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
38%
50%
56%
61%
Own tablet
2013 2014 2015 2016
Use smartphone
for holiday
shopping
78% Use tablet for
holiday shopping
66%
Smartphone ownership is now at 83%, up from 67% just two
years ago. Six in ten own a tablet, also up
significantly from 2014 (50%). Most will use these devices to
assist in holiday shopping.
Majority use mobile devices for holiday shopping
“Do you own a smartphone?”
“Do you own a tablet?”
“In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use the
following device or devices to assist you in your holiday
shopping?”
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 342016 Holiday
SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights
reserved.
29%
36%
37%
43%
47%
49%
50%
51%
56%
57%
61%
Scan product barcodes to find more
product information
Get text messages or exclusive deals
from retailers
Access social networks
Make a purchase
Check product availability in a store or
website
Get/use discounts, coupons, sales
information
Get product information
Read reviews
Shop/browse online
Check/compare prices
Get store locations
18%
26%
34%
37%
37%
50%
55%
56%
57%
59%
69%
Accumulate loyalty points,
“badges,” etc.
Send/redeem gift cards
Get/use discounts, coupons, sales
information
Get store locations
Access social networks
Check product availability in a
store or website
Make a purchase
Check/compare prices
Get product information
Read reviews
Shop/browse online
Smartphone Tablet
Location-based services
Consumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping assistants
50% in 2015
46% in 2015
45% in 2015
(Among the 83% who own a smartphone) (Among the 61% who
own a tablet)
“In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use the
following device or devices to assist you in your holiday
shopping?”
Smartphones will be an indispensable tool this holiday season.
Nearly 8 in 10 anticipate using their smartphone for
holiday shopping. Sixty-one percent of smartphone owners will
use their devices to get store locations, with many
others using their devices to compare prices (57%), get product
information (50%) and read reviews (51%) on the go.
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 352016 Holiday
SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights
reserved.
Mobile payment type
(Among the 83% who own a smartphone)
25%
22%
19%
14%
13%
Pay a retailer using the retailer's mobile app
Pay a retailer on the retailer's website
Pay other people using a mobile payment app
Pay for services like transportation with an app
Pay for in-store purchases using a mobile wallet
Mobile purchases rise with retail apps getting most traction
“What types of payments do you make with your smartphone?”
35% 43%
Plan to make mobile purchases this holiday season
(Among the 83% who own a smartphone)
2014 2016
Retail apps lead the mobile payment category, but the mobile
web is not too far behind. Significantly fewer
shoppers plan to use mobile wallet services at the counter.
Retailer policies and
practices
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 37
71%
48%
44%
32%
31%
14%
Free shipping
Easy returns
Price matching
Extended holiday hours (open early/close
late)
Discounts on expedited shipping
Free layaway
55% in 2015
51% in 2015
7 in 10 say they will take advantage of free shipping this
holiday season. The importance of easy returns
and price matching declines from last year.
Free shipping tops list of desired retailer offerings
Will Take Advantage of…
“In general, what retail offerings will you take advantage of
when spending this holiday season?”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 38
67%
55%
43%
28%
9%
Has refund options other
than store credit
Allows longer return
window
No receipt required
Allow returns with scan
of identification
Returns policy is not
important
82%
69%
61%
54%
10%
Free online returns
Can return product you buy
online to a physical store
Has refund options other
than store/site credit
Allows longer return window
Returns policy is not
important
For purchases made in physical stores, consumers most desire to
have refund options other than store
credit. For items purchased online, they desire free return
shipping, the option to return product to a
physical store and refund options other than store credit.
Shoppers desire favorable return policies
“When holiday shopping in a physical store, which of these
return policies do you find most desirable?”
“When holiday shopping online, which of these return policies
are most important to you?”
In store Online
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 39
Increasing expectations for “fast” shipping
“Which of the following would you consider to be ‘fast
shipping’ and which would you not consider to be ‘fast
shipping’?
96% 96%
92%
63%
18%
10%
97% 95%
89%
42%
10% 5%
Same day Next day Within 2 days Within 3-4 days Within 5-7
days Within 1-2
weeks
2015
2016
Fast Shipping
2016
Fast Shipping
2015
What do you consider to be fast shipping?
Consumer expectations of retail policies continue to rise,
particularly around shipping. Unlike last holiday
season, shoppers no longer consider 3-4 day shipping to be
“fast.” For most, shipping within 2 days or less
fits the description.
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 40
$4.8
$3.2
$1.5
$0.5
On average, would pay an extra…
Would pay nothing
extra for this
32% 38% 64% 88%
Think they could
order sometime after
December 17th and
still get free shipping
64%
-$0.30 from 2015
-$0.80 from 2015
-$0.90 from 2015
-$0.60
from 2015
Almost two thirds of holiday shoppers think they should be able
to order a gift sometime after December
17th and still get free shipping in time for the holiday.
Shoppers also expect to pay less for fast shipping,
assigning only $5 of value to same day delivery.
Decreasing willingness to pay for shipping
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved.
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 41
Concern about
data breaches
7%
47%
33%
11%
I would never shop that retailer
again
I would shop again if the retailer
took action to regain my trust
I would continue to shop the
retailer but change my method of
payment
No impact on my shopping
behavior
Not too
concerned
about
shopping at
retailers
that have
experienced
data
breaches
27%
Not too
concerned about
a single data
breach, but
concerned about
two or more data
breaches
39%
Concerned
about a
single data
breach
34%
Impact on
shopping behavior
Almost three-quarters are concerned when a retailer has one or
multiple data breaches, however only 7%
would never shop at the retailer again. Most would return if the
retailer takes action to regain trust;
some will just change their payment method.
Data breaches are a setback but consumers forgive
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved.
When consumers plan
to shop
Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 43
4% 5%
14%
9%
6%
18%
40%
3%
Have already
done the
majority
October Early
November
Black Friday Cyber Monday Late November December January
When do you expect to do the majority of your holiday
shopping?
Mid: Thanksgiving to end of
November
Late: December
and January
Early: Before
Thanksgiving
T
h
an
ksg
ivin
g
23% 43%
Shopping still skews late in the season
Only 23% do the majority of their Christmas shopping prior to
Thanksgiving. Most pack shopping into the
traditional post-Thanksgiving time period, which peaks in
December.
34%
17% of households
plan to do some
holiday shopping
after Christmas Day
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved.
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 44
Greater
percentage
11%
No difference
71%
Lesser
percentage
17%
Greater
percentage
13%
No difference
74%
Lesser
percentage
13%
47%
52% 52%
2014 2015 2016
36%
41% 42%
2014 2015 2016
On average, consumers expect to rely on Black Friday and
Cyber Monday about the same as they did in
recent seasons. Over half report that they don’t rely on Black
Friday as much as they used to and just over
4 in 10 don’t rely on Cyber Monday as much, both similar to
last year.
Little change in reliance on the major shopping days
Black Friday Cyber Monday
Compared to past
holiday seasons,
expect shopping on
this day to account
for…
Don’t rely on as much
as I used to…
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved.
“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how
much you agree with each of the
following statements.”
“Compared to past holiday seasons, do you expect any [Black
Friday /Cyber Monday] shopping you do this holiday season to
account for...?”
2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
LLC. All rights reserved. 45
About the survey
This survey was commissioned by Deloitte
and conducted online by an independent
research company between September 6-20,
2016.
It polled a national sample of 5,038
consumers and has a margin of error for the
entire sample of plus or minus one to two
percentage points.
As used in this document, “Deloitte” refers to Deloitte LLP.
Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description
of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.
Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the
rules and regulations of public accounting.
http://www.deloitte.com/us/aboutSlide Number 1ContentsSlide
Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Positive outlook on US
economyGeneral sentiment on spend remains stableHousehold
financial situations continue to improveLittle change in quantity
of giftsConsumers rein in non-gift spendingGift and non-gift
spending��Presidential election to have little impact on
holiday spendingSlide Number 13Internet runs away as #1
shopping channelAll store formats impacted by online
riseAvoiding stores to avoid the crowdsSeeking stores for
specific advantagesFrequent experimentation with new
retailersStill shoppers spend most where they are
familiarWatching the Bottom LineAmbivalence on timing of the
best dealsClothing and gift cards still top the purchase
listSubscription services rarely make the gift listNotable
interest in gifting “experiences”Holidays are a time for
indulgenceSlide Number 26Online spending matches spending
in storeMany blend in-store and online shopping to optimize
experience� Shoppers less loyal onlineVast majority do online
research before shopping in storeShoppers plan; few holiday
purchases are spontaneousSplit preference for online versus in-
store experienceMajority use mobile devices for holiday
shoppingConsumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping
assistantsMobile purchases rise with retail apps getting most
tractionSlide Number 36Free shipping tops list of desired
retailer offeringsShoppers desire favorable return
policiesIncreasing expectations for “fast” shippingSlide Number
40Data breaches are a setback but consumers forgiveSlide
Number 42Slide Number 43Little change in reliance on the
major shopping daysAbout the survey

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2016 Holiday SurveyRinging in the retail 2016 Holida.docx

  • 1. 2016 Holiday Survey Ringing in the retail 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2 Contents Economic outlook and spending 5 Where consumers shop and why 13 Digital impact on holiday shopping 26 Retailer policies and practices 36 When consumers plan to shop 42 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3 Consumers generally upbeat about economy, but many plan to rein in non-gift holiday spending Consumers surveyed remain positive about the US economy and continue to report improved personal financial situations. Expect gift spending to be comparable to the 2015 season, with shoppers planning to
  • 2. spend roughly $430. Many, however, plan to rein in the non-gift spending, including holiday travel and expenses tied to social events. Only 27% of respondents say that the upcoming presidential election will impact their holiday spending. Online channels set to make holiday history More consumers plan to shop online this holiday season than ever before. Half plan to shop online, significantly more than those who plan to visit popular store destinations such as discount department stores (43%), traditional department stores (32%) and outlet stores (26%). More importantly, shoppers anticipate spending more online too. In fact, for the first time this holiday season, consumers plan to spend just as much online as they will in stores. Online to steal foot traffic from all popular shopping venues Online channels will continue to take foot traffic away from all popular store formats. Fewer holiday shoppers plan to visit “big box’ retailers, traditional malls, local independent stores, strip malls and mini- malls compared to 2015. Consumers continue to seek out stores for a complete experience While digital will influence the lion’s share of holiday purchases this season, shoppers will continue to blend both online and offline channels to optimize the shopping experience and procure the right gifts on the best possible terms. Two thirds of respondents will shop
  • 3. online and then purchase in store (webrooming); half will shop in store and then buy online (showrooming); and more than 4 in 10 will take advantage of buy online, pick up in store offers. Shoppers will seek out physical stores for their distinct advantages, namely the ability to see and touch product (48%). In a fragmenting marketplace, consumers experiment with non- traditional venues Almost three quarters of consumers surveyed report that they will try “new or different” retailers this year, most often local independent stores and new web retailers. More than one quarter will gift experiences in lieu of gifts. While shoppers expect a majority of their spend to go to merchants with whom they are already familiar, this high level of experimentation is noteworthy. Holiday highlights 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4 Retailers will feel the “Prime effect” Consumer expectations of retail policies continue to rise – particularly when it comes shipping. Unlike last holiday season, shoppers no longer consider 3-4 day shipping to be “fast,” and they expect to pay less for same day, next day and 2-3 shipping than they did last year. Almost two
  • 4. thirds of holiday shoppers surveyed think they should be able to order a gift sometime after December 17th and still get free delivery by the 24th. PCs still dominate online spending, with retail apps winning the mobile payment category While consumers plan to make the overwhelming majority of their online purchases with their desktops and laptops, mobile spenders are on the rise. Forty-three percent of smartphone owners plan to make at least one mobile purchase this holiday season, up from 35% in 2014. Retail apps lead the mobile payment category, but the mobile web is not too far behind. Significantly fewer shoppers plan to use mobile wallet services at the counter. Consumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping assistants Smartphones will be an indispensable tool this holiday season. Nearly 8 in 10 respondents anticipate using their smartphone for holiday shopping. Sixty-one percent of smartphone owners will use their devices to get store locations, with many others using their devices to compare prices (57%), get product information (50%) and read reviews (51%) on the go. Clothing and gift cards remain top gift ideas, and most shoppers will seek items on sale Relatively unchanged from past holiday seasons, clothes (50%) and gift cards (48%) remain the most popular gifts. A little over one third (36%)
  • 5. plan to purchase electronics, including computers, mobile devices, home electronics items, wearable technology and gaming consoles. On average, shoppers plan to purchase about 14 gifts. Sales and deals are always important for shoppers but can be particularly influential during the holiday season when cash is tight and consumers are looking to cut corners. An estimated 33% of gift purchases will be made on sale or promotion, and 77% of consumers will take advantage of sales at some point in the holiday season. Data privacy is top of mind, but consumers will forgive data breaches Nearly 3 in 4 shoppers are concerned about data privacy to some degree – but, overall, data privacy issues will have little impact on what consumers purchase and where they choose to buy. If a retailer experiences one or more data breaches, consumers are likely to be empathetic, and shop with the brand again if the retailer takes appropriate measures to regain their trust. Holiday highlights Economic outlook and spending 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6
  • 6. 6% 38% 33% 15% 7% Improve significantly Improve modestly Remain the same Weaken modestly Weaken significantly US economy will… 45% 22% “Weaken”“Improve” 42% in 2015 25% in 2015 Consumers are more positive than negative about the outlook for the US economy with 45% saying they expect it to improve.
  • 7. Positive outlook on US economy “In your opinion, what is the overall outlook for the US economy in the year 2017, compared with today? Would you say it will...” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7 82% 66% 64% 67% 71% 68% 71% 59% 41% 51% 62% 59% 63% 71% 69% 75% 74%
  • 9. 60% 70% 80% 90% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spend more/same Spend less Recession 8% 11% 10% 13% 13% 15% 19% 17% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spend more “How will your total holiday spending compare with last year's holiday season? Please consider all holiday gifts, holiday entertainment/socializing, holiday decorations, holiday donations, etc.” Consumers report little change in planned holiday spending compared to last year with 74% saying they will spend the same or more. Forecasts of “more” spending dipped slightly from 19% to 17%. General sentiment on spend remains stable
  • 10. Compared to last holiday season… 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 8 Current household financial situation 15% 24% 21% 28% 29% 31% 33% 36% 41% 42% 37% 37% 40% 41% 41% 39% 44% 34% 42%
  • 11. 35% 30% 29% 26% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 A lot/Somewhat better The Same A lot/Somewhat worse Since 2011, reports of improved financial fitness have risen from 21% to 36%. Household financial situations continue to improve
  • 12. “Thinking about your household's current financial situation, would you say it is...” Current household financial situation is the primary determinant of holiday spend 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9 22.0 23.1 21.5 18.2 16.8 14.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.7 13.9 0 5 10 15 20 25
  • 13. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 “In total, what is the number of gifts, including gift certificates/cards, that you expect to buy this holiday season?” On average, consumers plan to purchase about 14 gifts, consistent with levels from previous years. Little change in quantity of gifts Number of gifts purchased 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10 “How much do you expect you will spend during the upcoming year-end holiday season on each of the following items?” “Do you have a specific budget (or approximate budget range) in mind that you plan on spending this holiday season?” Fewer than half (46%) of consumers have a specific budget in mind this holiday season $395 $386 $421 $458 $487 $426 $707 $648 $733 $841
  • 14. $976 $572 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gifts Non-Gifts When considering spend at the category level, consumers predict lower overall spend, a significant drop from last year. The change can be attributed mostly to a significant decrease in planned non-gift spending. Consumers rein in non-gift spending Holiday spend 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11
  • 16. Socializing away from home (Travel, hotels, restaurants, etc.) Entertaining at home (food, liquor, etc.) Non-gift clothing for yourself or your family Home, holiday furnishings 2016 2015 Gift and non-gift spending “How much do you think you will spend during the year-end holiday season on each of the following items?” Gifts Non-gifts 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development
  • 17. LLC. All rights reserved. 12 I will likely spend more 27% I will likely spend less 44% No impact 29% No 73% yes 27% “Will the results of this year's US Presidential election have an impact on your holiday spending?” “Which of the following best describes the impact this year's U.S. Presidential election will have on your holiday spending if the DEMOCRATIC candidate wins?” “Which of the following best describes the impact this year's U.S. Presidential election will have on your holiday spending if the REPUBLICAN candidate wins?” I will likely spend
  • 18. more 37% I will likely spend less 43% No impact 20% Only 27% of consumers say the results of the presidential election will impact their holiday spending. Presidential election to have little impact on holiday spending Will the election impact your holiday spending? If Democrat wins… If Republican wins… Where consumers shop and why 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14 48% 43%
  • 19. 23% 32% 44% 50% 18% 26% 20% 23% 19% 19% 14% 17% 12% 16% 11% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 “At which of the following retail sources or venues will you likely shop for holiday gifts?” “How many specific shopping trips do you expect to take when purchasing holiday gifts over the next several months? (For purposes of this question, a "trip“ is defined as a single outing to visit one or more physical stores.)”
  • 20. 4.4 — average number of venues consumers expect to shop 6.3 — average number of shopping trips consumers expect to take Traditional department stores Toy stores Off-price stores Restaurants/fast-food Home improvement stores Specialty clothing Internet (including auction sites) Discount/value department stores Continuing an upward trend, half of consumers expect to shop for holiday gifts online this holiday season. Multi-trip and channel shopping is a reality as consumers plan to take over six trips and include over four channels to make their holiday selections. Internet runs away as #1 shopping channel Outlet stores
  • 21. Top shopping channels 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15 All store formats impacted by online rise “At which of these types of stores do you plan to shop this holiday season?” 63% 53% 42% 27% 17% 12% 59% 50% 38% 24% 16% 12%
  • 22. Standalone 'big box' stores Traditional mall Local independent stores not in a mall Strip mall or mini mall Town hall mall I do not plan to shop at any of these 2015 2016 Online channels will continue to take foot traffic away from all popular store formats. Fewer holiday shoppers plan to visit big box retailers, traditional malls, local independent stores, strip malls and mini- malls compared to 2015. Store formats consumers plan to shop 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16 Barriers to shopping in-store 50% 45% 25%
  • 23. 20% 19% 18% 16% 10% 6% 5% Crowds Long lines/slow checkout Doesn't carry merchandise I want Too much drive time (too far away or too much traffic) Lack of parking Items/sizes often out of stock Online site indicates the product I seek is not available in the store Store hours inconvenient Limited number of store associates Store associates knowledge/ability to assist
  • 24. Crowds are the top reason for not shopping in store along with long lines and slow checkout. Avoiding stores to avoid the crowds “What, if anything, might prevent you from shopping in-store this holiday season?” Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 17 69% 48% 60% 56% Better prices Ability to see and touch the product To support the local economy To find one-of-a-kind gifts Why go to a physical store? Top motivators for venue choice What does it take to try a new
  • 25. retailer? Why shop local? Seeking stores for specific advantages Among those shopping at new stores Among those shopping at local storesAmong total 47% of spending is expected to happen in store, the main benefit being the ability to see and touch the product. Better prices are key to luring shoppers into new venues. Consumers will shop local stores primarily to support the local economy or find one-of-a-kind gifts. Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 18 66% 52% 24% 22% 10% 8% Local store/business New websites I have not visited before
  • 26. Festivals or fairs Temporary/seasonal store or on- location pop-up Social marketing/home-based businesses Workplace vendors Will shop new/different stores or online retailers 73% Frequent experimentation with new retailers Types of new retailers shoppers plan to try “What types of new/different stores or online retailers are you likely to try?” Seventy-three percent plan to try new retailers, with local stores and businesses at the top of the list. 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 19 Same stores and
  • 27. online retailers New/ different stores and online retailers “What percentage of all of your holiday gifts and shopping this year will be at those same locations, and what percentage do you think will be at new stores or online retailers? 76% 24% 76% of holiday purchases will be made at stores or through online retailers with which consumers are familiar. Still shoppers spend most where they are familiar Share of gift purchases 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 20 77% Respondents influenced by coupons and promotions
  • 28. 43% Plan to use store coupons 77% of consumers intend to make a sale or promotional purchase during the holiday season, and 1 in 3 transactions will involve a coupon or promotion. Watching the Bottom Line 33% Transactions involving coupons and promotions 56% Go online to find better prices, coupons, deals, etc. “What percentage of your total holiday purchases will be influenced by any coupons and promotional offers that you receive?” “Which of the following will you do this holiday season?” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 21 40% I know things are going to eventually go on sale so I’ll only buy sale items when holiday shopping 30% I get the best deals if I shop early in the holiday season 27% I get the best deals if I shop late in the holiday season Four in 10 wait to purchase items when they go on sale. Consumers are split on when they expect to find the best deals of the season. Ambivalence on timing of the best deals “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much
  • 29. disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” 30% I am waiting for holiday sales this year to buy other larger or big ticket items I was going to buy anyway 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 22 Gift cards (40%), electronics (40%) and cash (40%) rank No. 1 as the gifts respondents wish to receive Top gifts consumers plan to buy 48% 50% 45% 48% 39% 36% 29% 31% 27% 32%
  • 30. 35% 34% 25% 26% 18% 22% 16% 21% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Clothing Gift cards or gift certificates Electronics (net)* Books Games, Toys, Dolls, etc. Food/Liquor Money (Cash or check) Jewelry Clothing and gift cards remain the most popular gifts people plan to purchase. Gift cards, electronics and cash are the categories people most wish to receive. Most gift categories are consistent with past years, however, food/liquor and jewelry have trended upward – in keeping with household finances – since 2011.
  • 31. Clothing and gift cards still top the purchase list Cosmetics/fragrances/ health & beauty aids “Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this holiday season? And which of the following gifts would you like to receive this holiday season?” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23 37% 32% 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 19% 19% 18% 18%
  • 32. 16% 15% 11% Wine or beer Magazines Gourmet food or snacks Health and Beauty products Clothing or shoes Books Coffee /tea Hobbies/collectibles/personal interests Meal prep/ meal delivery/meal kits Flowers/plants Perfume or cologne Cheese Personal grooming products (razors, etc.) Hot sauce / condiments 7%
  • 33. Plan to buy subscription products or services Subscription service types Only 7% plan to buy a subscription service as a gift (6% in 2015), the most popular being wine or beer and magazines. Subscription services rarely make the gift list “Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this holiday season? You mentioned you plan on purchasing subscription products or services this holiday season. Which of the following products or services do you plan on giving as a subscription-based gift? 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 24 27% Prefer to buy gifts that are an experience (e.g., concert/show, vacation, restaurant, etc.) 26% Plan host or attend more holiday events with friends or family in lieu of traditional gift exchange Over a quarter prefer gifting experiences and a similar percentage plan to host or attend more holiday events instead of exchanging gifts. Notable interest in gifting “experiences”
  • 34. “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 25 Give indulgent gifts 52% Prefer to buy indulgences that people will not buy for themselves Also buy gifts for themselves when shopping for others 36% 40% 43% 50% 46% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nearly half say they will purchase for themselves while shopping for others, only slightly less than last year. More than half prefer to spoil others with gifts recipients would not buy for themselves.
  • 35. Holidays are a time for indulgence “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” Digital impact on holiday shopping Deloitte 2016 Holiday StudyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27 “What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to spend…?” Online spending matches spending in store 40% 44% 47% 52% 50% 47% 8% 6% 6% 2014 2015 2016 Holiday budget allocation by channel 35% PC 7% Smartphone
  • 36. 5% Tablet Shoppers anticipate spending more online this season than in previous years. In fact, for the first time in the history of the survey, consumers plan to spend just as much online as they will in stores. Other In store Online 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 28 Showroom … first go to a store to look for an item, then search online for the best price, and then purchase online 50% Webroom … first look at items online, then go to a store to see the item, then make purchase in store 66%
  • 37. Percentages combine those respondents who selected answer choices “very likely” and “somewhat likely.” “How likely will you be this holiday season to … ” Buy online pick up in store … buy a product online and then instead of having it shipped to you, go to the store to pick up the item 43% Two-thirds will first look online and then purchase in store; half will do the reverse. Slightly less than half will order online and then pick up in store. Many blend in-store and online shopping to optimize experience Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 292016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3%3% 37% 58% Stick with same retailer (another store location or website) (loyal)
  • 38. Buy from another retailer (not loyal) Would not continue shopping for product Would not shop in person 4% 4% 77% 15% Buy from another retailer’s store or website (not loyal) Visit the store in person (loyal) Would not continue shopping for product Shoppers less loyal online Would not shop online “If you were to shop [in a store/on a store’s website] for a specific product during the holiday season and the product wasn't available, which of the following would you most likely do first?” In store Online
  • 39. What holiday shoppers do when retailers run out of stock When shopping a physical store, consumers are likely to remain loyal to the merchant even when product is out of stock. They are more likely to look elsewhere for product when they can’t find what they are looking for on a retailer website. 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 30 14% 39% 17% 19% 11% Never For Some Items For Many Items For Most Items For All Items Research online before purchasing in a physical store
  • 40. 86% of consumers report conducting online research before shopping in physical stores. Most cited are customer reviews on retailer websites followed by recommendations from people consumers know and customer reviews on independent websites. Vast majority do online research before shopping in store 66% 56% 55% 18% 9% Customer reviews on retailer website Reviews/recommendations from people I know Customer reviews on independent website Retailer reviews/recommendations Reviews are not important to me Important types of reviews (Among those researching online)
  • 41. “Please indicate the level of online research you intend to do before making your Holiday purchases:” “While researching online, which type of reviews are important to you?” 86% 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 31 In Store On specific items you planned to buy 54% On items within a specific planned category 29% On completely unplanned purchases 18%
  • 42. Whether shopping in store or online, consumers most often purchase specific items for which they have planned. Less than 20% of purchases are completely unplanned, limiting the opportunity for merchants to inspire at point of sale. Shoppers plan; few holiday purchases are spontaneous Online On specific items you planned to buy 56% On items within a specific planned category 27% On completely unplanned purchases 17% “If you had to estimate based on the way you shop for the holidays when [in physical stores/online], what percentage of purchases do you make…? ”
  • 43. 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 32 44% 38% Prefer shopping in the physical store rather than online Prefer shopping online rather than in the physical store 31% Value the option of both a physical store and an online site Preference between online and physical store is split with 44% liking an online experience and 38% preferring in-store. 3 in 10 say it is important that the retailers they shop have both a physical and online presence. Split preference for online versus in-store experience “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 33 50% 61% 67% 77%
  • 44. 83% Own smartphone 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 38% 50% 56% 61% Own tablet 2013 2014 2015 2016 Use smartphone for holiday shopping 78% Use tablet for holiday shopping 66% Smartphone ownership is now at 83%, up from 67% just two years ago. Six in ten own a tablet, also up significantly from 2014 (50%). Most will use these devices to assist in holiday shopping. Majority use mobile devices for holiday shopping “Do you own a smartphone?” “Do you own a tablet?” “In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use the
  • 45. following device or devices to assist you in your holiday shopping?” Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 342016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 29% 36% 37% 43% 47% 49% 50% 51% 56% 57% 61% Scan product barcodes to find more product information Get text messages or exclusive deals from retailers
  • 46. Access social networks Make a purchase Check product availability in a store or website Get/use discounts, coupons, sales information Get product information Read reviews Shop/browse online Check/compare prices Get store locations 18% 26% 34% 37% 37% 50% 55% 56%
  • 47. 57% 59% 69% Accumulate loyalty points, “badges,” etc. Send/redeem gift cards Get/use discounts, coupons, sales information Get store locations Access social networks Check product availability in a store or website Make a purchase Check/compare prices Get product information Read reviews Shop/browse online Smartphone Tablet Location-based services
  • 48. Consumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping assistants 50% in 2015 46% in 2015 45% in 2015 (Among the 83% who own a smartphone) (Among the 61% who own a tablet) “In which of the following ways, if any, do you plan to use the following device or devices to assist you in your holiday shopping?” Smartphones will be an indispensable tool this holiday season. Nearly 8 in 10 anticipate using their smartphone for holiday shopping. Sixty-one percent of smartphone owners will use their devices to get store locations, with many others using their devices to compare prices (57%), get product information (50%) and read reviews (51%) on the go. Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 352016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Mobile payment type (Among the 83% who own a smartphone) 25% 22% 19%
  • 49. 14% 13% Pay a retailer using the retailer's mobile app Pay a retailer on the retailer's website Pay other people using a mobile payment app Pay for services like transportation with an app Pay for in-store purchases using a mobile wallet Mobile purchases rise with retail apps getting most traction “What types of payments do you make with your smartphone?” 35% 43% Plan to make mobile purchases this holiday season (Among the 83% who own a smartphone) 2014 2016 Retail apps lead the mobile payment category, but the mobile web is not too far behind. Significantly fewer shoppers plan to use mobile wallet services at the counter. Retailer policies and practices
  • 50. 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 37 71% 48% 44% 32% 31% 14% Free shipping Easy returns Price matching Extended holiday hours (open early/close late) Discounts on expedited shipping Free layaway 55% in 2015 51% in 2015 7 in 10 say they will take advantage of free shipping this holiday season. The importance of easy returns and price matching declines from last year.
  • 51. Free shipping tops list of desired retailer offerings Will Take Advantage of… “In general, what retail offerings will you take advantage of when spending this holiday season?” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 38 67% 55% 43% 28% 9% Has refund options other than store credit Allows longer return window No receipt required Allow returns with scan of identification Returns policy is not important
  • 52. 82% 69% 61% 54% 10% Free online returns Can return product you buy online to a physical store Has refund options other than store/site credit Allows longer return window Returns policy is not important For purchases made in physical stores, consumers most desire to have refund options other than store credit. For items purchased online, they desire free return shipping, the option to return product to a physical store and refund options other than store credit. Shoppers desire favorable return policies “When holiday shopping in a physical store, which of these return policies do you find most desirable?” “When holiday shopping online, which of these return policies are most important to you?”
  • 53. In store Online 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 39 Increasing expectations for “fast” shipping “Which of the following would you consider to be ‘fast shipping’ and which would you not consider to be ‘fast shipping’? 96% 96% 92% 63% 18% 10% 97% 95% 89% 42% 10% 5% Same day Next day Within 2 days Within 3-4 days Within 5-7 days Within 1-2 weeks 2015 2016
  • 54. Fast Shipping 2016 Fast Shipping 2015 What do you consider to be fast shipping? Consumer expectations of retail policies continue to rise, particularly around shipping. Unlike last holiday season, shoppers no longer consider 3-4 day shipping to be “fast.” For most, shipping within 2 days or less fits the description. Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 40 $4.8 $3.2 $1.5 $0.5 On average, would pay an extra… Would pay nothing extra for this 32% 38% 64% 88% Think they could order sometime after December 17th and still get free shipping
  • 55. 64% -$0.30 from 2015 -$0.80 from 2015 -$0.90 from 2015 -$0.60 from 2015 Almost two thirds of holiday shoppers think they should be able to order a gift sometime after December 17th and still get free shipping in time for the holiday. Shoppers also expect to pay less for fast shipping, assigning only $5 of value to same day delivery. Decreasing willingness to pay for shipping 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 41 Concern about data breaches 7% 47% 33% 11%
  • 56. I would never shop that retailer again I would shop again if the retailer took action to regain my trust I would continue to shop the retailer but change my method of payment No impact on my shopping behavior Not too concerned about shopping at retailers that have experienced data breaches 27% Not too concerned about a single data breach, but
  • 57. concerned about two or more data breaches 39% Concerned about a single data breach 34% Impact on shopping behavior Almost three-quarters are concerned when a retailer has one or multiple data breaches, however only 7% would never shop at the retailer again. Most would return if the retailer takes action to regain trust; some will just change their payment method. Data breaches are a setback but consumers forgive 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. When consumers plan to shop Source: Deloitte 2016 holiday survey. 43
  • 58. 4% 5% 14% 9% 6% 18% 40% 3% Have already done the majority October Early November Black Friday Cyber Monday Late November December January When do you expect to do the majority of your holiday shopping? Mid: Thanksgiving to end of November Late: December and January Early: Before Thanksgiving T h
  • 59. an ksg ivin g 23% 43% Shopping still skews late in the season Only 23% do the majority of their Christmas shopping prior to Thanksgiving. Most pack shopping into the traditional post-Thanksgiving time period, which peaks in December. 34% 17% of households plan to do some holiday shopping after Christmas Day 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44 Greater percentage 11% No difference
  • 60. 71% Lesser percentage 17% Greater percentage 13% No difference 74% Lesser percentage 13% 47% 52% 52% 2014 2015 2016 36% 41% 42% 2014 2015 2016 On average, consumers expect to rely on Black Friday and Cyber Monday about the same as they did in recent seasons. Over half report that they don’t rely on Black Friday as much as they used to and just over
  • 61. 4 in 10 don’t rely on Cyber Monday as much, both similar to last year. Little change in reliance on the major shopping days Black Friday Cyber Monday Compared to past holiday seasons, expect shopping on this day to account for… Don’t rely on as much as I used to… 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” “Compared to past holiday seasons, do you expect any [Black Friday /Cyber Monday] shopping you do this holiday season to account for...?” 2016 Holiday SurveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45 About the survey
  • 62. This survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between September 6-20, 2016. It polled a national sample of 5,038 consumers and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus one to two percentage points. As used in this document, “Deloitte” refers to Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. http://www.deloitte.com/us/aboutSlide Number 1ContentsSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Positive outlook on US economyGeneral sentiment on spend remains stableHousehold financial situations continue to improveLittle change in quantity of giftsConsumers rein in non-gift spendingGift and non-gift spending��Presidential election to have little impact on holiday spendingSlide Number 13Internet runs away as #1 shopping channelAll store formats impacted by online riseAvoiding stores to avoid the crowdsSeeking stores for specific advantagesFrequent experimentation with new retailersStill shoppers spend most where they are familiarWatching the Bottom LineAmbivalence on timing of the best dealsClothing and gift cards still top the purchase listSubscription services rarely make the gift listNotable interest in gifting “experiences”Holidays are a time for indulgenceSlide Number 26Online spending matches spending in storeMany blend in-store and online shopping to optimize experience� Shoppers less loyal onlineVast majority do online research before shopping in storeShoppers plan; few holiday purchases are spontaneousSplit preference for online versus in-
  • 63. store experienceMajority use mobile devices for holiday shoppingConsumers employ smartphones as virtual shopping assistantsMobile purchases rise with retail apps getting most tractionSlide Number 36Free shipping tops list of desired retailer offeringsShoppers desire favorable return policiesIncreasing expectations for “fast” shippingSlide Number 40Data breaches are a setback but consumers forgiveSlide Number 42Slide Number 43Little change in reliance on the major shopping daysAbout the survey