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Children’s Skills and Human Welfare 
Elizabeth Bernold 
3 December 2014
Why do we care so much about children’s academic performance? 
Educational Performance and Economic Growth (Full Sample) 
Source: OECD 2010; The High Cost of Low Educational Performance: 
The Long-Run Economic Impact of Improving PISA Outcomes 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 2 
Conditional Growth 
Conditional PISA Test Score
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 3 
We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better 
performance and then higher economic growth… 
Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling
1: Yes, absolutely 
2: Yes, I think so 
3: I don’t know 
4: No, I don’t think so 
17% 
12% 
59% 
10% 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 4 
What do you think? 
What do you think: Does having more school lead to more economic growth? 
5: Definitely not 
2%
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 5 
We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better 
performance and then higher economic growth… 
Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling 
Adapted from Hanushek & Woessmann (2008), “The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development”
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 6 
Inequality in test scores is a troublingly-strong predictor of lifetime earnings 
inequality 
Earnings Inequality 
Test Score Inequality
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 7 
New important questions arise from these three figures 
? What is driving these test scores? 
Can these drivers be used as 
leverage points to systematically 
improve economic welfare? 
?
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 
A model summarizes the five primary factors that drive a student’s educational 
success 
8 
Institutions 
and 
resources 
Incentives 
(social, 
financial) 
Parents 
and Family 
Societal Well- 
Being 
Ability
Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 9 
The program: 
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black 
children with low IQ 
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning 
§ 90-minute home visits once a week 
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years 
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
How did the Perry Preschool Program affect IQ? 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 10 
100 
95 
90 
85 
80 
75 
IQ 
The Effect of the Perry Preschool Program on IQ 
Measured by Age-Specific Measures 
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 11 
The program: 
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black 
children with low IQ 
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning 
§ 90-minute home visits once a week 
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years 
After 35 years, the preschool graduates… 
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005) 
…were more likely to have graduated from high 
school 
…had higher earnings 
…were more likely to be married 
…had committed fewer crimes
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 
An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will 
be academically successful 
12 
Institutions 
and 
resources 
Incentives 
(social, 
financial) 
Parents 
and Family 
Societal Well- 
Being 
Ability
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 13 
An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will 
be academically successful 
Ability 
Ability 
Cognitive skills 
and abilities 
Ability 
Non-cognitive 
skills 
and abilities 
§ Reading 
§ Writing 
§ Arithmetic 
§ Problem solving 
§ Patience, self-control 
§ Intrinsic motivation 
§ Willingness to help 
§ Conscientiousness 
Source: 1Segal 2011; 2 Burks et al. 2008
1: I don’t want to wait 
2: I would wait 2 minutes 
3: I don’t know – I don’t have a phone 
4: I can easily wait about 15 minutes 
17% 
12% 
59% 
10% 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 14 
What do you think? 
How long would you wait to use your phone again? 
5: No matter what, I would wait until the end of this event 
2%
Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 15 
The program: 
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black 
children with low IQ 
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning 
§ 90-minute home visits once a week 
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years 
After 35 years, the preschool graduates… 
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005) 
…were more likely to have graduated from high 
school 
…had higher earnings 
…were more likely to be married 
…had committed fewer crimes
Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children 
FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 16
Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children 
FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 17
The Academic Diligence Task: “the marshmallow test for the digital age” 
Do math Play Game 
o 14 
o 1 
o 13 
o 4 
“what do 
you want 
to do?” 
FehrAdvice Source: The academic diligence task (ADT): assessing individual differences in effort on tedious but important & Partners AG, December 14 18 
schoolwork, Galla, Plumer, White (2014)
A wide array of interventions are dedicated to systematically improving non-cognitive 
skills: at home and at school 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 19 
Mary and Sam 
Let your child hold the book. Ask 
what it is about. Follow the words 
with your finger as you read. 
Source: York, Loeb (2014). One Step at a Time: The Effects of an Early Literacy Text Messaging 
Program for Parents of Preschoolers
$1 invested in education à $7 
return 
(Belfield et al. JHR 2006) 
Investing in preschool-aged 
children yields a 7-10 % higher 
rate of return 
When can we achieve the “most bang for our buck” in education-based 
investments? 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 
Per Annum Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested 
Age at Intervention 
Heckman, J. J. (2008). Schools, Skills and Synapses. Economic Inquiry. 20
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 
Interventions are seen to successfully leverage all five components of the model, 
using behavioral economics fundamentals 
21 
Institutions 
and 
resources 
Incentives 
(social, 
financial) 
Parents 
and Family 
Societal Well- 
Being 
Ability 
Improve teachers’ 
incentive structures 
(Fryer et al. 2012) 
Develop parents’ 
skills at building 
cognitive and non-cognitive 
skills 
(York, Loeb 2014) 
Manage 
parents’ (and 
thereby students’) 
beliefs of the 
benefits of skill 
development and 
educational 
achievement 
Systematically 
develop non-cognitive 
skills 
(Fehr & Schunk, 
ongoing, Mischel and 
Duckworth, ongoing) 
Adapt the timing of 
financial rewards 
to educational 
performance 
(Levitt et al. 2012) 
Reframe at-risk 
students’ 
perceptions of 
their role in 
society and at 
school 
(ideas42 2014)
Thank you for your attention! 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 22
Contact 
Elizabeth Bernold 
Consultant 
Bergstrasse 114 
8032 Zürich 
elizabeth.bernold@fehradvice.com 
@ebernold 
www.fehradvice.com 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG 
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 23

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Early Childhood Development

  • 1. Children’s Skills and Human Welfare Elizabeth Bernold 3 December 2014
  • 2. Why do we care so much about children’s academic performance? Educational Performance and Economic Growth (Full Sample) Source: OECD 2010; The High Cost of Low Educational Performance: The Long-Run Economic Impact of Improving PISA Outcomes FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 2 Conditional Growth Conditional PISA Test Score
  • 3. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 3 We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better performance and then higher economic growth… Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling
  • 4. 1: Yes, absolutely 2: Yes, I think so 3: I don’t know 4: No, I don’t think so 17% 12% 59% 10% FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 4 What do you think? What do you think: Does having more school lead to more economic growth? 5: Definitely not 2%
  • 5. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 5 We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better performance and then higher economic growth… Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling Adapted from Hanushek & Woessmann (2008), “The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development”
  • 6. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 6 Inequality in test scores is a troublingly-strong predictor of lifetime earnings inequality Earnings Inequality Test Score Inequality
  • 7. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 7 New important questions arise from these three figures ? What is driving these test scores? Can these drivers be used as leverage points to systematically improve economic welfare? ?
  • 8. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 A model summarizes the five primary factors that drive a student’s educational success 8 Institutions and resources Incentives (social, financial) Parents and Family Societal Well- Being Ability
  • 9. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 9 The program: § 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black children with low IQ § 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning § 90-minute home visits once a week § Examination of individuals for 40 years Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
  • 10. How did the Perry Preschool Program affect IQ? FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 10 100 95 90 85 80 75 IQ The Effect of the Perry Preschool Program on IQ Measured by Age-Specific Measures Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
  • 11. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 11 The program: § 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black children with low IQ § 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning § 90-minute home visits once a week § Examination of individuals for 40 years After 35 years, the preschool graduates… Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005) …were more likely to have graduated from high school …had higher earnings …were more likely to be married …had committed fewer crimes
  • 12. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will be academically successful 12 Institutions and resources Incentives (social, financial) Parents and Family Societal Well- Being Ability
  • 13. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 13 An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will be academically successful Ability Ability Cognitive skills and abilities Ability Non-cognitive skills and abilities § Reading § Writing § Arithmetic § Problem solving § Patience, self-control § Intrinsic motivation § Willingness to help § Conscientiousness Source: 1Segal 2011; 2 Burks et al. 2008
  • 14. 1: I don’t want to wait 2: I would wait 2 minutes 3: I don’t know – I don’t have a phone 4: I can easily wait about 15 minutes 17% 12% 59% 10% FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 14 What do you think? How long would you wait to use your phone again? 5: No matter what, I would wait until the end of this event 2%
  • 15. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 15 The program: § 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black children with low IQ § 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning § 90-minute home visits once a week § Examination of individuals for 40 years After 35 years, the preschool graduates… Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005) …were more likely to have graduated from high school …had higher earnings …were more likely to be married …had committed fewer crimes
  • 16. Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 16
  • 17. Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 17
  • 18. The Academic Diligence Task: “the marshmallow test for the digital age” Do math Play Game o 14 o 1 o 13 o 4 “what do you want to do?” FehrAdvice Source: The academic diligence task (ADT): assessing individual differences in effort on tedious but important & Partners AG, December 14 18 schoolwork, Galla, Plumer, White (2014)
  • 19. A wide array of interventions are dedicated to systematically improving non-cognitive skills: at home and at school FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 19 Mary and Sam Let your child hold the book. Ask what it is about. Follow the words with your finger as you read. Source: York, Loeb (2014). One Step at a Time: The Effects of an Early Literacy Text Messaging Program for Parents of Preschoolers
  • 20. $1 invested in education à $7 return (Belfield et al. JHR 2006) Investing in preschool-aged children yields a 7-10 % higher rate of return When can we achieve the “most bang for our buck” in education-based investments? FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 Per Annum Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested Age at Intervention Heckman, J. J. (2008). Schools, Skills and Synapses. Economic Inquiry. 20
  • 21. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 Interventions are seen to successfully leverage all five components of the model, using behavioral economics fundamentals 21 Institutions and resources Incentives (social, financial) Parents and Family Societal Well- Being Ability Improve teachers’ incentive structures (Fryer et al. 2012) Develop parents’ skills at building cognitive and non-cognitive skills (York, Loeb 2014) Manage parents’ (and thereby students’) beliefs of the benefits of skill development and educational achievement Systematically develop non-cognitive skills (Fehr & Schunk, ongoing, Mischel and Duckworth, ongoing) Adapt the timing of financial rewards to educational performance (Levitt et al. 2012) Reframe at-risk students’ perceptions of their role in society and at school (ideas42 2014)
  • 22. Thank you for your attention! FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 22
  • 23. Contact Elizabeth Bernold Consultant Bergstrasse 114 8032 Zürich elizabeth.bernold@fehradvice.com @ebernold www.fehradvice.com FehrAdvice & Partners AG FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 23