2012 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ANALYSI TUTOR: ANDRES FALQUEZ Camila Burbano, Mariuxi Castro,Leonidas Yagcha,Juan Xavier Gutierrez[COLOMBIA –ECONOMIC ANALYSIS]
INDEX 1. BACKGROUND OF COLOMBIA 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.1 SALLARY 2.2 REMITTENCES 2.3 DEBT 2.4 GDP 2.5 COLOMBIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.6 GOVERNMENT BUDGET 2.7 REVENUES 2.8 INTEREST 2.9 COLOMBIA EMERGING MARKET BOND 2.10 INFLATION COLOMBIA (2006 – 2011) 2.11 EXPENSES OF COLOMBIA BUDGET 2.12 PRIVATE LOANS COLOMBIA 2.13 PURCHASING POWER PARITY 2.14 SUBSIDIES 2.15 DEBT 3. APPENDIX 4. REFERENCES
1. BACKGROUND Colombia officially the Republic of Colombia, is a unitary constitutionalrepublic comprising thirty-two departments. The country is located innorthwestern South America, bordered to the northwest by Panama; to thenorth by the Caribbean Sea; to the east by Venezuelaand Brazil to the southby Ecuador and Peru, and to the west by the Pacific Ocean. Colombia isthe 26th largest country by area and the fourth largest in South America afterBrazil, Argentina and Peru. With over 46 million people, Colombia is the 27thlargest country in the world by population and has the second largest populationof any Spanish-speaking country in the world, after Mexico. Colombia isa middle power, and is now the fourth largest economy in Latin America, andthe third largest in South America. Colombia produces coffee, flowers,emeralds, coal, and oil. These products comprise the primary sector of theeconomy Soon after, Colombia achieved a relative degree of political stability, whichwas interrupted by a bloody conflict that took place between the late 1940s andthe early 1950s, a period known as La Violencia.From 1953 to 1964 the violence between the two political parties decreased firstwhen Gustavo Rojas deposed the President of Colombia in a coup détat andnegotiated with the Guerrillas, and then under the military junta ofGeneral Gabriel ParísGordillo. After Rojas deposition, the Colombian Conservative Party andColombian Liberal Party agreed to create the "National Front", a coalition whichwould jointly govern the country. Under the deal, the presidency would alternatebetween conservatives and liberals every 4 years for 16 years; the two partieswould have parity in all other elective offices. Despite the progress in certainsectors, many social and political problems continued, and guerrilla groupswere formally created such as the FARC, ELN and M-19 to fight thegovernment and political apparatus.
In 2002 vilonce in Colombia will change. Alvaro Uribe was electedpresident and He would not forgive the guerrillas for all the damage they havedone. He started with an aggressive judicial policy against crimes, guerillas anddrug cartels.His security program was based on a policy of democratic security, aiming to: gradually restore police presence in all municipalities increase judicial action against crimes of high social impact, strengthen public institutions reduce human rights violations dismantle terrorist organizations (specially armed rebel groups, the main one is the FARC-EP), reduce kidnappings and extortion reduce homicide levels prevent forced displacement and facilitating the return of forcefully-displaced people continue to fight the illegal drug trade through interdiction, eradication and judicial action. In 2004, 50% of homicides, kidnaps, drug cartels decreased. The firsttime in the history of Colombia. 2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2.1 SALLARY In Colombia since 2004 Sallaries in Colombia has been raised around 5%per year. In the current year the minimum wage is USD354 with a subsidy ofaround USD25 in transportation. In the graph of sallary we can see how the lineis increasing with the time passing. BENNEFIT USD Transportation (if earn less $25 than 2 minimum sallaries PAY ROLL 9% of nominal sallary CONTRIBUTION: Family subsidy bureau, Sena and the Colombian Family Welfare Institute Vacations 15 workingdays 2 Bounuses 15 days salary each. June and December 2.2 REMITTENCES Colombia armed conflict has caused a high emigration to other countries. In1999 the financial crisis made Colombians go live overseas. Around 3.378.345of Colombians live overseas. In 2010 remittances were about US$4.023millions. Most of the population is living in Venezuela. This represents the 45%of the population. Then we have USA and Ecuador. In south America, the majority of Colombian migrants were found inneighboring countries. In Venezuela and Ecuador. Colombian migration toVenezuela started on large scale in 1970´s because of the high demand oflabor thanks to the oil boom.
In North America the majority of Colombians are found in USA. In Eropeapproximately half of Colombian migrants are in Spain. Then in UK and finally inItaly. 2.3 DEBT2.3.1 Colombia Government External Debt Government External Debt in Colombia increased to -76.39 COP Billion inJuly of 2012 from -120.71 COP Billion in June of 2012, according to a reportreleased by the Banco De La Republica, Colombia. Historically, from 1995 until2012, Colombia Government External Debt averaged 241.86 COP Billionreaching an all-time high of 3449.87 COP Billion in July of 2011 and a recordlow of -3130.97 COP Billion in April of 2005. 2.4 GDP The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Colombia was worth 331.66 billionUS dollars in 2011, according to a report published by the World Bank. TheGDP value of Colombia is roughly equivalent to 0.53 percent of the worldeconomy. Historically, from 1960 until 2011, Colombia GDP averaged 65.76Billion USD reaching an all time high of 331.66 Billion USD in December of2011 and a record low of 4.04 Billion USD in December of 1960. The grossdomestic product (GDP) measures of national income and output for a givencountrys economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) is equal to the totalexpenditures for all final goods and services produced within the country in astipulated period of time. This page includes a chart with historical data forColombia GDP. 2.5 Colombia Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in Colombia was last reported at 9.9 percent inSeptember of 2012. Historically, from 2001 until 2012, Colombia UnemploymentRate averaged 12.5 Percent reaching an all-time high of 17.9 Percent inJanuary of 2002 and a record low of 9.0 Percent in October of 2011. Theunemployment rate can be defined as the number of people actively looking fora job as a percentage of the labor force.INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT The phenomenon of informality has been worked through different formsof measurement. From a business approach, the production units may belongto the formal sector or informal, according to their tax characteristics, legislative,accounting or size of establishment. Since the focus of employment, we reviewthe characteristics, according to receiving social benefits (vacations, bonuses,etc..), its social security coverage in health and pension.The definition adopted by the DANE, for the measurement of informalemployment refers to the 1993 OIT resolution of and DELHI groupsrecommendations, which are taken from elements that meet labor marketconditions Colombian. As an approach to a definition of informal employmentvariables are integrated establishment size and occupational status. Thus asemployedinclude informal: Individual employees and workers who work in establishments, businesses or enterprises employing up five people in all agencies and branches, including the employer and / or member; Unpaid family workers or unpaid workers in companies or businesses other households who work in establishments, business enterprises employing up to five people; Day laborers or laborers who work in establishments, businesses or enterprises employing up five people; The bosses or employers in companies with five employees or less; excluded are workers or government employees. Manizales (45.2%), Bogotá DC (47.3%) and Medellin A.M
2.6 Colombia Government Budget Colombia reported a Government Budget deficit equal to 2.90 percent ofthe countrys Gross Domestic Product in 2011. Historically, from 2001 until2011, Colombia Government Budget averaged -3.95 Percent of GDP reachingan all-time high of 0.23 Percent of GDP in December of 2005 and a record lowof -8.47 Percent of GDP in December of 2004. Government Budget is anitemized accounting of the payments received by government (taxes and otherfees) and the payments made by government (purchases and transferpayments). A budget deficit occurs when an government spends more moneythan it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus.2.7 Revenues: excluding grants (% of GDP) in ColombiaThe Revenue; excluding grants (% of GDP) in Colombia was last reported at18.20 in 2010, according to a World Bank report published in 2012. Revenue iscash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such asfines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales. Grants are also consideredas revenue but are excluded here. Colombia is a free market economy withmajor commercial and investment ties to the United States. Transition from ahighly regulated economy has been underway for more than 15 years.Colombias average annual economic growth rate of over 5% from 2002 to 2007can be attributed to an increase in domestic security, resulting in greater foreigninvestment; prudent monetary policy; and export growth.2.8 Deposit interest rate (%) in ColombiaThe Deposit interest rate (%) in Colombia was last reported at 3.66 in 2010,according to a World Bank report published in 2012. Deposit interest rate is therate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits.Colombia is a free market economy with major commercial and investment tiesto the United States. Transition from a highly regulated economy has beenunderway for more than 15 years. Colombias average annual economic growthrate of over 5% from 2002 to 2007 can be attributed to an increase in domestic
security, resulting in greater foreign investment; prudent monetary policy; andexport growth.2.9 Inflation Colombia (2006 – 2011) Between October 2006 and September 2007 we conducted the Survey ofIncome and Expenditure in the Great macro Integrated Household Survey, withcoverage of 42,733 homes for the 24 major cities, which to calculate changes in habitsconsumption and expenditure structure of the Colombian population. With the results ofthis survey, under the work of an interdisciplinary group of experts and the advice ofthe statistical agency of Canada, is developing a new methodology for calculating theCPI, which is applied from January 2009. Created a new basket with a two-tierstructure, one fixed and one flexible, which allows you to update the basket of goodsand services, changes in final consumption in a relatively. In addition to expanding thebasket, the new IPC-08 expanded its geographical coverage to 24 cities. With inflation 2011 and closed, we can make a future projection. For example in2011 the family basket of Colombians was increased by 3.73%, while the increase forthose who earn the minimum wage real progress was made 1.45 points. This, as theminimum increase was 5.8%, while price increases for low socioeconomic populationwere 4.35% in the year. The truth is that the minimum has gained purchasing power inthe last decade. At the end of 2000, amounted to 485,000 pesos today. This meansthat, at current prices, those who earn the minimum today have a purchasing power ofmore than 82,000 pesos in 2000. The price increase for the entire population was 0.56percentage points higher than in the previous year (3.17%) and higher than expectedby analysts, who estimated it at 3.5%. For upper class families, the inflation rate was 2.7%, while for the middlestratum of the index was 3.63%, Among other things, we must not forget to maintainthe interest rate at 4.25% intervention, as the economy continues to show "signs ofstrengthening fueled by consumer confidence and strengthening business investment."Following important data, the minimum wage is set at 2012 $ 566,700, resulting in arise of 5.8% in relation to the minimum wage of 2011. From 1 January 2012 theminimum wage will increase from $ 535,600 to $ 566,700. Therefore, the 18.1 millionColombians who earn the minimum wage receive 31,100 pesos.
2.10 Colombia Emerging Market Bond The emerging market debt capped a good solid month with a weaker tone onwhile bond prices fell again as investors showed doubts about taking more riskyassets. Fears over the outlook for the global economy affected the market sentiment asfor most of the month. A series of gloomy economic indicators published in the UnitedStates set the tone for trading during the period. The risk premium as measured by theIndex Bond Global Emerging Markets JP Morgan a yield around 2.28% in the month.The premium on the index widened to 325 basis points or 3.25 percentage points overTreasurys U.S., having started the month around 300 basis points. Values highly ratedcountries such as Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia and Indonesia recorded modest gains inthe month while traditionally riskier investments like bonds of Venezuela and Argentinarecorded declines in prices in the month. The emerging markets index (EMBI +) tracks the total return of the bonds ofemerging market debt. Instruments include Brady Bonds denominated in foreigncurrency, loans and Eurobonds, while local dollar-denominated instruments. The EMBI+ is mainly concentrated in the three instruments of major Latin American countries(Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), reflecting the size and liquidity of these marketsexternal debt. The non-Latin countries are represented in the index by Bulgaria,Morocco, Nigeria, Philippines, Poland, Russia and South Africa. The instruments of theEMBI + must be at least $ 500 million of debt outstanding. Know that the Issuer reiterated that this year end inflation target of 3%. InDecember last year the cost of living index was at 3.7% voids and now stands ataround 3%, so it could end the year in this figure. According to Uribe, the number ofIPC helps avoid fluctuations in production and is consistent with monetary policy thatseeks objective inflation and exchange rate flexibility. Regarding the complaint ofemployers who call for greater intervention in the dollar market (going from 20 to 40million dollars a day), to curb the appreciation and said that eight years have tripledreserve levels.2.11 Expenses of Colombia Budget2006: The Budget Act of 2006 was signed by President Alvaro Uribe Velez, for a totalof 105.4 billion pesos. The governments goals for next year are optimistic and
ambitious; it shows an increase of 13%, which contrasts with the 5% most optimisticfigures of the countrys economic growth this year. Of total revenue and resourcesplanned for 2006, 45.4 billion correspond to capital resources of the nation, such asasset disposals, surplus, financial yields foreign and domestic credit. Income of publicfacilities is 10.1 trillion, and special fund revenues are 4.5 Billion parafiscal. The Budget 2006 developed 11 key points: The 2006 budget consolidates aresponsible fiscal policy, consolidates democratic security includes increasedresources for social programs, budget focuses resources in grants to improve thesituation of poverty and destitution of the poor population, meets the pensioners andpension obligations, Budget strengthens democracy, The 2006 budget consolidatesjustice, The 2006 budget favors investment in infrastructure, 2006 budget meetsgovernment officials in wages, The 2006 budget favors investment, $ 13 billion, 4.3% ofGDP, The 2006 budget guarantees the timely execution of the debt service.2008: The initiative, which happens to sanction by President Alvaro Uribe, is called"Security and Trust for Social Development", and has a total of 125 billion 700thousand pesos. The Congress approved the 2008 budget draft entitled "Security andTrust for Social Development" for a total of 125.7 billion pesos. The 2008 budget is aclear and transparent budget which includes an unprecedented breakthrough for thecountrys economic and social development. The project will first strengthen thedemocratic security policy, and second, to maintain investor confidence in the countryand this means economic growth and employment, and third, to promote an agenda ofambitious social development for the country. The total amount approved by 125.7 billion dollars, 64.5 billion will be operatingcosts where more than 70 percent are transfers that the Government turn regions to beinvested in education, health and drinking water and basic sanitation and generalpurposes. Other 39.1 billion pesos will be sent to the service and the amortization ofdebt capital, similar amount budgeted in 2007.And as for the starting amount forinvestment was 21.9 billion pesos, representing a growth of 13 percent over theprevious year and maintains the proportion of gross domestic product, as required bythe Constitution.2009:
President Alvaro Uribe signed the Budget Law for 2009, amounting to 140billion 494 billion pesos. This figure of 140.5 billion is higher by 13.1 percent comparedto 2008, which is 124.2 billion, after 1.5 billion cuts ordered by the Government. Thethree big budget items are: Operation, to be a game of 73.5 billion, debt service, with37 billion, and investment, with 29.9 billion pesos, the presidency said in a statement.In operation, the change from the 2008 budget is 14.4 percent, accounted for 11.5percent increase in allocations for personnel expenses, and 7.2 percent in overheadcosts, due to higher staff costs Justice, the increase in the plant of the AttorneyGeneral, the National Prison Institute (INPEC), and the laws of Childhood, and Justiceand Peace, among others. Also increased 14.2 percent in the General System of Units (GSP) for regionalauthorities, and higher costs of 20.3 percent in the payment of monthly pensions toretirees. In the category of Other Transfers growth of 10.4 percent, sustained throughpayment and acknowledgment of contingencies and judgments by 3.2 billion pesos.With respect to the Debt Service is a decrease of 4.8 percent, mainly due to lowerdepreciation will have to make. Investment is an increase of 42.2 percent. The bulk ofthe resources of this area are aimed at a more competitive infrastructure beingimplemented throughout the country, departmental water plans and promotioncommunications, agriculture, industry and trade.2010: Alvaro Uribes government privatization provides $ 695 million for next year.Colombia presented the Governments expenditure budget of 2010 for a value of 148.3billion pesos (U.S. $ 73,641,000), representing an increase of 7% compared with thatfor 2009. The project, to be submitted to Congress for approval, provides forprivatization by 1.4 billion pesos in 2010 ($ 695 million), among which are the sales ofthe energy distribution of Boyacá and Meta, as well as Gecelca generator. Areprojected defense spending and security totaling 21.12 billion pesos (U.S. $ 10.487million), accounting for 14.2% of the total budget and the third largest with more weightbehind the debt service and social protection.2011: The 2011 expenditure budget by about 4 billion pesos (U.S. $ 2,154 million),within the state of emergency decreed to address the tragedy caused by rains, sourcessaid Tuesday market. The addition to the budget will be covered by the sale of shares
in state oil company Ecopetrol for about 1.5 billion pesos (U.S. $ 807.8 million) thisyear, while the remaining resources will be obtained with higher taxes that thegovernment decreed last month, within the state of emergency. The government dismissed the additional issue of domestic or foreign debt tocover the largest amount of the budget, originally graduated in 147.3 billion pesos (U.S.$ 79,330 million), the government announced the extension to more people frompaying an estate tax and the extension of a tax on financial transactions to raise 5.3billion pesos (U.S. $ 2,854 million) between 2011 and 2014 for meet the emergencycaused by the rains. Within the state of emergency the government authorized the saleof up to 10% of Ecopetrol, share valued at about 17 billion pesos (U.S. $ 9,155 million).2.12 Private Loans Colombia: Colombian banks are selling the most peso bonds in at least five years tofinance a lending boom amid the fastest economic growth since 2007. ColombianBanks are among that led a 32 percent jump in Colombian lenders’ bond sales in thefirst nine months of the year to 5.04 trillion pesos ($2.5 billion). Private bank lendingrose 29 percent in Colombia in August of 2011, compared with 20 percent in Brazil and12 percent in Mexico. The economy is doing well and people and companies remainoptimistic about future growth, leading to this surge in lending Loan growth has fueledthe biggest jump in retail sales in more than a decade and faster-than-expectedinflation Those results are making Colombia one of the most important Latin Americancountries where traders expect interest-rate increases this year. While policy makersleft the key rate unchanged today at 4.5 percent for a third month, Colombia Economyare lending fuel growth of as much as 6.5 percent in Latin America’s fifth-largesteconomy, which would be up from 4.3 percent in 2010. Inflation accelerated to 3.73percent in September, compared with the 3.43 percent median estimate, The centralbank is targeting inflation of between 2 percent and 4 percent this year. Deposits inprivate banks grew 20 percent in August from a year ago compared with 29 percentgrowth in loans outstanding, Bonds placed by lenders in Colombia account for 83percent of the 6.1 trillion pesos issued.
2.13 Purchasing Power Parity A nations GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is thesum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at pricesprevailing in the United States. In the graph that follows we can see the risingtrend of the GDP at purchasing power parity. PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollarsusing purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the samepurchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP isthe sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus anyproduct taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of theproducts. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation offabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Dataare in current international dollars. GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP GDP isgross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasingpower parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power overGDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP at purchasers prices isthe sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus anyproduct taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of theproducts. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation offabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Dataare in current international dollars.2.14 Subsidies Subsidies, grants, and other social benefits include all unrequited,nonrepayable transfers on current account to private and public enterprises;grants to foreign governments, international organizations, and othergovernment units; and social security, social assistance benefits, and employersocial benefits in cash and in kind.2.14 Debt Debt is the entire stock of direct government fixed-term contractualobligations to others outstanding on a particular date. It includes domestic andforeign liabilities such as currency and money deposits, securities other thanshares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced bythe amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because
debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually thelast day of the fiscal year.Present value of debt is the sum of short-term externaldebt plus the discounted sum of total debt service payments due on public,publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term external debt overthe life of existing loans. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation asmeasured by the GDP deflator.
3. APPENDIX 800 REMESA PROMEDIO POR PRINCIPALES PAÍSES DE ORIGEN ACUMULADO ANUAL 2009-2011* 600 400D 200 0 Total 2009 Total 2010 Total 2011*(*) 2011 Información preliminarFuente: Encuesta trimestral de remesas - Banco de la RepúblicaCálculos Sector Externo- DTIE INTERNAL DEBT DOLLARS100 80 60 40 INTERNAL DEBT 20 DOLLARS 0 FDI MILLIONS $100,000.00 $80,000.00 $60,000.00 $40,000.00 FDI MILLIONS $20,000.00 $- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4. REFERENCES:Banco, I. d. (15 de January de 2012). Interamericano de Desarrollo Banco. Obtenido deInteramericano de Desarrollo Banco: http://www.iadb.org/es/acerca-del-bid/financiamiento-del-bid/prestamos-del-sector-privado-,6049.htmlBank, W. (18 de November de 2012). World Bank.Obtenido dehttp://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZSColombia, B. d. (18 de November de 2012). Banco de la Republica de Colombia. Recuperado el18 de November de 2012, de Banco de la Republica de Colombia: www.banrep.gov.coColombiaPortafolio. (29 de June de 2012). ColombiaPortafolio. Recuperado el 18 de Novemberde 2012, de ColombiaPortafolio: http://www.portafolio.co/economia/bonos-colombia-entran-los-indices-del-citiDANE. (20 de September de 2012). DANE. Recuperado el 18 de November de 2012, deDANE:http://www.dane.gov.co/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=114&Itemid=66ELAC. (10 de October de 2011). ELAC. Recuperado el 18 de November de 2012, de ELAC:http://www.eclac.org/publicaciones/xml/1/45581/Capitulo4_Sector_Externo1.pdfELAC. (14 de October de 2011). ELAC. Recuperado el 18 de November de 2012, de ELAC:http://www.eclac.org/noticias/paginas/8/33638/presentacion-estudio-economico-es.pdfIRC. (01 de February de 2012). IRC. Recuperado el 18 de November de 2012, de IRC:http://www.irc.gov.co/irc/es/infodeudapublica/infogeneral/deudainternapfMinisterio, F. D. (31 de January de 2012). Ministerio de Finanzas. Obtenido dehttp://www.afin.com.co/BancoConocimiento/I/Indices_de_Mercados_Emergentes/Indices_de_Mercados_Emergentes.asp?CodSeccion=12SlideShare. (14 de July de 2011). SlideShare. Recuperado el 18 de November de 2012, dehttp://www.slideshare.net/MinHacienda/presentacion-presupuesto-2013