www.statistik.at We provide information
Longitudinal Weights for the
Production of Transitions and Flow
Estimates
Katrin B...
www.statistik.at slide 2 | May 28, 2014
Introduction
• Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS
• Bias Analysis
• Imputa...
www.statistik.at slide 3 | May 28, 2014
Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS
• Is not in focus so far
• Depends on t...
www.statistik.at slide 4 | May 28, 2014
Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS
q(t) q(t+1) q(t+2) q(t+3) q(t+4)
loss
r...
www.statistik.at slide 5 | May 28, 2014
Longitudinal Analysis
Can be based on different subsamples:
•One removes all incom...
www.statistik.at slide 6 | May 28, 2014
Bias Analysis
Are there any differences between mobile and immobile
persons in the...
www.statistik.at slide 7 | May 28, 2014
Bias Analysis (Q1 2012)
Demographic
Characteristics
in %
Mobile Immobile Total
Age...
www.statistik.at slide 8 | May 28, 2014
Bias Analysis (Q1 2012)
Demographic
Characteristics
in %
Mobile Outflux Influx
Age...
www.statistik.at slide 9 | May 28, 2014
Bias Analysis (Q1 2012)
S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample popu...
www.statistik.at slide 10 | May 28, 2014
Bias Analysis – Flows (Q4 2011 + Q1 2012)
S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012– Unweighted sa...
www.statistik.at slide 11 | May 28, 2014
Imputation
Proportions of imputed missing values for longitudinal data
sets:
Long...
www.statistik.at slide 12 | May 28, 2014
Imputation
Random hot deck imputation of important labour market
characteristics
...
www.statistik.at slide 13 | May 28, 2014
Weighting: Longitudinal Weights
www.statistik.at slide 14 | May 28, 2014
Weighting: Longitudinal Weights
Two versions of weights:
1. Reducing the bias: no...
www.statistik.at slide 15 | May 28, 2014
Weights 1: Reducing the bias
Base weights calibrated against marginal totals for ...
www.statistik.at slide 16 | May 28, 2014
Weights 2: Consistency of stocks and flows
Base weights calibrated against margin...
www.statistik.at slide 17 | May 28, 2014
Comparison
Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for cross-sectional data Q4 20...
www.statistik.at slide 18 | May 28, 2014
Comparison
Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for flows corresponding to lon...
www.statistik.at slide 19 | May 28, 2014
Summary
• Obvious differences between immobile and mobile persons for
demographic...
www.statistik.at slide 20 | May 28, 2014
Please address queries to:
Katrin Baumgartner
Angelika Meraner
Alexander Kowarik
...
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K. Baumgartner, A. Meraner, A. Kowarik - Longitudinal Weights for the Production of Transitions and Flow Estimates

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9th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology 15-16 maggio

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K. Baumgartner, A. Meraner, A. Kowarik - Longitudinal Weights for the Production of Transitions and Flow Estimates

  1. 1. www.statistik.at We provide information Longitudinal Weights for the Production of Transitions and Flow Estimates Katrin Baumgartner Angelika Meraner Alexander Kowarik Statistics Austria Rome 16 May 2014 9th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology
  2. 2. www.statistik.at slide 2 | May 28, 2014 Introduction • Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS • Bias Analysis • Imputation • Weighting • Summary
  3. 3. www.statistik.at slide 3 | May 28, 2014 Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS • Is not in focus so far • Depends on the survey design • Only available for a subset of LFS sample • Every quarter: exchange of 1/5 of the survey • Household stays 5 consecutive quarters in the survey
  4. 4. www.statistik.at slide 4 | May 28, 2014 Longitudinal Dimension of the Austrian LFS q(t) q(t+1) q(t+2) q(t+3) q(t+4) loss r1 r2 r2 r3 r3 r3 r4 r4 r4 r4 r5 r5 r5 r5 r5 r6 r6 r6 r6 r7 r7 r7 r8 r8 r9 gain • Cross sectional point of view: quarter consists of 5 waves (rotation numbers) • Longitudinal point of view: a rotation number appears in 5 quarters • Q-Q-Changes: approximately 4/5 of the LFS sample can be used • Y-Y-Changes: approximately 1/5 of the LFS sample can be used
  5. 5. www.statistik.at slide 5 | May 28, 2014 Longitudinal Analysis Can be based on different subsamples: •One removes all incomplete cases for the flow analysis, i.e. flows are based on the subsample of persons who are successfully surveyed in both quarters, q(t) and q(t+1) (immobile persons). •All persons who are successfully surveyed in one quarter, q(t) or q(t+1) and do not regularly rotate in or out, are used (mobile + immobile persons). Potentially missing information of the second q(t+1) and first quarter q(t) respectively is imputed.
  6. 6. www.statistik.at slide 6 | May 28, 2014 Bias Analysis Are there any differences between mobile and immobile persons in their sociodemographic structure? •Linking to administrative data from Central Population Register •Information of mobile persons is only available for one quarter: first q(t) or second q(t+1).
  7. 7. www.statistik.at slide 7 | May 28, 2014 Bias Analysis (Q1 2012) Demographic Characteristics in % Mobile Immobile Total Age 15-34 40.5 31.8 32.4 35-64 59.5 68.2 67.6 Sex Male 52.0 49.5 49.7 Female 48.0 50.5 50.3 Nationality AT 83.2 90.5 89.9 Non-AT 16.8 9.5 10.1 Total (in 1 000) 1,759 21,766 23,525 S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). – Persons with administrative identifier (bPK).
  8. 8. www.statistik.at slide 8 | May 28, 2014 Bias Analysis (Q1 2012) Demographic Characteristics in % Mobile Outflux Influx Age 15-34 40.5 45.1 34.5 35-64 59.5 54.9 65.5 Sex Male 52.0 52.4 51.3 Female 48.0 47.6 48.7 Nationality AT 83.2 82.8 83.7 N-AT 16.8 17.2 16.3 Total (in 1000) 1,759 1,005 754 S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). - Persons with administrative identifier (bPK).
  9. 9. www.statistik.at slide 9 | May 28, 2014 Bias Analysis (Q1 2012) S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012 Q1 2012. – Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). Register labour status for mobile and immobile persons with administrative identifier (bPK).
  10. 10. www.statistik.at slide 10 | May 28, 2014 Bias Analysis – Flows (Q4 2011 + Q1 2012) S.: Microcensus-LFS 2012– Unweighted sample population in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (aged 15 to 64). Register labour status for mobile and immobile persons with administrative identifier (bPK).
  11. 11. www.statistik.at slide 11 | May 28, 2014 Imputation Proportions of imputed missing values for longitudinal data sets: Longitudinal Data Imputed missing values in % Q4 2011 & Q1 2012 Q4 2011 3.9 Q1 2012 4.4 Q1 2012 & Q2 2012 Q1 2012 3.9 Q2 2012 4.5 Q2 2012 & Q3 2012 Q2 2012 3.2 Q3 2012 4.5 Q3 2012 & Q4 2012 Q3 2012 3.4 Q4 2012 3.8 Q4 2011 & Q4 2012 Q4 2011 7.6 Q4 2012 9.6
  12. 12. www.statistik.at slide 12 | May 28, 2014 Imputation Random hot deck imputation of important labour market characteristics Selection of domain variables (max. 7) Based on bias analysis • Gender, age, nationality • Administrative labour status (if available) of both quarters/years • ILO labour status of `complementary´ quarter/year (if administrative labour status not available) Longitudinal concept Currently imputed variable pertaining to `complementary´ quarter/year Multinomial logit model (forward selection) 7th (last) domain variable for cases with no administrative labour status
  13. 13. www.statistik.at slide 13 | May 28, 2014 Weighting: Longitudinal Weights
  14. 14. www.statistik.at slide 14 | May 28, 2014 Weighting: Longitudinal Weights Two versions of weights: 1. Reducing the bias: not calibrating against the ILO labour market status 2. Providing consistency between stocks and flows: additionally calibrating against the ILO labour market status (LMS adj) Key figures for ILO labour market status stem from published quarterly results of the microcensus -> projected data
  15. 15. www.statistik.at slide 15 | May 28, 2014 Weights 1: Reducing the bias Base weights calibrated against marginal totals for q(t) and q(t+1) consecutively 1.Population by NUTS-2 region, sex and age 2.Population by NUTS-2 region and nationality 3.Weights corresponding to people born, deceased, immigrated or emigrated in q(t) are calibrated against the natural population change and the migration statistics
  16. 16. www.statistik.at slide 16 | May 28, 2014 Weights 2: Consistency of stocks and flows Base weights calibrated against marginal totals for q(t) and q(t+1) consecutively 1.Population by NUTS-2 region, sex and age 2.Population by NUTS-2 region and nationality 3.Population by nationality, sex, age and ILO labour status 4.Weights corresponding to people born, deceased, immigrated or emigrated in q(t) are calibrated against the natural population change and the migration statistics
  17. 17. www.statistik.at slide 17 | May 28, 2014 Comparison Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for cross-sectional data Q4 2011 of population living in private households aged 15-64 without persons doing their military or civilian service according to ILO labour status.
  18. 18. www.statistik.at slide 18 | May 28, 2014 Comparison Comparison of weighting options 1 and 2 for flows corresponding to longitudinal data comprising Q4 2011 and Q4 2012, i.e. the population living in private households at both time points, aged 15-64 and not doing their military or civilian service according to ILO labour status.
  19. 19. www.statistik.at slide 19 | May 28, 2014 Summary • Obvious differences between immobile and mobile persons for demographic characteristics and administrative labour status • Random hot deck imputation of missing data  Longitudinal concept incorporated  Use of administrative labour status • Weighting option 1 preferred  Bias reducing  Not adjusted to ILO Labour Market Status -> not providing consistency between stocks and flows
  20. 20. www.statistik.at slide 20 | May 28, 2014 Please address queries to: Katrin Baumgartner Angelika Meraner Alexander Kowarik Contact information: Guglgasse 13, 1110 Vienna phone: +43 (1) 71128-7211 katrin.baumgartner@statistik.gv.at Thank you very much for your attention

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