2010 telecom megatrends

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2010 telecom megatrends

  1. 1. 2010 Telecom Megatrends Sylvain Lamblot Oct 2010
  2. 2. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 2 Before to start http:// www.personalizemedia.com/media/socmedcounter.sw
  3. 3. Telecom industry is changing
  4. 4. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 4 Could you imagine few years ago? Finland makes 1Mb broadband access a legal right
  5. 5. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 5 Could you imagine few years ago?
  6. 6. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 6 Could you imagine few years ago?
  7. 7. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 7 Could you imagine few years ago?
  8. 8. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 8 Could you imagine few years ago? All you can eat MUSIC for 10€ / month
  9. 9. TelecoM Mega trends in a Nutshell
  10. 10. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 10 The rise of Mobile 7 Billions
  11. 11. Global operators’ revenues 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2009 2012 2015 Subscriptions(million) Fixed Mobile Global BB subscriptions Source: Ericsson 2010 Mobile data, incl. mobile PC access & SMS Mobile voice Fixed corporate data services Fixed broadband Fixed VoIP IPTV Fixed narrowband voice MobileFixed 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2009 2012 2015 BUSD 4000 The rise of Mobile Broadband
  12. 12. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 12 The rise of 4g
  13. 13. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 13 The rise of AppStores
  14. 14. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 14 And new problems!
  15. 15. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 15 The rise of recommandation
  16. 16. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 16 The rise of In-app purchase
  17. 17. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 17 The rise of SOCIAL
  18. 18. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 18 The rise of Design & SIMPLICITY
  19. 19. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 19 The rise of the machines
  20. 20. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 20 The rise of new business model
  21. 21. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 21 The rise of User Generated content
  22. 22. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 22 The rise of the long tail http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Abf8ySWVJuA Long tail 101 3 mn
  23. 23. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 23 The rise of Open
  24. 24. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 24 The rise of developpers
  25. 25. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 25 The rise of mobile OS fragmentation http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2010/11/infographic-the-mobile-developer-journey/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Visionmobile+(VisionMobile+Forum)
  26. 26. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 26 The rise of Streaming
  27. 27. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 27 The rise of Brokering Adress the Many to Many challenge
  28. 28. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 28 The traffic avalanche Source: Morgan Stanley, 2010
  29. 29. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 29 The rise of mobile tiered plan
  30. 30. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 30 The CONSOLIDATION TOP 20 players coNtrol 2/3 of global revenues 2009E 5% 4% 4% 3%2%2%2%2%2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 32% AT&T NTT Verizon DT Telefonica FT Vodafone China Mobile NTT DoCoMoVivendiBT Sprint Nextel China Telecom Softbank America Movil Telstra China Unicom KPN KDDITI Others Total revenues: 1616 BUSD Top 20 players: 1095 (~68%) 1990 2010E Consolidation Mobile entry Deregulation 2000 60% Top 20 share of telecom services revenues ~75% ~70% 100% Sources: Ericsson analysis, Reuters data (2010)
  31. 31. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 31 A handful of players dominate the market › Emerging markets giants increasingly present in top 20 › Continued consolidation defends market share and core business profitability › Internet / device giants – comparably high performance and high future expectations -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Revenues 2009 (BUSD) EBIT2009(BUSD) AT&T NTT Verizon DT Telefonica China Mobile Vodafone FT NTT DoCoMo Microsoft Apple Google Sprint Nextel KDDI Vivendi TI China Telecom America Movil Softbank KPN Telstra China Unico m BT EBIT>17% EBIT<17% Top 20 operators 17% EBIT (weighted average) 20 largest operators by revenue and EBIT (blue circles) Market cap size Sources: Ericsson analysis, Reuters data (2010)
  32. 32. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 32 GROWTH PROFITABILITY The operators Challenge: Find Profitable growth and optimize investments MATURING MARKETS WILL PRESSURE ALREADY LOW MARGINS Sources: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix; Cowen & Co.; NCC; CIA World Factbook; Credo research and analysis
  33. 33. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 33 The rise of CFO Revenue sharing Central procurement SaaS model
  34. 34. CAPEX & GDP
  35. 35. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 35 New ways of selling Consultant Trial Demo Telepresence Partnership Reccurent revenues SaaS pricing
  36. 36. CONCLUSION 2/2
  37. 37. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 37 Acquisitions or not? Sum of acquisitions from 2008-2009 YTD1 More than 70 multimedia related acquisitions 2008-2009 and >60 acquisitions in OSS/BSS market during 2007-20082 2 1 0 2 2 55 0 3 5 00 11 0 0 2 5 26 0 4 1 11 23 3 1 10 0 7 0 24 6 9 0 83 0 11 0 Qualcomm 72 20 Multimedia relatedOther acquisitionsMultimedia relatedOther acquisitions Total number of acquisitions
  38. 38. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 38 11 factors Impacting Operators 11 factors Open with
  39. 39. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 39 Where are we? http:// www.personalizemedia.com/media/socmedcounter.sw
  40. 40. Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 | Page 40 Did you like this presentation? › Follow-me on Yammer.com › Email me at sylvain.lamblot@ericsson.com › Connect on Linkedin.com

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