Chris Skinner @FSClub and @Chris_Skinner    www.thefinanser.com      © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Don’t        TELL Mum       I work for          a BANK© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
“I’d shut Apple down and give the money        back to the shareholders”                   …An Apple PowerBook G3 250 cost...
The Bad NewsThe next financial crisis is in 2045
The Good NewsWe will all make a shedload of money
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Dodd-Frank has 400 rules               286 have deadlines             Regulators missed 1 in 4               Volcker rule ...
Massive FDI heads into:                       Turkey                      Indonesia                       Vietnam         ...
European Market Infrastructure Regulation       (EMIR) deadline is missed                  … SWIFT, FIX and FpML agree to ...
Yuan free floatsChina sets up an Asian clearing system: the   Chinese Clearance Processing System                  (CCPS)F...
Volcker Rule leads to radical restructuring             of bulge bracketFTSE100: 6724   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 1452...
TARGET2 for Securities finally goes liveFTSE100: 6770   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14801 Hang Seng: 29001              ...
The Eurozone divides as Spain defaultsFTSE100: 5910   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 30542                ...
Vickers rule separates UK retail and             investment banksFTSE100: 5910   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang ...
China becomes #1 global economyFTSE100: 5910   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 33444                       ...
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
TodayAmerica                                China• Unemployment                         • Maintaining growth• House prices...
TodayEurozone                         Rest of World• Portugal                       • Social inclusion• Italy             ...
TodayCIVETS                               The Growth8• Columbia                           • Brazil• Indonesia             ...
Today• Restoring Financial Stability              • Deciphering “Russia, Inc.”• Setting the Right Green                   ...
Reserve Bank of India launch alternative    clearing system to CCPS, RBIXPFTSE100: 7007   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16...
China makes all clearing of yuan mandatory              through CCPSFTSE100: 7232   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16805 Ha...
The euro ceases to trade as a nationalcurrency in the ‘soft’eurozone countries, butcontinues as a denominated trading curr...
America’s new President Sheen (yes,    Charlie) takes the oath of officeFTSE100: 8001   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 1791...
America’s new President Sheen (yes,    Charlie) takes the oath of officeFTSE100: 8001   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 1791...
The USA requests that SWIFT remove  North Korean banks from the network                   …        EU forces SWIFT to agre...
Great returns from investments in Latam,     new Asian and emerging Africa                   …  Increased social unrest in...
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Julian Assange (wikileaks)                             © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Aaron Barr             © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Mark Zuckerberg (facebook)                             © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Mohamed Bouzzazi© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Molly Katchpole                  © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Satoshi Nakamoto (bitcoin)© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
OWS picture© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
India and China impose trade sanctions       against each other over NepalFTSE100: 11330   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 2...
Tensions in the Middle East becomeextreme as alternative fuels undermine oilFTSE100: 11501   Dow Jones Industrial Average:...
The African Union Alliance is seen as the     world’s sixth largest economyFTSE100: 11387   Dow Jones Industrial Average: ...
China’s RMB overtakes the dollar as the     worlds major reserve currency                 [2012: 0.33% of world payments]F...
The Chinese CCPS and regional currencysystems take over from the DTCC and SWIFT,in terms of global currency and trade volu...
The UK government complete therehabilitation of the Royal Bank of Scotland FTSE100: 11761   Dow Jones Industrial Average: ...
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today•   Macro-economic risk                       •      Dodd-Frank•   Credit risk                               •      V...
European Economic & Monetary Union is reworked into the European Regional Trade            Agreement (ERTA)FTSE LATIBEX: 1...
Brazil, Colombia and Mexico agree a new               trade pact with IndiaFTSE LATIBEX: 15741   Dow Jones Industrial Aver...
America and China agree a new currency     union, giving birth to the RenminbuckFTSE LATIBEX: 16362   Dow Jones Industrial...
Iran attacks Israel with a nuclear strike                 upon JerusalemFTSE LATIBEX: 16857   Dow Jones Industrial Average...
China imposes economic sanctions against     India, as India’s economy reaches #2FTSE LATIBEX: 16145   Dow Jones Industria...
Indian cyberterrorists destroy the CCPSFTSE LATIBEX: 8352   Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14758 Hang Seng: 38132          ...
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The Madness of Crowds  •   Leverage  •   Complexity  •   Risk  •   Herd Mentality                                     2045...
‘My daughter asked me when she came homefrom school, “What’s the financial crisis?” andI said, it’s something that happens...
“A mega financial crisis is becoming far morefrequent and likely to occur, due to globallyconnected risk and greed.”Chris ...
200 BC – 300 AD BOOM (500) – the Roman Empire               300 – 1100 BUST (800)       1100 – 1345 BOOM (245) - Renaissan...
“You can never plan the future by the past.”Edmund Burke, 1729 – 1797“My role is find the chink in the regulator’sarmour.”...
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
TodayInvest in:                           Buy• Mexico                             • Next generation tech• Colombia        ...
Chris Skinner @FSClub and @Chris_Skinner    www.thefinanser.com      © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
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ISITC - next major crisis

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ISITC - next major crisis

  1. 1. Chris Skinner @FSClub and @Chris_Skinner www.thefinanser.com © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. Don’t TELL Mum I work for a BANK© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  5. 5. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  6. 6. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. “I’d shut Apple down and give the money back to the shareholders” …An Apple PowerBook G3 250 cost $5,700inThe same in Apple stock is worth $330,563 FTSE100: 5073 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 6435 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. The Bad NewsThe next financial crisis is in 2045
  9. 9. The Good NewsWe will all make a shedload of money
  10. 10. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  11. 11. Dodd-Frank has 400 rules 286 have deadlines Regulators missed 1 in 4 Volcker rule delayedFTSE100: 5845 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13080 Hang Seng: 20900 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  12. 12. Massive FDI heads into: Turkey Indonesia Vietnam Mexico South AfricaFTSE100: 6002 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13125 Hang Seng: 22102 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) deadline is missed … SWIFT, FIX and FpML agree to disagreeFTSE100: 6205 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13414 Hang Seng: 23450 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  14. 14. Yuan free floatsChina sets up an Asian clearing system: the Chinese Clearance Processing System (CCPS)FTSE100: 6106 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13725 Hang Seng: 25106 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  15. 15. Volcker Rule leads to radical restructuring of bulge bracketFTSE100: 6724 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14525 Hang Seng: 27250 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  16. 16. TARGET2 for Securities finally goes liveFTSE100: 6770 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14801 Hang Seng: 29001 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  17. 17. The Eurozone divides as Spain defaultsFTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 30542 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  18. 18. Vickers rule separates UK retail and investment banksFTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 31260 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  19. 19. China becomes #1 global economyFTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 33444 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  20. 20. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  21. 21. TodayAmerica China• Unemployment • Maintaining growth• House prices • Reducing US• Oil prices dependency• Government deficits • House price bubble• Currency wars • Civil disobedience • Free floating the Yuan © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  22. 22. TodayEurozone Rest of World• Portugal • Social inclusion• Italy • Social unrest• Ireland • Political instability• Greece • Economic inbalances• Spain • Resources © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  23. 23. TodayCIVETS The Growth8• Columbia • Brazil• Indonesia • Russia• Vietnam • India• Egypt • China• Turkey • Indonesia• South Africa • Vietnam • Mexico • Turkey © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  24. 24. Today• Restoring Financial Stability • Deciphering “Russia, Inc.”• Setting the Right Green • Engaging an Emerging India Agenda • Revitalizing Ties to Latin• Exercising Smart Power America• Reimagining Global Trade • Supporting Africa’s Growth• Navigating China’s Rise Turnaround • Pursuing a Positive Agenda for the Middle East © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  25. 25. Reserve Bank of India launch alternative clearing system to CCPS, RBIXPFTSE100: 7007 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16021 Hang Seng: 37450 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  26. 26. China makes all clearing of yuan mandatory through CCPSFTSE100: 7232 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16805 Hang Seng: 39121 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  27. 27. The euro ceases to trade as a nationalcurrency in the ‘soft’eurozone countries, butcontinues as a denominated trading currency FTSE100: 7700 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17391 Hang Seng: 41001 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  28. 28. America’s new President Sheen (yes, Charlie) takes the oath of officeFTSE100: 8001 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17917 Hang Seng: 42223 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  29. 29. America’s new President Sheen (yes, Charlie) takes the oath of officeFTSE100: 8001 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17917 Hang Seng: 42223 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  30. 30. The USA requests that SWIFT remove North Korean banks from the network … EU forces SWIFT to agree … China develops alternative to SWIFTFTSE100: 8214 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19092 Hang Seng: 44141 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  31. 31. Great returns from investments in Latam, new Asian and emerging Africa … Increased social unrest in developed marketsFTSE100: 8575 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 20007 Hang Seng: 45732 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  32. 32. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  33. 33. Julian Assange (wikileaks) © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  34. 34. Aaron Barr © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  35. 35. Mark Zuckerberg (facebook) © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  36. 36. Mohamed Bouzzazi© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  37. 37. Molly Katchpole © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  38. 38. Satoshi Nakamoto (bitcoin)© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  39. 39. OWS picture© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  40. 40. India and China impose trade sanctions against each other over NepalFTSE100: 11330 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25115 Hang Seng: 49954 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  41. 41. Tensions in the Middle East becomeextreme as alternative fuels undermine oilFTSE100: 11501 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25473 Hang Seng: 51008 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  42. 42. The African Union Alliance is seen as the world’s sixth largest economyFTSE100: 11387 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25761 Hang Seng: 53756 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  43. 43. China’s RMB overtakes the dollar as the worlds major reserve currency [2012: 0.33% of world payments]FTSE100: 11422 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24992 Hang Seng: 56232 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  44. 44. The Chinese CCPS and regional currencysystems take over from the DTCC and SWIFT,in terms of global currency and trade volumes … India’s RBIX is a close fourth FTSE100: 11757 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25028 Hang Seng: 58732 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  45. 45. The UK government complete therehabilitation of the Royal Bank of Scotland FTSE100: 11761 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26163 Hang Seng: 59999 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  46. 46. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  47. 47. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  48. 48. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  49. 49. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  50. 50. Today• Macro-economic risk • Dodd-Frank• Credit risk • Volcker• Liquidity • Durbin• Capital availability • Vickers• Political interference • De Laroisiere• Regulation • Lagarde• Profitability • Geithner• Derivatives • Bernanke• Corporate governance • King• Quality of risk management • Dragi © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  51. 51. European Economic & Monetary Union is reworked into the European Regional Trade Agreement (ERTA)FTSE LATIBEX: 15121 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24031 Hang Seng: 61992 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  52. 52. Brazil, Colombia and Mexico agree a new trade pact with IndiaFTSE LATIBEX: 15741 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24532 Hang Seng: 62017 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  53. 53. America and China agree a new currency union, giving birth to the RenminbuckFTSE LATIBEX: 16362 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24815 Hang Seng: 63427 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  54. 54. Iran attacks Israel with a nuclear strike upon JerusalemFTSE LATIBEX: 16857 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19156 Hang Seng: 64152 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  55. 55. China imposes economic sanctions against India, as India’s economy reaches #2FTSE LATIBEX: 16145 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19353 Hang Seng: 63547 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  56. 56. Indian cyberterrorists destroy the CCPSFTSE LATIBEX: 8352 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14758 Hang Seng: 38132 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  57. 57. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  58. 58. The Madness of Crowds • Leverage • Complexity • Risk • Herd Mentality 2045 High LowDow Jones Industrial Average 14758 24815, 2042 13080, 2012Hang Seng 38132 63427, 2043 20900 2012FTSE100 6007 11757, 2038 5845, 2012FTSE LATIBEX: 8352 16857, 2044 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  59. 59. ‘My daughter asked me when she came homefrom school, “What’s the financial crisis?” andI said, it’s something that happens every fiveto seven years.’Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  60. 60. “A mega financial crisis is becoming far morefrequent and likely to occur, due to globallyconnected risk and greed.”Chris Skinner © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  61. 61. 200 BC – 300 AD BOOM (500) – the Roman Empire 300 – 1100 BUST (800) 1100 – 1345 BOOM (245) - Renaissance 1345 – 1637 BUST (292)1637 – 1720 BOOM (83) – Armada and New Worlds 1720 – 1830 BUST (110) 1830 – 1929 BOOM (99) – Industrial Revolution 1929 – 1955 BUST (26) 1955 – 2008 BOOM (53) – Technology Revolution 2008 – 2020 BUST (12) 2020 – 2045 BOOM (25) – West moves East 2045 BUST
  62. 62. “You can never plan the future by the past.”Edmund Burke, 1729 – 1797“My role is find the chink in the regulator’sarmour.”Salomon Smith Barney General Counsel, 1989“Greed is good.”Michael Douglas as Gordon Gecko inWall Street, 1987 © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  63. 63. © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  64. 64. TodayInvest in: Buy• Mexico • Next generation tech• Colombia stocks, including• Indonesia twitter and facebook• Vietnam • iPads and knowledge• Turkey • Chris Skinner’s books• South Africa © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
  65. 65. Chris Skinner @FSClub and @Chris_Skinner www.thefinanser.com © Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.

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