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2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends


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Top 10 small business trends for 2009 from Emergent Research. Includes economic, demographic and technology trends and shifts.

Presentation more detailed than live version to make it more self-explanatory

Published in: Business, News & Politics

2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends

  1. 1. 2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends May 29 th , 2009 Carolyn Ockels & Steve King Emergent Research
  2. 2. Emergent Research <ul><li>Our focus is identifying, analyzing and forecasting the trends and forces impacting small business. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>economic trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>social and demographic shifts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>impact of technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>changes in industrial structure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reports and resources: </li></ul><ul><li>Blog: </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: @smallbizlabs </li></ul><ul><li>Intuit Future of Small Business reports and resources: </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Entrepreneurial Economy is Here <ul><li>Small businesses: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employ over half of America’s private workforce. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generate over half of America’s non-farm GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create 60-80% of America’s net new jobs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extremely diverse in size, style and goals </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The Long Term Drivers of Economic Decentralization and the Growth of Small Business <ul><li>The Growth of Market Capitalism </li></ul><ul><li>Deregulation </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization </li></ul><ul><li>Information and Market Efficiency </li></ul>Three Eras of Transformation Leads to Growth of Small Business
  5. 5. 27 Million U.S. Small Businesses Only 17,000 businesses with more than 500 employees Large Small Business Mid Market Micro & Personal About 2/3 of Personal Businesses are Significant Contributors to Family Income Main Street Sources: Intuit Main Street Quant Survey 2006, Intuit Segmentation Survey 2008, US Census data 2008 & 2009, US BLS data 2008 & 2009, Emergent Research estimates 2009 $65k $31M 5-19 100 - 499 Average Revenues $1.2M $6.1M # of Firms 1.8M 630K 90K 24.5 M # of Employees 20-99 0-4
  6. 6. The Next Decade The New Artisan Economy <ul><li>Over 40 million U.S. small business by 2017 </li></ul><ul><li>Roughly 32 million personal businesses </li></ul><ul><li>Over 13% of Americans self employed </li></ul><ul><li>The new artisans will be knowledge workers, but many will make things </li></ul><ul><li>They will be amplified by technology and highly networked </li></ul>Source: New Artisan Economy research report (
  7. 7. 2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends <ul><li>Economic Trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The recession drives small business innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government plays an increasing role in the economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global infrastructure and stimulus spending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The number of small businesses will increase in 2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small business globalization will temporarily slow </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demographic Trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Baby boomer retirement problems leads them to small business </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gen Y turns to small business </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology Trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile computing continues strong growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud computing becomes mainstream for smallbiz </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small business use of online marketing tools expands </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. The Recession is Dominant Issue for Small Business in 2009 – And Drives Innovation <ul><li>Small businesses focus on cash flow, cost containment, customer retention and survival </li></ul><ul><li>Re-evaluate, re-design and refine all aspects of their business to create opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Improvements through incremental and business model innovation common </li></ul>Economic Trends
  9. 9. Government Plays an Increasing Role in the Economy <ul><li>Economic turmoil, corporate malfeasance and regulatory failure lead to greater global government economic oversight </li></ul><ul><li>Long term, global trend towards market capitalism still in place </li></ul><ul><li>Small business awareness of federal, state and local government policies and programs required </li></ul>Economic Trends
  10. 10. Global Infrastructure and Stimulus Spend <ul><li>Stimulus package will create or save 1.6 million small business jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Global stimulus spending over $1.5 trillion </li></ul><ul><li>Construction, clean tech, IT largest spending areas </li></ul>Economic Trends Source: The Stimulus Package: What it Means for Growing Businesses (
  11. 11. Small Business Numbers Will Increase in 2009 <ul><li>Job losses will lead to “necessity entrepreneurs” </li></ul><ul><li>Easier and cheaper to start a small or personal business than in prior recessions </li></ul><ul><li>Small business failure rates will increase, but net will be positive </li></ul>Economic Trends Source: Warrillow, SBA; employer businesses only.
  12. 12. Small Business Globalization Will Temporarily Slow <ul><li>Recession and currency market turmoil reduce export opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Small businesses will focus on local markets </li></ul><ul><li>Long term trend towards small business globalization will continue. </li></ul>Economic Trends
  13. 13. Baby Boomers Will Work Past Retirement Age <ul><li>Want to work </li></ul><ul><li>Want change & work/life balance </li></ul><ul><li>Skills, Ability, Flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Recession and stock market losses mean many will have to work. </li></ul>Small Business Formation by Age Avg 45-54 55-64 65+ 27% More likely to start a smallbiz Sources: Kauffman Foundation, US Census Demographic Trends
  14. 14. Generation Y Will Turn to Small Business <ul><li>Digital natives with excellent end user tech skills </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t trust corporations </li></ul><ul><li>Values oriented </li></ul><ul><li>Limited near term employment opportunities do to recession </li></ul>Percentage of Teens Who Want to Work For: % Someone Else Themselves Source: Gallup Poll Demographic Trends
  15. 15. Mobile Computing Continues Strong Growth <ul><li>Internet access devices </li></ul><ul><li>Smartphones </li></ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous WiFi </li></ul><ul><li>Cellular nets </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>Search </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud resources </li></ul>Technology Trends
  16. 16. Cloud Computing Becomes Mainstream for Small Business <ul><li>Lowers capital costs </li></ul><ul><li>Turns fixed costs into variable costs </li></ul><ul><li>Scalable solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Many cloud issues seen as advantages by small businesses: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reliability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Control of data </li></ul></ul>Technology Trends
  17. 17. Small Business Expands Use of Online Marketing <ul><li>Small business online presence growing </li></ul><ul><li>Growing understanding of online marketing </li></ul><ul><li>Starting to understand social media and search engine optimization </li></ul><ul><li>Clear metrics and ROI </li></ul><ul><li>Lead generation in a recession </li></ul>Technology Trends
  18. 18. 2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends May 29 th , 2009 Carolyn Ockels & Steve King Emergent Research