Homes, Jobs & Transport John Siraut Economist - Associate Director Colin Buchanan and Partners   Essex Planning Officers’ ...
Is it better to have homes and jobs located together, and are local links by car better or worse than longer commutes by t...
Presentation structure <ul><li>Homes </li></ul><ul><li>Work </li></ul><ul><li>Commuting </li></ul><ul><li>Economics, Plann...
Like Father like Son?
Housing demand -Essex <ul><li>Change in population  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1901-2001 1.1 to 1.6m </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cha...
Housing affordability
Housing starts
Housing tenure <ul><li>Tenure 1914 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Owned 10% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private rented 90% </li></ul...
Housing & mobility <ul><li>Homeowner -  average occupancy 15 years </li></ul><ul><li>Renter - average occupancy 10 years b...
Men & women <ul><li>1900 - workforce 70% male 30% female </li></ul><ul><li>1911 - 10% married women in work </li></ul><ul>...
Employees (Male & Female)
% in same job as 12 months ago <ul><li>51% of 18-24 year olds </li></ul><ul><li>71% lowest quartile of earnings  </li></ul...
Jobs & housing <ul><li>12.5% working population may change jobs each year </li></ul><ul><li>0.33% working population move ...
Method of travel to work 1890-2001 68 7 8 0 3 11 2001 45 19 16 0 5 13 1970-79 6 24 23 7 20 17 1940-49 0 15 5 17 2 56 1890-...
Commuting
Commuting  - Essex <ul><li>Average commute in Essex 8.6 miles </li></ul><ul><li>Ranges by ward from under 5 in parts of Co...
Mode of travel to work - Essex <ul><li>Up to 33% commute by underground in Epping </li></ul><ul><li>Over 40% commute by na...
Average trip length <ul><li>1985/6 1992/4 2003  P % increase  2003/1985 </li></ul><ul><li>Commuting 6.1 7.5 8.5 40% </li><...
% commuting by car
Travel costs <ul><li>In the last decade in real terms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All motoring costs fallen by 4% </li></ul></ul...
Car ownership <ul><li>1951 86% households had no car </li></ul><ul><li>2001 26% households had no car </li></ul><ul><li>20...
In summary <ul><li>Massive increase in households </li></ul><ul><li>Greater female participation in labour force </li></ul...
Implications <ul><li>People less likely to live close to where they work  </li></ul>
Economics V Planning V Environment  <ul><li>Free market economy - freedom to choose where we live, work and travel </li></...
Solutions <ul><li>Planning  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure homes and jobs are co-located </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More mix...
Solutions <ul><li>Tied housing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Distant past, common for employers to provide housing for employees <...
Solutions <ul><li>Increase travel costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport is to cheap leading to substantial unsustainable c...
Solutions <ul><li>London </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive increase in housing provision </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve ed...
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Homes jobs and transport

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Homes jobs and transport

  1. 1. Homes, Jobs & Transport John Siraut Economist - Associate Director Colin Buchanan and Partners Essex Planning Officers’ Association 28 October 2004
  2. 2. Is it better to have homes and jobs located together, and are local links by car better or worse than longer commutes by train ?
  3. 3. Presentation structure <ul><li>Homes </li></ul><ul><li>Work </li></ul><ul><li>Commuting </li></ul><ul><li>Economics, Planning, Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Solutions </li></ul>
  4. 4. Like Father like Son?
  5. 5. Housing demand -Essex <ul><li>Change in population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1901-2001 1.1 to 1.6m </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Change in household size </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1901-2001 4.6 to 2.4 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Extra households </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1901-2001 240k to 670k </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>110k due to increase in population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>320k due to smaller household size </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Housing affordability
  7. 7. Housing starts
  8. 8. Housing tenure <ul><li>Tenure 1914 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Owned 10% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private rented 90% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tenure 2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Owned 69% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social rented 19% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private rented 10% </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Housing & mobility <ul><li>Homeowner - average occupancy 15 years </li></ul><ul><li>Renter - average occupancy 10 years but 20% less than 12 months </li></ul><ul><li><35 year olds - average occupancy 3 years </li></ul><ul><li>60% of movers stay within 5 miles </li></ul><ul><li>13% of moves are job related (of which 1/3 new job with new employer) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Men & women <ul><li>1900 - workforce 70% male 30% female </li></ul><ul><li>1911 - 10% married women in work </li></ul><ul><li>2011 - 69% men, 57% women will be economically active </li></ul>
  11. 11. Employees (Male & Female)
  12. 12. % in same job as 12 months ago <ul><li>51% of 18-24 year olds </li></ul><ul><li>71% lowest quartile of earnings </li></ul><ul><li>74% of private sector employees </li></ul><ul><li><75% of 25-34 year olds </li></ul><ul><li>80% in rented accommodation </li></ul><ul><li>83% of public sector employees </li></ul><ul><li>85% highest quartile of earnings </li></ul><ul><li>86% of 50+ year olds </li></ul><ul><li>89% of all parents </li></ul><ul><li>91% own accommodation outright </li></ul>
  13. 13. Jobs & housing <ul><li>12.5% working population may change jobs each year </li></ul><ul><li>0.33% working population move house to take up a new job with a new employer each year </li></ul>
  14. 14. Method of travel to work 1890-2001 68 7 8 0 3 11 2001 45 19 16 0 5 13 1970-79 6 24 23 7 20 17 1940-49 0 15 5 17 2 56 1890-99 Car Train Bus Tram Cycle Walk
  15. 15. Commuting
  16. 16. Commuting - Essex <ul><li>Average commute in Essex 8.6 miles </li></ul><ul><li>Ranges by ward from under 5 in parts of Colchester to 13 miles in parts of Braintree </li></ul><ul><li>About 1/3 of males in Essex commute out of the county for work </li></ul>
  17. 17. Mode of travel to work - Essex <ul><li>Up to 33% commute by underground in Epping </li></ul><ul><li>Over 40% commute by national rail from Chafford </li></ul><ul><li>Over 10% commute by bus in Colchester </li></ul><ul><li>Over 80% drive in Uttlesford & Braintree </li></ul><ul><li>Around 40% drive in Southend </li></ul><ul><li>Almost 10% cycle in Harwich </li></ul><ul><li>Over 1/3 walk in Uttlesford </li></ul>
  18. 18. Average trip length <ul><li>1985/6 1992/4 2003 P % increase 2003/1985 </li></ul><ul><li>Commuting 6.1 7.5 8.5 40% </li></ul><ul><li>Business 17.3 17.6 20.9 21% </li></ul><ul><li>Education 2.1 2.8 3.0 46% </li></ul><ul><li>Escort education 1.4 1.8 2.1 51% </li></ul><ul><li>Shopping 2.9 3.5 4.3 48% </li></ul><ul><li>Visiting friends 6.7 7.8 9.2 37% </li></ul><ul><li>Entertainment 6.0 7.9 8.1 35% </li></ul><ul><li>All purposes 5.2 6.1 6.9 33% </li></ul>
  19. 19. % commuting by car
  20. 20. Travel costs <ul><li>In the last decade in real terms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All motoring costs fallen by 4% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bus fares increased by 11% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Car purchase costs fallen by 30% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>London commuter rail fares fallen by 6% </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Car ownership <ul><li>1951 86% households had no car </li></ul><ul><li>2001 26% households had no car </li></ul><ul><li>2001 28% households had 2 cars </li></ul>
  22. 22. In summary <ul><li>Massive increase in households </li></ul><ul><li>Greater female participation in labour force </li></ul><ul><li>Massive increase in car ownership </li></ul><ul><li>Switch from home renting to ownership </li></ul><ul><li>Travel is cheap </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in house prices </li></ul><ul><li>Greater job mobility </li></ul>
  23. 23. Implications <ul><li>People less likely to live close to where they work </li></ul>
  24. 24. Economics V Planning V Environment <ul><li>Free market economy - freedom to choose where we live, work and travel </li></ul><ul><li>Planning - land use allocations not determined by free market </li></ul><ul><li>Environment - transport is generally not sustainable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2 emissions - car output 3.6 * rail </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Solutions <ul><li>Planning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure homes and jobs are co-located </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More mixed use developments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Worker homes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But job mobility is higher than housing mobility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In Milton Keynes 20% of population commute out and 25% of jobs are taken from outside </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Solutions <ul><li>Tied housing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Distant past, common for employers to provide housing for employees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent past most tied housing gone eg police </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Present, move towards increase in tied accommodation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduces labour mobility and introduces economic inefficiencies in the market </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Solutions <ul><li>Increase travel costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport is to cheap leading to substantial unsustainable commuting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Would lead to major changes in spatial demand for housing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Politically unacceptable - impossible to put the genie back in the bottle </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Solutions <ul><li>London </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive increase in housing provision </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve education especially in the inner city </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tackle crime </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve public transport in outer London </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduce cordon charges for travel into Greater London </li></ul></ul>

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