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Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 1 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 2 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 3 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 4 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 5 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 6 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 7 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 8 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 9 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 10 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 11 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 12 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 13 Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" Slide 14
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Future prediction theory "SINIC theory"

Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" that realized the social image drawn 50 years ago.

The SINIC theory is a future prediction method that OMRON founder Kazuma Tateisi developed and presented at the International Future Research Conference in 1970. Announced in the midst of Japan's rapid-paced economic growth, before PCs and the Internet even existed, this theory drew a highly accurate picture of society up to the middle of the 21st century, including the appearance of the Information Society.

SINIC stands for Seed-Innovation to Need-Impetus Cyclic Evolution. According to the SINIC theory, science, technology and society share a cyclical relationship, mutually impacting and influencing each other in two distinct ways. In one direction, scientific breakthroughs yield new technologies that help society to advance. In the other direction, social needs spur on technological development and expectations for new scientific advancement. Thus, both of these factors affect each other in a cyclical manner, propelling further social evolution.

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Future prediction theory "SINIC theory"

  1. 1. uDC 001189:65,012.1/2 未来・接近へのSINIC理論 立石一真*・山本通隆紳・今   勲紳* SINIC ThooW.A皿Appmach to the F耐11re K.Tateisi*.M.Yamamoto*一*.I.Kon紳* 1. I皿trOduCtiOm  工t is need1ess to say that in the progress and development of the human society, science and techno1ogy bave made a great contribution in drasticany changing the structu1=e and course of the soρiety,which is recognized as“Technological innovation”.  Technological innovations have occurred discontinuous1y and thoroughly changed th−e social stmcture being promoted by the economic factors,their accumu1ated and a㏄e1erated inertia is ever more threatening the deepest roots and fundamental stmctures of our very existence,the values of our human society and culture. We wi11introduce thie SINIC theory−An approach to the future.   SINIC is an abbreviation for Seed−Imovation & Need−Impetus Cyclic Evolution of Technologica1innovation,being accidenta11y ana1ogous to the CYNIC theory of Greek phi− 1osophers’schoo1−the essence of virtue is se肚一。ontrol,  The SINIC theory consists of exp1oring and forecasting what society presumably,at1east with a high plausibility,might be bound to appear,if the autonomous forces now at work in socia1history were going to proceed in a possible,desirable and realized way.              2. ImterreIatiom Amo皿g Scie皿。e,Techno1ogy amd Socie11y−   Looking back On the history of technological innovation,it is noted that technology makes rapid progress with great spin off heteronomous1y by receiving Seed from science and Need from the society.WhiIe,technology.in tum causes Imovation in the society and gives necessary Impetus to science.A㏄ording1y,the evo1utive interre1ation among science, techno1ogy and society cou1d be understood,as shown in Fig.!,to be the Seed−Innovation &Need_Impetus Cyclic Evolution of Techno1ogical innovation_that is,the SINIC theory.                    3.Ten neve1opme皿tal S曲ges of舳e Soφe蚊   Fig.2shows a long−range trend of GNP per head from the Prehistric era up to A.D. 2033.   GNP per head for the most advanced society at each era wou1d be assumed to be the standard of dividing the deve1opment of the human society into ten different stages,to− gether with considerations of epochmaking historica1events and normative predictions of the future society.  ヰ立石電機株式会社 社長 舳立・石電機株式会社 専務取締役 中央研究所所長 ‡榊立石電機株式会社中央研究所 研究企画室  ヰPre雪ident,OMRON Tatei昌i Electroηic昌Co. 榊Director,OMRON R&D L目boratorie昌,OMRON Tateisi E1ectro口ics Co. 榊MP Re昌earch Department,OMRON R&D L且bor目tories,0MRON Tateisi Electroηic宮Co. 780(26) OMRON TECHN】CS
  2. 2. R&D ろ㌔    ㌦ 劣。  σ  き 8 ぷ   さ Progre昌s−oriented   }olitio11V   Eduo前10n ,  D1soiplin直 M詞一1二deSirO ノ ._、∴\ 松仇、,’ dP T Soo1目」ProOrossP [一]・一 二、…、ノ Fig.1 SINIC diagram 7冊 GNPl〕orh03d 1$i1965〕 40000 ’ ’ Oi〕t1miエ宮tio11 ’ ! SOdety !! ・多 5000 ! Oybern3tioll St目11d日rd]11it=U .S. ollarin1965 ! ! 〃 ’ 昌。o旧ty Da13sow㏄=1.UN 5000 2.Thり。刮r2000 byH信rmalrKohn& / 一,■■ L I一』皿’⊥一 一 Autom目tio1/ Ant1101/y」W」o11o 舳L+型O ’ Note: ●Great目r’目111 M冒。h刮1iza11on l l 共U.S.A. soojety ’USSR フOO O」al〕日11 111dustrla」1一 Z3tlO11 「 so〇一〇1y 300 Hand1or3舌ユ 昌ooiety 170 H 一 AOrlo]lturo 昌oololy 100 i旦■  !ノ _L Collootlw ’ soolo寸y ’ 50一 ’ _L ■ ’ ’ Pr−m1廿1w sooi剛 lO 1  5   2   1  5   2 X/Oヨ昌」C. X lOi目.C一 186 4 2140 X lO■目.C. 460 日.C. 1040 154017ヰ01840 /94019702000 2020 2030 Y冊r Fig.2 Long_range trend o‡GNP per head Vol.ユO No.3 (27) ∫87
  3. 3. (1)Primitive society(1000M B,C.一12M B1C.),GNP per耳ead:1ess than$50  Man    came to exist on the earth.He started to ask questions,exp1ore his enjoyment possi・    bilities and wanted to determine his own fate,while keeping the highest place of    dignity and motivation power in harmonious balance and fixed order.He surrendered    to any experience as ultimate proof of truth with everything inc1uding himse1f,      Man’s greatest scientific discovery−the use of fire and his greatest invention−1an・    guage go far back in this prehistoric time,Furthermore,bows and arrows,manufacture    of earthenware and so on were invented. (2)Co11ective society(12M B.C.一700B.C.),GNP per head:$50一$100 The transition    of food gathering to food growing is the main feature of this society.That is,raising    of domestic anima1s,cu1tivation of1and,and construction of stone buildings were    introduced.The social form developed from the famiIy community into a c1an.This    change is ca11ed “Socia1ization” and the four greatest civilization rose. Exact    observation and record of nature started the primary sciences in such fie1ds as astron−    omy,mathem早tics,meta11urgy and anatomy were developed. (3) Agricu1ture society(700B.C.一1302),GNP per head l$100一$170  This Period saw    widely spread agricu1ture,a rise of new commercial and industrial classes with the    appearance of monetary economy.The Athenian Civilization was at the zenith of    prosperity,when ancient science was developed amazingly since the beginning by    Tha1es in the seventh century B.C.      In addition to the Roman Civi1ization,the frequent1y undertaken crusades between    the years of Mediaeva1Age1096and1291intensified the development with such    general effects asξreater awareness of the wor1d about,the greater demand for    improved traditional technics and the increased circu1ation of coinage. ω Handicraft society(1302−765),GNP per head:$170一$300 This period marks a    transition from Agricu1tura1society to Industrialization society.The inventions of a    mariner’s compass,gun powder and printing paved the way for a deve1opment of    handicraft.The Renaissance Period witnessed the deve1opment of various branches    of fundamenta1science necessary to provide techno1ogy for the next Industria1ization    SOCiety.      Leonard Da Vinch took the role of pioneer of Modern science&Technology.And    later on,Modem science was estab1ished by Gali1ei,Newton and others.      In the meantime,after the discoveries of the New Wor1d and the Indian route,    England enjoyed the maritime suPeriority a11over the wor1d with the first modem    joint stock companies.Within the comtry,the civil revo1utions such as the Puritan    Revolution and the Glorians Revo1ution removed the restriction on Production there    before exercised by guiIds and estab1ished the freedom of the industriaI bourgeois    thereby opening the main road for capitalism. (5〕Industrialization society(1765−1876),GNP per head: $300一$700  .The Industria1    Revolut1on(1760t01830)mvo1ved the subst1tut1on of machmery for hand too1s,the    introduction of the factory system and the rise of mass production.      As more and more manufacturers began to tum to steam power to run their    machines,the Industria1Revo1ution gained momentum,and mass production became    more preva1ent,which accelerated the growth of the moderp.capita1istic society. In    1825,the fifst cyc1ic depression occurred,that is a sign of high1y deve1oped capitalistic    society.In1857,the first financia1panic on a world−wide sca1e started.      The18th and19th centurie3saw three major revolutions,i.e,the Industria1Revo1u−     tion in England,the po1itica1revo1ution in France and the phi1osophica.1revo1ution in    Germany. (6)Mechanization society(1876−1945),GNP per head:$700一$2500  ・Advances in    scientific know1edge have1ed to advances in technology.And from1870toユ920took    p1ace the2nd Industria1Revo1ution especia11y in electric power,automobi1e,machinery ’8.2 (28)              .       .                  0MR0N TEcHN1cs
  4. 4.    and chemical industry,and in addition to the existing traditiona11ight industries,    expansion and strengthening of heavy chemica1industries were seen.The rise of    these new indus−tries resulted in the creation of mi11ions of new jobs.At the same    time in Germany,a renovation of the patent system and a systematization of educa・    tion were carried out as one program for promotion of science and techno1ogy,    which reflected the mounting competition among capitalistic comtries.Futhermore,    the research activities by giant monopo1istic enterprises gradua11y became organized・      In the United States,the Nationa1Research Counci1was established after the end    of World War I as a pemanent organ to solve various technologica1prob1ems afising    as a resu1t of the war.Under the counci1,1arge−sca1e research organizations such as    ρo11eges,state or private research ins」titutes were estab1ished.      To cope with such new development of various kinds of industria1equipment,a    new big stride in the pro墓ress of technology was essential;more precise production    techniques and mass production of machine tools.      It was for such mass production purposes that a scientific method of production    control was developed by Tai1or,Meanwhile,the way for automation was being    paved by the systematization of machine techniques and deve−opment of automatic    machines.      In the20th century,Einstein established・his mass_energy equation,which in later    days resu1ted in technology,whereby a huきe amount of energy condensed in the form    of mass can be released. (7)Automation society (1945−1974),GNP per head:$2500一$5000    Remarkab1e    techno1ogical innovations took p1ace from1940t01960,the features of which may be    summarized as follows:   (a)Growth of concentrated science type of industries(such as chemic耳1,electropics,      aerona食tics and nuclear Power industries)   (b)Wide−spread use of synthetic materials  く。)Introduction of NC(numerica1control)machine tools and e1ectronic contro1tech−      no1ogy with comPuter  (d)Deve1opment of systematic method(system engineering)  (e)Promotion of big R&D Projects by the government      Automation which had stemmed from mechanization became widely used in indus−    tries as mechanica1automation,business automation and process automation by    means of computers having feed−back contro1function.      Economy became more and more intemationa1and the activities of world enterprises    became further intensified.And in business,the stress shifted from the conventional    stab1e market to the continuous deve1op卿ent of new products.ConsequentIy,the    concept of a business fie1d also shifted to the widest definition−a system aiming at a    function,as D Schon says,which is more particular1y described as fo11ows:  (a)Gigantic products of which number of component parts exceeds the order of105      (such aS1arge−size comPuters,jet P1anes,rockets,etc.)  (b〕System industries having compIicated sub−systems(such as educational system,      data processing system,ocean exPloitation system,city develoPment system) (8) Cybernation society (1974_2005),GNP per head:$5000_$ユ5000    In the socia1    backgromd described−be1ow,the human beings in this society wi11be freed from    such disregard of humanity as were necessari1y fomd in Mechanization and Automa−    tion societies and will establish their subjectivity and responsibi1ity.      This wiIl be a creative period where we can find a1ife worth1iving,as follows:  (a) The importance of informational function wi11 be greatly increased resu1ting in the      enhancement of selective functio口.  (b) ApProach to and Practical aPP1ication of−quantification of eva1uation standards      unde士ever changing va1ue system. 帆1・M・                」 (29)1占3
  5. 5.    (c)0ptimization know1edge as a result of combination of1ogic and sen.timent.    (d) POpularization of higher education.    (e)Diversification of individua1consumption.    (f)Advancement of service economy.    (9)Diversification of the activities of big businesses prompted by the socia1requirements.    ω Practical−application of such intellectua1techno1ogy as we11 enab1e “contro1ed       experiments”and“plans high1y likely to be a success”in the socia1,economic,       industrial,manageria1and other fields.    (i)Generalization of new soft techno1ogical syst♀ms,such as coding and systematization       beyond the level of conventiona1individual technology.    (j)Introduction o・f automation plants reIieving man from simp1e1abor,    Gd Generalization of man−machine system for岬.ech&nization in the so1ution of typica1       Problems.    (1)Wide app1ication and development of cybemetics in comection with1ife science,       that may be tentative1y ca11ed biocybemetics,i.e,bionetics. (9)Optimization society(2005−2025),GNP per head:$15000_$40000  In this society,      individual and socia1desires of men and women wi11change,and a function of finding.      out the best route to satisfy such desires win be deve1oped−       Thus,increased se1ective function for the optimal information will enab1e man to      find the most suitable and p1easant job,according to his own individual ability.       And this wi111ead to the optimization of the who1e society1Subsequent1y,a method      will be invented and put into practical use wherein an men and women(including      those whose knowledge leve11s so low as to be well rep1aced by machmes)can be      given a job which wi11 make them feel worthy mder the socia1circumstances of      ζeviving tl■e arts and crafts and of making personal services more respectable.       The individua1and the society are in what may be ca11ed a dualisdca11y monistic      relation.In terms of systematics,tota1system and the sub−system are we11 balanced      in their respective directions toward optimization.We should Iike to call this an      optima1combination of optimization.In this society,the nature of knowledge itse1f      which has passed through the preCeding Cybemation society wi11mdergo a major      change and know1edge wi11come to occupy the most important position for everybody.       Thus,the development of techniques for optimization of the entire socia1system      wi11make the who1e society more normative and with the he1p of high1y advanced      science a台d techno1ogy wi11enabIe a contro1of natura1’human environments,and      human nature itself.       Particu1arly,menta1phenomena wou1d be treated with in the fie1d of tentatively      called psycho−bionetics,i.e,Psychonetics. 伽.。Autonomous society(2025_2033),GNP per head:more than$40000  This society      represents a transition form the.societies of conscious control beginning with the      C・u・・ti・・P・・i・dt・th・N・t…1…i・ty・f…一・g・t・・L       The human beings who1ive in this society!are required to have undergone a rea1     change,since oth6rwise there is a fear that they may be enervated in such an order1y      wor1d where there is no real struggle for existenc・e,because through the1ong history     of mankind they have been much indebted for their progress to their resistant power      evinced・in the face of three struggles mentioned by B,Russe1;the strugg1e with     nature圭the strugg1e with other humans and the struggle with nature,the stmggIe      with other humans and the strugg1e with themselves.       一What may serve as motivation stimlus and reward in a pemanently aff1uent      1eiSure・SOCiety P       Thanks to the high1y advanced supe卜psycho1ogy and re1ated fie1ds,that may     tentatively・be・℃a11ed.Metapsychonetics,each member of the society wi11be enab1ed     to act autonomously without being troub1ed by actua1ized contro1s from the society or  ’84 (80)                                          oMR0N TEcHNIcs
  6. 6.      by himself,The latter case could be dimly seen in the grown−up being ab1e to operate     with the maximum use of his power potential,part1y because he has realized its     rough1imitations.The value resides only in the creation of something new and the     members of the society will be able to1ive beyond their natural span of life.       The c1arification of the super−psychologica1phenomena wi11tremendous1y increase     the human capabi1ities and as a still higher society,a natura1society wi11be sought     after as the Utopia for mankind.By that time any temporary confusion caused by     super−techno1ogical imovations to cope with such supe卜psychologica1phenomena may     have been overcome.The technique of face−to・face communication between individuals     wi11reach the highest stage of development where they can even communicate with     each in some telepathica1mamer.       Due to such human revo1utions,the human society,emerging out of the miserable     and atrocious dark eras where ignorance and greed dominated wi11be entirely trans−     formed into a society where the wisdom and goodwi11of man prevail and peace and     human life are of supreme importance.Thus,what we can Autonomous society has     been realized. (11)Natura1society(the future after2033) The human society wi11develop from the     vi11age community in Optimization Period to the clan in Autommous Period and     further to the family community in this Natura1society.It is noted that the form     of the human society cyc1ica11y comes back to that of−the primitive society,though     these two forms of society are on different p1anes. Ago          Sooioty T001111010酬          SUiolr00 1000M目C 12M日.C. フOO目.C. A.D.1302 1st.lnd.R帥。l]tloll   A一口.1765 2−/d.lnd−RE}ol]tlolr   A.D.1876 A]廿。n/目[ionR帥。lL1tloll     ^.D.19−5 CybE[/目甘1on REvolutlo11     A.口.1974 目1o1/訓10nR凹。lL」一〇11    A.D.2005 Psyoho11目tlo11R〔・㌔lol]tli〕lr     A−D.2025              一一    “                              く}    ・山一1j・伽舳r一一■;こ;.■一1∠αh’切 一    R・・Oi・舳1r  !     1   ウ      A口2㎎3 1 舳旧tソー一一」 Pr−m■tIw Primlt∼o 昌。o岨tソ rOl」90011 “ 。P[mltivo t㏄h■11os 一\. ◇ Collootiw サ Prim3rソ soolotソ 昌Oi01100 “ Tradi士io」1a」 tooh1110宮 ㌔ φ ㌔一 ^口no]llしlro ◇ Anoie■11 昌㏄1目tソ SOlO1100 “ ㌔H日1/d」or目ft 廿Oじ11nlOS ㌔㌧ サ H日ndloraft 号 R0113■ss3noe 昌。o1日ty 昌OlO1100 サ 一一一一 黷Pn−u昌tri日11エ〔・d t㏄h110≡OOy ◇ 一 1[duStr■日11Z日tiO11 サ Moderlr s㏄1帥 宮。lon帆一 M〇一er1/ “ t0011110−OOy 号 Mξoh高□」z目t1o■r サ Oontrol …oo≡et} soio[oe H一」 廿  ALltOn1且tlO 鼈黷煤B、ilr−1.1。叩 oolrtn〕1’ ⑰ AutOmOtiOn ㌔ 筍oo1Ety サ C伽川帥os サ 一Elootro11100011甘rol t岨111110109y 号 Cyber11atloll 昌ooloty ◇ 目一〇110tlOS ψ 一BloloOl1旧1 OO11trOl tOli1111口109y 号 ㌧ Ol〕1lmlZ舳Ol/ soo」E甘y サ Psソdlon喧t’o昌 “ Psylho−blolo9舳」 lOOhllO■OOソ 号 A]tO11㎝/0L1昌 sooi自ty 号 Mot目一1〕syol/o1lelios ^ 一⊥ lot日一1〕syoholo重」o ■    一 ■ 打 ■                       》S冊d   〉No巳(1                       〉ll1llO蝸t:Ol・  レ1・1■1・t・・ Fig,3 SINIC diagram of th・e ten socia1stages Vo1.10 No.} (3ユ)ノ85
  7. 7.        In the dua1istic monistic re1ationship between mind and matter,and time and space,      vita1ity springs up and the p1easure of1ife is sought after.        As is clear from the above explanation,Autonomous society which is positioned at      the end of one cyc1e in the Cyc1ic EvoIution is now just around・the comer.   At present,such spiritua1or psycho1ogica1phenomenon as te1epathy or appearance of a ghost is considered to be something remote from science.In the near future,however, such phenomenon wi11present itself as a very important problem for us.Filg.’ Rshows the ten deve1opmental stages of the society and the re1ated science and technology projected into the future through the SINIC diagram.                   4.M批hematica1Approach to Socia1Progress 41The胆。gressivo㎝岬e of s㏄iety  We assume that the states of the Ten Develop・ menta1Stages of Society can be interpreted as the1evel of socia1progress being marked off from O to1.O.Then,we get the broken line,as shown in Fig.4by taking common 1ggarithm of the years back from A.D.2033along the abscissa.   The solid curve shown in Fig.4is the first−order approximation of the broken curve and can be represented by the fo11owing equation.                                 P=exp(一αTβ)                      (1)   Where P is the level of socia1progress,T is the common1ogarithm of the years back from A.D.2033,and                                 α こ 0.1304                                 β=2,044   Equation(1)has the fo1Iowing mathematical characteristics   (1) when T→oo, P→0;   (2)一when T→ 0, P→1.0; 1.2 1.O O.畠 圧 。 O.6   0.4 」 O.2 1 N臼t]ml soli!oty 、 一 、  、 `lltolloト、㌔     、 D■/10uSSO川Olソ、1 Ol〕11mlz目11011 .\       、 、 、 、 Cyhol−llatlo;1 、 、 sooioty 、 、 AulOnlO!iOn 、 昌。{loモソ       、           、 i MrU11□lllz□tloll 、 ,ooioly 、 、 111一]昌tr1目11ZヨtlO11 、  M訓hem日110日’一y sooloty \ 岬 od 、 P.。一〇rミ。・・一一^ Hn11d」cro寸t 〆、 ^ 、  、 }舳α11州11パr.945, O.6〕 昌。o≡引y Aoτ]31& 、    、 Agrl㎝1山r・ ost1m邑tod  、 1 、 soolc言y i i i Collo■tl)o SOOlOty 』1 Pr11111tiw      一 r㏄ir1y  1 1““」1      一一 一 0                         2 3          4          5           Ymr一円。k廿romA.D.2033. T1一■oO.,」t Fig,4 Progressive curve of the ten social stages ノ86(32) OMRON TECHNICS
  8. 8.   (3) when in」f1ection point,T=1,945,P=O.6.   We shall discuss a few points about the pattem of social progress shown in Fig.4.   Firstly,we might reasonab1y expect th盆t the social progress is controlled−by some“1aw of nature”The two m1tla1cond1tlons for the pattem of soc1a1progress m1ght be the man,s basic.desire for higher standards of1iving and his use of tools.The 1atter evo1ved so remarkab1y in the form of technoIogy as to threaten even the d−eepest f00ts and fmdamental structures of our very existence,the va1ues of our buman society and cu1ture.AccordiI1g1y, so1ong as the two initial conditions are maintained without any change,the future society after A.D.2033might be rather stagnating.That wi11be mathematica11y demonstrated 1ater.   Secondly,the progress rate dカ/励 can be obtained by using the change rate of socia1 progress6P/dT and T=1og1o古,that is,                  。ap    6p   6τ     0.4343  aP                      =   ・  =   一                        (2)                   励  6丁 励   K  dT−   where K=10T,the time−sca1e factor,that is the factor of acce1erating the socia1change asτbecomes smalIer with calender time.   Therefore,the progress rate”ノ励might be defined tentative1y as the“apparent progress rate of society”,corresPonding to the“qualitative change rate of society” aP/6T that can be measured independently of the time−sca1e factor K in the semi−log graphきhown in Fig.4.   It should be noted that   at T=0,il e.  A.D.2032,  K=1.   then,                       6P       6P                           =04343                                 {3)                       批    ’  ゴT   Third1y,at the inf1ection point(T=1,945,P=O.6)the qua1itative change rate of society becomes the maximum.亘ence,it may be interpreted as{o11ows:It was on the advent of Automation society around A.D.1945that the most advanched society at that time was subjected to the biggest qua1itative change in the pattern of social prog1;ess of the type. 4.2S㏄ia1Pm駆ess and I㎜o柵tivemss Man’s desire takes an important role parti㎝一 1ar1y in the relationship between the society amd techno1ogy.   From the SINIC diagram shown in Fig.2,the fo11owing fmctional relationships can be obtained:                       P=九(∫,T)                 (4)                                  6P                       ト九(P・・π1γ)          (1)                       ∂P                      π一九(Pl∫・γ・T)         (1)   where P is the leve1of social Progress,∫is the Ieve1of innovativeness,T is the lgga− rithm of the years back from A.D.2033,andγis the progress−oriented vo1ition.   Hereby,the innovativeness may be defined as the degree of innovating society through Techno1ogical Innovation,Social Revolution,Cultural RevoIution and Consciousness Revo1u・ tion,i.e.the degree of progress feasibility of society.   And the Progress−oriented volition is genera11y raised by the higher level of achievement motivation,which is actua11y a fmction of changing economic,socia1and religious con・ ditions in the culture.  In order to evaluate∫mathematica1Iy,the fo11owing hypotheses have been on the basis Of equatiOnS (1),(4),{5)and (6):                                       F                    Hyp・th・…∫γ:P          (・)                    ・…t…i・∬:多利一γ(・一・)    (・) Vol.10 No.3 (33)ノ87
  9. 9.   where F is the psychological factor inc1uding personal ability and desire,0<万く1.0. Then,using Hypotheses∫and∬we see−that                       6P    f ’       ∫                       〃一P.(トp)一F(P−1)      (9)   where∫/P mムy be ca11ed the“fact6r of p士。gress feasibi1ity”.   From equation(9)we suppose that the deterrant of d6ve1opment of society might be the psychological」 ?≠モ狽盾窒h and the factor of progress feasibility,耳eglecting the in{1uences of suc止 external conditions as decreasing Per caPita potential resources of the earth,and so on.  Now we consider what is an expression for/with a variab1e of the psycho1ogical factor F that w111 make1t poss1ble to follow up the pattem of soc1a1progress of the type shown in Fig.41  From equation(1)we get ,  2 」 / / / / / 、い〕 \ \〕    、、/3〕      、、        \ P=e・πT \ 0        1 \ 1\ \\. 1キー・!l1・.÷皿β・/−r{ Psソ。holoO1o目1f邑。tor  〃一〇.1304  β一2−044 ’ {1〕F・二〇一1 {2)F−O.5 (3〕F=1.O \ \ 、 、ミ 「⊥旧■ 2       3       4        5 Ye趾b目。k廿。m^。D.2033,T=loglot Socia1progress& inndvativeness 1.O ’88(34) Fig.5 O.O OMRON TECHNlCS
  10. 10.                      aP                           =αβT戸1exp(一αT■)                      aT Using equations(9)and.(1①wb find that the progressiveness,                     ∫一…(一α・j)/・・去αβ・/一・…(一α・1)/ ロー 「 (1) FmlorofoOr〔ssfoosjllli y F1Psyolrolo9」onlf日。tor n・=。O.1304 β’2.044 1  1   一_・・1+一一πβ丁万一1o’’T o β (1〕F=0.1 !21F=O.5 1311F−1.O 1121  1 一一 ’ 、 ’ 、 ’ 、 一 、 、 ’ 、 、 ’ 、 / 13〕 、 ! 、 ’ !一 f 、 一 、 ノ 、 ノ 、\  一 、    ’ ^/ノ’ ㌔ 、 、 } ! ’、   一一 __ 、一 齠 』_ 一    一 一一一一 一  一口皿■ 2032 2023 1933        1033 目.G.7467 B.〇一98M   昌一G−998M Vo1, lO No.3     2       3       4    Y〔皿1旧。k叶。mA.D−2033.T:」oglot Fig.6 Factor of progress feasibility 5        6 ω (lD (35)789
  11. 11.   the factor of Progress feasibility,                   ∫      1                   P=1+FαβTβ一’・・p(一”)        (1動   and the change rate of innovativeness,       券一穿・1一…(一α・1)/…α1・1一・…(一α・/)一βテ1…(一α・!)/⑱   Here,a∫/aTl and la∫/励i might1〕e tentative1y ca11ed the“qualitative chal=ige rate of innova・ t1veness”and the“apparent change l=ate of1nnovat1veness”,respectively ln correspOndence with ldPμTl and16P/釧.   Fig.5shows the variations of P and∫witbτforα=0.ユ304,β=2,044,a蔵d F=0.1,一0.5,1.O.   From this it may be mentioned that for smaller values of F,the innovativeness of society ∫shou耳d be bigger,otherwise it is impossib1e to follow up the prospective pattem of social ProgreSs,   Fig.6shows the variation of the factor of progress feasibility〃P with T for F=0ユ, O.5,1.O.   From this the fo11owing information emerges independently of the psycholog」ica1factor F:   (I〕〃P reached maximum at the same time as iaP〃ηi.e,at      T=1,945,A.D.1945;   (2)〃P fans down to∫at T=0,i.e.A.D.2032,that means the stagnation of the most      advanced society in A.D.2032.   Fig.7shows the variations of laPμηand l〃μτi withτforα二〇.1304andβ=2・044・   Frdm tbis the times at which the maximum and.minimum vahles of laPμTl and l”μη were giveh can be obtained as fo11ows:   (1)For Max{16P/〃1}T=1,945 i.e.A.D.1945.   12)ForMax{la∫/〃1}    (a)when F=O,1, T=2,346 i.e,A.D.1811,                       T=0,138 i.e.A.D.2032;    (b) when F=O.5, T=2.2.61 i.e.A.D.1850,                       T=0,077 i.e.A.D.2032;    (c) when F二1.0, T=2,231 il e.A.D.1863,                       T=O.050 i.e.A.D.2032.  (3) For Min{「δP/6Tl} T=O   i.e.A.D.2032.  (4)For Min{1”/”「}    (a) when F=0.1, T=1,277 i.e.A.D12014;    (b)when F=0.5, T=O.969 i.e.A.D.一2024;    (c).when F=1.0, T=0,512 i.e.A.D.2030.  Referrin富to serious historica1afiairs aromd the above−mentioned times that had over・・ wheIm1㎎mf1uences over the subsequent human soc1ety.We fmd that m1848the“Mamfest der Kommunistischen Partei”was written by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels at the request of their fellow members of the Bund der Kommunisten(Communist League)and published in London a few weeks later.  It is primari1y a propaganda documement ca11ing for action and was issused just on the eve of the revolutions which swept Europe in1848fo11owed by1arge−scale outflows of brain from EuroPe to tbe Unit♀d States・   In the Manifesto there is m place for concepts of individual freedom or po1itica1dem㏄racy, and validity in an explanation about an increasing share in time of the fmits of industri・ alization for the Workers themse1ves.   Then,interpreting from出e above−mentioned historica1affairs that−the qualitative change rate of innovativeness re早。hed maximum around A・D・1850,it may be assumed that the human society bas been fo11owing up the pattem of socia1progress with F=O.5,and con一   ノ90 (36)                                            0MR0N TEcHNIcs
  12. 12. ← ← 、㌔  2 o一_ = =  1 O O 0 、 \ 、 1三十1一1半十山r{・・1・・州一rσ一・㌧午一百一■・頂〕1 Psyo11o.oO1o日1octor ^一L・O.1304 1, β・・2.044 \ (l1F1・・O.1 (1〕 12〕F=O,5 、・へ  、 (3」F=1−O 、 \ 11 ’ 、 ’ 、 、 li211 \ 一{訓\ 、 、 、 \ ’一一一 @ 一 、 、 1 、 、 、 \\ ㌧ 、 ’ 、 ●      ■ 、 、 ! ノ 、 、 、 ’’ i“P 、 、 一 ’ 、 ’ 汁刊ゴ丁竹・丁月 一二、 、’。          2        3       4        5         Yoor lj訂。k fron1 ^.D.2033,丁・1二1ogコロt Fig.7 Comparison of lαPl/1αTl&1α∫1ハαri sequently,having another maximum value for the qua1itative change rateof innovativeness aromd A.D.2032,though it might be an mrealistic assumption with much1eft for detailed Study.   The aPParent progress rate aPノ批。an be obtained from epuations(2)and(⑩as fo11ows:           aP       αβ               = 04343   (04343109f)卜1exp{一α(O,4343109彦)・}            114〕           批         玄   and simi1a】=1y the aPParent chahge rate o{innovativeness,           〃     1 6P                =  __   ×〔F+2αβ(04343109オ)r1exp{一α(04343109’)β}           励     F 励                       β一1                  −         exP{一α(O.4343109ま)β〕                   匝5〕                     0.4343109{   Epuations制and㈲are Plotted with the time f scaled back from A.D.2032in Fig.8.   It could be said that with its ever−increasi莇g rate of change,the apparent progress rate becomes maximum aromd Al D.203ユ,steeply fa11ing off afterwards partIy because of the dec1ine of innovativeness after A.D,2024for F=O.5.   But,the higher the sPeed,energy,imPulse,frequency and intensity of its innovative waves1〕ecomes with the more explosive progress rate,the greater resistance against any prediction wi11arise because of the discontinuous1y acting and mforeseen factors.Therefore, the coI1cePts of a probabiIistic distribution and a noise factor should be introduced for furthel=study on the state of a great increase in Progress rate.   v剛・l0N・・3一                  (37)二例
  13. 13. O.20 O.1.6 O.1=2 ■ O.O−8 O,04 O.OO ApP百11ent hangeratoof i11novativ∈110ss 1某11・…埠(。・舳t㍗岬引叩1’坦1…榊・舳・t〕月W呂司州旧 _βI1。一側舳1・舌≡ O.4343109t 11〕F=O.5 12〕F=1.O ^岬ront−1〕rogressrato 1・〕1票1一!…岬(㈹・・1叩trψ…一印・ノ1 (1 、 、 、 ギ 、 .13〕、・㌧一 、 ’’一.. ’ 」 2032 2028      2018      2008       1998       1988       1978    A.D,1968                           Y o甜         Fig.8 Apparent change rate of innovativeness and               apParent progress rate      Y 2032 L   +1.O Σ書 トー。 Σ… 一1.O M111d−oon OrOlll〕一㏄11 032 2025             一              一            一 @         〇≦T≦1.0 Q005 1945 ・1765− 1302 @  1974 1876   ’■ V00B.C. 12M目.C. 1000 ’ 、 ■    一 ■    一  一 \ 、一 3^orio. rOO. g割1d− 唐盾潤D 4 5 { Co1宮。W日 ケ。o, 猪レft 〕      1 @Aut0110un1ous r㏄iety @    Cyber. @    soo. 奄P1d−OOntOrOd 窒nlll〕一㏄11terOd Ol〕t. 唐盾潤D @Auto, @soo. @M訓tor @ 訓πl @mi11d 奄P1d∼1du且1 @目11d @9「oup  2 @ Mooh. 1 @ 豊OO,   S l洲。r−oo1杣山巳d P11dividu目1−oo11to d.o.  Mi11d @  目11d @ m目ttor п@gro・■〕   目11d  i11d∼idual  Primitiw @昌。o. li−1d−oontered froul]一〇舳日red For 着=搬4・一1β牛’j−1」り}・lj’ぺ 〇三丁≦10 1000M目.G. Extr直moloft Modoration  Extrom日right 6  Y直目r b≡■ok from  A,D,2033  T=Iogrot Fig.9 Dualistic evo1ution curve of society  Fina11y,the graph of the qua1itative change rate of society shown in Fig.7could be assumed to be the matter−oriented evol・ution curve of society with its maximum value at A.D.1945.   Accordingly,we can get the“Dua1istic Evo1ution Curve of Society”as shown in Fig.9, that for♀casts the gradua1shift of society from the“Matter Wor1d”to the“Mind World” corresp㎝ding to the West and the East,respectively.   Further,we suppose that the1ine of MODERATION wou1d indicate the situation of Japan that has been taking the middle−of−the−road course,and wi11be,as a“Bridge of Progress and Hamony”between the臨st and the West.   ’92 (38)                ・                         0MR0N TEcHMcs
  14. 14.                                    5. ConcIusion   The SINIC theory is an approach to the futlユre through normative and mathe㎡atical analysis of the process of innovation ranging a11 the way from technological advances to socio−economic changes and man’s motivation with such parameters as Factor of Progress Feasibility and Psychological Factor.   The pattern of socia1progress was revea1ed,according to the SINIC theory,to be an exponenticaI growth curve on the digitalized scale of socia1development from the prehistoric era to A.D.2033,that was initia11y conditioned by human use of tools and his desire for higher standards of living,and contro11ed qua1itatively by the innovativeness of society on the“time phase”of time−sca1e factor.   A㏄ording to the Marxian genera1theory,a11history is a history of c1ass strugg1e,and a11historical changes are u1timately determined by changing reIations of production due to changes in technica1conditionsl   In correspondence with this,we could rather say that all history is a histo士y of raising GNP per head,and a11historica1changes are u1timate1y determined by the imovativeness of society,which is spurred by the deve1opment of techno1ogy.   In order to make certain of even−progressing society,the pursuit of rationa1ity should be conducted so as to raise“menta1productivity”as wen as“materia1productivity”.Because the pursuit of“real”rationality means approaches from the dual sides.   Therefore,it should a1so be emphasized that the“Dua1istic EvoIution Curve of Socieキy” obtained as in Fig.9is nothing but the nature as it is,tempered with the dual sides.                                                                  (原稿受付 昭45−5−25) (注.) 本稿は、1970年4月15日京都において開催された京都国際未来学会議第3分科会で発表したものを転載した。 Vol.ユO No.3 (39)793
  • tokiwatch

    May. 27, 2021

Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" that realized the social image drawn 50 years ago. The SINIC theory is a future prediction method that OMRON founder Kazuma Tateisi developed and presented at the International Future Research Conference in 1970. Announced in the midst of Japan's rapid-paced economic growth, before PCs and the Internet even existed, this theory drew a highly accurate picture of society up to the middle of the 21st century, including the appearance of the Information Society. SINIC stands for Seed-Innovation to Need-Impetus Cyclic Evolution. According to the SINIC theory, science, technology and society share a cyclical relationship, mutually impacting and influencing each other in two distinct ways. In one direction, scientific breakthroughs yield new technologies that help society to advance. In the other direction, social needs spur on technological development and expectations for new scientific advancement. Thus, both of these factors affect each other in a cyclical manner, propelling further social evolution.

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