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Future prediction theory "SINIC theory"

Future prediction theory "SINIC theory" that realized the social image drawn 50 years ago. The SINIC theory is a future prediction method that OMRON founder Kazuma Tateisi developed and presented at the International Future Research Conference in 1970. Announced in the midst of Japan's rapid-paced economic growth, before PCs and the Internet even existed, this theory drew a highly accurate picture of society up to the middle of the 21st century, including the appearance of the Information Society. SINIC stands for Seed-Innovation to Need-Impetus Cyclic Evolution. According to the SINIC theory, science, technology and society share a cyclical relationship, mutually impacting and influencing each other in two distinct ways. In one direction, scientific breakthroughs yield new technologies that help society to advance. In the other direction, social needs spur on technological development and expectations for new scientific advancement. Thus, both of these factors affect each other in a cyclical manner, propelling further social evolution.

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uDC 001189:65,012.1/2
未来・接近へのSINIC理論
立石一真*・山本通隆紳・今   勲紳*
SINIC ThooW.A皿Appmach to the F耐11re
K.Tateisi*.M.Yamamoto*一*.I.Kon紳*
1. I皿trOduCtiOm
 工t is need1ess to say that in the progress and development of the human society,
science and techno1ogy bave made a great contribution in drasticany changing the structu1=e
and course of the soρiety,which is recognized as“Technological innovation”.
 Technological innovations have occurred discontinuous1y and thoroughly changed th−e social
stmcture being promoted by the economic factors,their accumu1ated and a㏄e1erated
inertia is ever more threatening the deepest roots and fundamental stmctures of our very
existence,the values of our human society and culture.
We wi11introduce thie SINIC theory−An approach to the future.
  SINIC is an abbreviation for Seed−Imovation & Need−Impetus Cyclic Evolution of
Technologica1innovation,being accidenta11y ana1ogous to the CYNIC theory of Greek phi−
1osophers’schoo1−the essence of virtue is se肚一。ontrol,
 The SINIC theory consists of exp1oring and forecasting what society presumably,at1east
with a high plausibility,might be bound to appear,if the autonomous forces now at work
in socia1history were going to proceed in a possible,desirable and realized way.
             2. ImterreIatiom Amo皿g Scie皿。e,Techno1ogy amd Socie11y−
  Looking back On the history of technological innovation,it is noted that technology
makes rapid progress with great spin off heteronomous1y by receiving Seed from science
and Need from the society.WhiIe,technology.in tum causes Imovation in the society and
gives necessary Impetus to science.A㏄ording1y,the evo1utive interre1ation among science,
techno1ogy and society cou1d be understood,as shown in Fig.!,to be the Seed−Innovation
&Need_Impetus Cyclic Evolution of Techno1ogical innovation_that is,the SINIC theory.
                   3.Ten neve1opme皿tal S曲ges of舳e Soφe蚊
  Fig.2shows a long−range trend of GNP per head from the Prehistric era up to A.D.
2033.
  GNP per head for the most advanced society at each era wou1d be assumed to be the
standard of dividing the deve1opment of the human society into ten different stages,to−
gether with considerations of epochmaking historica1events and normative predictions of
the future society.
 ヰ立石電機株式会社 社長
舳立・石電機株式会社 専務取締役 中央研究所所長
‡榊立石電機株式会社中央研究所 研究企画室
 ヰPre雪ident,OMRON Tatei昌i Electroηic昌Co.
榊Director,OMRON R&D L目boratorie昌,OMRON Tateisi E1ectro口ics Co.
榊MP Re昌earch Department,OMRON R&D L且bor目tories,0MRON Tateisi Electroηic宮Co.
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Fig.1 SINIC diagram
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Fig.2 Long_range trend o‡GNP per head
Vol.ユO No.3 (27) ∫87
(1)Primitive society(1000M B,C.一12M B1C.),GNP per耳ead:1ess than$50  Man
   came to exist on the earth.He started to ask questions,exp1ore his enjoyment possi・
   bilities and wanted to determine his own fate,while keeping the highest place of
   dignity and motivation power in harmonious balance and fixed order.He surrendered
   to any experience as ultimate proof of truth with everything inc1uding himse1f,
     Man’s greatest scientific discovery−the use of fire and his greatest invention−1an・
   guage go far back in this prehistoric time,Furthermore,bows and arrows,manufacture
   of earthenware and so on were invented.
(2)Co11ective society(12M B.C.一700B.C.),GNP per head:$50一$100 The transition
   of food gathering to food growing is the main feature of this society.That is,raising
   of domestic anima1s,cu1tivation of1and,and construction of stone buildings were
   introduced.The social form developed from the famiIy community into a c1an.This
   change is ca11ed “Socia1ization” and the four greatest civilization rose. Exact
   observation and record of nature started the primary sciences in such fie1ds as astron−
   omy,mathem早tics,meta11urgy and anatomy were developed.
(3) Agricu1ture society(700B.C.一1302),GNP per head l$100一$170  This Period saw
   widely spread agricu1ture,a rise of new commercial and industrial classes with the
   appearance of monetary economy.The Athenian Civilization was at the zenith of
   prosperity,when ancient science was developed amazingly since the beginning by
   Tha1es in the seventh century B.C.
     In addition to the Roman Civi1ization,the frequent1y undertaken crusades between
   the years of Mediaeva1Age1096and1291intensified the development with such
   general effects asξreater awareness of the wor1d about,the greater demand for
   improved traditional technics and the increased circu1ation of coinage.
ω Handicraft society(1302−765),GNP per head:$170一$300 This period marks a
   transition from Agricu1tura1society to Industrialization society.The inventions of a
   mariner’s compass,gun powder and printing paved the way for a deve1opment of
   handicraft.The Renaissance Period witnessed the deve1opment of various branches
   of fundamenta1science necessary to provide techno1ogy for the next Industria1ization
   SOCiety.
     Leonard Da Vinch took the role of pioneer of Modern science&Technology.And
   later on,Modem science was estab1ished by Gali1ei,Newton and others.
     In the meantime,after the discoveries of the New Wor1d and the Indian route,
   England enjoyed the maritime suPeriority a11over the wor1d with the first modem
   joint stock companies.Within the comtry,the civil revo1utions such as the Puritan
   Revolution and the Glorians Revo1ution removed the restriction on Production there
   before exercised by guiIds and estab1ished the freedom of the industriaI bourgeois
   thereby opening the main road for capitalism.
(5〕Industrialization society(1765−1876),GNP per head: $300一$700  .The Industria1
   Revolut1on(1760t01830)mvo1ved the subst1tut1on of machmery for hand too1s,the
   introduction of the factory system and the rise of mass production.
     As more and more manufacturers began to tum to steam power to run their
   machines,the Industria1Revo1ution gained momentum,and mass production became
   more preva1ent,which accelerated the growth of the moderp.capita1istic society. In
   1825,the fifst cyc1ic depression occurred,that is a sign of high1y deve1oped capitalistic
   society.In1857,the first financia1panic on a world−wide sca1e started.
     The18th and19th centurie3saw three major revolutions,i.e,the Industria1Revo1u−
    tion in England,the po1itica1revo1ution in France and the phi1osophica.1revo1ution in
   Germany.
(6)Mechanization society(1876−1945),GNP per head:$700一$2500  ・Advances in
   scientific know1edge have1ed to advances in technology.And from1870toユ920took
   p1ace the2nd Industria1Revo1ution especia11y in electric power,automobi1e,machinery
’8.2 (28)              .       .                  0MR0N TEcHN1cs
   and chemical industry,and in addition to the existing traditiona11ight industries,
   expansion and strengthening of heavy chemica1industries were seen.The rise of
   these new indus−tries resulted in the creation of mi11ions of new jobs.At the same
   time in Germany,a renovation of the patent system and a systematization of educa・
   tion were carried out as one program for promotion of science and techno1ogy,
   which reflected the mounting competition among capitalistic comtries.Futhermore,
   the research activities by giant monopo1istic enterprises gradua11y became organized・
     In the United States,the Nationa1Research Counci1was established after the end
   of World War I as a pemanent organ to solve various technologica1prob1ems afising
   as a resu1t of the war.Under the counci1,1arge−sca1e research organizations such as
   ρo11eges,state or private research ins」titutes were estab1ished.
     To cope with such new development of various kinds of industria1equipment,a
   new big stride in the pro墓ress of technology was essential;more precise production
   techniques and mass production of machine tools.
     It was for such mass production purposes that a scientific method of production
   control was developed by Tai1or,Meanwhile,the way for automation was being
   paved by the systematization of machine techniques and deve−opment of automatic
   machines.
     In the20th century,Einstein established・his mass_energy equation,which in later
   days resu1ted in technology,whereby a huきe amount of energy condensed in the form
   of mass can be released.
(7)Automation society (1945−1974),GNP per head:$2500一$5000    Remarkab1e
   techno1ogical innovations took p1ace from1940t01960,the features of which may be
   summarized as follows:
  (a)Growth of concentrated science type of industries(such as chemic耳1,electropics,
     aerona食tics and nuclear Power industries)
  (b)Wide−spread use of synthetic materials
 く。)Introduction of NC(numerica1control)machine tools and e1ectronic contro1tech−
     no1ogy with comPuter
 (d)Deve1opment of systematic method(system engineering)
 (e)Promotion of big R&D Projects by the government
     Automation which had stemmed from mechanization became widely used in indus−
   tries as mechanica1automation,business automation and process automation by
   means of computers having feed−back contro1function.
     Economy became more and more intemationa1and the activities of world enterprises
   became further intensified.And in business,the stress shifted from the conventional
   stab1e market to the continuous deve1op卿ent of new products.ConsequentIy,the
   concept of a business fie1d also shifted to the widest definition−a system aiming at a
   function,as D Schon says,which is more particular1y described as fo11ows:
 (a)Gigantic products of which number of component parts exceeds the order of105
     (such aS1arge−size comPuters,jet P1anes,rockets,etc.)
 (b〕System industries having compIicated sub−systems(such as educational system,
     data processing system,ocean exPloitation system,city develoPment system)
(8) Cybernation society (1974_2005),GNP per head:$5000_$ユ5000    In the socia1
   backgromd described−be1ow,the human beings in this society wi11be freed from
   such disregard of humanity as were necessari1y fomd in Mechanization and Automa−
   tion societies and will establish their subjectivity and responsibi1ity.
     This wiIl be a creative period where we can find a1ife worth1iving,as follows:
 (a) The importance of informational function wi11 be greatly increased resu1ting in the
     enhancement of selective functio口.
 (b) ApProach to and Practical aPP1ication of−quantification of eva1uation standards
     unde士ever changing va1ue system.
帆1・M・                」 (29)1占3
   (c)0ptimization know1edge as a result of combination of1ogic and sen.timent.
   (d) POpularization of higher education.
   (e)Diversification of individua1consumption.
   (f)Advancement of service economy.
   (9)Diversification of the activities of big businesses prompted by the socia1requirements.
   ω Practical−application of such intellectua1techno1ogy as we11 enab1e “contro1ed
      experiments”and“plans high1y likely to be a success”in the socia1,economic,
      industrial,manageria1and other fields.
   (i)Generalization of new soft techno1ogical syst♀ms,such as coding and systematization
      beyond the level of conventiona1individual technology.
   (j)Introduction o・f automation plants reIieving man from simp1e1abor,
   Gd Generalization of man−machine system for岬.ech&nization in the so1ution of typica1
      Problems.
   (1)Wide app1ication and development of cybemetics in comection with1ife science,
      that may be tentative1y ca11ed biocybemetics,i.e,bionetics.
(9)Optimization society(2005−2025),GNP per head:$15000_$40000  In this society,
     individual and socia1desires of men and women wi11change,and a function of finding.
     out the best route to satisfy such desires win be deve1oped−
      Thus,increased se1ective function for the optimal information will enab1e man to
     find the most suitable and p1easant job,according to his own individual ability.
      And this wi111ead to the optimization of the who1e society1Subsequent1y,a method
     will be invented and put into practical use wherein an men and women(including
     those whose knowledge leve11s so low as to be well rep1aced by machmes)can be
     given a job which wi11 make them feel worthy mder the socia1circumstances of
     ζeviving tl■e arts and crafts and of making personal services more respectable.
      The individua1and the society are in what may be ca11ed a dualisdca11y monistic
     relation.In terms of systematics,tota1system and the sub−system are we11 balanced
     in their respective directions toward optimization.We should Iike to call this an
     optima1combination of optimization.In this society,the nature of knowledge itse1f
     which has passed through the preCeding Cybemation society wi11mdergo a major
     change and know1edge wi11come to occupy the most important position for everybody.
      Thus,the development of techniques for optimization of the entire socia1system
     wi11make the who1e society more normative and with the he1p of high1y advanced
     science a台d techno1ogy wi11enabIe a contro1of natura1’human environments,and
     human nature itself.
      Particu1arly,menta1phenomena wou1d be treated with in the fie1d of tentatively
     called psycho−bionetics,i.e,Psychonetics.
伽.。Autonomous society(2025_2033),GNP per head:more than$40000  This society
     represents a transition form the.societies of conscious control beginning with the
     C・u・・ti・・P・・i・dt・th・N・t…1…i・ty・f…一・g・t・・L
      The human beings who1ive in this society!are required to have undergone a rea1
    change,since oth6rwise there is a fear that they may be enervated in such an order1y
     wor1d where there is no real struggle for existenc・e,because through the1ong history
    of mankind they have been much indebted for their progress to their resistant power
     evinced・in the face of three struggles mentioned by B,Russe1;the strugg1e with
    nature圭the strugg1e with other humans and the struggle with nature,the stmggIe
     with other humans and the strugg1e with themselves.
      一What may serve as motivation stimlus and reward in a pemanently aff1uent
     1eiSure・SOCiety P
      Thanks to the high1y advanced supe卜psycho1ogy and re1ated fie1ds,that may
    tentatively・be・℃a11ed.Metapsychonetics,each member of the society wi11be enab1ed
    to act autonomously without being troub1ed by actua1ized contro1s from the society or
 ’84 (80)                                          oMR0N TEcHNIcs
     by himself,The latter case could be dimly seen in the grown−up being ab1e to operate
    with the maximum use of his power potential,part1y because he has realized its
    rough1imitations.The value resides only in the creation of something new and the
    members of the society will be able to1ive beyond their natural span of life.
      The c1arification of the super−psychologica1phenomena wi11tremendous1y increase
    the human capabi1ities and as a still higher society,a natura1society wi11be sought
    after as the Utopia for mankind.By that time any temporary confusion caused by
    super−techno1ogical imovations to cope with such supe卜psychologica1phenomena may
    have been overcome.The technique of face−to・face communication between individuals
    wi11reach the highest stage of development where they can even communicate with
    each in some telepathica1mamer.
      Due to such human revo1utions,the human society,emerging out of the miserable
    and atrocious dark eras where ignorance and greed dominated wi11be entirely trans−
    formed into a society where the wisdom and goodwi11of man prevail and peace and
    human life are of supreme importance.Thus,what we can Autonomous society has
    been realized.
(11)Natura1society(the future after2033) The human society wi11develop from the
    vi11age community in Optimization Period to the clan in Autommous Period and
    further to the family community in this Natura1society.It is noted that the form
    of the human society cyc1ica11y comes back to that of−the primitive society,though
    these two forms of society are on different p1anes.
Ago          Sooioty T001111010酬          SUiolr00
1000M目C
12M日.C.
フOO目.C.
A.D.1302
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