Route Choice Variability:A reactive or proactive decision?David J SimpsonPhD Research Student
Variability Happens
• Habitual travel behaviour is characterised not  solely by repetition but also by variability (Hanson  & Huff 1990)Variab...
• Habitual travel behaviour is characterised not  solely by repetition but also by variability (Hanson  & Huff 1990)• Some...
Travel Variation
• Habitual travel have many variable characteristics  – mode  – journey-chain  – reference to chosen path (route)Travel Va...
• Habitual travel have many variable characteristics   – mode   – journey-chain   – reference to chosen path (route)• Hist...
Categorising Travel Variation
• Huff & Hanson (1986) have shown that variation  existsCategorising Travel Variation
• Huff & Hanson (1986) have shown that variation  exists• Hanson & Huff (1990) later proposed to  differentiate among thre...
Travel Survey Methodology
• Travel surveys have a long history in academic  research  – Travel diaries are dominant despite some issues     •   Non ...
• Travel surveys have a long history in academic  research  – Travel diaries are dominant despite many problems     •   No...
Ipsos MORI
• Ipsos MORI are the second largest media research  firm in the UK  – Working on a project measuring twenty thousand    pa...
Is a ten day methodology period enough?
• No literature to indicate the frequency variations  are undertakenIs a ten day methodology period enough?
• No literature to indicate the frequency variations  are undertaken• Typical placement of Ipsos MORI’s devices capture  s...
• No literature to indicate the frequency variations  are undertaken• Typical placement of Ipsos MORI’s devices capture  s...
• Nineteen participants over four focus groups• Three locations  – London (2)  – Manchester  – Liverpool• Snowballing recr...
• Nineteen participants over four focus groups• Three locations   – London (2)   – Manchester   – Liverpool• Snowballing r...
• Work was the most common type• Exercise the second most common type  – All trips were spatially/temporally similarResult...
“It varies in the week but its three times a week.”Participant M (male, non-driver, 18-24, Manchester)Results: Systematic ...
“Yep, play football down in Oval. So usually travel bythe tube from, er, from Farringdon” “roughly the same     time give ...
• Events included  – Moving house  – Change in work location/status  – Changes in routes availableResults Structural Varia...
•   Weather•   Delays on Public Transport (non drivers)•   Traffic (drivers)•   Reducing the physical effort (laziness)Res...
“I actually take different routes - to mix it up a bit. … I    normally go Canada Water to Green Park then  Victoria Line ...
• Hanson & Huff (1990)  – Systematic  – Ephemeral  – StructuralCategorising Travel Variation
Categorising Travel Variation
• Participants were often not specific in their  systematic and ephemeral variations   – “a couple of times per year”   – ...
• All focus group participants gave evidence of  habitual travel variability  – evidence route variability is taking place...
•   Hanson, S. & Huff, J. (1990) Measurement of habitual behaviour: Examining    systematic variability in reptitive trave...
Slides and contact details are found athttp://about.me/simpsdjd.simpson@ucl.ac.ukThank you for your timeThank You
Slides and contact details are found athttp://about.me/simpsdjd.simpson@ucl.ac.ukThank you for your timeAny questions?Than...
20110106 utsg route choice variability; proactive or reactive
20110106 utsg route choice variability; proactive or reactive
20110106 utsg route choice variability; proactive or reactive
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20110106 utsg route choice variability; proactive or reactive

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Presentation given to University Transport Study Group on 6th January 2011. For more information, you can contact me via about.me/simpsdj

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20110106 utsg route choice variability; proactive or reactive

  1. 1. Route Choice Variability:A reactive or proactive decision?David J SimpsonPhD Research Student
  2. 2. Variability Happens
  3. 3. • Habitual travel behaviour is characterised not solely by repetition but also by variability (Hanson & Huff 1990)Variability Happens
  4. 4. • Habitual travel behaviour is characterised not solely by repetition but also by variability (Hanson & Huff 1990)• Some definitions of habit – “recurring manner of response to a given situation” (Reading 1977) – “regularly repeated action on the part of an indivudal that is learnt and is observable to others” (Newcomb 1964) – Involves “accommodation, adaptation and adjustment” (Popplestone & McPherson 1988)Variability Happens
  5. 5. Travel Variation
  6. 6. • Habitual travel have many variable characteristics – mode – journey-chain – reference to chosen path (route)Travel Variation
  7. 7. • Habitual travel have many variable characteristics – mode – journey-chain – reference to chosen path (route)• Historically less work has been undertaken surrounding spatial variations of habitual travel – Recent renewed interest now the data is available although it is largely road based.Travel Variation
  8. 8. Categorising Travel Variation
  9. 9. • Huff & Hanson (1986) have shown that variation existsCategorising Travel Variation
  10. 10. • Huff & Hanson (1986) have shown that variation exists• Hanson & Huff (1990) later proposed to differentiate among three very different sources of variation, later expanded by Kitamura et al (2006) – Systematic – Ephemeral – StructuralCategorising Travel Variation
  11. 11. Travel Survey Methodology
  12. 12. • Travel surveys have a long history in academic research – Travel diaries are dominant despite some issues • Non response • Drop-off • Trip ommission • Human errorTravel Survey Methodology
  13. 13. • Travel surveys have a long history in academic research – Travel diaries are dominant despite many problems • Non response • Drop-off • Trip ommission • Human error• GPS Methodology offers new opportunities – Methodology becoming increasingly important despite it’s own problems • Cold Starts • Urban CanyonTravel Survey Methodology
  14. 14. Ipsos MORI
  15. 15. • Ipsos MORI are the second largest media research firm in the UK – Working on a project measuring twenty thousand participants for ten days over three years. – Offered this data to UCLIpsos MORI
  16. 16. Is a ten day methodology period enough?
  17. 17. • No literature to indicate the frequency variations are undertakenIs a ten day methodology period enough?
  18. 18. • No literature to indicate the frequency variations are undertaken• Typical placement of Ipsos MORI’s devices capture six weekdays and four weekend days – Unknown whether this is sufficient to analyse travel variabilityIs a ten day methodology period enough?
  19. 19. • No literature to indicate the frequency variations are undertaken• Typical placement of Ipsos MORI’s devices capture six weekdays and four weekend days – Unknown whether this is sufficient to analyse travel variability• Focus Group methodology used to gain qualitative information as to the nature of individual travel behaviour – including frequencies of travel repetition and variabilityIs a ten day methodology period enough?
  20. 20. • Nineteen participants over four focus groups• Three locations – London (2) – Manchester – Liverpool• Snowballing recruitment method usedFocus Groups
  21. 21. • Nineteen participants over four focus groups• Three locations – London (2) – Manchester – Liverpool• Snowballing recruitment method used• All types of variation were alluded to in the focus groupsFocus Groups
  22. 22. • Work was the most common type• Exercise the second most common type – All trips were spatially/temporally similarResults: Systematic Variation
  23. 23. “It varies in the week but its three times a week.”Participant M (male, non-driver, 18-24, Manchester)Results: Systematic Variation
  24. 24. “Yep, play football down in Oval. So usually travel bythe tube from, er, from Farringdon” “roughly the same time give or take an hour, every Monday and Wednesday.” Participant K (male, non-driver, 18-24, London).Results: Systematic Variation
  25. 25. • Events included – Moving house – Change in work location/status – Changes in routes availableResults Structural Variation
  26. 26. • Weather• Delays on Public Transport (non drivers)• Traffic (drivers)• Reducing the physical effort (laziness)Results Ephemeral Variation
  27. 27. “I actually take different routes - to mix it up a bit. … I normally go Canada Water to Green Park then Victoria Line up to Euston or Warren Street, or I go Canada Water to London Bridge and take the Northern Line to Euston, and sometimes if I am feeling really lazy I take the Jubilee Line from Canada Water to Baker Street and take theHammersmith or Metropolitan Line to Euston Squarejust because it is a bit closer to my office - which isn’t a very good reason because it actually takes melonger. But it is interesting to mix it up.” Participant B (male, driver, 18-24, London).Results: Ephemeral Variation
  28. 28. • Hanson & Huff (1990) – Systematic – Ephemeral – StructuralCategorising Travel Variation
  29. 29. Categorising Travel Variation
  30. 30. • Participants were often not specific in their systematic and ephemeral variations – “a couple of times per year” – “a couple of times per month” – “a couple of times per week” • All common phrases used in the focus groups• Exercise is an especially good example• “Sporadic” mentioned by three participantsFrequency of Variations
  31. 31. • All focus group participants gave evidence of habitual travel variability – evidence route variability is taking place• Complex nature of variations required an expansion of Hanson & Huff’s (1990) work for successful and meaningful categorisation• Estimates of frequency from the participants are often the best available.• Ipsos MORI’s ten day methodology is too short to fully comprehend habitual travel variabilityConclusions
  32. 32. • Hanson, S. & Huff, J. (1990) Measurement of habitual behaviour: Examining systematic variability in reptitive travel IN Jones, P. (ed) Developments in Dynamic and Activity-Based Approaches to Travel Analysis; Gower: Aldershot, UK. (pgs 229-249).• Huff, J. & Hanson, S. (1986) Repetition and variability in urban travel, Geographical Analysis 18, 97-114.• Kitamura, R., Yamamoto, T., Susilo, Y.O. & Axhausen, K.W. (2006) How routine is a routine? An analysis of the day-to-day variability in prism vertex location, Transportation Research A 40, 259-279.• Newcomb, T.M. (1964) Habit IN Gould, J. & Kolb, W. (eds) A Dictionary of the Social Sciences, Tavistock: Norwich, UK.• Popplestone, J.A. & McPherson, M.W. (1988) Dictionary of Concepts in General Psychology, Greenwood Press: Westport CT, USA.• Reading, H.F. (1977) A Dictionary of the Social Sciences, Routledge & Kegan Paul: Guildford, UK.References
  33. 33. Slides and contact details are found athttp://about.me/simpsdjd.simpson@ucl.ac.ukThank you for your timeThank You
  34. 34. Slides and contact details are found athttp://about.me/simpsdjd.simpson@ucl.ac.ukThank you for your timeAny questions?Thank You

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