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Actuaciones específicas de gestión
        para la adaptación


                  Craig D. Allen

         USGS Jemez Moun...
Further rapid warming projected
Efectos ecologicos del
       cambio climático –
                                             Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005
...
Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra Nevada 2006

                                                                           Quercu...
Climate Summits…
                                                   Yeah, right !
and this is the 14th already..    And yo...
No action in the face of
       climate change
is a decision that may carry
      the greatest risk.
But, what actions
should we take?


Do we have
science-based,
practical options
for directly
managing
ecosystems
in flux,
...
A scientific basis for developing
                                   adaptation options
                                  ...
Adapting to Climate Change in US
             National Forests

Geoffrey M. Blate*, Linda Joyce, Susan Julius, Jeremy Litt...
Synthesis for USFS - Overall Findings

     Adaptation options for managing for resilience


General Approaches           ...
Confronting Climate Change Will Require
         Coordination & Collaboration



Multiple
jurisdictions
across large
lands...
Managing in the Face of Change

     A Toolbox of Options


     Adaptation Strategies:

          Practice Resistance

  ...
Management - Research Dialogue
               Assessments – Tools - Practices

No Advance Planning                        ...
Management - Research Dialogue
               Assessments – Tools - Practices

No Advance Planning                        ...
Adapting to Climate Change
through Science-Management
Partnerships

Dave Peterson
US Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Rese...
General adaptation strategies

Implement adaptive management
Incorporate uncertainty in science and
management
View ecolog...
General adaptation strategies

Implement adaptive management
Incorporate uncertainty in science and
management
View ecolog...
Adaptation strategy #1
Increase landscape diversity

Increase resilience at large scales
--Treatments and spatial configur...
Adaptation strategy #2
Maintain biological diversity

Modify genetic guidelines

Experiment with mixed
species, mixed geno...
Adaptation strategy #3

Plan for post-disturbance
management:


Treat fire and other ecological
disturbance as normal, per...
Adaptation strategy #4
Reduce non-climatic
sources of stress

Implement early detection/rapid
response to control exotic s...
Adaptation strategy #5

Manage for realistic outcomes


Identify key thresholds for species                Critical
      ...
Adaptation strategy #6
Incorporate climate change
in restoration

Reduce emphasis on historical
references

Reduce use of ...
Advice from “The Great One”

quot;I skate to where the
puck is going to be, not to
where it has been.quot;

─ Wayne Gretzky
quot;I run to where the ball is
going to be, not to where
it has been.quot;

─ Fernando Torres
Adaptation strategy #7
Anticipate big surprises

Expect mega-droughts, larger
fires, system collapses,
species extirpation...
Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.




           Climate
                             Time
           Eco...
However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt
ecosystem change.




            Climate
                             ...
However, gradual climatic change may trigger
abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response).




            Climate
       ...
Lessons Learned – Keys for Success

                                    • Start with this premise:
                       ...
Lessons Learned – Keys for Success

                                    • Start with this premise:
                       ...
Another example, involving multiple land managers:

         Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem




                           ...
Select Target +
          Define Management Objective
Yellowstone River flows
(ecological process)




                   ...
forest                             agricultural      CONCEPTUAL
           management                            practices...
forest                            agricultural      INITIAL CLIMATE
           management                            pract...
forest                            agricultural        INITIAL CLIMATE
               management                           ...
INTERVENTION
              forest                            agricultural
                                                ...
Intervention Points                     Potential Actions               Desired Responses

                      Purchase ...
Interagency collaboration
                                   Olympic National Forest and Olympic
                         ...
WESTERN
                  MOUNTAIN
                   INITIATIVE



Understand and predict responses of
Western mountain e...
Mi paisaje,
Sierra Jemez,
en Nuevo Mexico.


Trabajo en un
parque nacional,
Bandelier National
Monument.
Fuego




                                           Mortalidad




Erosion



                  Efectos ecologicos del
  ...
Pinus edulis muriendo (roja)   Sierra Jemez, October 2002
Despues 18 meses…   Sierra Jemez, May 2004
Jemez Mts. salamanders
(endemic)
don’t know about our
land boundaries….




Plethodon neomexicanum
Elk radiotelemetry locations in 2000, 2002 – they don’t care about land boundaries either
1954 American Springs Fire
1977 La Mesa Fire
1996 Dome Fire
1998 Oso Complex Fire
1910-1996 other fires
2000 Cerro Grande ...
Cerro Grande Fire, May 2000




          Interaction: Post-Fire Erosion.
Reduced surface cover, increasing bare soil connectivity can lead to:

         Threshold response - increased erosion



...
Uncertainty: Disturbance Interactions


•   Interactions among dieback, insects, fire, and erosion can amplify the
    ind...
EROSION
                           FOREST
                    FIRE
DROUGHT
Despite uncertainties,
together we can take
management actions to
better resist and adjust
to climate stresses…
E.g., forest fuel
structures also
drive higher
severity fire in
some forest
types
So, we can reduce
forest densities with
combinations of
mechanical thinning
and prescribed fire.
There is good evidence that some types of forest treatments in forests
can mitigate climate-related wildfire events.
So, the need, and opportunity, exists here for collaborative, landscape-scale management….
Mechanical treatments are now being
applied at broad scales.


These can also have other ecosystem
benefits, e.g., coarse ...
E.g.,

  Bandelier’s ongoing
piñon-juniper woodland
  restoration project…
Antes -
Despues…
Restored woodland at Bandelier, now more resilient to drought and fire.
Active crown fires
                burn explosively,
               primarily in canopy
               needles and twigs,
...
high
FIRE HAZARD              Canopy Fire




                         Surface Fire




                                  ...
Partial forest die-back
= natural thinning


- might be beneficial for
    some forests…


- increased resilience to
     ...
Fuego, Sierra Nevada,
  septiembre 2005




                        Cooperative Post-Fire Research Project,
              ...
Post-fire experimental treatments:

- salvage cut + chip          ESL

- partial cut, leave branches PCL

- control, non-i...
Post-fire
experimental
treatments:
Post-fire
experimental
treatments:
Initial results:

Better tree regeneration (P. pinaster), higher
biodiversity (e.g., plants, birds), in partial cutting
wi...
Lots of useful climate change adaptation resources online, for example:



                      Natural Resources Canada:...
Nosotros necesitamos arreglarlo…
Think Globally,

   Act Locally --

        Together…
        Together



There’s no place like home…


While everyone is ...
Gracias !
We can and must learn together through science and adaptive resource management – MNDDB’s !!!
White dots indicate documented localities with increased forest mortality related to climatic stress
from drought and high...
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
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8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09

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8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09

  1. 1. Actuaciones específicas de gestión para la adaptación Craig D. Allen USGS Jemez Mountains Field Station Bandelier National Monument Los Alamos, New Mexico Western Mountain Initiative
  2. 2. Further rapid warming projected
  3. 3. Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005 Andalucia Fuego Presa baja, sur de Portugal, octubre 2005 Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005 Sequia Erosion
  4. 4. Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra Nevada 2006 Quercus ilex, en Sierra Nevada 2006 Mortalidad de arboles Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Andalucia Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra de Filabres – foto: Rafael Navarro
  5. 5. Climate Summits… Yeah, right ! and this is the 14th already.. And you worse ! You even more ! Get out of here !
  6. 6. No action in the face of climate change is a decision that may carry the greatest risk.
  7. 7. But, what actions should we take? Do we have science-based, practical options for directly managing ecosystems in flux, to adapt to climate change? Vamos, vamos - uno, u otro…
  8. 8. A scientific basis for developing adaptation options US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4) Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources National Forests National Parks National Wildlife Refuges Wild and Scenic Rivers National Estuaries Marine Protected Areas Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
  9. 9. Adapting to Climate Change in US National Forests Geoffrey M. Blate*, Linda Joyce, Susan Julius, Jeremy Littell, Steve McNulty, Connie Millar, Susi Moser, Ron Nielson, Kathy O’Hallaran, Dave Peterson, and Jordan West August 2008
  10. 10. Synthesis for USFS - Overall Findings Adaptation options for managing for resilience General Approaches Examples Protect key ecosystem features Facilitate dispersal Reduce anthropogenic stressors Prevent invasives; reduce pollution Representation Increase genetic / habitat diversity Replication Protect replicate populations Restoration Use natives post-disturbance Refugia ID / protect refugia for at-risk species Relocation Assist species migrations
  11. 11. Confronting Climate Change Will Require Coordination & Collaboration Multiple jurisdictions across large landscapes
  12. 12. Managing in the Face of Change A Toolbox of Options Adaptation Strategies: Practice Resistance Increase Resilience Allow Forests to Respond Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems
  13. 13. Management - Research Dialogue Assessments – Tools - Practices No Advance Planning Be Proactive: for climate change Plan in Advance React after Disturbance or Extreme Events
  14. 14. Management - Research Dialogue Assessments – Tools - Practices No Advance Planning Be Proactive: for climate change Plan in Advance React after Disturbance or Extreme Events
  15. 15. Adapting to Climate Change through Science-Management Partnerships Dave Peterson US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
  16. 16. General adaptation strategies Implement adaptive management Incorporate uncertainty in science and management View ecological disturbance as an opportunity Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations
  17. 17. General adaptation strategies Implement adaptive management Incorporate uncertainty in science and management View ecological disturbance as an opportunity Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations
  18. 18. Adaptation strategy #1 Increase landscape diversity Increase resilience at large scales --Treatments and spatial configurations that minimize loss of large number of structural and functional groups Increase size of management units -- Much larger treatments and age/structural classes Increase connectivity
  19. 19. Adaptation strategy #2 Maintain biological diversity Modify genetic guidelines Experiment with mixed species, mixed genotypes Assist colonization, establish neo-native species Identify species, populations, and communities that are sensitive to increased disturbance
  20. 20. Adaptation strategy #3 Plan for post-disturbance management: Treat fire and other ecological disturbance as normal, periodic occurrences Incorporate fire management and other disturbance options in land management policies and plans
  21. 21. Adaptation strategy #4 Reduce non-climatic sources of stress Implement early detection/rapid response to control exotic species Reduce sources of air pollution, toxins, erosion, etc. to the extent possible
  22. 22. Adaptation strategy #5 Manage for realistic outcomes Identify key thresholds for species Critical Threshold Temperature Increase and processes. Climate Climatic Variability Determine which thresholds will be Time exceeded (e.g., salmon & cold water). Prioritize projects with high probability of success; abandon hopeless causes (triage).
  23. 23. Adaptation strategy #6 Incorporate climate change in restoration Reduce emphasis on historical references Reduce use of guidelines based on static relationships (e.g., plant associations)
  24. 24. Advice from “The Great One” quot;I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.quot; ─ Wayne Gretzky
  25. 25. quot;I run to where the ball is going to be, not to where it has been.quot; ─ Fernando Torres
  26. 26. Adaptation strategy #7 Anticipate big surprises Expect mega-droughts, larger fires, system collapses, species extirpations, etc. Incorporate these phenomena in planning
  27. 27. Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
  28. 28. However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt ecosystem change. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
  29. 29. However, gradual climatic change may trigger abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response). Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
  30. 30. Lessons Learned – Keys for Success • Start with this premise: Managers produce the adaptation options • Establish a strong science-management collaboration • Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies • Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers • Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
  31. 31. Lessons Learned – Keys for Success • Start with this premise: Managers produce the adaptation options • Establish a strong science-management collaboration • Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies • Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers • Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
  32. 32. Another example, involving multiple land managers: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Cross et al, in review
  33. 33. Select Target + Define Management Objective Yellowstone River flows (ecological process) To maintain Yellowstone cutthroat trout
  34. 34. forest agricultural CONCEPTUAL management practices MODEL wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows temperature + quantity, quality, timing surfaces precipitation riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
  35. 35. forest agricultural INITIAL CLIMATE management practices SCENARIO wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows warmer, drier, quantity, quality, timing surfaces earlier spring riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
  36. 36. forest agricultural INITIAL CLIMATE management practices SCENARIO wildfire withdrawals ∆ flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban + ? growth ∆ Lower baseflows Warmer water temps impervious warmer, drier, - Earlier spring peak surfaces earlier spring Lower water O2 - - -? ? riparian beaver snowpack cover -? groundwater grazing practices -
  37. 37. INTERVENTION forest agricultural practices POINTS management wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows temperature + quantity, quality, timing surfaces precipitation riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
  38. 38. Intervention Points Potential Actions Desired Responses Purchase water rights Reduce Withdrawals withdrawals Water conservation Snowpack Increase local High flows Build snow fences management snowpack High elevation Install check dams Increase rain Peaked streamflow retention hydrograph Beaver Reintroduce beaver populations Maintain Reduce / remove roads water quality Impervious surfaces Decrease Reduce livestock sedimentation Maintain density Grazing appropriate practices water T Fence riparian areas Increase Riparian riparian shading vegetation Restore riparian vegetation
  39. 39. Interagency collaboration Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park are developing a climate- change vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for the Olympic Peninsula • Water • Vegetation • Fisheries • Wildlife • Roads and infrastructure Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
  40. 40. WESTERN MOUNTAIN INITIATIVE Understand and predict responses of Western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change – Collaborative research among: USGS, USFS, NPS, USA universities, + international Univ Alicante Sierra Nevada, UGR
  41. 41. Mi paisaje, Sierra Jemez, en Nuevo Mexico. Trabajo en un parque nacional, Bandelier National Monument.
  42. 42. Fuego Mortalidad Erosion Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Nuevo Mexico
  43. 43. Pinus edulis muriendo (roja) Sierra Jemez, October 2002
  44. 44. Despues 18 meses… Sierra Jemez, May 2004
  45. 45. Jemez Mts. salamanders (endemic) don’t know about our land boundaries…. Plethodon neomexicanum
  46. 46. Elk radiotelemetry locations in 2000, 2002 – they don’t care about land boundaries either
  47. 47. 1954 American Springs Fire 1977 La Mesa Fire 1996 Dome Fire 1998 Oso Complex Fire 1910-1996 other fires 2000 Cerro Grande Fire
  48. 48. Cerro Grande Fire, May 2000 Interaction: Post-Fire Erosion.
  49. 49. Reduced surface cover, increasing bare soil connectivity can lead to: Threshold response - increased erosion Soil Erosion Behavior Decreasing Erosion Decreasing Cover
  50. 50. Uncertainty: Disturbance Interactions • Interactions among dieback, insects, fire, and erosion can amplify the individual disturbance processes. • Predicted climate changes could further accelerate these disturbance processes.
  51. 51. EROSION FOREST FIRE DROUGHT
  52. 52. Despite uncertainties, together we can take management actions to better resist and adjust to climate stresses…
  53. 53. E.g., forest fuel structures also drive higher severity fire in some forest types
  54. 54. So, we can reduce forest densities with combinations of mechanical thinning and prescribed fire.
  55. 55. There is good evidence that some types of forest treatments in forests can mitigate climate-related wildfire events.
  56. 56. So, the need, and opportunity, exists here for collaborative, landscape-scale management….
  57. 57. Mechanical treatments are now being applied at broad scales. These can also have other ecosystem benefits, e.g., coarse mulching with woody debris increases surface cover and infiltration capacity, leading to increased herbaceous growth.
  58. 58. E.g., Bandelier’s ongoing piñon-juniper woodland restoration project…
  59. 59. Antes -
  60. 60. Despues…
  61. 61. Restored woodland at Bandelier, now more resilient to drought and fire.
  62. 62. Active crown fires burn explosively, primarily in canopy needles and twigs, <1 cm diameter, leaving scorched trunks and branches unconsumed. So, crown fire risks probably decrease once dead needles drop. Post-crown Post-dieback fire
  63. 63. high FIRE HAZARD Canopy Fire Surface Fire Dead trees start to fall, Herb and shrub and Live Dieback, Dead needles off trees, tree regrowth, Coarse woody low stressed dead needles Surface fine fuels , forest on dead trees More exposed site surface fuels TIME
  64. 64. Partial forest die-back = natural thinning - might be beneficial for some forests… - increased resilience to further mortality - reduced crown fire risk
  65. 65. Fuego, Sierra Nevada, septiembre 2005 Cooperative Post-Fire Research Project, en Parque Nacional Sierra Nevada: -Univ. de Granada (Dr. Jorge Castro, Dr. Regino Zamora); -the Direction of the Natural and National Parks of Sierra Nevada; - the Consejería de Medio Ambiente of Granada (Junta de Andalucía); -Empresa de Gestión Medio Ambiental S.A. (EGMASA); - USGS.
  66. 66. Post-fire experimental treatments: - salvage cut + chip ESL - partial cut, leave branches PCL - control, non-intervention NI
  67. 67. Post-fire experimental treatments:
  68. 68. Post-fire experimental treatments:
  69. 69. Initial results: Better tree regeneration (P. pinaster), higher biodiversity (e.g., plants, birds), in partial cutting with coarse slash left, or no intervention.
  70. 70. Lots of useful climate change adaptation resources online, for example: Natural Resources Canada: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/synth/adapt_e.php USFS Climate Change Resource Center website: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/
  71. 71. Nosotros necesitamos arreglarlo…
  72. 72. Think Globally, Act Locally -- Together… Together There’s no place like home… While everyone is a citizen of the Earth, we all call a local landscape “home”. Our shared home landscapes are the best place to engage students and the public, and are essential places to learn and work together to address the challenges of climate change.
  73. 73. Gracias !
  74. 74. We can and must learn together through science and adaptive resource management – MNDDB’s !!!
  75. 75. White dots indicate documented localities with increased forest mortality related to climatic stress from drought and high temperatures. Background map shows potential limits to vegetation net primary production (Boisvenue and Running 2006). Allen et al – in review

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