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Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

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Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

  1. 1. Copyright © 2013 RNCOS. All rights reserved. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by RNCOS. All rights reserved. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.
  2. 2. Global Electric Cars - Overview The electrification of the global vehicle fleet is undoubtedly a long-term ambition. EV market shares are still below 1% in most major markets, due in part to high upfront costs, real and perceived range limitations, and a lack of consumer education. At the same time, there has been considerable progress in the global market, which suggests a relatively positive outlook. Units sold in the year 2011. Thus showing an annual growth of about 30%. According to The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers the Total Global Vehicle sale stood at 81.73 Million Units in 2012 compared to 77.93 Million Units sold in 2011 with a growth rate of 4.87% annually. Thus, in 2011 Electric Vehicles accounted for a share of 1.3% in the For instance, in 2012, the total number of the total vehicles market and around 1.6% in 2012. Electric Vehicles sold globally accounted for nearly 1.3 Million Units which rose from around 1.0 Million The year 2012 was marked by some notable milestones in terms of sales, global R&D efforts, and Global - Share of Electric Vehicles in Total Vehicle increased model diversity. The Global EV Sales Market (%), 2011 & 2012 witnessed a considerable hike between 2011 and 2012. Also there has been an increase over the past two years in both cumulative EV sales and the number of vehicle models being offered. Source: RNCOS In 2012 there were 20 EV models on sale from around 16 EV models in 2010. However, only 2-3 EV models were widely available to consumers in the market in 2010, which increased in 2012 to about 6-8 EV models widely available to the general public in several countries. The numbers show a strong correlation between sales and product variety. This suggests that more EV models coming to market would result in more choices for the consumer, and could further increase sales.
  3. 3. Currently Available Electric Vehicles in Market, 2013 Manufacturer Model Type Price (US$) Toyota Prius Plug-in hybrid 29,500 General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-in hybrid 31,645 Fisker Karma Plug-in hybrid 100,000 Nissan Leaf All Electric/Battery 27,700 Mitsubishi MIEV All Electric 21,625 Tesla Model S 40 KWh Model S 60 KWh Model S 85 KWh All Electric 49,900 59,900 69,900 Ford Focus All Electric 32,495 Honda Fit- EV All Electric 29,125 Toyota RAV4 EV All Electric 28,324 Coda Sedan All Electric 37,500 Source: Digital Trends Currently available Major electric cars are Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, REVA, Mini E, Smart 4-2 EV, Mitsubishi iMiEV, Prius EV, Focus EV, Fisker Karma, Tesla, CODA and other smaller companies. Currently Available Electric Vehicles in Market, 2013 Manufacturer Model Class Fiat 500e Minicompact Car Honda Fit EV Small Station Wagon Toyota Scion iQ EV Minicompact Car Dailmer Smart fortwo convertible Two Seater Dailmer Smart fortwo Coupe Two Seater Source: U.S Department of Energy Currently Available Electric Vehicles in Market, 2013 Manufacturer Model Class Expected Release Date General Motors Spark EV Subcompact Car Summer 2013 Volkswagen E-Up! Car Limited U.S. production by 2013; mass production by 2020 BMW i3 Car First Half 2014 Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV Car Early 2014 Kia Soul EV Small Station Wagon 2,014 Volkswagen eGolf Compact Car Late 2014 Source: U.S Department of Energy
  4. 4. Market Size and Growth The Global Electric Vehicle sales stood at 1.3 million units in 2012 and the market is expected to reach a number of 2.8 million units sold by 2017. Thus, the industry is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 17.1% during the years 2012 and 2017. Global - Electric Vehicles Sales (Million Units), 2012 & 2017 Annual worldwide sales of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to reach 3.8 million by 2020. The growth in sales of these vehicles is being driven not only by the appeal of vehicles themselves, but also by consumers demand for vehicles that cost less to operate than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, by government influence on market, and by rebounding economic environment. According to AutoObserver, in 2011 Toyota lead the market of hybrid EV with around 68% share. Further, Toyota would lead the market in 2015 also with around 38.4% share of the market, followed by Ford with 12.3 % and Nissan with about 10.5%. Source: Navigant Research Global - Forecast for Electric Vehicle Sales By Players (%), 2015 Source: Citi Investment Global - Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales By Players (units), Nov 2011 Source: AutoObserver Note: Other include Kia, BMW, Porsche, VW, Mercedes, Mitsubishi
  5. 5. Market By Category In 2012, the Hybrid Electric Vehicles accounted for 80.8% of the total electric vehicle sales, followed by the plug- in hybrid electric vehicles by 11.5% and Battery Electric Vehicle stood at the third position with 7.7% share in the total market. Global - Electric Vehicles Sales By Segment (%), 2012 Source: RNCOS It is projected that hybrid electric vehicle sales would decline in 2017, whereas the sales of plug in electric vehicles would experience a hike in the sales. According to the statistics, PEV market would also grow in many regions as a result of rising fuel prices, falling PEV prices, and increasing availability of PEV models. Global - Forecast for Electric Vehicles Sales By Segment (%), 2017 Source: Navigant Research
  6. 6. Market By Region United States lead the Electric cars market with 7,931 vehicles sold in Q2 2012, a 28% jump from the first quarter sales of 6210, followed by Japan with 4,240 units, France with 2056, and Germany had 1284 units sold in the second quater. Global - Electric Vehicles Sales By Segment (%), 2012 At the end of 2012, the highest sales shares of EVs were in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The main PHEV and BEV markets can be found in the 15 EVI (Electric Vehicle Initiative) countries with worldwide sales shares being about 96% and 89%, respectively. The largest share of the worldwide PHEV market is in the United States, due to the predominance of the Chevrolet Volt. Japan claims the second spot, largely due to increasing sales of the Toyota plug-in Prius. Global - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Sales By Country (%), 2012 Source: Various Industry Sources Source: Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI), International Energy Agency (IEA) EV sales in Q1-Q3 2012 only reached 1% of total vehicle sales in Norway and Japan, but as EVs begin to penetrate the automotive market, the shares are likely to increase. In fact, in the last quarter of 2012 EV sales reached over 1% of total vehicle sales in both the Netherlands and the United States, furthering gains in market share.
  7. 7. Number of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Registrations, 2011 & 2012 Country Total Plug-in Electric Vehicle Registrations Total Vehicle Registrations Plug-in Electric Vehicles Per Thousand Vehicles Norway 6,287 276,312 22.75 Estonia 562 32,617 17.23 Portugal 2,250 248,713 9.05 Austria 4,924 692,155 7.11 Netherlands 6,030 1,058,390 5.7 Poland 1,640 551,016 2.98 987 340,799 2.9 Switzerland 1,472 647,097 2.27 France 8,989 4,102,989 2.19 Sweden 1,128 584,883 1.93 Czech Republic 507 347,291 1.46 Slovakia 156 142,099 1.1 Belgium 1,148 1,058,948 1.08 Germany 6,553 6,256,138 1.05 United Kingdom 3,342 3,985,862 0.84 Spain 863 1,507,640 0.57 Latvia 13 25,636 0.51 Bulgaria 14 38,541 0.36 Hungary 34 98,162 0.35 Greece 2 156,164 0.01 Denmark Source: ACEA (2012) And in the worldwide BEV market, Japan holds the largest share due to sales of the Nissan LEAF, followed by the United States, then China, due in part to the use of electric taxis in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. France is in the fourth spot, in part dueto Bolloré's Bluecar, a part of the Paris EV car sharing scheme Autolib.
  8. 8. Global - Battery Electric Vehicles Sales By Country (%), 2012 Source: Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI), International Energy Agency (IEA) Global - Battery Electric Vehicles Sales By Country (%), 2012 Although total registrations of these vehicles in the UK had risen to 104,900 by the end of 2011, Britain has not enjoyed the same initial take. As a result the UK is sixth out of 20 in terms of total registrations of plug-in electric vehicles, and 15th in terms of registrations of these vehicles expressed as a percentage of all cars registered in 2011 and 2012. The UK is already lagging behind other countries. Further, In 2012 United States lead the market in Hybrid Electric Cars Sales too with about 48.8% share, followed by Japan with 33.3% then Europe with 10% share in the market. Source: U.S. Department of Energy Note: Data till June 2012
  9. 9. Future Outlook Hybrid and plug in electric vehicles are becoming an increasingly important part of the automotive market. HEVs are largely accepted as a part of the automotive market in many regions with around 80.8% share in the EV market, while plug-in vehicles remain a new technology with various challenges inherent in new markets with only around 11.5% of the total market share and far apart is the BEV market with just 7.7% share. However, Plug-in market is expected to grow in many regions to about 17.4% as a result of rising fuel prices, falling PEV prices, and increasing availability of PEV models. Further, with Automaker's advanced green-car engineering programs, electric cars are expected to have a major impact in the auto industry given advantages in city pollution, less dependence on oil, and expected rise in gasoline prices. World governments are pledging billions to fund development of electric vehicles and their components. So in the near future, there would be more electric cars on the market, and they'll be more affordable and practical. Moreover, the electric vehicles would catch on if car charging stations could keep up the charging requirements. Among the total electric cars travel the world's roads these days almost half of them in the U.S. The U.S. is expected to have the highest adoption of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles, with as many as 4.9% of vehicles sold including hybrid or plug-in vehicle technology. Despite the promise of "green" transportation - and despite billions of dollars in investment, by many major manufacturers EVs continue to be plagued by many of the problems which include high cost, short Also, a life-cycle analysis shows that almost half of an driving range, the public's lack of appetite for electric car's entire CO2 emissions result from its battery-powered cars and lack of charging stations. production, more than double the emissions resulting from the production of a gasoline-powered car. Thus, The gradual tightening of global fuel-efficiency reduced Carbon Emission Based Production standards from 2020 on is forcing automakers to Technology would help in making it more assess their options, including the application of environment friendly and convinient. advanced technology which would propel this industry to large extent.
  10. 10. Opportunities Automakers have taken it upon themselves to grow the public charging network to avoid the problem of nascent presence of public EV charging network and thus paving the way for higher electric vehicle adoption. For instance, Nissan, which makes the electric Leaf, is aiming to triple the number of 30-minute quickchargers in the U.S. to 600 by the middle of next year. That plan includes more than 100 quick-chargers at Nissan dealerships in about 50 key markets. The all-electric vehicle, the battery size moves up to around 23 kilowatt hours and it weighs around 600 to 700 pounds which proves to be very inconvenient for the user. For instance, recent advances in nano-technology are proving a popular avenue for lithium-ion batteriers of EV. Egg-line nanoparticles of sulfur are one option, improving energy transfer and hugely increasing capacity. Vehicle leasing is one potential pathway, and there is some evidence that competitive lease rates have already helped to bolster EV sales. For instance, Renault offers battery leasing for its Zoe and Twizy models, as does Daimler for its Smart Fortwo. These models charge a monthly fee of about USD 100 to lease the battery and often come with replacement guarantees. Challenges Primary reason is the price of car batteries. Price per usable kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery ranges between US $ 500-650 and thus makes up a large portion of a vehicle's cost, depending on the size of the battery pack. Electric cars often have less maximum range on one charge than cars powered by fossil fuels, and they can take considerable time to recharge. Most EVs can only go about 100-200 miles before recharging-gasoline vehicles can go over 300 miles before refueling. Fully recharging the battery pack can take 4 to 8 hours. Even a "quick charge" to 80% capacity can take 30 min. A possible solution to the recharging situation may be battery-replacement stations, where instead of recharging your EV you can simply swap your drained battery for a fully charged one.
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  13. 13. About US RNCOS is a business consultancy services firm that provides services to clients across the Globe. With more than a decade of industry experience and expertise, we boast of a distinguished clientele' across multi geographies and industry verticals. Our strength lies in the healthcare sector besides Retail and Information Technology. Be it market testing, product launch, competition assessment, customer satisfaction study, pricing analysis or any other requirement, RNCOS custom research team acts proactively to fit in the best possible solution for our valued clients. We believe in multi-level client interaction and complete transparency from the project commencement till effective implementation, thus ensuring total customer satisfaction at the end. Having served close to 200 renowned as well as start-ups globally, our strength lies in multilingual and multi geography tie-ups with leading market survey partners who assist us in gaining vital primary insight straight from the horse's mouth. Vartika Sehgal Sr. Research Specialist RNCOS B-129, Sector - 6, Noida - 201301 Phone: + 91 (120) 4224700 Fax: +91 (120) 4224707 Email: marketing@rncos.com Website: http://www.rncos.com

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