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Mergers & Acquisitions in Chemicals and Materials –
Light at the End of Tunnel is NOT that of the Approaching Train



                          Shrikanth S.
                     Senior Research Analyst
                  Business & Financial Services
                        October 27, 2009
Focus Points

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions


          Economic Indicators
              Industrial Production
              Federal Fund Rate
              Crude Oil
              Chemicals Index


          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments


          End Market Demand


          Conclusions

N68F-F1                                                     2
Focus Points

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions


          Economic Indicators
              Industrial Production
              Federal Fund Rate
              Crude Oil
              Chemicals Index


          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments


          End Market Demand


          Conclusions

N68F-F1                                                     3
Economic Indicators
             Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index                                              Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread                             Crude Oil Price & Stock Index
                  110
Indexed to Jan 2008




                  100


                           90


                           80


                           70
                                                   Chemical Products                   Chemical Materials                      Basic Chemicals                    Organic Chemicals
                                                   Inorganic Chemicals                 Industrial Gases                        Synthetic Dyes & Pigments          Paints Coatings & Adhesives
                           60
                                          Jan-08         Mar-08            May-08      Jul-08          Sep-08         Nov-08        Jan-09        Mar-09          May-09        Jul-09        Sep-09
                                                                                                                 Months
                                        12,000
             Baltic Dry Index (units)




                                        10,000

                                         8,000

                                         6,000
                                                       Baltic Dry Index
                                         4,000

                                         2,000
                                                                                                                  Months
                                            0
                                            Jan-06     Apr-06     Jul-06    Oct-06   Jan-07   Apr-07    Jul-07    Oct-07   Jan-08    Apr-08   Jul-08   Oct-08    Jan-09    Apr-09   Jul-09   Oct-09



         N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                      4
Economic Indicators
  Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index                                                                                                Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread                                                                                              Crude Oil Price & Stock Index

                                                                                                               3.5

                                                                                                               3.0




                                                                                              Percentage (%)
                                                                                                               2.5

                                                                                                               2.0                         Senior Bank Loan Survey

                                                                                                               1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Months
                                                                                                               1.0
                      7.0
                                                                                                               0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        LIBOR-OIS spread (%)
                      6.0                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                                 Jan-06                            Jul-06                      Jan-07                         Jul-07                         Jan-08                       Jul-08                            Jan-09    Jul-09 Oct-09
                      5.0
      Fund Rate (%)




                      4.0


                      3.0
                                                                                                                    Federal Funds Rate (%)
                      2.0

                      1.0
                                                                                                                                                   Months
                      0.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                                       May-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-09
                                                                May-01




                                                                                                                                 May-03
                                                                                                                                          Sep-03


                                                                                                                                                            May-04
                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-05


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        May-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-08
                                     May-00
                                              Sep-00




                                                                                           May-02




                                                                                                                                                   Jan-04




                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-06


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-08
                            Jan-00




                                                       Jan-01


                                                                         Sep-01




                                                                                                               Sep-02
                                                                                                                        Jan-03
                                                                                  Jan-02




N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
End Market Demand
                       Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index                                                                                          Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread                                                                                  Crude Oil Price & Stock Index
             130
             120
             110
             100
              90
$/barrel




              80
              70
              60
              50
                                           Crude oil price (Refiners acquisition cost - composite)
              40
              30
              20
              10
               0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-07
                                                                                                 Jan-02




                                                                                                                                      Jan-03


                                                                                                                                                     Jul-03


                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-09
                            Jan-00




                                                                 Jan-01




                                                                                                                    Jul-02




                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09
                                               Jul-00




                                                                               Jul-01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-08
                       300                                                                                                                                                             Months
 Indexed to Jan 2005




                       250

                       200

                       150

                       100

                       50                                                     S&P ASX 200 Materials                                                                    Basic Materials                                                                   S&P Chemicals
                                                                              Dow Jones US Chemicals Index                                                             FTSE 350                                                                          S&P 500
                                                                                                                                                                                   Days
                        0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 08
                                                                                        Nov 05




                                                                                                                                                              Nov 06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May 09
                                                        May 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May 08
                                                                                                                             May 06




                                                                                                                                                                                                May 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep 08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep 09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar 09
                                                                          Sep 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep 07
                                                                                                                                                Sep 06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan 09
                                                                                                           Mar 06




                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 07
                                      Mar 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 08
                             Jan 05




                                                                                                  Jan 06




                                                                                                                                                                         Jan 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan 08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul 09
                                                                 Jul 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul 08
                                                                                                                                       Jul 06




      N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
Focus Points

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions


          Economic Indicators
              Industrial Production
              Federal Fund Rate
              Crude Oil
              Chemicals Index


          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments


          End Market Demand


          Conclusions

N68F-F1                                                     7
Analysis of Trends
                    Time                      Integration            Deal Volume & Size             Acquirer Profile              Geography               Segment


            180                                                                                                                                                1600.0
                                                                                                                  Maximum number of deals in
                                                                                                                  recessionary period, though
            160                                                                                                    of small average deal size.                 1400.0

                                                Deals by Quarter       Year over Year by Quarters
            140
                                                                                                                                                               1200.0




                                                                                                                                                                           Average Deal Size ($ million)
            120
                                                                                                                                                               1000.0

            100
                                                                                                                                                               800.0
Deals (x)




            80
                                                                                                                                                               600.0
            60

                                                                                                                                                               400.0
            40


            20                                                                                                                                                 200.0


             0                                                                                                                                                 0.0
                  2000   2000   2001   2001     2002   2002   2003    2003   2004   2004   2005     2005   2006    2006    2007   2007   2008    2008   2009
                   Q1     Q3     Q1     Q3       Q1     Q3     Q1      Q3     Q1     Q3     Q1       Q3     Q1      Q3      Q1     Q3     Q1      Q3     Q1
                                                                                    Quarter




                                                                                                                               Source: Frost & Sullivan


  N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                              8
Analysis of Trends
          Time                Integration          Deal Volume & Size         Acquirer Profile          Geography          Segment



                     400

                     350                                Acquisitions among companies to
                                                        companies and distribution to
                     300                                distribution has a 63.4% correlation

                     250
             Deals




                     200
                           321
                     150
                                       259                                                       242
                                                                    228       220       216
                     100                        189       182                                                        178
                                                                                                           135
                     50

                      0
                           2000       2001      2002     2003       2004     2005       2006     2007      2008     May 2009
                                                                        Year
                                  Company                   Company Buyback             Distribution
                                  Forward Integration       Backward Integration        Research & Development



                                                                                                   Source: Frost & Sullivan


N68F-F1                                                                                                                              9
Analysis of Trends
          Time                            Average Deal Size ($ million)                    Integration      Deal Volume & Size            Acquirer Profile          Geography               Segment


                                                                            50.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                Average Deal Size ($ million)
                                                                            45.0                                                                                                      300.0
                                                                            40.0                                                                                                      250.0
                                                                            35.0
                                                                            30.0                                                                                                      200.0
                                                                            25.0                                                                                                      150.0
                                                                            20.0
                                                                            15.0                                                                                                      100.0
                                                                            10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                      50.0
                                                                             5.0
                                                                             0.0                                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                    2000    2000   2001   2002   2003   2003     2004   2005     2006     2006   2007   2008   2009
                                                                                     Q1      Q4     Q3     Q2     Q1     Q4       Q3     Q2       Q1       Q4     Q3     Q2     Q1
                                                                                                                                Quarter

                                                                                                                    <100 million      101-500 million




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Average Deal Size ($ million)
                                                                          2500.0                                                                                                      20000.0
          Average Deal Size ($ million)




                                                                          2000.0                                                                                                      16000.0

                                                                          1500.0                                                                                                      12000.0

                                                                          1000.0                                                                                                      8000.0

                                                                           500.0                                                                                                      4000.0

                                                                              0.0                                                                                                     0.0
                                                                                    2000    2000   2001   2002   2003    2003    2004   2005      2006    2006   2007   2008   2009
                                                                                     Q1      Q4     Q3     Q2     Q1      Q4      Q3     Q2        Q1      Q4     Q3     Q2     Q1
                                                                                                                                Quarter

                                                                                                                   501-2000 million       >2000 million           Source: Frost & Sullivan


N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10
Analysis of Trends - Analysis by Time
          Time                              Integration        Deal Volume & Size      Acquirer Profile       Geography            Segment



                               100.0
                                90.0
                                80.0
            Acquirer Profile




                                70.0
                                60.0
                                                                                                                                         Increase
                                50.0
                                                                                                                                       in strategic
                                40.0                                                                                                       M&A
                                30.0
                                20.0
                                10.0
                                 0.0
                                        2000      2001      2002     2003     2004      2005    2006      2007     2008    May 2009
                                                                                    Year
                                Alternative Financial Investments   Asset Management                   Banks
                                Brokerage                           Insurance                          Other Financials
                                Chemicals                           Construction Materials             Containers & Packaging
                                Metals & Mining                     Other Materials                    Paper & Forest Products
                                Others



                                                                                                            Source: Frost & Sullivan


N68F-F1                                                                                                                                         11
Analysis of Trends
          Time                Integration          Deal Volume & Size          Acquirer Profile      Geography         Segment
              Regions         2000       2001          2002   2003      2004        2005     2006    2007   2008   May 2009

          Acquiring Regions Acquisitions in Percent (%)

          North America        0.6        1.0          1.4    1.0       2.4         5.4       3.6     1.8   20.3     26.2

          BRICS                4.2        3.5          4.7    3.0       2.8         3.3       5.2     5.7   12.7     20.5

          Asia Pacific         0.3        0.3          0.0    0.0       0.0         0.4       0.4     0.4   3.8      9.2

          Northern Europe      22.3       23.2         23.6   24.0      26.0        26.6      22.7   26.9   19.6     11.3

          Western Europe       38.4       43.6         46.2   41.0      48.8        41.1      42.2   43.7   25.9     13.3

          Eastern Europe       14.2       9.7          7.1    8.0       6.8         8.3       9.6     5.0   3.8      1.0

          Southern Europe      18.4       16.6         14.2   20.5      10.8        10.8      14.7   15.4   9.5      9.2

          Rest-of-World        1.7        2.1          2.8    2.5       2.4         4.1       1.6     1.1   4.4      9.2

          Target Regions Acquisitions in Percent (%)

          North America        14.7       10.0         16.7   17.1      13.8        16.4      14.1   11.5   29.6     30.3

          BRICS                3.9        4.8          4.8    4.5       2.0         7.4       7.3     5.8   7.5      20.5

          Asia Pacific         1.7        1.0          1.9    3.5       2.0         2.5       2.8     1.4   8.8      8.7

          Northern Europe      21.4       25.6         21.9   21.1      26.0        24.6      22.2   21.2   14.5     8.7

          Western Europe       36.4       39.4         36.7   33.2      39.8        36.9      36.7   39.2   28.9     10.8

          Eastern Europe       7.2        4.8          4.3    4.0       2.4         2.9       4.0     5.4   1.9      1.5

          Southern Europe      13.3       11.8         11.4   15.1      10.6        8.6       9.7    12.2   5.0      11.3

          Rest-of-World        1.4        2.4          2.4    1.5       3.3         0.8       3.2     3.2   3.8      8.2


N68F-F1                                                                                                                          12
Analysis of Trends
                 Time                       Integration                 Deal Volume & Size                         Acquirer Profile                     Geography                             Segment

               300                                                                                                                                                                                        288
                                                                                                                                                                                                    283

                                                                                                                                                                                              253
               250                              Commodity polymers, paints and coatings,                                                                                               240
                                                and pharmaceutical fine chemicals saw the
                                                 maximum acquisitions in the period 2000-                                                                                        218
                                                                                                                                                                        211
                                                May 2009. However, during Jan-May 2009,
               200                                packaging and construction materials                                                                      192 197
                                                   accounted for majority of the M&As.                                                                179
                                                                                                                                           172 173
   Deals (x)




                                                                                                                                    156
                                                                                                                              151
               150                                                                                                      142
                                                                                                                  126
                                                                                                       109 114
               100
                                                                                         84
                                                                                   77 79
                                                       67 71 71
                                           60 61 64 65
                                     51
               50
                                34
                           27
                     8
                0
                                                                                                                  WTC




                                                                                                                                                                        PCC&HC
                                                                                                       TA

                                                                                                            CPC




                                                                                                                                           I&C
                                                                                                O&MC




                                                                                                                                                 CM
                                                                  RC




                                                                                   Gas
                                           CC




                                                                             L&G




                                                                                                                                                                                              API
                                                                                                                                                                                       AC&F
                                                            Cat
                                     HPP



                                                 EC




                                                                                         Elas




                                                                                                                                                                                 A&S
                     PFE



                                FA




                                                                                                                        P&P

                                                                                                                              PA




                                                                                                                                                      F&B

                                                                                                                                                            P&CA
                                                      Bio




                                                                       E&E




                                                                                                                                    Pack
                           PE




                                                                                                                                                                   EP




                                                                                                                                                                                                          CP
                                                                                                                                                                                                    P&C
                                                                                                        Segments


                                                                                                                                                      Source: Frost & Sullivan


N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                                     13
Focus Points

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions


          Economic Indicators
              Industrial Production
              Federal Fund Rate
              Crude Oil
              Chemicals Index


          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments


          End Market Demand


          Conclusions

N68F-F1                                                     14
End Market Demand
                                                           Housing Market                                                   Automotive Market & Semiconductor Market
                                2250
Housing Starts (in thousands)




                                2000                       Housing Starts
                                1750
                                1500
                                1250
                                1000
                                750
                                500
                                250
                                  0
                                       Jan   Jun   Nov   Apr   Sep Feb      Jul   Dec May Oct       Mar   Aug Jan     Jun    Nov   Apr   Sep Feb   Jul   Dec May   Oct   Mar           Aug
                                       00    00    00    01     01 02       02     02  03 03        04     04   05    05     05    06     06 07    07     07  08   08    09             09
                                                                                                            Months                                                                      20.0




                                                                                                                                                                          Growth (%)
                                210                 Case-Shiller Price Index (Composite 20)
                                                    Year-on-Year Monthly Growth in Price                                                                                                15.0
       Case Shiller Index (x)




                                180
                                                                                                                                                                                        10.0
                                150
                                                                                                                                                                                        5.0
                                120
                                                                                                                                                                                        0.0
                                 90
                                                                                                                                                                                        (5.0)
                                 60                                                                                                                                                     (10.0)

                                 30                                                                                                                                                     (15.0)
                                                                                                          Months
                                  0                                                                                                                                                     (20.0)
                                       Jan   Jun   Nov Apr     Sep Feb      Jul   Dec May     Oct   Mar   Aug   Jan   Jun    Nov Apr     Sep Feb   Jul   Dec May   Oct   Mar
                                       00    00    00 01        01  02      02     02  03     03    04     04   05    05     05  06       06  07   07     07  08   08    09

    N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                              15
End Market Demand
                                                                      Housing Market                                                   Automotive Market & Semiconductor Market


                                    60,000                                                                                                                  647                      700




                                                                                                                                                                                              Bus Production (000's)`
                                                                                          51,034                                             614                               677
Production (000's)




                                                                        48,656                              48,566           576
                                                            45,517                                                                                                                   600
                                    50,000
                                                                                                                                                                       49,841
                                                                                                                             46,162            47,259       48,375                   500
                                    40,000                                                                   536
                                                                                                495
                                                                                                                               Every auto produced in the US                         400
                                    30,000                    284             439                                             contains $2700 worth chemicals
                                                                                                                                                                                     300
                                                                         15,442          16,045             15,756          15,432          15,374                     15,679
                                    20,000                   15,932                                                                                          15,488
                                                                                                                                                                                     200
                                    10,000                                                                                                                                           100

                                                       0                                                                                                                             0
                                                             2005         2006             2007             2008            2009             2010           2011       2012
                                                                                                                 Years
                                                                                    Car Production             LCV Production                 Bus Production
                                                   250.00
                                                                                      Americas        Japan
                     Market Billings ($ billion)




                                                   200.00                             Europe          Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                                               115       124             127
                                                                         51                                                                          102
                                                                                                                                     87
                                                   150.00
                                                               36        46              41                          61
                                                                                                       50                                                         46      48
                                                   100.00                                                                             46             44                                  49
                                                               32                         35
                                                                         42                                          38
                                                                                                       30
                                                               31                                                                     39             40           40      41             40
                                                   50.00                                  32                         32
                                                                                                       27
                                                                         63
                                                               46                         39           31            32               39             40           45      43             39
                                                    0.00
                                                              2000       2001            2002         2003           2004            2005            2006      2007      2008            2009
                                                                                                                            Years

          N68F-F1                                                                                                                                                                                                       16
Focus Points

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions


          Economic Indicators
              Industrial Production
              Federal Fund Rate
              Crude Oil
              Chemicals Index


          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments


          End Market Demand


          Conclusions

N68F-F1                                                     17
Detailed Table of Contents

          Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions

          Analysis of Trends
              Analysis by Time
              Trend by Integration
              Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size
              Analysis by Acquirer Profile
              Analysis by Geography
              Analysis by Segments

          Economic Indicators
              Global GDP Growth
              Bank Lending
              Consumer Confidence
              US Saving Rate
              Crude Oil
              Baltic Dry Index
              Chemicals Index
              Capacity Utilization

N68F-F1                                                     18
Detailed Table of Contents

          End Market Demand
              Autos
              Housing
              Semiconductors
              Oil Rigs

          Conclusions
              Concluding Thoughts

          About Frost & Sullivan




N68F-F1                             19
Next Steps




          Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth:
          The Growth Excellence Model: Competitive Benchmarking & Growth

          Investing (November 3, 2009) (http://www.frost.com/growth)


          Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and
          keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities
          (www.frost.com/news)




N68F-F1                                                                       20
For Additional Information




   Johanna Haynes                    Lori Salazar-Malone
   Corporate Communications          North American Sales Director
   (210) 247-3870                    Business & Financial Services
   johanna.haynes@frost.com          (210) 247-2448
                                     lsalazar-malone@frost.com




   Andrew Calvert                    Jennifer O’Grady
   Vice President                    Research Director
   Business and Financial Services   Business & Financial Services
   44 (0)20 7343 8373                (214) 887-1818
   andrew.calvert@frost.com          jogrady@frost.com




N68F-F1                                                              21

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M&amp;A In Chemicals And Materials 10 27 09

  • 1. Mergers & Acquisitions in Chemicals and Materials – Light at the End of Tunnel is NOT that of the Approaching Train Shrikanth S. Senior Research Analyst Business & Financial Services October 27, 2009
  • 2. Focus Points Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Economic Indicators Industrial Production Federal Fund Rate Crude Oil Chemicals Index Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments End Market Demand Conclusions N68F-F1 2
  • 3. Focus Points Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Economic Indicators Industrial Production Federal Fund Rate Crude Oil Chemicals Index Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments End Market Demand Conclusions N68F-F1 3
  • 4. Economic Indicators Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread Crude Oil Price & Stock Index 110 Indexed to Jan 2008 100 90 80 70 Chemical Products Chemical Materials Basic Chemicals Organic Chemicals Inorganic Chemicals Industrial Gases Synthetic Dyes & Pigments Paints Coatings & Adhesives 60 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Months 12,000 Baltic Dry Index (units) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Baltic Dry Index 4,000 2,000 Months 0 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 N68F-F1 4
  • 5. Economic Indicators Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread Crude Oil Price & Stock Index 3.5 3.0 Percentage (%) 2.5 2.0 Senior Bank Loan Survey 1.5 Months 1.0 7.0 0.5 LIBOR-OIS spread (%) 6.0 0.0 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 5.0 Fund Rate (%) 4.0 3.0 Federal Funds Rate (%) 2.0 1.0 Months 0.0 May-09 Sep-09 May-05 Jan-09 May-01 May-03 Sep-03 May-04 Sep-04 Sep-05 May-06 May-07 Sep-07 May-08 Sep-08 May-00 Sep-00 May-02 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 Sep-02 Jan-03 Jan-02 N68F-F1 5
  • 6. End Market Demand Industrial Production & Baltic Dry Index Fed Fund Rate & LIBOR-OIS Spread Crude Oil Price & Stock Index 130 120 110 100 90 $/barrel 80 70 60 50 Crude oil price (Refiners acquisition cost - composite) 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-07 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-09 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-07 Jul-08 300 Months Indexed to Jan 2005 250 200 150 100 50 S&P ASX 200 Materials Basic Materials S&P Chemicals Dow Jones US Chemicals Index FTSE 350 S&P 500 Days 0 Nov 08 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 May 09 May 05 May 08 May 06 May 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Mar 09 Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 06 Jan 09 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 05 Mar 08 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jul 09 Jul 05 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 06 N68F-F1 6
  • 7. Focus Points Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Economic Indicators Industrial Production Federal Fund Rate Crude Oil Chemicals Index Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments End Market Demand Conclusions N68F-F1 7
  • 8. Analysis of Trends Time Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment 180 1600.0 Maximum number of deals in recessionary period, though 160 of small average deal size. 1400.0 Deals by Quarter Year over Year by Quarters 140 1200.0 Average Deal Size ($ million) 120 1000.0 100 800.0 Deals (x) 80 600.0 60 400.0 40 20 200.0 0 0.0 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Quarter Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 8
  • 9. Analysis of Trends Time Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment 400 350 Acquisitions among companies to companies and distribution to 300 distribution has a 63.4% correlation 250 Deals 200 321 150 259 242 228 220 216 100 189 182 178 135 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 May 2009 Year Company Company Buyback Distribution Forward Integration Backward Integration Research & Development Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 9
  • 10. Analysis of Trends Time Average Deal Size ($ million) Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment 50.0 Average Deal Size ($ million) 45.0 300.0 40.0 250.0 35.0 30.0 200.0 25.0 150.0 20.0 15.0 100.0 10.0 50.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Quarter <100 million 101-500 million Average Deal Size ($ million) 2500.0 20000.0 Average Deal Size ($ million) 2000.0 16000.0 1500.0 12000.0 1000.0 8000.0 500.0 4000.0 0.0 0.0 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Quarter 501-2000 million >2000 million Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 10
  • 11. Analysis of Trends - Analysis by Time Time Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment 100.0 90.0 80.0 Acquirer Profile 70.0 60.0 Increase 50.0 in strategic 40.0 M&A 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 May 2009 Year Alternative Financial Investments Asset Management Banks Brokerage Insurance Other Financials Chemicals Construction Materials Containers & Packaging Metals & Mining Other Materials Paper & Forest Products Others Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 11
  • 12. Analysis of Trends Time Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment Regions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 May 2009 Acquiring Regions Acquisitions in Percent (%) North America 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.0 2.4 5.4 3.6 1.8 20.3 26.2 BRICS 4.2 3.5 4.7 3.0 2.8 3.3 5.2 5.7 12.7 20.5 Asia Pacific 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.8 9.2 Northern Europe 22.3 23.2 23.6 24.0 26.0 26.6 22.7 26.9 19.6 11.3 Western Europe 38.4 43.6 46.2 41.0 48.8 41.1 42.2 43.7 25.9 13.3 Eastern Europe 14.2 9.7 7.1 8.0 6.8 8.3 9.6 5.0 3.8 1.0 Southern Europe 18.4 16.6 14.2 20.5 10.8 10.8 14.7 15.4 9.5 9.2 Rest-of-World 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 1.1 4.4 9.2 Target Regions Acquisitions in Percent (%) North America 14.7 10.0 16.7 17.1 13.8 16.4 14.1 11.5 29.6 30.3 BRICS 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.5 2.0 7.4 7.3 5.8 7.5 20.5 Asia Pacific 1.7 1.0 1.9 3.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 1.4 8.8 8.7 Northern Europe 21.4 25.6 21.9 21.1 26.0 24.6 22.2 21.2 14.5 8.7 Western Europe 36.4 39.4 36.7 33.2 39.8 36.9 36.7 39.2 28.9 10.8 Eastern Europe 7.2 4.8 4.3 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.0 5.4 1.9 1.5 Southern Europe 13.3 11.8 11.4 15.1 10.6 8.6 9.7 12.2 5.0 11.3 Rest-of-World 1.4 2.4 2.4 1.5 3.3 0.8 3.2 3.2 3.8 8.2 N68F-F1 12
  • 13. Analysis of Trends Time Integration Deal Volume & Size Acquirer Profile Geography Segment 300 288 283 253 250 Commodity polymers, paints and coatings, 240 and pharmaceutical fine chemicals saw the maximum acquisitions in the period 2000- 218 211 May 2009. However, during Jan-May 2009, 200 packaging and construction materials 192 197 accounted for majority of the M&As. 179 172 173 Deals (x) 156 151 150 142 126 109 114 100 84 77 79 67 71 71 60 61 64 65 51 50 34 27 8 0 WTC PCC&HC TA CPC I&C O&MC CM RC Gas CC L&G API AC&F Cat HPP EC Elas A&S PFE FA P&P PA F&B P&CA Bio E&E Pack PE EP CP P&C Segments Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 13
  • 14. Focus Points Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Economic Indicators Industrial Production Federal Fund Rate Crude Oil Chemicals Index Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments End Market Demand Conclusions N68F-F1 14
  • 15. End Market Demand Housing Market Automotive Market & Semiconductor Market 2250 Housing Starts (in thousands) 2000 Housing Starts 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug 00 00 00 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 09 09 Months 20.0 Growth (%) 210 Case-Shiller Price Index (Composite 20) Year-on-Year Monthly Growth in Price 15.0 Case Shiller Index (x) 180 10.0 150 5.0 120 0.0 90 (5.0) 60 (10.0) 30 (15.0) Months 0 (20.0) Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar 00 00 00 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 09 N68F-F1 15
  • 16. End Market Demand Housing Market Automotive Market & Semiconductor Market 60,000 647 700 Bus Production (000's)` 51,034 614 677 Production (000's) 48,656 48,566 576 45,517 600 50,000 49,841 46,162 47,259 48,375 500 40,000 536 495 Every auto produced in the US 400 30,000 284 439 contains $2700 worth chemicals 300 15,442 16,045 15,756 15,432 15,374 15,679 20,000 15,932 15,488 200 10,000 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Years Car Production LCV Production Bus Production 250.00 Americas Japan Market Billings ($ billion) 200.00 Europe Asia Pacific 115 124 127 51 102 87 150.00 36 46 41 61 50 46 48 100.00 46 44 49 32 35 42 38 30 31 39 40 40 41 40 50.00 32 32 27 63 46 39 31 32 39 40 45 43 39 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Years N68F-F1 16
  • 17. Focus Points Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Economic Indicators Industrial Production Federal Fund Rate Crude Oil Chemicals Index Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments End Market Demand Conclusions N68F-F1 17
  • 18. Detailed Table of Contents Introduction to Mergers & Acquisitions Analysis of Trends Analysis by Time Trend by Integration Analysis by Deal Volume & Average Deal Size Analysis by Acquirer Profile Analysis by Geography Analysis by Segments Economic Indicators Global GDP Growth Bank Lending Consumer Confidence US Saving Rate Crude Oil Baltic Dry Index Chemicals Index Capacity Utilization N68F-F1 18
  • 19. Detailed Table of Contents End Market Demand Autos Housing Semiconductors Oil Rigs Conclusions Concluding Thoughts About Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 19
  • 20. Next Steps Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth: The Growth Excellence Model: Competitive Benchmarking & Growth Investing (November 3, 2009) (http://www.frost.com/growth) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) N68F-F1 20
  • 21. For Additional Information Johanna Haynes Lori Salazar-Malone Corporate Communications North American Sales Director (210) 247-3870 Business & Financial Services johanna.haynes@frost.com (210) 247-2448 lsalazar-malone@frost.com Andrew Calvert Jennifer O’Grady Vice President Research Director Business and Financial Services Business & Financial Services 44 (0)20 7343 8373 (214) 887-1818 andrew.calvert@frost.com jogrady@frost.com N68F-F1 21