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Baseball Play Study 2016冬〜Replacement!(ありがとう陽岱鋼!)

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Baseball Play Study 2016冬(BPStudy#112) 2016/12/19発表資料
WARを使わないReplacement(代替可能選手)の考え方

Published in: Sports
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Baseball Play Study 2016冬〜Replacement!(ありがとう陽岱鋼!)

  1. 1. Replacement!(& ! !!) Baseball Play Study 2016 (BPStudy #112) Shinichi Nakagawa(Pythonista & Baseball Analyst)
  2. 2. Starting Member • Who am I ? • Replacement # • # • & PyData •
  3. 3. Who am I? • Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke) • Python , Web • Python/Agile/PyData/SABRmetrics( ) • Baseball Play Study (2014 ) • ( ) .
  4. 4. ‘ ’.replace(‘Who?’) ( IT )Python .
  5. 5. Replacement #
  6. 6. • Replacement ( ) ,
 
 . • “ =Replacement level 1( )” ,
 ( ) . • WAR .
 ※WAR = Wins Above Replacement( ) • WAR2 , 4 ,1
  7. 7. , WAR , …
  8. 8. WAR • , .
 OK • .
 . • , 
 or . • .
  9. 9. • • • , 
 
 ( )
  10. 10. • WAR , . • PyData 
 . • FA ,
 12 .
  11. 11. #31 • 2013 3 • (25 ) • 
 • • 
 #
  12. 12. #64 • 2010 5 • (24 ) • • • • •
  13. 13. #33 • 2008 1 ( ) • (26) • • ( ) • ( ) • No.1 •
  14. 14. • 1 2 • & • ,
  15. 15. , +
  16. 16. …!
  17. 17. #33 • 2008 1 ( ) • (26) • • ( ) • ( ) • No.1 •
  18. 18. ( ) • UZR/DRS ( …w) • 
 & • NG( OK) • #
  19. 19. PyData ( )
  20. 20. • RC27 • 
 2016 RC27 • 3 ( ) • Python(scrapy,pandas )
 #
  21. 21. RC27(Run Created / 27outs) • RC(Run Created) 27 (≒ ) • “9 VS 9 ?”
 • RC27 =(( A × B) / C) / 27outs
 ※ • .
  22. 22. RC27 Top20(NPB 2016) @shinyorke , 100
  23. 23. RC27 histogram @shinyorke , 100 3 5 ,6
  24. 24. RC27 + (2016) @shinyorke , 100
  25. 25. RC27 + (2016) @shinyorke , 100
  26. 26. RC27 + (2016) @shinyorke , 100
  27. 27. RC27 + (2016) @shinyorke , 100
  28. 28. …!
  29. 29. #31 • 2013 3 • (25 ) • 
 • • 
 #
  30. 30. ( ) • • ? RC27 •
  31. 31. RC27 Top20 @shinyorke , 100
  32. 32. RC27 histogram @shinyorke , 100 3 5 ,6
  33. 33. 2017( ) 1.( ) 2.( ) 3.( ) 4.( ) 5.( ) 6.( ) 7.( ) 8.( ) 9.( ) ( )
  34. 34.
  35. 35. • • • ??? # • ??? #
  36. 36. 2017( 2) 1.( ) 2.( ) 3.( ) 4.( ) 5.( ) 6.( ) or 7.( ) 8.( ) 9.( ) or ( ) ( ) & or
  37. 37. • 
 
 • & ( & ) • • •
  38. 38. & Shinichi Nakagawa(Twitter/Facebook/visasQ:@shinyorke)

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