The millennium development_goals__an__analysis_report
The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012UNITED NATIONS
This report, reviewed and finalized by Dr Malik Khalid Mehmood PhD, Senior Advisor, is based on a master set of data that has been compiled by an Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDGIndicators led by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, in response to thewishes of the General Assembly for periodic assessment of progress towards the MDGs. The Group comprisesrepresentatives of the international organizations whose activities include the preparation of one or more of the seriesof statistical indicators that were identified as appropriate for monitoring progress towards the MDGs, as reflected inthe list below. A number of national statisticians and outside expert advisers also contributed.INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATIONFOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSUNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATIONUNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION Cover InsideWORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATIONTHE WORLD BANKINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDINTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNIONECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICAECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPEECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR WESTERN ASIAJOINT UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON HIV/AIDSUNITED NATIONS CHILDRENS FUNDUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTUNITED NATIONS ENTITY FOR GENDER Equality AND THE EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN - UNWOMENUNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMEUNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMMEUNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGEUNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEESUNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMMEUNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUNDINTERNATIONAL TRADE CENTREINTER-PARLIAMENTARY UNIONORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION ANDDEVELOPMENTWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
The Millennium Development GoalsReport 2012U ni t e d na t i on snew York, 2012
fore word | 3ForewordThis years report on progress towards the Millennium The goal of gender equality also remains unfulfilled, againDevelopment Goals (MDGs) highlights several milestones. with broad negative consequences, given that achievingThe target of reducing extreme poverty by half has been the MDGs depends so much on womens empowermentreached five years ahead of the 2015 deadline, as has and equal access by women to education, work, healththe target of halving the proportion of people who lack care and decision-making. We must also recognize thedependable access to improved sources of drinking water. unevenness of progress within countries and regions,Conditions for more than 200 million people living in slums and the severe inequalities that exist among populations,have been ameliorated—double the 2020 target. Primary especially between rural and urban areas.school enrolment of girls equalled that of boys, and wehave seen accelerating progress in reducing child and Achieving the MDGs by 2015 is challenging but possible.maternal mortality. Much depends on the fulfilment of MDG-8—the global partnership for development. The current economicThese results represent a tremendous reduction in human crises besetting much of the developed world must notsuffering and are a clear validation of the approach be allowed to decelerate or reverse the progress thatembodied in the MDGs. But, they are not a reason to has been made. Let us build on the successes we haverelax. Projections indicate that in 2015 more than achieved so far, and let us not relent until all the MDGs600 million people worldwide will still be using have been attained.unimproved water sources, almost one billion will be livingon an income of less than $1.25 per day, mothers willcontinue to die needlessly in childbirth, and children willsuffer and die from preventable diseases. Hunger remainsa global challenge, and ensuring that all children are ableto complete primary education remains a fundamental,but unfulfilled, target that has an impact on all the other B an K i - moonGoals. Lack of safe sanitation is hampering progress in Secretary-General, United Nationshealth and nutrition, biodiversity loss continues apace, andgreenhouse gas emissions continue to pose a major threatto people and ecosystems.
4 | t h e M i l l e n n i U M d e v e l o p M e n t G o a l s r e p o r t 2 0 12OverviewThree years to the deadline, we can have benefited the most. The ratio between the enrolment rate of girls and that of boys grew from 91 in 1999 to 97report broad progress on the MDGs in 2010 for all developing regions. The gender parity index value of 97 falls within the plus-or-minus 3-point margin ofThe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) agreed to by 100 per cent, the accepted measure for parity.world leaders over a decade ago have achieved importantresults. Working together, Governments, the United Nations • Many countries facing the greatest challenges havefamily, the private sector and civil society have succeeded in made significant progress towards universal primarysaving many lives and improving conditions for many more. educationThe world has met some important targets—ahead of the Enrolment rates of children of primary school age increaseddeadline. markedly in sub-Saharan Africa, from 58 to 76 per cent• Extreme poverty is falling in every region between 1999 and 2010. Many countries in that region succeeded in reducing their relatively high out-of-school ratesFor the first time since poverty trends began to be monitored, even as their primary school age populations were growing.the number of people living in extreme poverty and povertyrates fell in every developing region—including in sub- • Child survival progress is gaining momentumSaharan Africa, where rates are highest. The proportion of Despite population growth, the number of under-five deathspeople living on less than $1.25 a day fell from 47 per cent worldwide fell from more than 12.0 million in 1990 to 7.6in 1990 to 24 per cent in 2008—a reduction from over million in 2010. And progress in the developing world as2 billion to less than 1.4 billion. a whole has accelerated. Sub-Saharan Africa—the region• The poverty reduction target was met with the highest level of under-five mortality—has doubled its average rate of reduction, from 1.2 per cent a year overPreliminary estimates indicate that the global poverty rate at 1990-2000 to 2.4 per cent during 2000-2010.$1.25 a day fell in 2010 to less than half the 1990 rate. Ifthese results are confirmed, the first target of the MDGs— • Access to treatment for people living with HIVcutting the extreme poverty rate to half its 1990 level—will increased in all regionshave been achieved at the global level well ahead of 2015. At the end of 2010, 6.5 million people were receiving• The world has met the target of halving the proportion antiretroviral therapy for HIV or AIDS in developing regions. This total constitutes an increase of over 1.4 million people of people without access to improved sources of water from December 2009, and the largest one-year increaseThe target of halving the proportion of people without ever. The 2010 target of universal access, however, was notsustainable access to safe drinking water was also met by reached.2010, with the proportion of people using an improvedwater source rising from 76 per cent in 1990 to 89 per cent • The world is on track to achieve the target of haltingin 2010. Between 1990 and 2010, over two billion people and beginning to reverse the spread of tuberculosisgained access to improved drinking water sources, such as Globally, tuberculosis incidence rates have been falling sincepiped supplies and protected wells. 2002, and current projections suggest that the 1990 death• Improvements in the lives of 200 million slum dwellers rate from the disease will be halved by 2015. exceeded the slum target • Global malaria deaths have declinedThe share of urban residents in the developing world living The estimated incidence of malaria has decreased globally,in slums declined from 39 per cent in 2000 to 33 per cent by 17 per cent since 2000. Over the same period,in 2012. More than 200 million gained access to either malaria-specific mortality rates have decreased by 25 perimproved water sources, improved sanitation facilities, or cent. Reported malaria cases fell by more than 50 per centdurable or less crowded housing. This achievement exceeds between 2000 and 2010 in 43 of the 99 countries withthe target of significantly improving the lives of at least ongoing malaria transmission.100 million slum dwellers, well ahead of the 2020 deadline.• The world has achieved parity in primary education between girls and boysDriven by national and international efforts and the MDGcampaign, many more of the worlds children are enrolledin school at the primary level, especially since 2000. Girls
overvie w | 5Inequality is detracting from these gains, In the years ahead, we have theand slowing advances in other key areas opportunity to achieve more and to shape the agenda for our futureAchievements were unequally distributed across and withinregions and countries. Moreover, progress has slowed for The 2015 deadline is fast approaching. The contributionssome MDGs after the multiple crises of 2008-2009. of national Governments, the international community, civil society and the private sector will need to intensify• Vulnerable employment has decreased only marginally as we take on the longstanding and long-term challenge over twenty years of inequality, and press forward on food security, genderVulnerable employment—defined as the share of equality, maternal health, rural development, infrastructureunpaid family workers and own-account workers in total and environmental sustainability, and responses to climateemployment—accounted for an estimated 58 per cent of change.all employment in developing regions in 2011, down onlymoderately from 67 per cent two decades earlier. Women A new agenda to continue our efforts beyond 2015 is takingand youth are more likely to find themselves in such insecure shape. The MDG campaign, with its successes as well asand poorly remunerated positions than the rest of the setbacks, provides rich experience on which this discussionemployed population. can draw, as well as confidence that further success is feasible.• Decreases in maternal mortality are far from the 2015 target • Gender equality and womens empowerment are keyThere have been important improvements in maternal healthand reduction in maternal deaths, but progress is still slow. Gender inequality persists and women continue to faceReductions in adolescent childbearing and expansion of discrimination in access to education, work and economiccontraceptive use have continued, but at a slower pace since assets, and participation in government. Violence against2000 than over the decade before. women continues to undermine efforts to reach all goals. Further progress to 2015 and beyond will largely depend on• Use of improved sources of water remains lower in success on these interrelated challenges. rural areasWhile 19 per cent of the rural population used unimproved • MDG progress shows the power of global goals and a shared purposesources of water in 2010, the rate in urban areas was only4 per cent. And since dimensions of safety, reliability and The MDGs have been a fundamental framework for globalsustainability are not reflected in the proxy indicator used development. A clear agenda, with measurable goals andto track progress towards the MDG target, it is likely that targets, and a common vision have been crucial for thisthese figures overestimate the actual number of people using success.safe water supplies. Worse, nearly half of the population There is now an expectation around the world that sooner,in developing regions—2.5 billion—still lacks access to rather than later, all these goals can and must be achieved.improved sanitation facilities. By 2015, the world will have Leaders will be held to this high standard. Sectors such asreached only 67 per cent coverage, well short of the 75 per government, business, academia and civil society, oftencent needed to achieve the MDG target. known for working at cross-purposes, are learning how to collaborate on shared aspirations. The comprehensive• Hunger remains a global challenge statistics and clear analysis in this years MDG Report give usThe most recent FAO estimates of undernourishment set all a good idea of where our efforts should be directed.the mark at 850 million living in hunger in the world in the2006/2008 period—15.5 per cent of the world population.This continuing high level reflects the lack of progress onhunger in several regions, even as income poverty hasdecreased. Progress has also been slow in reducing childundernutrition. Close to one third of children in Southern Asiawere underweight in 2010. S ha Z uKang Under-Secretary-General for Economic• The number of people living in slums continues to grow and Social AffairsDespite a reduction in the share of urban populations livingin slums, the absolute number has continued to grow froma 1990 baseline of 650 million. An estimated 863 millionpeople now live in slum conditions.
Goal 1 TarGET Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion ofpeople whose income is less than $1 a dayEradicate extremepoverty and hunger Extreme poverty falls in every region Proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1990, 2005 and 2008 (Percentage) Sub-Saharan Africa 56 52 47 Southern Asia 51 38 34 Southern Asia (excluding India) 52 29 26 South-Eastern Asia 45 19 17 Eastern Asia (China only) 60 16 13 Latin America & the Caribbean 12 9 6 Western Asia * 5 5 3 Northern Africa 5 3 2 Developing regions (excluding China) 41 31 28 Developing regions 47 27 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 2005 2008 Target * The aggregate value is based on 5 of 13 countries in the region. Note: No sufficient country data are available to calculate the aggregate values for Oceania. For the first time since the World Bank started to monitor poverty trends, both the number of people living in extreme poverty and the poverty rates fell in every developing region—including in sub-Saharan Africa, where rates are highest. In the developing regions, the proportion of
people living on less than $1.25 a day fell from 47 per cent in 1990
G o a l 1: E r a d i c a t E E x t r E m E p o v E r t y a n d h u n G E r | 7to 24 per cent in 2008. In 2008, about 110 million On the other hand, poverty remains widespread infewer people than in 2005 lived in conditions of extreme sub-Saharan Africa and in Southern Asia, despitepoverty. The number of extreme poor in the developing significant progress. The sub-Saharan African povertyregions fell from over 2 billion in 1990 to less than rate fell by almost 5 percentage points, to less than1.4 billion in 2008. 48 per cent, between 2005 and 2008—the largest drop in that region since international poverty ratesMore recent post-2008 analysis reveals that while high began to be estimated. For the first time, the absolutefood and fuel prices and deep economic recession over number of people living in extreme poverty also fell inthe course of the past four years have hurt vulnerable the region, from 395 million in 2005 to 386 million inpopulations and slowed the rate of poverty reduction 2008. This drop reversed the long-term trend of increasein some countries, global poverty rates have continued since 1981.to fall. A preliminary World Bank estimate—basedon a much smaller number of surveys than the global Further progress on the long-term goal of eradicatingupdate—indicates that the global poverty rate at $1.25 poverty is possible and likely over the coming yearsa day fell in 2010 to less than half its 1990 value. If if developing countries maintain the robust growththese results are confirmed by follow-up studies, the first rates achieved over a large part of the past decade;target of the Millennium Development Goals—cutting the and also if the conditions in which extreme povertyextreme poverty rate to half its 1990 level—will have thrives continue to be addressed: poor health andbeen achieved on a global level well ahead of the 2015 lack of education that deprive people of productivedeadline. employment; environmental resources that have been depleted or spoiled; and corruption, conflict and badBut even at the current rate of progress, estimates indicate governance that waste public resources and discouragethat about 1 billion people will still be living on less than private investment.$1.25 a day in 2015—corresponding to a global extremepoverty rate of just below 16 per cent. Four out of every Simply being able to monitor how well anti-povertyfive people living in extreme poverty will live in sub- efforts in specific localities are doing is an important toolSaharan Africa and Southern Asia. in poverty eradication. But data of sufficient quality and quantity are hard to come by, especially in small StatesSome regions have seen greater progress than others. A and in countries and territories in fragile situations. Theremarkable rate of progress was sustained in China. After need to improve the quality and reach of householdthe extreme poverty rate had dropped from 60 per cent surveys—an important data source for monitoringin 1990 to 16 per cent in 2005, the incidence fell further poverty—is urgent.by 2008 to 13 per cent. In India and in the SouthernAsian region excluding India, poverty rates fell from 51to 37 per cent and from 52 to 26 per cent, respectively,between 1990 and 2008.
8 | t h E m i l l E n n i u m d E v E l o p m E n t G o a l s r E p o r t 2 0 12 TarGET Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young peopleEastern Asia sets the pace for worldwide progress on working povertyProportion of employed people living below $1.25 a day (Percentage) and number of working poor (Millions), 2000-2011Millions Percentage800 35 Working poor, Eastern Asia Working poor, world 30 excludi ng Easter n Asia600 Working poverty rate, 25 Eastern Asia Working poverty rate, world excluding 20 Easter n Asia400 Working poverty rate, 15 world 10200 5 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Recent estimates, produced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and based on a new methodology, show that there were 456 million workers in the world living below the $1.25 a day poverty line in 2011—a reduction of 233 million since 2000 and of 38 million since 2007. The global decline is heavily influenced by the dramatic reduction in extreme poverty among workers in Eastern Asia. Due to rapid economic growth, and to poverty reduction especially in China, the number of poor workers fell by 158 million between 2000 and 2011, and by 24 million between 2007 and 2011. Worldwide, the proportion of workers living below the $1.25 poverty line declined from 26.4 per cent to 14.8 per cent between 2000 and 2011. If Eastern Asia is excluded, the decline over the same period is less dramatic—from 25.0 per cent to 17.4 per cent. Even though working poverty is decreasing, progress has slowed markedly since 2008. A projection of pre-crisis (2002-2007) trends in the incidence of working poverty shows a difference of 1.6 percentage points between what was expected and the actual 2011 figure. This
corresponds to 50 million more working poor in 2011than projected by pre-crisis trends.
G o a l 1: E r a d i c a t E E x t r E m E p o v E r t y a n d h u n G E r | 9Developing regions lag far behind the The gap in labour productivity levels between thedeveloped world in labour productivity developed and developing regions has narrowed over the past two decades, but remains substantial: output per worker in the developed regions was $64,319 in 2011,Output per worker, 1991, 2001 and 2011 compared with an average of $13,077 in developing(Thousands of constant 2005 PPP-adjusted internationaldollars) regions. This means that, adjusted for differences in pricesSub-Saharan Africa across countries, the average worker in the developing 5 world produces only one fifth as much as the average 5 worker in a developed country. 6Oceania Average productivity in the developing world, however, 5 hides substantial heterogeneity among regions. During the 5 last decade, gains were very limited in Latin America and 6 the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania, whileSouthern Asia 4 productivity in Eastern Asia more than doubled between 5 2001 and 2011. The relatively weak productivity growth 9 in developing regions outside of Asia is one key factorSouth-Eastern Asia explaining the persistence of working poverty. 6 7 10Caucasus & Central Asia 10 7 14Eastern Asia 3 6 14Northern Africa 17 18 21Latin America & the Caribbean 20 21 23Western Asia 30 35 40Developed regions 48 57 64Developing regions 6 8 130 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1991 2001 2011** Figures for 2011 are preliminary estimates.Labour productivity is a key measure of economicperformance, which can be used to gauge thelikelihood that a country can create decent employmentopportunities with fair and equitable remuneration.Sustained reductions in working poverty are consequentlydifficult to achieve without gains in labour productivity.
10 | t h E m i l l E n n i u m d E v E l o p m E n t G o a l s r E p o r t 2 0 12Progress is slow in reducing vulnerable vulnerable employment is most prevalent contributedemployment strongly to this trend. A high share of workers in vulnerable employmentProportion of own-account and contributing family workers in indicates the widespread prevalence of informal worktotal employment, 1991 and 2011 (Percentage) arrangements. Under these conditions, workers typicallyOceanialack adequatesocial protectionand suffer fromlow 74 77 pay and from difficult working conditions in which theirSouthern Asia fundamental rights may be violated or undermined. 81 76Sub-Saharan Africa Women are far more likely than men to 82 be engaged in vulnerable employment 76Southern Asia (excluding India)Proportion of own-account andcontributing family workers 73 in total employment, women, men, 2011 (Percentage) 68South-Eastern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 85 68 69 61 OceaniaEastern Asia 84 66 71 49 Southern AsiaCaucasus & Central Asia 83 46 74 42 South-Eastern AsiaLatin America & the Caribbean 66 35 58 32 Eastern AsiaNorthern Africa 53 37 46 30 Northern AfricaEastern Asia (excluding China) 44 37 26 30 Caucasus & Central AsiaWestern Asia 43 43 41 26 Western AsiaDeveloped regions 41 11 22 10 Latin America & the CaribbeanDeveloping regions 32 67 32 58 Developed regions0 20 40 60 80 100 9 1991 2011* 11
* Figures for 2011 are preliminary estimates. Developing regions 62Vulnerable employment—defined as the sum of the 56percentages of unpaid family workers and own-account 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90workers in total employment—accounted for an estimated Women Men58 per cent of all employment in the developing regions in2011. The gap between womens and mens vulnerable employment is widest in Northern Africa—where inThe proportion of workers in employment defined as 2011, 44 per cent of women were in jobs classified asvulnerable slowly decreased between 1991 and 2011. vulnerable, compared with 26 per cent of men—and inThis moderate decline in proportion was not sufficientto prevent the absolute number of workers in vulnerable Western Asia, where the rates were 41 and 22 per cent,employment from increasing by 136 million since 2000, respectively. The share of vulnerable employment acrossbringing the global number to 1.52 billion. Continuous genders was highest in sub-Saharan Africa, reaching 85expansion of the labour force in countries where per cent for women and 69 per cent for men.
G o a l 1: E r a d i c a t E E x t r E m E p o v E r t y a n d h u n G E r | 11Youth tend to find themselves in low- Many young people start their working life by supportingopportunity family based work situations informal family businesses or farms. Data for a sample of 20 developing economies for which breakdowns by age and status in employment are available show that theShare of contributing family workers in total employment, share of contributing family workers among all employedyouth and adults, selected countries, 2003/2006 (Percentage) young people exceeded the corresponding share for adultMadagascar 98 workers in all countries. 79Burkina Faso The school-to-work transition may also include spells 86 of unemployment or periods of temporary or casual 44 employment, before reaching a final station that is likely toBhutan 78 be own-account work. 61Uganda 65 TarGET 21 Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion ofTogo 64 people who suffer from hunger 13Mali 28 62 The numbers of malnourished haveMozambique stabilized since 1990 61 28Cambodia Number and proportion of people in the developing regions who 60 are undernourished 1990-92, 1995-97, 2000-02 and 2006-08 26Peru Millions Percentage 45 1,400 25 18Pakistan 39 15 1,200 19.8India 20 35 16 1,000 16.8 16.5Nicaragua 15.5 30 15 6 800Guatemala 848 836 850 25 791 9 600Philippines 10 22 7 400Colombia 14 3 5Congo 200 13 2Mexico 0 0 12 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2006-08 4 Number of undernourished peopleGabon Percentage of undernourished people 113Niger The most recent estimates of undernourishment by the 9 Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations 1Armenia (FAO) were published in 2011 for the 2006-2008 period. 2 They set the mark at 850 million, which corresponds to 1 15.5 per cent of the world population. This was the first0 20 40 60 80 100 assessment based on hard data on food production and Youth Adults consumption referring to 2008, and capturing the actual impact of the food price crisis of 2007-2008 and of the financial crisis of 2008.
12 | t h E m i l l E n n i u m d E v E l o p m E n t G o a l s r E p o r t 2 0 12The situation at the global level was not as stark as might of hunger and the implementation of appropriate policieshave been expected, and was originally projected, thanks and measures.to economic growth rates that remained high in manydeveloping countries at least through 2008. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa were the hardest hit by the food and financialProgress in relieving food deprivation criseshas slowed or stalled in many regions Number of undernourished people, 2003-2008 (Millions)Proportion of people who are undernourished, 1990-92,2000-2002, 2006-08 (Percentage) AsiaSub-Saharan Africa 600 31 579 579 578 29 27 567Southern Asia (excluding India) 557 26 556 23 22 550Southern Asia 22 21 20South-Eastern Asia 24 17 500 14 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Eastern Asia (excluding China) 8 Sub Saharan Africa 13 240 13 231Eastern Asia 18 10 220 10Latin America & the Caribbean 12 214 10 212 213 8 211 210Western Asia 6 8 200 7Northern Africa <5 <5 <5 180Developing regions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 17 The FAO assessment reveals that small countries, heavily 15 dependent on food imports, were deeply affected by0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 skyrocketing food prices-especially those in sub-Saharan 1990-1992 2000-2002 2006-2008 Africa. In contrast, some large countries in Asia were able to insulate their markets through restrictive trade policiesThe prevalence of hunger remains uncomfortably high in and to protect consumers with social safety nets. As asub-Saharan Africa and in Southern Asia outside of India. result, while the number of undernourished increasedAnd, despite recorded reductions in income poverty, there sharply in sub-Saharan Africa, it remained constant in Asia.are no signs of improvement in undernourishment rates inEastern Asia since 2000. The disparity between fallingpoverty rates and steady levels of undernourishment callsfor improved understanding of the dimensions and causes
G o a l 1: E r a d i c a t E E x t r E m E p o v E r t y a n d h u n G E r | 13 In the developing regions, the proportion of children under Improved methodology will help to better age five who are underweight declined from 29 per cent understand the state of food insecurity in in 1990 to 18 per cent in 2010. Progress was recorded the world in all regions where comparable data are available, but is insufficient to reach the global target by 2015. Continued New estimates of hunger prevalence are being efforts are needed to reduce disparities related to urban- produced based on a larger number of household rural differences and poverty, among other factors. expenditure surveys and a new methodology developed by FAO. The new figures will provide an An equally important indicator of overall child health assessment for the years 2009-2011 and preliminary and nutritional status is stunting, defined as low height estimates for 2012. The improved methodology should for age. It is a condition, however, which often goes better capture changes in the degree of inequality unrecognized in the developing world. More common in food access, as well as provide more accurate than being underweight, stunting also more accurately estimates of food stocks, non-food uses and waste. reflects nutritional deficiencies and illnesses that occur during the early-life period and will hamper growth and development. Although the prevalence of stunting fellNearly one in five children under age five from an estimated 44 per cent in 1990 to 29 per centin the developing world is underweight in 2010, millions of children remain at risk for diminished cognitive and physical development resulting from long- term undernutrition.Proportion of children under age five who are moderatelyor severely underweight, 1990 and 2010 (Percentage) Despite clear evidence of the disastrous consequencesSouthern Asia of childhood nutritional deprivation in the short and long 51 32 terms, nutritional health remains a low priority. It is time forSub-Saharan Africa nutrition to be placed higher on the development agenda. 29 22 A number of simple, cost-effective measures to reduceSouth-Eastern Asia undernutrition in the critical period from conception to two 31 years after birth are available. These measures include 17 improved maternal nutrition and care, breastfeeding withinNorthern Africa 10 one hour of birth, exclusive breastfeeding for the first six 6 months of life, and timely, adequate, safe and appropriateWestern Asia complementary feeding and micronutrient intake in the 15 following 18 months. Urgent, accelerated and concerted 5 actions are needed to deliver and scale up suchCaucasus & Central Asia 11 interventions so as to extend the gains made thus far. 4Eastern Asia 15 3Latin America & Caribbean 83Developing regions 29 180 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 2010 Target Range of estimatesNote: Prevalence estimates are calculated according to the WHO ChildGrowth Standards. The trend analysis presented above is based on amultilevel regression model, described in de Onis et al., Methodology forEstimating Regional and Global Trends of Child Malnutrition,InternationalJournal of Epidemiology, vol. 33, pp. 1260-1270, using all availabletrend data points from 1985 to 2010.Error bars represent 95 per cent confidence intervals of the estimatedregional prevalence. Owing to differences in source data, internationalstandard reference population and estimation methodology, theseprevalence estimates may not be comparable to the averages publishedin previous editions of this report.
14 | t h E m i l l E n n i u m d E v E l o p m E n t G o a l s r E p o r t 2 0 12Differences in undernutrition found Poverty is a major determinant ofbetween rural and urban children undernutrution in children in all regionsare largest in Latin America and theCaribbean Proportion of under-five children who are underweight, developing regions, by wealth quintile, 2006/2010 (Percentage)Proportion of under-five children who are underweight,60developing regions, urban and rural areas, 2006/2010 Poorest 20%(Percentage) Wealthiest 20% 5550 50 Urban45 Rural 45 4040 3835 30 28 3330 32 20 2025 1420 22 10 11 7 715 17 4 4 15 010 Northern Caucasus & Sub-Saharan Southern Developing Africa Central Asia Africa Asia regions* 8 5 * Excluding China. 6 6 4 5 5 4 3 Note: These regional averages are based on a subset of 65 countries 0 with wealth quintile information covering 54 per cent of the 20 per cent poorest Western Northern Caucasus Latin Sub- Southern Developing population and 20 per cent richest population in the developing regions (It is Asia Africa & America Saharan Asia regions* assumed that an equal distribution for population coverage for richest and Central & the Africa poorest 20 per cent, which may or may not hold true). Data for Eastern Asia Asia Caribbean are not available. * Excluding China. Note: Regional averages are based on a subset of 70 countries with residence Poorer children are almost three times as likely to be area information covering 62 per cent of the rural populationand 53 per cent of the urban population in the developing region. Data for Eastern Asia underweight as are children in the wealthiest 20 per cent are not available. of the households. The disparity is greatest in Southern Asia, where the prevalence of underweight children in theIn the developing regions as a whole, children living in poorest quintile of households is 2.8 times that of childrenrural areas are almost twice as likely to be underweight from the richest 20 per cent.than children in urban households. The largest gap is inLatin America and the Caribbean. In that region, eight percent of children are underweight in rural areas—more thantwice the rate in cities.
G o a l 1: E r a d i c a t E E x t r E m E p o v E r t y a n d h u n G E r | 15The number of refugees and of the displaced remains high, even with an upturn inrepatriation in 2011Number of refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced persons, 2000-2011 (Millions)60 Asylum seekers Refugees50 Internally displaced persons 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.740 0.8 15.9 16.0 14.6 13.7 13.8 13.0 14.3 16.0 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.23020 21.2 25.0 25.0 24.6 25.3 23.7 24.4 26.0 26.0 27.1 27.5 26.410 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Armed conflict and violence uprooted more than 4 million At the end of 2011, an estimated 42.5 million peoplepeople in 2011, either inside or outside the borders of worldwide were living in a place to which they had beentheir countries. This is the highest number in many years. forcibly displaced due to conflict or persecution. Of these,Post-election violence in Côte dIvoire, "Arab Spring" 15.2 million were refugees, including 10.4 million whouprisings and a deteriorating situation in Somalia were fall under the responsibility of the UNHCR and 4.8 millionall contributing factors, in particular during the first half of Palestinian refugees registered with the United Nations2011. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Some 26.4 million people wereThe number of refugees returning home voluntarily had uprooted by violence and persecution but remain withinfallen steadily since 2004. With the situation improving the borders of their own countries. Some 900,000 werein some countries, this trend was reversed in 2011, with asylum seekers.more than half a million refugees repatriating during theyear. This number is more than double the 2010 total of On average, four out of five refugees are hosted by197,600, and constitutes the highest repatriation flow developing countries. The largest refugee populationssince the return of 604,000 refugees in 2008. covered under the mandate of the UNHCR at the end of 2011 continued to be Afghans (2.7 million) and Iraqis (1.4But 2011 also produced the third lowest number of million). Together, they account for four out of ten of allvoluntarily repatriated refugees in a decade. Globally, refugees under the UNHCR mandate.more than 9.1 million refugees have returned homeover the past 10 years, three quarters of them with theassistance of the United Nations High Commissioner forRefugees (UNHCR).
Goal 2 TArGeT Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schoolingAchieve universalprimary education Progress on primary school enrolment has slowed since 2004, even as countries with the toughest challenges have made large strides Adjusted net enrolment rate in primary education,* 1999, 2004 and 2010 (Percentage) Sub-Saharan Africa 58 68 76 Western Asia 84 89 92 Southern Asia 77 89 93 Caucasus & Central Asia 94 94.5 93.9 Latin America & the Caribbean 94 95 95 South-Eastern Asia 92 94 95 Northern Africa 88 95 96 Eastern Asia 96 97.3 96.6 Developed regions 97 97 97 Developing regions 82 88 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1999 2004 2010 * Defined as the number of pupils of the official school age for primary education enrolled either in primary or secondary school, expressed as a percentage of the total population in that age group. Note: Data for Oceania are not available.
G o a l 2 : a c h i e v e u n i v e r s a l p r i m a r y e d u c at i o n | 17In the developing regions, the net enrolment rate for More than half of all out-of-schoolchildren of primary school age rose from 82 to 90 per children are in sub-Saharan Africacent between 1999 and 2010. However, a closer lookat the data reveals that nearly all of this growth occurredbetween 1999 and 2004, and that progress in reducing Primary school age children out of school, 1999-2010 (Millions)the number of out-of-school children slowed considerably 120after 2004.At the same time, many of the countries facing the 100greatest challenges have recorded significant progresstowards universal primary education. Enrolment rates of 80children of primary school age increased markedly in 60sub-Saharan Africa, from 58 to 76 per cent between1999 and 2010. Total enrolment of children of primary 40school age in the region rose by more than two thirds,with 43 million more enrolled. Not only did countries 20succeed in reducing their relatively high out-of-schoolrates, they also improved their enrolment rates even as 0the primary school age population was growing by more 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010than one quarter between 1999 and 2010 (28 per cent, Rest of the world Southern Asia Sub-Saharan Africaor 31 million children).Apart from in sub-Saharan Africa, more than 90 per cent In 2010, 61 million children of primary school age wereof children of primary school age were enrolled either in out of school. More than half of them (33 million) were inprimary or secondary schools in 2010. In four developing sub-Saharan Africa and a further one fifth (13 million) inregions (Northern Africa, Eastern Asia, Latin America and Southern Asia. In relative terms, 24 per cent of children ofthe Caribbean and South-Eastern Asia), at least 95 per primary school age in sub-Saharan Africa and 7 per centcent of primary-age children were in school. in Southern Asia were not in school.
18 | t h e m i l l e n n i u m d e v e l o p m e n t G o a l s r e p o r t 2 0 12Globally, there has been progress in reducing girls Young adolescents from poor andexclusion from primary education, with the female share rural households are more likely to beof out-of-school children in developing countries dropping out of schoolfrom 58 to 53 per cent between 1999 and 2010. Butregional gender disparities continue to detract from effortsto achieve universal primary education. In Southern Asia, Percentage of lower secondary-age children out of schoolWestern Asia and Northern Africa, girls accounted for by sex, household wealth and location, 55 countries, 2005/201055, 65 and 79 per cent, respectively, of the total share of 40out-of-school children. 35 36Universal primary education would be a hollowachievement if the focus were simply on enrolment rather 30 31than on the completion of primary education. In 2010, the 29global primary completion rate (measured by the gross 25 27intake ratio to the last grade of primary education) reached 24 2390 per cent, compared with 81 per cent in 1999. 23Regional values ranged from 70 per cent in sub-Saharan 20 21Africa to almost 100 per cent in Latin America and the 1918Caribbean and also in the Caucasus and Central Asia. 15 16 14 14Girls and boys have similar chances of completing 10primary education in all regions except for sub-Saharan 10Africa and Western Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, boys 5are more likely than girls to complete primary educationin 25 out of 43 countries with available data. In only 10 0 Poorest Second Middle Fourth Richest Urban Ruralof these countries do both groups have equal chances 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%of finishing primary school. But notably, in 8 countries Girls Boysin sub-Saharan Africa more girls than boys are currentlycompleting primary education, although these disparities Analysis of household survey data collected betweentend to be less extreme than those tilted against girls. 2005 and 2010 in 55 developing countries reveals that exclusion from education occurs most often among children from disadvantaged groups. Poverty emergesSuccess at the primary level places as a strong determinant of school exclusion for lowerincreased demands on secondary schools secondary-age youth. Young adolescents from the poorest households are three times as likely to be outWith more children completing primary education, of school as those from the richest households. Girls ofthe demand for secondary education is growing. This lower secondary-age are more likely to be out of schoolincreased demand poses a serious challenge for countries than boys, regardless of the wealth or location of thewith limited resources. In sub-Saharan Africa, about one household. Nevertheless, the greatest disparities arequarter of the children who complete primary school do found between the richest and poorest households, andnot continue on to secondary education. The regional between urban and rural areas.average, however, hides substantial differences betweencountries. The transition rate from primary to secondaryeducation ranges from around 40 per cent in Angola,Mauritania and the United Republic of Tanzania to 98 percent in Seychelles and Swaziland.Young people who do not pursue their education jointhe group of adolescents of lower-secondary age whoare not enrolled in either primary or secondary school. In2010, there were 71 million young adolescents (typicallyaged 12-15 years) out of school around the world. Ofthese, around 48 million lived in countries where lower-secondary schooling is officially recognized as part of thecompulsory education system.
G o a l 2 : a c h i e v e u n i v e r s a l p r i m a r y e d u c at i o n | 19Illiteracy still holds back more than Globally, the youth literacy rate reached 90 per cent in120 million young people 2010, an increase of 6 percentage points since 1990. Over the last two decades, the greatest progress hasOut-of-school youth tend to have limited opportunities to been achieved in Southern Asia, where youth literacy rosedevelop or maintain literacy skills, restricting their options from 60 to 81 per cent, and in Northern Africa, where itin life and compounding the disadvantages they face increased from 68 to 88 per cent.later on. Gender gaps in youth literacy rates are also narrowing.In 2010, there were still 122 million people between 15 Globally, there were 95 literate young women for everyand 24 years of age—74 million women and 48 million 100 young men in 2010, compared with 90 women inmen—who were unable to read and write a short, simple 1990. At the regional level, this gap is most notable instatement about their everyday life. Southern Asia, where there were only 86 literate women for every 100 literate men in the age group 15-24 yearsThe great majority of these young adults live in Southern in 2010.Asia (62 million) and sub-Saharan Africa (45 million). Inrelative terms, literacy rates among the youth populationare lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (72 per cent) andOceania (76 per cent).
Goal 3 TarGeT: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of educationPromote gender no later than 2015equality and Parity is achieved in developing world primaryempowerwomen schools, even though some regions lag behind Gender parity index for gross enrolment ratios in primary, secondary and tertiary education (Girls school enrolement ratio in relation to boys enrolment ratio), 1999 and 2010 (Girls per 100 boys) Primary education Western Asia 85 93 Sub-Saharan Africa 85 93 Northern Africa 90 95 Latin America & the Caribbean 97 97 Southern Asia 83 98 Caucasus & Central Asia 99 98 South-Eastern Asia 96 99 Eastern Asia 101 103 Oceania* 90 Developed regions 100 99 Developing regions 91 97 Secondary education Sub-Saharan Africa 83 82 Southern Asia 75 91 Western Asia 74 91 Caucasus & Central Asia 98 97 Northern Africa 92 98 Eastern Asia 93 104 South-Eastern Asia 96 104 Latin America & the Caribbean 107 108 Oceania* 89 Developed regions 101 99 Developing regions 88 96 Tertiary education Sub-Saharan Africa 67 63 Southern Asia 65 76 Western Asia 75 89 Eastern Asia 67 105 Northern Africa 74 106 Caucasus & Central Asia 90 106 South-Eastern Asia 100 107 Latin America & the Caribbean 117 128 Oceania* 83 Developed regions 120 130 Developing regions 83 98 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1999 2010 Target = Gender parity index between 97 and 103 * Data for 2010 are not available. Achieving parity in education is an important step toward equal opportunity for men and women in the social, political and economic domains. Driven by national and international efforts and the MDG