The Role of Agriculture in Hunger
and Poverty Reduction
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research I...
IFPRI, September 2010
Key messages
 Global food security is under stress
 Agricultural growth is crucial for reducing
hu...
IFPRI, September 2010
The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calcu...
IFPRI, September 2010
Pressures on food security and agriculture
 Population growth and demographic changes
 Competition...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Source: M. Rosegrant 2009
NCAR A2a
E.g. Climate change pressure on agriculture
Climate ch...
IFPRI, September 2010
Agriculture creates wealth and reduces
poverty and hunger by:
 Raising farm incomes, esp. for small...
IFPRI, September 2010
Agric-led growth is more pro-poor than
non-agric-led growth
Agric-led growth
scenario
Non-agric-led
...
IFPRI, September 2010
The composition of agric. growth is
important
Calorie-growth
elasticity
Poverty-growth
elasticity
Ma...
IFPRI, September 2010
Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand
Returns to agriculture or rural income
(local cu...
IFPRI, September 2010
Big food security successes are driven by
agric. innovation
 Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)
 Chi...
IFPRI, September 2010
Research-based innovations can:
 Sustainably increase yields
 Enhance the nutritional value of foo...
IFPRI, September 2010
Why CGIAR reform?
 With rapid global changes, past CGIAR successes
are not enough to meet future ch...
IFPRI, September 2010
The CGIAR is well positioned to
contribute to:
 Global efforts to foster food production and
food a...
IFPRI, September 2010
New CGIAR structure
3 pillars:
• CGIAR Fund
• Consortium
• Centers
4 bridging mechanisms:
• Strategy...
IFPRI, September 2010
Consortium research programs (CRPs)
1. Integrated agricultural systems for the poor
2. Policies, ins...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Increasing agricultural R&D:
Allocation for poverty minimization
R&D allocation
(mil. 200...
IFPRI, September 2010
Role of IFPRI’s research
 Policy solutions for food security, agriculture, rural
development, and i...
IFPRI, September 2010
The conference will:
 bring together information on how to strengthen
linkages among agriculture, n...
Improving Policymaking Capacity in
Agriculture and Food Security at the
Country Level
Margaret McMillan
Division Director
...
Country
Strategy
Support
Programs
(CSSPs)
•Research
•Capacity Building
•Impact Evaluation
IFPRI, September 2010
CSSP Framework
Country
Strategy
Support
Program
•Program Leader
(Sr. Research Fellow)
•Postdoctoral ...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Offices, CSSPs, and future CSSPs
around the world
CSSPs
Upcoming CSSPs
IFPRI offices
Isla...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Innovative policy-relevant research
IFPRI, September 2010
Capacity building
IFPRI, September 2010
Cross-regional mutual learning
CAADP and Its Role in Promoting
Agricultural Development in Africa
Ousmane Badiane
Director for Africa
International Food ...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
 Carry out comprehensive stocktaking
 Develop strategy and outcome scenario
 Create de...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
57.6
63.4
37.2
40.7
34.9
38.5
42.4
46.6
30.9
34.0
National Rural
Current PSTA II Vision- ...
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
UNDER PLANS growth MDG15 growth MDG20 growth
Growth outcomes under invest...
IFPRI, September 2010
IFPRI, September 2010
Building analytical capacities
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The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

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DFID, London, September 27, 2010
Shenggen Fan, with Margaret McMillan and Ousmane Badiane

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The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

  1. 1. The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction Shenggen Fan Director General International Food Policy Research Institute DFID, London, September 27, 2010
  2. 2. IFPRI, September 2010 Key messages  Global food security is under stress  Agricultural growth is crucial for reducing hunger and poverty  Agricultural research is key  The CGIAR and IFPRI are well-positioned to effectively address global challenges
  3. 3. IFPRI, September 2010 The goal of halving hunger is off-track Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calculations Number of hungry people, 1990-2015 946 584
  4. 4. IFPRI, September 2010 Pressures on food security and agriculture  Population growth and demographic changes  Competition for land and water  Climate change  Energy and biofuels  Food price volatility, etc.
  5. 5. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 Source: M. Rosegrant 2009 NCAR A2a E.g. Climate change pressure on agriculture Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050 Global production = -16%
  6. 6. IFPRI, September 2010 Agriculture creates wealth and reduces poverty and hunger by:  Raising farm incomes, esp. for smallholders  Creating farm employment  Stimulating the rural nonfarm economy through production and consumption linkages  Pushing down the prices of staple foods to the benefit of poor net food buyers Source: OECD 2006
  7. 7. IFPRI, September 2010 Agric-led growth is more pro-poor than non-agric-led growth Agric-led growth scenario Non-agric-led growth scenario Ethiopia (2003-15) -1.7 -0.7 Ghana (2003-15) -1.8 -1.3 Kenya (2003-15) -1.3 -0.6 Rwanda (2003-15) -1.4 -0.8 Uganda (1999-2015) -1.6 -1.1 Zambia (2001-15) -0.6 -0.4 Source: Diao et al. 2010 Poverty-growth elasticities
  8. 8. IFPRI, September 2010 The composition of agric. growth is important Calorie-growth elasticity Poverty-growth elasticity Maize -1.9 -1.5 Sorghum & millet -1.5 -1.5 Pulses & oilseeds -1.8 -1.4 Roots -1.1 -1.5 Horticulture -1.0 -1.4 Livestock -0.7 -1.3 Export crops -0.8 -1.4 Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010 Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07)
  9. 9. IFPRI, September 2010 Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand Returns to agriculture or rural income (local currency/local currency spending) Agric. R&D 16.8 12.4 12.5 0.14 6.8 13.5 12.6 Education -0.2 7.2 9.0 0.56 2.2 1.4 2.1 Health 1.3 0.9 n.e. -0.03 n.e. 0.8 n.e. Roads 8.8 2.7 9.1 4.22 1.7 5.3 0.9 Ranking in returns to poverty reduction Agric. R&D n.e. 1 2 n.e. 2 2 1 Education n.e. 3 1 n.e. 1 3 3 Health n.e. 4 n.e. n.e. n.e. 4 n.e. Roads n.e. 2 3 n.e. 3 1 2 Investment in agric. R&D has high returns Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated
  10. 10. IFPRI, September 2010 Big food security successes are driven by agric. innovation  Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)  China: High-yielding hybrid rice varieties (1977-now)  East and Southern Africa: Breeding improved maize varieties (1965 to 1990)  India: Dryland millet and sorghum varieties (mid-1960s-now)  Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)  Philippines: Breeding improved tilapia (1988 to 1997) Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009
  11. 11. IFPRI, September 2010 Research-based innovations can:  Sustainably increase yields  Enhance the nutritional value of food crops  Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks Source: FBAE 2009 Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS
  12. 12. IFPRI, September 2010 Why CGIAR reform?  With rapid global changes, past CGIAR successes are not enough to meet future challenges  CGIAR’s new mission goes beyond productivity and technology to include hunger/nutrition, poverty, gender, and natural resource management  Increased quantity and quality of investment in the CGIAR is needed Reform will help harmonize and maximize funding for priority research areas, simplify structures, and reduce transaction costs
  13. 13. IFPRI, September 2010 The CGIAR is well positioned to contribute to:  Global efforts to foster food production and food access  Sustainable management of natural resources and the environment  Reduced poverty and hunger in both rural and urban areas
  14. 14. IFPRI, September 2010 New CGIAR structure 3 pillars: • CGIAR Fund • Consortium • Centers 4 bridging mechanisms: • Strategy and Results Framework • Performance Agreements for Consortium research programs • Monitoring and Evaluation Framework • Independent Science and Partnership Council
  15. 15. IFPRI, September 2010 Consortium research programs (CRPs) 1. Integrated agricultural systems for the poor 2. Policies, institutions, and markets for the poor 3. Sustainable production systems for food security 4. Agriculture for improved nutrition and health 5. Durable solutions to water scarcity and land and ecosystem degradation 6. Forests and trees 7. Climate change and agriculture
  16. 16. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 Increasing agricultural R&D: Allocation for poverty minimization R&D allocation (mil. 2005 $)  in # of poor (mil.) 2008-20202008 2020 SSA 772 3,565 -170.0 S Asia 908 3,856 -177.2 E & SE Asia 1,956 3,266 -65.1 N Africa & W Asia 546 722 -1.3 L America 957 1,038 -0.8 TOTAL 5,139 12,446 -414 Source: Nin Pratt and Fan 2009
  17. 17. IFPRI, September 2010 Role of IFPRI’s research  Policy solutions for food security, agriculture, rural development, and improved resource allocation  Improved policy environment for technological developments of other CGIAR centers  IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural Incomes for the Poor  IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for Improved Health and Nutrition
  18. 18. IFPRI, September 2010 The conference will:  bring together information on how to strengthen linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health  identify “best practices” in policies and programs  further knowledge and build consensus on priorities for appropriate action  facilitate networks amongst stakeholders 18
  19. 19. Improving Policymaking Capacity in Agriculture and Food Security at the Country Level Margaret McMillan Division Director Development Strategy and Governance Division International Food Policy Research Institute DFID, London, September 27, 2010
  20. 20. Country Strategy Support Programs (CSSPs) •Research •Capacity Building •Impact Evaluation
  21. 21. IFPRI, September 2010 CSSP Framework Country Strategy Support Program •Program Leader (Sr. Research Fellow) •Postdoctoral Fellows •RAs •Local support •DC-based support Ministries •Timely, policy relevant research results •Improved access to information and data •Policy dialogue Local think tanks, national research institutes •Capacity building • Collaboration •Sharing lessons across countries Universities •Collaboration •Sharing lessons across countries Civil society •Farmers •Local Businesses •NGOs
  22. 22. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 Offices, CSSPs, and future CSSPs around the world CSSPs Upcoming CSSPs IFPRI offices Islamabad Dhaka Kinshasa Kathmandu Phnom Penh Potential CSSPs Sao Paulo Buenos Aires
  23. 23. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 Innovative policy-relevant research
  24. 24. IFPRI, September 2010 Capacity building
  25. 25. IFPRI, September 2010 Cross-regional mutual learning
  26. 26. CAADP and Its Role in Promoting Agricultural Development in Africa Ousmane Badiane Director for Africa International Food Policy Research Institute DFID, London, September 27, 2010
  27. 27. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010  Carry out comprehensive stocktaking  Develop strategy and outcome scenario  Create detailed baselines  Develop guidelines for best practices  Create knowledge platform  Build capacities for replicability Laying the foundations for evidence-based planning, review and learning
  28. 28. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 57.6 63.4 37.2 40.7 34.9 38.5 42.4 46.6 30.9 34.0 National Rural Current PSTA II Vision- 2020 PSTA I/CAADP MDG1-2015 Poverty outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda
  29. 29. Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010 0 5 10 15 20 25 UNDER PLANS growth MDG15 growth MDG20 growth Growth outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda
  30. 30. IFPRI, September 2010
  31. 31. IFPRI, September 2010 Building analytical capacities

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