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Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

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European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010

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Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

  1. 1. Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010<br />
  2. 2. Key messages<br /><ul><li>Achieving the MDG1 goal of cutting hunger is not on track
  3. 3. Emerging trends present further challenges for the future
  4. 4. MDG1 is still achievable and there have been successes
  5. 5. But a new agenda must be adopted </li></li></ul><li>The number of hungry needs to fall by 73 mil. per year to meet MDG1<br />
  6. 6. 29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)<br />GHI components:<br /><ul><li>Proportion of undernourished
  7. 7. Prevalence of underweight in children
  8. 8. Under-five mortality rate</li></ul>Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.<br />
  9. 9. Domestic prices remain high in some countries <br />Rice prices, $US/ton<br />Source: FAO 2010.<br />
  10. 10. Non-food factors continue to influence food prices<br />Energy: Oil prices have reached a 19-month high; Biofuel production is still growing, even though at a slower pace<br />Trade: Some export restrictions have been extended to 2010<br />Finance: Credit availability not yet restored to its pre-crisis level<br />
  11. 11. Emerging trends<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Climate change<br />
  12. 12. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 billion by 2050<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Most growth to come from developing countries<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
  13. 13. Natural resource constraints are high<br />Projected water scarcity in 2025<br />Source: IWMI 2000.<br />
  14. 14. Climate change pressure on food production systems<br />Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050<br />NCAR A2a<br />Global production = -16%<br />Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.<br />
  15. 15. Climate change impact: Child malnutrition<br />Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009..<br />
  16. 16. Successes show that rapid food secuirty improvement is possible<br />Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)<br />China: land reform (1978-84); higher rice yields (1977-now)<br />India: seed marketing (mid-1960s-now), dairy sector development (1970-96)<br />Kenya: unlocking fertilizer and maize markets (1990-2007)<br />Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)<br />Vietnam: Exiting from collective agriculture (1988-93)<br />Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009.<br />
  17. 17. New agenda for food security needed<br />Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity<br />Keep trade open<br />Promote productive social protection<br />Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation<br />Improve institutions and capacities<br />
  18. 18. 4.0<br />Actual ag spending in 2004, billion USD <br />3.5<br />Annual agspending required, billion USD (2008-15) <br />3.0<br />2.5<br />2.0<br />1.5<br />1.0<br />0.5<br />1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity<br />Source: Fan and Johnson (2009).<br />Increase agric. spending, improve access to inputs and services, secure land rights, invest in rural infrastructure <br />
  19. 19. Ag + non-ag growth = highest poverty reduction<br />Poverty simulations, Rwanda<br />Source: Diao et al. 2008.<br />
  20. 20. 2. Keep trade open<br />Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and refrain from imposing new ones<br />to increase efficiency<br />to stabilize prices<br />Complete the Doha Round <br />if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound level): <br />11.5% loss of developing country exports <br />US$353 billion loss in world welfare<br />Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high<br />Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.<br />
  21. 21. 3. Promote productive social protection<br />Scale up safety nets to: <br />Secure and smooth food consumption<br />Enable saving and investment <br />Build and diversify assets<br />Types of interventions e.g.:<br />Conditional cash/food transfers<br />Maternal and child health/nutrition programs<br />Public works<br />Insurance for the poor<br />Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources<br />Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.<br />
  22. 22. Innovative insurance for poor farmers and consumers<br />Agriculture: index-based weather insurance for crops and livestock <br />Health: community-based health insurance<br />Effective delivery channels<br />Agricultural cooperatives to deliver weather insurance products<br />Microfinance institutions to provide microinsurance<br />Source: Vargas Hill and Torero 2009.<br />
  23. 23. 4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation<br />Annual expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$)<br />Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.<br />
  24. 24. 5. Improve institutions and capacities<br />Build up existing institutions and improve evidence-based policy making<br />Increase gradual implementation after careful experimentation as in Asian reform process (esp. China) <br />Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation <br />Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training<br />
  25. 25. Building capacity for policy analysis<br />Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)<br />Africa-wide network <br />Supports implementation of CAADP and other regional initiatives<br />Country SAKSS<br />Provides technical support for CAADP roundtable process<br />Monitor and evaluate performance of agricultural sector against CAADP goals<br />
  26. 26. Rapid hunger reduction is achievable with effective country-led and country-owned actions<br />

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