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world trade investment pattern

  1. 1. World Trade Investment Pattern Presented by : Richa priyadarshini (65) Rohan Keshri (66) Varun Sikri (101)
  2. 2. International trade • • 2 International trade is exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories. In most countries, it represents a significant share of gross domestic product (GDP). While international trade has been present throughout much of history (see Silk Road, Amber Road), its economic, social, and political importance has been on the rise in recent centuries. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  3. 3. 3 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  4. 4. Importance of International Trade • • • 4 Without international trade, nations would be limited to the goods and services produced within their own borders. International trade is the backbone of our modern, commercial world, as producers in various nations try to profit from an expanded market, rather than be limited to selling within their own borders. There are many reasons that trade across national borders occurs, including lower production costs in one region versus another, specialized industries, lack or surplus of natural resources and consumer tastes. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  5. 5. List of Countries by Export and List of contries by Import Rank International Trade of Goods (Billions of USD) - World 36,534.0 - European Union 4,468.6 1 United States 3,882.4 2 China 3,866.9 3 Germany 2,575.7 4 Japan 1,684.4 5 Netherlands 1,247.4 6 France 1,243.9 7 United Kingdom 1,149.4 8 South Korea 1,067.5 9 Italy 986.9 10 Hong Kong 947.9 11 Canada 917.3 12 Belgium 882.0 13 Russia 864.7 14 Singapore 788.1 15 India 779.4 16 Mexico 751.4 17 Spain 624.9 18 Taiwan 571.8 19 5 Country Saudi Arabia 529.8 20 Australia 518.2 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  6. 6. Top traded Commodities(exports) Rank Value in US $(000) 1 Mineral fuels,oils, distilation products,etc $2,183,079,941 2 Electrical, electronic equipment $1,833,534,414 3 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boliler,etc. $1,763,371,813 4 Vehicles other than railway, tramway $1,076,830,856 5 Plastics and articles $470,226,676 6 Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc. apparatus $465,101,525 7 Pharmaceutical products $443,596,577 8 Iron and Steel $379,113,147 9 Organic chemicals $377,462,088 10 6 Commodity Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc $348,155,369 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  7. 7. Risks in international trade • • • • • • • • 7 Buyer insolvency (purchaser cannot pay); Non-acceptance (buyer rejects goods as different from the agreed upon specifications); Credit risk (allowing the buyer to take possession of goods prior to payment); Regulatory risk (e.g., a change in rules that prevents the transaction); Intervention (governmental action to prevent a transaction being completed); Political risk (change in leadership interfering with transactions or prices); and War and other uncontrollable events. In addition, international trade also faces the risk of unfavorable exchange rate movements Global Business management M2- World Trade
  8. 8. Restrictions of Imports • • • Many countries including the United States have passed antidumping laws which help domestic industries by restricting foreign products being sold below the cost of production, or at prices lower than those in the home market. Imports are also restricted by nontariff barriers, such as buy-domestic campaigns. It is difficult to remove these barriers. Imports can also be reduced by tightening market access and entry of foreign products through involved procedures and inspections. 8
  9. 9. Effects of Import Restriction • • • Import control may mean that the most efficient sources of supply are not available, resulting in second-best products or higher costs for restricted supplies. Import control may result in the downstream change in the composition of imports. Due to inefficiency, import controls may cause a lag in technological advancements. 9
  10. 10. Restrictions of Exports Nations control their exports for reasons of short supply, national security and foreign policy purposes, or the desire to retain capital. • National security controls are placed on weapons and high-technology exports. • Although restriction of exports is a valuable international relations tool, it may give a country’s firms the reputation of being unreliable suppliers and may divert orders to firms of other nations. • 10
  11. 11. Export Promotion • • Export promotion is designed to help firms enter and maintain their position in international markets and to match or counteract similar efforts by other nations. Various approaches toward export promotion include: • • • • • knowledge transfer direct or indirect subsidization of export activities reducing governmental red tape for exporters export financing and mixed aid credits to exporters altered tax legislation for nationals living abroad 11
  12. 12. Import Promotion • Countries that maintain large balance-of-trade surpluses use import promotion measures. • The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) has begun to focus on the promotion of imports to Japan. 12
  13. 13. Restrictions on Investment • • Many nations that lack necessary foreign exchange reserves restrict exports of capital, because capital flight can be a major problem. Once governments impose restrictions on the export of funds, the desire to transfer capital abroad increases. This creates problems for gaining new outside investors. 2/3/2014 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern 13
  14. 14. U.S. Perspective on Trade and Investment Policies • • • The U.S. seeks a positive trade policy rather than reactive, ad hoc responses to specific situations. Protectionist legislation can be helpful, provided it is not enacted into law. Trade promotion authority gives Congress the right to accept or reject treaties and agreements, but reduces the amendment procedures 14
  15. 15. International Perspective on Trade and Investment Policies • • From an international perspective, trade and investment negotiations must continue. In doing so, trade and investment policy can take either a multilateral or bilateral approach: • • bilateral negotiations are carried out mainly between two nations. multilateral negotiations are carried out among a number of nations. 15
  16. 16. APEC countries had a 45% share in world merchandise trade in 2011 Us$ 16.7 tn The top ten merchandise traders accounted for just over half of the world’s total merchandise trsde in 2011 45% 51% Economies by size of merchandise trade 2011 Merchandise exports from WTO members totalled us$ 16.7 trillon in 2011
  17. 17. APEC countries accounted for 39% of total trade in commercial services in 2011 US$ 4.03 tn The top ten commercial services traders represented almost half of total trade in commercial services in 2011 39% 49% Economies by size of trade in commercial services 2011 Exports of commercial services by WTO members totalled us$ 4.03 trillion in 2011
  18. 18. Merchandise trade flows with in regions outperform flows between region Africa Asia 37 476 1103 North America 65 382 18 201 Commonwealth of Independent States Central & South America & the Carribean Europe Middle East
  19. 19. Continue… Africa Asia 480 199 639 194 234 119 Europe Commonwealth of Independent states Central & South America & the caribben Europe Middle East 4667 North America
  20. 20. Continue.. Sales Africa 140 21 169 18 Central & South America & the Caribbean 138 200 8 Asia Commonwealth of Independent States Central & South Americ& THE Caribban Europe
  21. 21. Continue… Africa Asia 606 152 Commonwealth of Independent States 242 922 Asia 2926 189 110 Central & South America & the Caribban Europe Middle East North America
  22. 22. Leading economies of merchandise trade, 2011 2500 2000 Imports US $ BILLION Export 1500 1000 500 0 The United States was the world’s biggest merchandise trader in 2011 US $ 1,480 BN Exports US $ 2,266 BN Imports
  23. 23. Commercial service exports 2010-2011 Africa 2010 North… 2011 Middl… Asia Europe 11% Growth in export of world commercial Services in 2011 C… CIS world 0 10 20 30
  24. 24. Leading traders in commercial services, 2011 Itay Balnce Ireland Import Netherlands Exports India Japan US$ 976 bn United States US$ 542 BN Germany US$ 444 BN United Kingdom France China United Kingdom Germany United States -200 0 200 400 600 800
  25. 25. Leading Exporting and Importing Countries
  26. 26. Leading Exporting and Importing Countries, continued
  27. 27. Recent Growth/Decline for Leading Importers and Exporters
  28. 28. Recent Growth/Decline for Leading Importers and Exporters
  29. 29. Trade In India • • • • 29 Trade and commerce have been the backbone of the Indian economy right from ancient times. Textiles and spices were the first products to be exported by India. The Indian trade scenario evolved gradually after the country’s independence in 1947. From the 1950s to the late 1980s, the country followed socialist policies, resulting in protectionism and heavy regulations on foreign companies conducting trade with India. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  30. 30. India : Trade Imports India’s major imports comprise of crude oil machinery, military products, fertilizers, chemicals, gems, antiques and artworks. Imported goods are divided into the following categories: • Freely importable items: For these items, no import license is required. They can be freely imported by an individual or a firm. • Canalized items: These items can only be imported by public sector firms. For example petroleum products fall under this category. • Prohibited items: Items such as unprocessed ivory, animal rennet and tallow fat cannot be exported to India. 30 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  31. 31. India Trade: Exports • • 31 Indian exports comprise mainly of engineering and textile products, precious stones, petroleum products, jewelry, sugar, steel chemicals, zinc and leather products. Most of the exported goods are exempt from export duties. India also exports services to several countries, primarily to the US. In fact, India is among the world’s largest exporters of services related to information and communication technology (ICT). It is also the key destination for business process outsourcing (BPO). Global Business management M2- World Trade
  32. 32. India's Exports, Imports, and Balance of Trade from 2001-02 to 2010-11 Year Import Balance of trade 2001-02 2035.71 2308.73 -273.02 2002-03 2090.18 2452.00 -361.82 2003-04 2551.37 2972.06 -420.69 2004-05 2933.67 3591.08 -657.41 2005-06 3753.40 5010.65 -1257.25 2006-07 4564.18 6604.09 -2039.91 2007-08 5717.79 8405.06 -2687.27 2008-09 65558.64 10123.12 -3654.48 2009-10 8407.55 13744.36 -5336.80 2010-2011 32 Export 8455.34 13637.36 -5182.02 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  33. 33. Percentage growth of India’s Exports and Imports from 2001-02 to 2010-2011 Export Import 40 28 21 15 7 33 32 28 22 21 3 36 22 25 27 25 28 27 20 15 6 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  34. 34. Percentage Growth of Balance of trade from 2001-02 to 2010-2011 Series 1 100 80 Axis Title 60 40 20 Series 1 0 -20 -40 -60 34 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  35. 35. Percentage share of India’s Export of major item group in 2010-11 Engineering Goods Gems & Jewellery 18% 24% RMG of all types Drug, Phaarmaceutical & Fine Chemicals Other Basic Chmicals 2% 2% 3% 16% Iron Ore Electronic Goods 4% 4% 35 Petroleum Products Cotton Yarn/Fabs/made-ups etc. 5% 6% 16% Man Made yarn/Fabs/Made of Handloom Products Other Global Business management M2- World Trade
  36. 36. Export Promotion Capital Goods Scheme Zero duty import of capital goods for products : • Engineering and electronic products • Basic chemical and pharmaceutical • Apparel • Textiles • Plastic • Handicrafts • Leather • 2/3/2014 36 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  37. 37. Example • • 2/3/2014 37 Under the Focus Market Scheme, if an exporter exports to an identified country Rs.100 worth of goods, he will get 2.5% of Rs.100 on export of all products to the notified countries. Which he can either use to pay customs duty on his imported inputs or sell in the market as these scrips would be freely transferable. Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  38. 38. Export Oriented Units • EOUs have been allowed to sell products manufactured by them in DTA (Domestic Tariff Area, outside the Special Economic Zone) up to the limit of 90 percent instead of existing limit of 75 percent. 2/3/2014 38 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  39. 39. Simplification of Procedure & Reduction in Transaction cost • • • 2/3/2014 39 The application and redemption form under the EPCG scheme have been simplified. Maximum fee on license application slashed to Rs. 1 lakh from Rs. 1.5 Lakh (manual application) For Electronic application from Rs. 50000/- which was Rs. 75000/Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  40. 40. • • • In order to reduce transaction cost, dispatch of imported goods directly from port to site has been allowed under the Advance Authorization Scheme To facilitate duty-free import of sample by exporters number of samples or pieces has been increased from 15 to 50. Custom clearance of these samples shall be based on declarations given by the importers for value and quantity of samples. 2/3/2014 40 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  41. 41. Other Initiative • • Income Tax exemption to 100 percent for EOU and STPI (Software Technology Park) units has been extended. Exporters have been assured that their need for dollar credit, specially for small and medium enterprises, will be met in a timely manner. 2/3/2014 41 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  42. 42. The effect of new Foreign Trade Policy on Different sectors Gems and Jewelry: • 2/3/2014 42 The government has declared duty draw backs on gold Jewelry exports, in case the yellow metal has been imported independently by Jewelry makers. Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  43. 43. • • Exporters participating in overseas exhibitions will be permitted to carry merchandise worth $5 million earlier it was 2 million allowed. Even the limit of personal carriage-samples for export promotion tours has been increased by US$ 1 million. 2/3/2014 43 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  44. 44. Leather Sector: • • Re-exporting of unsold imported hides and skins and semi-finished leather have been permitted on payment of 50% export duty. Increase of FPS rate to 2% will reportedly benefit this sector. 2/3/2014 44 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  45. 45. • Pharmaceuticals • Export obligation period (EOP) has been extended from 6 months to 36 months for advance authorizations for Pharmaceutical Products. • Domestic drug exporters will hugely benefit from the extension of export obligation period. • This will encourage exporters to import raw materials and enjoy tax benefits for a period of three years for exporting finished goods. 2/3/2014 45 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  46. 46. Tea • • Exports of tea have been brought under Videsh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKGUY), which provides 5% incentive. This exporter-friendly policy is expected to offset some of the soaring costs, like transportation. 2/3/2014 46 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  47. 47. Agriculture • • To bring down the transactions costs and handling costs in agricultural sector, a singlewindow system has been put in place to facilitate export of perishable agricultural produce. The system will include, setting up of multifunctional nodal agencies to be accredited by (Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority)APEDA. 2/3/2014 47 Global Business management M2- World Trade Investment Pattern
  48. 48. EXIM BANK • • • • 48 Set up by an act of parliament in September 1981 Wholly owned by Government of India Commenced operations in march, 1982 Established “for providing financial assistance to exporters and importers, and for functioning as the principal financial institution for coordinating the working of institutions engaged in financing export and import of goods and services with a view to promoting the country’s international trade…” Global Business management M2- World Trade
  49. 49. India – Africa Trade and Investment Relationship 49 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  50. 50. SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION The weak economic conditions in the western world could impact the flow of FDI, ODA and trade with African economies. Increasing role of large developing countries in global trade, finance and investment coupled with their rapid economic growth suggest that Africa focuses on long-term & mutually beneficial engagement with the these economies. India and Africa have shared healthy economic and political ties for a long time. To further boost the ties, India has undertaken major policy initiatives e.g. India-Africa Partnership conclaves, India-Africa Forum, Focus Africa Programme etc. India has emerged Africa’s fourth largest trade partner after EU, China and US. India Africa trade has soared from US$ 4.5 bn in 2000-01 to US$ 67.9 bn in 2011-12 and is expected to reach US$90 bn by 2015. 50 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  51. 51. SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION CONTD.. • India’s engagement in Africa is aimed at building a sustainable partnership centered around capacity building, technology dissemination, people-centric approach, educational support, capital support etc. • At the 2nd India-Africa Forum Summit, held in May 2011, India announced a Duty Free Tariff Preferential scheme (DFTP) for the 49 least developed countries, 33 of whom are in Africa. This will cover 94% of India’s total tariff lines and, more importantly provide preferential market access on tariff lines for 92.5% of the global exports of all LDCs. • Items covered - cotton, cocoa, aluminium ores, copper ores, cashew nuts, cane sugar, readymade garments, fish fillets, non industrial diamonds etc. • It is hoped that the LDC’s in Africa, who have not yet subscribed to the DFTP scheme, would do so shortly and make use of this increased market access to the large Indian market. 51 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  52. 52. INDIA’S EXPORTS TO AFRICA LDC* vs. NON-LDC • KEY PLAYERS Total Exports to Africa $ 24.7 bn 2011-2012 % Share USD bn in Africa Source: Commerce Ministry, India 52 *Least Developed Countries $ 17.5 bn (70.9%) 4.7 19.2 NIGERIA 2.7 10.9 2.4 9.8 KENYA 2.3 9.2 TANZANIA REP^ 1.6 6.5 TOTAL To non-LDCs SOUTH AFRICA EGYPT A RP $ 7.2 bn To LDCs (29.1%) 13.7 55.6 ^LDC Global Business management M2- World Trade
  53. 53. INDIA’S IMPORTS FROM AFRICA LDC vs. NON-LDC • Total Imports from $ 43.2 Africa bn KEY PLAYERS 2011-2012 % Share USD bn in Africa NIGERIA 14.7 34.0 SOUTH AFRICA 9.9 23.1 ANGOLA* 6.6 15.3 EGYPT A RP 3.0 7.0 ALGERIA 2.2 5.0 TOTAL $ 9.4 bn From LDCs (21.8%) 36.5 84.4 $ 33.8 From non-LDCs bn (78.2%) Source: Commerce Ministry, India 53 *LDC Global Business management M2- World Trade
  54. 54. AFRICA - FDI INFLOWS USD billion 73.4 63.3 52.6 43.1 2007 2008 2009 42.7 2010 2011 Source: World Investment Report 2012, African Economic Outlook 2012  FDI inflows to Africa declined for the third consecutive year after peaking in 2008.  In 2011, while FDI inflows increased by 14% in East & South East Asia and 16% in Latin America & Caribbean, it declined by 1% in Africa. 54 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  55. 55. AFRICA - FDI INFLOWS (CONTD..)  FDI is an important source of productive investment (fixed assets & inventories) in Africa. According to UNCTAD 2010 investment report, the average share of FDI in gross fixed capital was 19.2% in Africa which is almost double the world average and well above 12.4% for other developing countries.  Between 2010 and 2011, FDI to Africa from developed countries fell leading to increase in share of developing and transition economies for the first time. According to World Investment Report 2012, share of the later increased from 45% in 2010 to 53% in 2011.  This is expected to rise further as these economies look for additional natural resources and access to growing African markets.  Apart from natural resources, investment is also getting routed into manufacturing and services which enhances the potential for technology transfer and increasing productivity and thereby aiding economic growth of countries not rich in resources. 55 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  56. 56. INDIAN INVESTMENT IN AFRICA • • • 56 Total Indian investment in Africa is upwards of US$ 33 bn. According to research agency “fdi Intelligence”, Africa recorded 26 new manufacturing projects from Indian companies in 2011, a rise of 44% from 2010. This led to almost 17000 new job creation. Between 2003-2009, 70 Indian companies invested in greenfield projects in Africa, totaling US$ 25 billion; this represents close to 5 percent of total greenfield FDI projects in Africa, according to African Development Bank. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  57. 57. OVERSEAS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, NET (USD BN) 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012p Source: African Economic Outlook 2012   57 ODA, an important source of finance along with FDI, has stagnated in the post crisis period. The trend could continue well in the future because of the sovereign debt crisis and the austerity measures in the OECD countries. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  58. 58. INDIAN AID TO AFRICA • • • • 58 Indian aid to Africa is mostly in the form of capacity building, skill development, credit lines, scholarships and knowledge sharing. Total aid to Africa during 2011-12 was Rs. 150 cr (USD 27.5 mn) as compared to a miniscule Rs. 10 cr in 1997-98. During the 2nd India-Africa summit held in May 2011, India unveiled US$ 5.7 bn in credit and grants for development projects and over a 100 capacity building institutions in Africa. Relationship between aid and trade can make the process sustainable. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  59. 59. FUNDING REQUIREMENTS & DEFICIT FOR INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA USD bn. annually Capital expenditur e Operation and maintenance Total Requiremen t Actual Spendin g Defici t Total 60.4 33 93.3 45.3 48 Power 26.7 14.1 40.8 11.6 29.2 Water & Sanitation 14.9 7.0 21.9 7.6 14.3 Transport 8.8 9.4 18.2 16.2 2.0 ICT 7.0 2.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 Irrigation 2.9 0.6 3.4 0.9 2.5 Sector Source: World Bank (2010) • Current spending on infrastructure in Africa is roughly $ 45 bn. per year  there is a gap of $ 48.3 bn. annually which needs to be filled According to African Economic Outlook 2012, “Africa’s inability to mobilize finance and private sector involvement has held up energy and infrastructure development. The recent Africa Energy Outlook 2040 study (NEPAD, African Union and AfDB 2011) concludes that an estimated USD 43.6 billion per year will be needed to meet forecast energy demand for Africa up to 2040.” 59 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  60. 60. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION IN AFRICA THROUGH MEANINGFUL COLABORATION    At 200 mn, Africa has the youngest (15-24 yrs) population in the world and it is expected to double by 2040. Working age population (15-64 yrs) grew from 443 mn to 550 mn between 2000 and 2008, an increase of 25% (CAGR of 2.7%) and is likely to reach 1 bn by 2040. The youth population is not only growing fast but also getting better educated which calls for creation of meaningful jobs to engage them in the productive sectors of the economy. Failure to do so could pose a risk and threat to social cohesion and political stability in Africa. Source: African Economic Outlook 2012 60 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  61. 61. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION IN AFRICA THROUGH MEANINGFUL COLABORATION (CONTD..) • • • 61 In many segments, the emerging African demand pattern is similar to India’s 10 years ago. Consequently, the technology and product offerings of Indian firms can meet the cost structure and product aspirations can of the African consumers. This provides an opportunity to Indian firms to invest in Africa and thereby creating meaningful employment opportunities. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  62. 62. INDIA-AFRICA TRADE RELATIONSHIP The WTO-CII study indicates:      62 Since 2005, India-Africa economic partnership has moved to a new trajectory. Trade and investment are the two facets of this relationship, followed by development assistance. Notwithstanding global partnership has grown. economic crisis, South-South economic Key sector of Indian investment IT, telecom, energy, automobile, engineering services, management and supplies. – project Trade has gone beyond natural resources and encompasses value added products. Global Business management M2- World Trade
  63. 63. INDIA-AFRICA TRADE RELATIONSHIP CONTD..  Survey results from 60 key African and Indian companies suggests - where commercially driven development assistance can make a difference, key problem areas for trade: • • Access to market – knowledge about market • • Access to trade finance Transport and logistics cost Africa’s difficulties in investing in India • • Business environment • • Absence of bilateral investment treaties Difficulty in securing finance India’s difficulties in investing in Africa • • Business environment • Market Size • 63 Absence of bilateral treaties Lack of tax incentives Global Business management M2- World Trade
  64. 64. UNDERSTANDING INDIA-AFRICA RELATIONSHIP • Africa is not a homogenous market, it is a fragmented economy • Different countries are at different stages of development • • • • • 64 There has been some success in removing import duties within regional groupings However a range of non-tariff and regulatory barriers remain – raising transaction costs Movement of goods & services and people across borders is somewhat restricted Consequently, internal transport costs are high. This adds to the costs of goods & services in the hinterland Intra-Africa fragmentation restricts the size of the market Global Business management M2- World Trade
  65. 65. INDIA-AFRICA RELATIONSHIP (A BILATERAL OR REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE) Learning from CEO’s Forum (India-South Africa) • • • • • Take up issues impacting bilateral trade and investment and suggest policy measures to meet a trade target Focus on sectors of interest – Financial services, mining, pharma & healthcare, infrastructure & power, manufacturing Issues considered – tariff barriers, visa applications, PTA possibility and technology transfer Principles of reciprocity and partnership Action oriented proposals and need for policy tweaking/change Similar format can be used with other African countries/regions A private stakeholder’s initiative with government support 65 Global Business management M2- World Trade
  66. 66. THANKYOU Global Business management 66 M2- World Trade Investment Pattern