Everything Wired Must Converge – Christopher Elliot

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Presentation comparing Clay Shirkey's Here Comes Everybody to Chris Elliots 1997 article Everything Wired Must Converge

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Everything Wired Must Converge – Christopher Elliot

  1. 1. Everything Wired Must Converge – Christopher Elliot<br />The Dangerous and Fun world of Predictions<br />
  2. 2. Arthur C. Clarke<br />In his 1973 collection of essay’s “Profiles of the Future”, Clarke proposed three laws of prediction:<br />
  3. 3. Clarke’s three laws of prediction<br />When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.<br />The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.<br />Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.<br />
  4. 4. Everything Wired Must Converge<br />Written in 1997, details the rise of HTML and TCP/IP as common computing protocols.<br />Describes the closed networks of AOL, CompuServe and the early adopters of the internet.<br />Makes the bold prediction that companies who invest in networking information will be successful in the future.<br />
  5. 5. Everything Wired Must Converge<br />Correctly predicted the need to integrate web services with order fulfillment.<br />Makes no mention of long tail, the rise of niche markets or social media.<br />Plays on internets early fears (hackers, terrible online security) as potential stumbling blocks.<br />Insinuates the early e-commerce ideas of catalogues online.<br />
  6. 6. What about people?<br />Looking back at the rush to adopt technology, few predicted the social aspects of network convergence.<br />Elliot’s article is typical of the time – businesses need to converge their systems, but few expected the social aspects of change.<br />Those who did have profited – amazon.com and ebay.com are examples.<br />
  7. 7. Predictions are a tough business<br />Predicting we may have flying cars or nanobots performing medical procedures is easy. <br />Predicating how we change because of that is hard.<br />
  8. 8. What to take away?<br />No one knows anything about the future. We are all just guessing. <br />Guessing about what technology is coming is way easier than the behavioral shift responding to the technology.<br />Shirkey’sHere Comes Everybody is a nice recap of where the convergence has taken us, but even he ends the book questioning where that will take culture. <br />

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