Wealth and Power in the New World Order


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Carol Lancaster, Interim Dean of the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, gave a CIRS Distinguished Lecture on the topic of “Wealth and Power in the ‘New International Order.’”

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Wealth and Power in the New World Order

  1. 1. Wealth and Power in the New World Order Carol Lancaster 12 October 2009 Distinguished Lecture Series:
  2. 2. Basic Message <ul><li>We are living a slow-moving and fundamental </li></ul><ul><li>transition in wealth and power in the world </li></ul><ul><li>involving – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>changes in the distribution of wealth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a redefinition of power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>challenges to world order </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Questions <ul><li>What was the “old world order” like? </li></ul><ul><li>What changes have occurred that contribute to a different world today? </li></ul><ul><li>With what consequences for power and wealth – and order? </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Old World Order <ul><li>State Centric </li></ul><ul><li>Two ‘super-powers’ > Cold War </li></ul><ul><li>The rich North and the poor South </li></ul><ul><li>End of old order – circa 1991 </li></ul>
  5. 5. The End of the Cold War “You will miss us when we are gone…”
  6. 6. Prosperity and Change in the Global South <ul><li>Some real progress in growth in the South and reduction in poverty, economic liberalization, political openings and expansion in role of women </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing integration of many states into global economy </li></ul><ul><li>Erosion of reality of a “Third World” of poverty and underdevelopment </li></ul><ul><li>Temporary ( inshallah ) setback </li></ul>
  7. 7. Trends leading to end of Old Order <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Education & capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Political stability </li></ul><ul><li>Prosperity (effect & cause) </li></ul>
  8. 8. Characteristics of evolving world today <ul><li>Deconcentration of wealth </li></ul><ul><li>Redefinition and decentralization of power </li></ul><ul><li>Increased potential for disorder </li></ul>
  9. 9. The Spread of Economic Wealth World GDP Growth 1990-2008 G-5 Growth as % of World
  10. 10. The Spread of Wealth <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>GDP G-20 as % of World GDP 1960-2008 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Behind the Growth <ul><li>Growth in World Trade 1950-2001 </li></ul>
  12. 12. Decentralization and redefinition of power <ul><li>Increasingly integrated and interdependent </li></ul><ul><li>No longer State-centric . Now many different influential international actors and networks </li></ul><ul><li>Power to use force (military) still important; power to disrupt or block more important than ever before </li></ul>
  13. 13. In addition – new challenges <ul><li>demography + prosperity = pressure on resources (e.g., water, energy, food) + climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Aging in richer countries + youth and poverty in poorer countries = migration and challenges to identities. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Population Growth <ul><li>Enormous continuing increase in population </li></ul><ul><li>But aging populations in rich and big countries </li></ul>
  15. 15. Age and Youth
  16. 17. Demography, Identity and Movement of Peoples
  17. 18. Impact of “Great Recession” <ul><li>Demonstration of integration, decentralization </li></ul><ul><li>of power and wealth and vulnerabilities to </li></ul><ul><li>disorder </li></ul>
  18. 19. Global Challenges in the New World Order <ul><li>Who or what is to create and manage order in the “new world order”? </li></ul><ul><li>Past approaches to world order: empires, hegemony and alliances </li></ul><ul><li>Candidates for leadership: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The weakness of the UN </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The fragmentation of the EU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The role of the US in the world: bounded power and the weight of domestic politics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The meaning of the replacement of the G-7 by the G-20 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of regional and sectoral actors </li></ul></ul>
  19. 20. Challenges to States in new world order <ul><li>Security in an integrated world </li></ul><ul><li>Managing political change </li></ul><ul><li>Managing economic prosperity </li></ul><ul><li>Managing immigration and identity </li></ul><ul><li>Managing global problems </li></ul>