Geopolitics and the Gulf<br />Lecture:<br />MehranKamrava<br />26 October 2009<br />
Historical Context<br />The Gulf and Global Politics 	<br />Oil and the Political Economy of the Gulf <br />The Political ...
Gulf Oil Production<br />21.7 million bbl/d in 2000<br />30.7 million bbl/d by 2010<br />42.9 million bbl/d by 2020<br />2...
GNP & GDP average annual growth rate in developing countries<br />1970-1995 (GNP) 	1990-2000 (GDP) 	2000-2007 (GDP) <br />...
Population & Wealth in the Gulf<br />Population	   GDP Per Capita (000$)<br />	Bahrain   0.75 	37,200<br />	Iran	  71.0		 ...
GCC Exposure to the Global Financial Crisis<br />Direct banking sector exposure to toxic assets;<br />Sudden stop/reversal...
Global Downturn and the GCC<br />60% fall in GCC hydrocarbons revenue in 2009, to around $200 billion<br />	Five Consequen...
Geopolitics of the Gulf
Geopolitics of the Gulf
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Geopolitics of the Gulf

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Mehran Kamrava, CIRS Director and Interim Dean of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar, lectured to a group of French scholars from the HEC on the Geopolitics of the Gulf. Kamrava gave a broad overview of the relationships between the Gulf states and how these associations are shaped by the geopolitics of the region.

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Geopolitics of the Gulf

  1. 1. Geopolitics and the Gulf<br />Lecture:<br />MehranKamrava<br />26 October 2009<br />
  2. 2. Historical Context<br />The Gulf and Global Politics <br />Oil and the Political Economy of the Gulf <br />The Political Economy of Growth <br />
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  13. 13. Gulf Oil Production<br />21.7 million bbl/d in 2000<br />30.7 million bbl/d by 2010<br />42.9 million bbl/d by 2020<br />28% of world production in 2000 to 35% in 2020<br />International Energy Agency<br />
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  15. 15. GNP & GDP average annual growth rate in developing countries<br />1970-1995 (GNP) 1990-2000 (GDP) 2000-2007 (GDP) <br /> South Korea 10.0 5.8 4.7 <br /> Botswana 7.3 6.0 5.3 <br /> China 6.9 10.6 10.3 <br /> Thailand 5.2 4.2 5.3 <br /> Indonesia 4.7 4.2 5.1 <br /> Malaysia 4.0 7.0 5.4 <br /> Egypt 3.7 4.4 4.3 <br />Oman 3.3 4.5 4.7 <br /> Tunisia 2.3 4.7 4.8 <br /> Israel 2.0 5.4 3.2 <br /> Morocco 1.8 2.4 5.0 <br /> Syria 1.4 5.1 4.5 <br />Iran -2.4 3.1 5.9 <br />Saudi Arabia -2.9 2.1 4.1 <br />Kuwait -3.5 4.9 9.2 <br /> UAE -4.0 4.8 7.7 <br /> Libya -4.8 … 3.7 <br />Qatar -5.9 … 6.1 (2005) <br />
  16. 16. Population & Wealth in the Gulf<br />Population GDP Per Capita (000$)<br /> Bahrain 0.75 37,200<br /> Iran 71.0 12,800<br /> Kuwait 2.7 57,400<br /> Oman 2.6 20,200<br /> Qatar 0.84 103,500<br /> KSA 24.2 20,700<br /> UAE 4.4 40,000<br />
  17. 17. GCC Exposure to the Global Financial Crisis<br />Direct banking sector exposure to toxic assets;<br />Sudden stop/reversal in foreign capital inflows;<br />Weaker non-commodity export growth;<br />Plunge in commodity prices, most notably crude oil;<br />Faltering demand for energy-intensive industrial and building materials.<br />
  18. 18. Global Downturn and the GCC<br />60% fall in GCC hydrocarbons revenue in 2009, to around $200 billion<br /> Five Consequences:<br />Sharp decline in liquidity and assets that fueled the 2002-2009 business growth spurt;<br />Steady growth deceleration in all economic sectors;<br />Steady decline in inflation, especially in real estate and other consumer indices;<br />A steady wave of consolidation across several sectors;<br />Built-in Structural resilience and growth momentum will make Qatar less susceptible to downturn, followed by Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia.<br />

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