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Business	Sense	• IP	MattersBusiness	Sense	• IP	Matters 1
Patent	Market	2016	–
Importance	of	Aggregators	to	
Manage	Risk	and	Market	Data
Erik	Oliver,	Kent	Richardson	&	
Michael	Costa
November	17,	2016
Contact	Information:
+1	(650)	967-6555
info@richardsonoliver.com
Copyright	2015	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Case	Study:	Why	Trade	in	Patents?
• OurCo’s revenue	grew	very	quickly	(from	
$<50M	to	>>	$1B)	in	the	course	of	a	few	
years
• Successful	IPO
• Revenue	continues	to	grow
• Almost	no	patents	(<	50)
• Patents	were	not	pursued	and	were	not	a	
strategic	focus
• OurCo faced	the	risk	of	defending	against	
significant	patent	assertions
• NPEs	(IV,	small	NPEs)
• Corporate	patent	asserters	(Microsoft,	
IBM…)
The	story	of	OurCo – the	challenge
Example	Companies	With	
Similar	Challenges
Copyright	2015	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
#	Assets
Priority	Year
Total	Portfolio	by	Priority	Year
Acquired	Portfolio Organic	Portfolio
Large	Corprate	Asserter
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
#	of	Assets
Priority	Year
Portfolio	Growth	by	Priority	Year
Organic	Portfolio Large	Corprate	Asserter
Projected	Organic	Portfolio
Case	Study:	OurCo Addresses	Patent	Deficit	with	
Bought	and	Organic	Growth
Pre	Implementation:	Gap	Between	
OurCo and	Likely	Asserters
Post	Implementation:	Organic	Filings	and	
Patent	Purchases	Address	the	Challenge
3Copyright	2015	ROL
~13	year	span ~13	year	span
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Case	Study:	Actionable	Results
Prepared	Counter-assertion	Strategy
Company Pre-Program	
Strategy
Today’s	Strategy
Company1 Assumed	Low	Risk Business	Relationship
Company2 Assumed	Low	Risk Business	Relationship
Company3 Assumed	Low	Risk Business	Relationship
Company4 Assumed	Low	Risk Business	Relationship
Company5 Assumed	Low	Risk Business	Relationship
Company6 Unknown	Risk Key	Patents	Identified
Company7 High	Risk Key	Patents	Identified
Company8 High	Risk EOUs	Created
Company9 High	Risk EOUs	Created
Company10 Unknown	Risk EOUs	Created
Company11 Unknown	Risk EOUs	Created
•Actionable	response	strategies	for	licensing	approaches	were	created	for	companies	of	
concern
•Facilitated	by	targeted	buying	to	build	playbooks	with	EOUs	on	companies	of	concerns
•Targeted	buying	makes	our	portfolio	relevant	to	licensing	negotiations;	comparable	
proportion	to	the	asserter’s	organic	portfolio	in	many	instances
Playbooks
4
Asserting	Company's	2003	
Organic	Filings
OurCo's	2013	Targeted	
Buying
#	of	Patents
Targeted	Buying
Not	applicable	to	current	negotiation
Valuable	to	current	negotiation
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
2016	Market	Overview
• Asking	prices	have	stabilized
• Sales	are	down
• Sales	rates	of	2016	listings	decreased	significantly
• Total	transactions	also	down,	but	less	so
• Brokered	market	down	to	$165M	from	$233M	last	year
Market	trends
• New	sources	have	expanded	buying	opportunities
• IAM	Market	and	IP3	
New	places	to	buy
• NPEs	pulling	back	from	the	market
• Purchases	by	corporations	have	exceeded	NPE	purchases
• Even	Intellectual	Ventures	(IV)	is	affected
• IV	no	longer	buys	the	most:	RPX	is	the	new	buying	leader
• Alice crushed	much	of	the	fintech	patent	market	and	impacted	software	package	sales	rates
Negative	patent	decisions	having	impact
• Litigation	risk	from	sold	packages	is	much	higher	than	previously	reported	(better	source	data)
• Reconsider	your	risk	models
• Reconsider	membership	in	defensive	aggregators
Litigation
5Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Patent	Buying	Ecosystem
Patent	
Market
Buyers
• Apple,	Amazon,	Facebook,	
Google,	Intel,	Microsoft,	
Qualcomm
• Intellectual	Ventures,	Acacia
• RPX,	OIN,	AST,	Unified	
Patents
Sellers
• SMEs,	Cisco,	Yahoo!,	ATT,	
Verizon
• Intellectual	Ventures,	AST,	
RPX
Deal	Makers	&	Brokers
• Richardson	Oliver	Law	Group
• Quinn	Pacific,	ICAP,	Patent	
Profit
• Bankers,	law	firms,	IAM	
managers
6Copyright	2015	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
What	Is	in	a	Brokered	Patent	Package?
•Contents
•List	of	patents	for	sale,	applicable	market,	infringement	analysis	(claim	chart),	background	on	the	seller
•Additional	information
•Asking	price,	bid	dates,	special	circumstances	(license	back,	specific	encumbrances)
Typical	package
•Confluence	Patent	Portfolio
•Single	family	(15	US	Patents	and	7	open	applications)	relating	to	social	network	data	aggregation.	
•2006	priority	date.
•Received	July	2013
•Sold	October	2014
•Asking	prices:	“7	figures”
•Multiple	claim	charts	presented	for
•Apple
•Google
•Facebook
•Purchased	by	an	operating	company
•Fingerprint	Cards	AB
Example	package	from	Patent	Profit	(Will	Plut)
•Receive	about	50	packages	per	month	covering	a	broad	range	of	technologies	
Package	flow
7Copyright	2015	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Market	Context
8
• Since	2011	we	have	tracked	$7.5B	brokered	and	$3.7B	non-brokered	patent	packages
• Over	3,700	packages	with	90,000	patent	assets
• Over	100	technology	categories	represented	across	hardware,	software,	communications;	including	
automotive-specific	categories
Robust	market	- Over	$11B	of	patent	deals	tracked
• 772	packages,	over	11,000	assets
• IAM	market	accounts	for	increased	packages	- More	places	for	buyers	to	look	for	packages
• Number	of	sales	and	sales	rate	may	be dropping
• Takeaway: Monitoring	the	market	enables	cost	effective	risk	mitigation
2016	market	robust,	but...
Copyright	2016	ROL
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Cumulative	sum	of	asking	prices	($B)	- brokered	and	private	market
Cum	Sum	Asking	Price	(Entire	Market) Cum	Sum	Total	Asking	Price	(Sold)
Predicted	Cum	Sum	Asking	Price	(Entire	Market) Predicted	Cum	Sum	Total	Asking	Price	(Sold)
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Patent	Market	Moves	Closer	to	Mainstream
Bloomberg	Publishes	Patent	Market	
Data Participates	Move	to	Optimize
• What	is	the	patent	market?
To
How	do	I	participate	
effectively?
• Can	I	address	patent	
problems	by	buying	patents?
To
How	do	I	find	the	best	
patents	the	fastest	and	
cheapest?
Narrative	shifting	from:
9Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
What’s	Hot	in	the	Patent	Market	Today
10Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<1 <2 <3 <4 <5 <6
Cumulate	%	Sold
Time	from	Package	Listing	Date	to	Sale	Date	(years)
Cumulative	sales	by	years	from	package	listing	date
2011
2013
2014
Predicted	2015
Market	Context:	Sales	Rates	Are	Down
11
•Represents	the	percentage	of	patent	packages	sold	(as	recorded	in	the	US	Patent	&	Trademark	
Office	assignment	records)
•Sales	rates	remain	down	sharply	from	2009,	with	estimated	2014	packages	slightly	higher
•Packages	sell	in	the	first	two	years	à sales	data	lags	listing	data	by	about	2	years
Sales	rates	are	down	– Good	time	to	be	a	buyer
Copyright	2016	ROL
• Source	Richardson	Oliver	Law	Group	LLP,	2016	Brokered	Market	Report
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Market	Context:	Sales	per	Quarter
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2
#	of	Packages	Sold	in	Quarter
Actual	and	projected	sales	by	sales	quarter
Actual Projected
Average	+/- 1	StDev
• ~190	new	packages	listed	each	quarter
• ~25-41	sales	per	quarter	(average	± 1	stdev)
• Sales	drivers:	EOUs,	fit	to	market	needs
Sales	per	quarter
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Market	Context:	Broker	Performance
13
•Not	all	brokers	perform	equally	well
•Brokers	are	highly	selective
•We	can	help	you	focus	outreach	to	top	performing	brokers
•Difficult	time	for	new	brokers	because	sales	from	older	listings	can	supplement	sales	
rates	for	new	listings
Broker	performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Sales	Rate
Number	of	Listings
2015	Broker	Sales	Rate	by	Number	of	Listed	Packages	(Calendar	Year)
Broker's	2015	Sales	Rate 2015	Sales	Rate	10.4%
2015	Current	Sales	Rate	(10.4%)	
Projected	is	21%
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Market	Context:	2016	Pricing	Stabilization
14
Asking	Prices	($K) 2016 2015
Per	Asset Per	US	Patent Per	Asset Per	US	Patent
Average $197.32 $271.44 $190.31 $273.60
Min $16.67 $36.11 $17.24 $183.82
Max $750 $1000 $925 $1000
StdDev $177.44 $217.53 $181.14 $243.54
NumData 431 416 440 431
•Pricing	has	stabilized	– and	is	taken	more	seriously	by	buyers
•Prices	are	almost	exactly	the	same	as	last	year
•Standard	deviations	are	smaller
•But,	sales	rate	of	2016	listings	is	significantly	below	that	of	a	comparable	period	last	year
•Prices	vary	substantially	by	package	size
Market	pricing
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Marketing	EOUs:	Why	They	Matter
15
Per	Asset	2016 Per	asset	with	EOU
2016
%	difference	between	EOU	
packages	and	general	market +27%
Average $197.32	 $251.12	
Median $150.00	 $166.67	
Min $16.67	 $19.61	
Max $750.00	 $925.00	
StdDev $177.44	 $225.07	
NumData 431 200
•EOUs	drive	pricing	premiums:	+27%
•Packages	with	EOUs	are	+50%	more	likely	to	sell
•Combined	benefit	91%	increase	in	expected	monetization	value
•Per	asset	prices	may	obscure	underlying	pricing	dynamics,	mix	of	value	drivers	and	
additional	patents	to	reach	a	mutually	acceptable	price	point	and	obscure	value	driver	
patents
•We	typically	recommend	a	package	with	3-5	families	(typically	10-20	assets)	with	1-2	
value	driver	families	with	EOUs
•Pricing	sweet	spot	for	a	package	is	$250K-2M
EOU	marketing	benefits
Combine	
with	better	
sales
Per	Asset	
2016
Pricing premium +27%	
Increased	sales	rate +50%	
91%	Monetization	Premium
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
66%
17%
10%
3%2%1%
Distribution	of	seller	type	by	sale	year	2015-2016
Operating	company
NPE
Inventor
University/research
Defensive	aggregator
Other
Distribution	of	Seller	Type	by	Sale	Year
16
•Operating	companies	represent	over	66%	of	the	patents	
on	the	market	down	from	71%
•NPEs	increased	their	sales	up	last	year,	this	has	continued	
- 17%	up	from	16%	- likely	as	a	result	of	difficulties	
enforcing	their	patents
•Cross-licensing	prior	to	competitor	patent	sales	is	a	
benefit
Operating	companies	dominate	the	market
• Source	Richardson	Oliver	Law	Group	LLP,	2016	Brokered	Market	Report
Top	Sellers	by	Package	Count
Alcatel	Lucent
Allied	Security	Trust	(AST)
ATT
BAE	Systems,	Inc.	
British	Telecom
Caveo
Elizabeth	Dyor
Empire	IP,	LLC
Harris	Corporation
IBM
Imation	Corporation
Intel
NEC
Netsocket
Nokia	Solutions	and	Networks	(NSN)
Panasonic	Corporation
Petnote	LLC
QinetiQ	Limited
Rockstar
Rovi	Corporation
TP	Lab,	Inc.
Tyco	Electronics
Verisign,	Inc.
Verizon
VideoMining	Corporation
Xerox/PARC
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
48%
34%
15%
3%
Distribution	of	buyer	type	by	sale	year	2015-2016
Operating	company
NPE
Defensive	aggregator
Other
Distribution	of	Buyer	Type	by	Sale	Year
17
•NPE	buying	is	down	to	32%	(from	42%)	– but	still	
significant	buying
•We	expect	that	remaining	NPE’s	are	more	sophisticated
•Monitoring	the	market	continues	to	be	valuable	tool	for	
fighting	the	NPE	problem
•IV	buying	dropped	to	only	13	packages	(down	from	40)
•How	successful	are	IV’s	licensing	and	sales?
•RPX	is	top	single	buyer
Operating	companies	now	top	buyers
• Source	Richardson	Oliver	Law	Group	LLP,	2016	Brokered	Market	Report
Top	Buyers	by	Package	Count
9051147	Canada	Inc.
Alliacense	Limited	Llc
Allied	Security	Trust	(AST)
Beijing	Xiaomi	Mobile	Software	Co.,	Ltd.
Carlow	Innovations	LLC
Commscope	Emea	Limited
Domo,	Inc.
Empire	IP	LLC
Facebook,	Inc.
Finnavations	LLC	
Gemalto	SA
Google	Inc.
Huawei	Technologies	Co.,	Ltd.
Intellectual	Discovery	Co.,	Ltd.
Intellectual	Ventures
Knapp	Investment	Company
Linkedin	Corporation
Marking	Object	Virtualization	Intelligence,	
LLC
Microsoft	Technology	Licensing	LLC
Open	Invention	Network,	LLC
Optimum	Communications	Services,	Inc.
Palo	Alto	Networks,	Inc.
Rakuten,	Inc.
Red	Hat,	Inc.
RPX	Corporation
Taiwan	Semiconductor	Manufacturing	Co.,	
Ltd.
Twitter,	Inc.
Uniloc	Luxembourg	S.A.
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Value	for	business	purposes	of	a	specific	buyer
Proportion	of	the	patent	market	
Importance	of	Sequencing	Diligence:	Value	
Distribution	in	the	Brokered	Market
18
Goal:	Identify	high-value	patents	to	
purchase	(1-2%	of	market)
Copyright	2016	ROL
✓
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Importance	of	Sequencing	Diligence:	Value	
Distribution	in	the	Brokered	Market
19
Stage	1:	General	Tech	
Filter	($)
Stage	2:	Targeted	Tech	
Filter	($$)
Stage	3:	Patent	Validity	
and	Prior	Art	Analysis	
($$$)
Stage	4:	Building	
and	Testing	EOUs	
($$$$)
X
X
X
X
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
✓
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Litigation	Analysis:	First	Litigation
Has	Litigation (2012-
2016	market	year	
packages)
Has	IPR (2014-2015	
market	year	packages)
Package	
Type
Prior	to	
listing	date
After	
listing	date
Prior	to	
listing	date
After	
listing	date
Sold	
packages
5.4% 10.2% 0.0% 3.0%
All	
packages
3.8% 3.5% 0.0% 1.4%
20
•10.2%	of	sold	packages	are	litigated
•Previous	litigations	also	increase	likelihood	of	sale
•Model	at	package	level:	often	have	to	buy	the	full	package	and	cannot	cherry	pick
•Per	patent	litigation	risk:	all	patents:	0.8%;	sold	patents:	1.2%
Litigation
•Monitoring	the	patent	market	for	sales	allows	for	strategic/preemptive	IPRs
IPRs
•However,	risk	is	significantly	more	concentrated	in	the	sold	packages
•Defensive	aggregator	value	may	be	greater	than	anticipated
•Pursue	licenses	(or	license	on	transfer)	before	an	OpCo	starts	listing	its	portfolio		
Both	sold	and	unsold	packages	are	litigated	post	listing
Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
Q0 Overall
NPE 96% 86%
OpCo 4% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%	of	Litigations
Distributions	of	OpCo	vs	NPE	Litigations
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cumulative	%	of	NPE	Litigations
Quarters	from	Sale	Date
Cumulative	distribution	of	time	from	sale	to		
filing	date	for	each	case	for	litigated	packages
NPE	Plaintiff
Litigation	Analysis:	Sold,	All	Litigations	Timing
21
•NPE’s	account	for	vast	majority	of	litigated	cases
•NPE’s	file	quickly,	and	file	multiple	cases
•Half	of	NPE	litigations	filed	within	6	months	of	
sale
•Operating	companies	buy	for	future	risk
•>50%	of	OpCo litigations	are	filed	more	than	18	
months	after	the		sale
For	litigated	sold	packages
Copyright	2016	ROL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cumulative	%	of	OpCo	Litigations
Quarters	from	Sale	Date
OpCo	Plantiff
*	Plaintiffs	were	analyzed,	OpCo’s were	identified;	all	other	entities	are	classified	as	NPE’s	for	this	analysis
50%	of	
Litigations
50%	of	
Litigations
Time
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters
2016	Market	Conclusions
• Asking	prices	have	stabilized,	sales	are	down
• Brokered	market	down	to	$165M	from	$233M	last	year
• New	places	to	buy
• IAM	Market	and	IP3	
Good	time	to	be	a	buyer
• Purchases	by	corporations	have	exceeded	NPE	purchases
• IV	is	down,	unlikely	out
• Reasonable	to	assume	that	remaining	NPE’s	are	more	sophisticated
• Litigation	risk	from	sold	packages	is	much	higher	than	previously	reported	(better	
source	data)
• NPE	litigation	
• Reconsider	your	risk	models
• Reconsider	membership	in	defensive	aggregators
NPE	is	down,	but	new	litigation	data	shows	much	greater	risk
22Copyright	2016	ROL
Business	Sense	• IP	Matters Copyright	2015	ROL 23
BUSINESS	SENSE	•	IP	MATTERS
ROL	Group	has	over	60	years	of	IP	strategy	and	execution	
experience.	We	ask	the	business	questions	first.	We	
blend	in-house	and	large	law	firm	experience	to	create	
clear	steps	for	success.
We	guide	companies	through	unique	IP	challenges—like	
buying	and	selling	patents,	developing	licensing	
programs,	defending	against	patent	assertions,	and	
creating	a	value-driven	IP	portfolio.	We	give	direction	to	
businesses	that	share	our	passion	for	new	ideas,	creative	
problem	solving	and	forward	motion.
Contact	Information:
+1	(650)	967-6555
info@richardsonoliver.com

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