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Arctic Sea Ice and the Ice-Albedo FeedbackHarry Stern, Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle            ...
Arctic Geography
RussiaAlaska  Canada   Greenland
Surface Area of the Earth40           36%     29%3020                      18%                                  14%10     ...
SEA ICE formsfrom freezing saltwater.The surface can besmooth or bumpy.Sea ice can grow to be10 feet thick or more.
ICEBERGS arechunks of glaciers thatbreak off and float away.They are made offreshwater ice (no salt)from many years ofcomp...
January          Monthly average          sea ice concentration          from satellite data          National Snow and Ic...
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
September Arctic Sea Ice Trends, 1979-2011                         Courtesy of NSIDC, Boulder, CO
What is a Feedback?input               output        something              The         happens                    outp   ...
Ice-Albedo Feedback                       warming                                             sea ice                     ...
Ice Growth Feedback                           Positive feedback                                                 Output is ...
Arctic AmplificationLinear surface warming trend in °C per century from NCAR CCSM3averaged from 9 ensemble members using t...
Is Arctic Amplification due to the Ice-Albedo Feedback?   IAF is not the whole story:   • AA occurs even with no IAF (in c...
Tipping Points and Hysteresishttp://www.ronmartin.net/blog/archives/2779                                                  ...
Climate Change, Sea Ice Loss, and Polar Bears in GreenlandKristin Laidre and Harry Stern, University of Washington, Seattl...
Polar bears use sea ice asa platform for hunting sealsPolar bears are found allacross Baffin Bay in winterMovement behavio...
Sea Ice in Baffin Bay, 1979-2011    1982-1991    1992-2001    2002-2011
Changes in Dates of Spring and Fall         as defined by threshold in sea ice area                                       ...
Changes in Dates of Spring and Fall                 as defined by threshold in sea ice area                               ...
Arctic Sea Ice and the Ice-Albedo Feedback
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Arctic Sea Ice and the Ice-Albedo Feedback

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Arctic Sea Ice and the Ice-Albedo Feedback

  1. 1. Arctic Sea Ice and the Ice-Albedo FeedbackHarry Stern, Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle Climate Complexity Workshop 2012 May 9, 2012
  2. 2. Arctic Geography
  3. 3. RussiaAlaska Canada Greenland
  4. 4. Surface Area of the Earth40 36% 29%3020 18% 14%10 3%0 PACIFIC ATLANTIC INDIAN ARCTIC LAND OCEAN OCEAN OCEAN OCEAN
  5. 5. SEA ICE formsfrom freezing saltwater.The surface can besmooth or bumpy.Sea ice can grow to be10 feet thick or more.
  6. 6. ICEBERGS arechunks of glaciers thatbreak off and float away.They are made offreshwater ice (no salt)from many years ofcompressed snowfall.
  7. 7. January Monthly average sea ice concentration from satellite data National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Boulder, CO
  8. 8. February
  9. 9. March
  10. 10. April
  11. 11. May
  12. 12. June
  13. 13. July
  14. 14. August
  15. 15. September
  16. 16. October
  17. 17. November
  18. 18. December
  19. 19. September Arctic Sea Ice Trends, 1979-2011 Courtesy of NSIDC, Boulder, CO
  20. 20. What is a Feedback?input output something The happens outp feed u s ba t to th c e in p k ut feedback loudersound sound amplifier feedback
  21. 21. Ice-Albedo Feedback warming sea ice melts ocean more absorbs ocean more heat exposed Positive feedback: more ice melt leads to more ice melt Also works the other way: less ice melt leads to less ice meltCourtesy Don Perovich, CRREL Operates every summer, with or without global warming Need not lead to “runaway” situation
  22. 22. Ice Growth Feedback Positive feedback Output is enhancedThin ice grows faster than thick ice Negative feedback Output is retarded Ice growth feedback Summer: Warming makes ice thinner Winter: Thin ice grows thicker faster thick ice same thickness thin ice by late winter ? ? positive or negative feedback? ? ? Notz (2009), PNAS, 106, #49, 20590–20595
  23. 23. Arctic AmplificationLinear surface warming trend in °C per century from NCAR CCSM3averaged from 9 ensemble members using the SRES A1B scenariohttp://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/polar-amplification/courtesy of Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington
  24. 24. Is Arctic Amplification due to the Ice-Albedo Feedback? IAF is not the whole story: • AA occurs even with no IAF (in climate models) • AA occurs even on an aqua planet (in models) • Pole-ward heat and moisture transport are factors Area of research… see: Processes and impacts of Arctic Amplification, Serreze and Barry, Global and Planetary Change 2011, 77, 85-96 Steele et al. Overland et al.
  25. 25. Tipping Points and Hysteresishttp://www.ronmartin.net/blog/archives/2779 Tipping Point: Where a small change in a parameter leads to a different equilibrium state Hysteresis: The system follows a different path when the X=0 X=1 X=2 forcing is reversed 2 Final state 0 Initial state
  26. 26. Climate Change, Sea Ice Loss, and Polar Bears in GreenlandKristin Laidre and Harry Stern, University of Washington, Seattle Kristin April 2012Track polar bear movementsMonitor sea ice at bear locationsBear movements  sea ice relation?
  27. 27. Polar bears use sea ice asa platform for hunting sealsPolar bears are found allacross Baffin Bay in winterMovement behavior of adult male andfemale polar bears (Ursus maritimus)during the spring breeding seasonLaidre et al. (2012) submitted
  28. 28. Sea Ice in Baffin Bay, 1979-2011 1982-1991 1992-2001 2002-2011
  29. 29. Changes in Dates of Spring and Fall as defined by threshold in sea ice area Fall transition Length of summer Spring transition Draw best-fit linesTO DO NOW Are there trends?
  30. 30. Changes in Dates of Spring and Fall as defined by threshold in sea ice area +5 days/dec +12 days/dec −7 days/decAlso: Correlation of residuals = −0.64Earlier spring tends to be followed by later fallIce-Albedo feedback??? Other explanations?

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