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Z-Wave Alliance Quarterly Webinar: Black Friday Preview for Smart Home

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What is driving Smart Home consumer acceptance ahead of Black Friday?
Which Smart Home segments are poised to dominate Holiday 2016?
Which Retailers Are Leveraging the Promise of Smart Home to entice Holiday Shoppers?
Argus Insights founder, Dr. John Feland, will walk through his analysis of what is tickling the fancy of consumers in the ramp into Holiday 2016. Using the real time analytics tools available to Z-Wave Alliance members today, John will dive deep as to what experiences consumers seem most excited by for giving the gift of intelligence to their homes and families. Of specific focus will be how Z-Wave is contributing to the growth of the overall market and the delight of consumers.

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Z-Wave Alliance Quarterly Webinar: Black Friday Preview for Smart Home

  1. 1. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute “When Black Friday comes...?” Q416 Z-Wave Alliance Members Only Webinar John Feland, Piled Higher and deeper
  2. 2. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 2Page 2 Q416 Z-Wave Alliance Members Only Webinar Agenda • Introduction from ZWA Executive Director, Mitch Klein • Smart Home Market Analysis • Ramp Towards Black Friday by Product Segment • Year over Year Comparison • UX Trends Driving Adoption • Z-Wave Report Card • Argus Analyzer Person Toolkit • Question & Answer Session
  3. 3. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Let’s Hear It from Mitch
  4. 4. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Global Smart Home Market will reach $100 Billion by 2018 Source: 2014 Strategy Analytics
  5. 5. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Business Extends to Meet Demands What Manufacturers and Service Providers See in a Smart Home: $135m today; $2.5b in 5 yrs. (Frost & Sullivan) $2.2b today; $4.8b 2024 (Navigent Research) $5.8b by 2020; 23% CAGR (Research & Markets) $261m today; $3.6b 2019 (Next Market Insights)
  6. 6. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 6Page 6 What About Actionability?
  7. 7. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 7Page 7 Z-Wave Alliance Announces Partnership with Argus Insights • Member Benefits of this Partnership include: – Quarterly webinar - from Dr. John Feland, Founder and CEO of Argus Insights – Timely, relevant contributions to our monthly newsletter – Argus Analyzer Toolkit - Special Z-Wave Alliance discount for members to this toolkit
  8. 8. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Insight from Dr. John
  9. 9. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 9Page 9 Billions of dollars are wasted every year developing and marketing the wrong products.
  10. 10. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10Page 10 Photo from www.flickr.com/photos/ joaomiguelsilva/
  11. 11. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 11Page 11
  12. 12. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 12Page 12
  13. 13. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 13Page 13
  14. 14. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 14Page 14 “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Research “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008
  15. 15. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 15Page 15 Market Level Analytics Eliminate Brand Blindspots And Inoculate Against Disruption Brand Promises Consumer Aspirations Market Influencers Brand Realities Message Market Fit Product Market Fit Gap Between What Is Expected and What is Delivered Social Media Specific to Target Market (Twitter, Instagram, and more) Consumer Reviews of Devices, Apps and Services (Amazon, Apple App Store, Home Depot and more) Tools and Methods to Measure The Gaps
  16. 16. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 16Page 16 Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of Consumer Demand Eight Weeks Predicting Adjusted R2 = 87.8% p-value = 4.547E-22 23-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13 Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior HandsetUnitSales/Returns
  17. 17. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 17Page 17 Smart Home Narrative is Growing over Last Year 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 45 46 47 48 49 50 2015 SocialMentionsofSmartHomePerWeek Smart Home Social Volume (2015) 45 46 47 Smart Home Social Volume (2016)
  18. 18. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 18Page 18 More Promotions Are Also Driving Social Chatter 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 45 46 47 48 49 50 2015 SocialMentionsofSpecificSmartHomeCategories Black Friday 2015 By Category Baby Monitors Energy Monitors Kits & Hubs Remotes & Controllers Security Camera Sensors Smart Doorbell Smart Lights Smart Lock Smart Thermostat & Detectors 45 46 47 Black Friday 2016 By Category
  19. 19. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 19Page 19 Most Smart Home Categories Are Seeing Increased Demand Over Last Year -28% 62% -18% 72% 211% -19% -8% 43% -7% 34% 38% 26% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% YearOverYearGrowthinConsumerAcceptance Year over Year Demand Coming In To Black Friday 2016 Smart Hubs & Kits Security Cameras Smart Appliances Smart Detectors Smart Doorbell Cameras Smart Lights Smart Locks Smart Security Systems Smart Sensors Smart Switches & Plugs Smart Thermostats Grand Total
  20. 20. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 20Page 20 Demand for Hubs (including Echo) Sliding Ahead of Black Friday
  21. 21. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 21Page 21 Most Categories Are Slowing a Bit Ahead of Black Friday
  22. 22. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 22Page 22 Netgear is Dominating Security Cameras Ahead of Black Friday
  23. 23. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 23Page 23 Philips Hue Continues to Lead a Slowing Lighting Market Ahead of Black Friday
  24. 24. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 24Page 24 As Homes Mature, Smart Sensors Are Seeing Increased Demand
  25. 25. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 25Page 25 Demand for Echo Impacts Hubs and Kits Category Ahead of Black Friday
  26. 26. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 26Page 26 Thermostats Continue Pre Winter Slide Into Black Friday
  27. 27. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 27Page 27 Belkin Continues to Dominate Switches and Plugs While iHome Challenges
  28. 28. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 28Page 28 Smart Sprinkler Controller, Rachio, Is The Most Favored Smart Appliance
  29. 29. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 29Page 29 Nest Protect Is Clear Leader In Smart Alarms Category
  30. 30. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 30Page 30 Ring Continues to Run Circles Around Other Doorbell Camera Providers
  31. 31. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 31Page 31 Schlage Delights While August and Kwikset Frustrate In Smart Locks
  32. 32. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 32Page 32 Service Providers Seen Some Slowing of Engagement Moving into Black Friday
  33. 33. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 33Page 33 Installation Still A Concern Across almost 40K Device Reviews In Last Two Months
  34. 34. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 34Page 34 Connectivity Still Frustrates Even The Happiest Consumers
  35. 35. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 35Page 35 Not All Uses Are Created Equal In The Minds Of Consumers
  36. 36. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 36Page 36 Z-Wave Still Dominating Social Conversation On Smart Home Standards
  37. 37. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Argus Analyzer Personal Toolkit
  38. 38. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 38Page 38 Apple Argus Analyzer Personal Toolkit • Developed for “Jobs To Be Done”* • Vertically Focused on the Smart Home Market * From Clayton Christensen’s “Competing Against Luck” (2016) External News & Dialog Measure the Brand Promise Consumer Reviews Delivery on that Promise General Electric Sigma Designs Connectivity Standards Smart Home Market
  39. 39. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 39Page 39 Argus Analyzer Personal Toolkit • Designed for Actionable Tasks – Competitive Analysis (use it for a SWOT) – Product Launch success (or failure) – Product & Service Definition (customer insight for you and competition) – Business Development (consumer insight about prospects & partners) – Personal Toolkit (zero IT, no designated “admin,” no/minimal training) • Call to Action – Sign up for our weekly newsletter (free subscription) – Stay informed with real-time configurable alerts (Argus Alerts) – Schedule a demo (demo@argusinsights.com) – Z-Wave Alliance Membership special 20% discount (must use this link)
  40. 40. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 40Page 40 Multiple Ways to Engage with Argus Insights and Eliminate Blindspots Professional Services Behavioral Insights Comprehensive Insights Message Market Fit Last 30 days of data Market Level Social Data Access to Raw Mentions Graph Export Month to Month Product Market Fit Last 90 days of Data Market Level Social and Review Data Access to Raw Social and Review Quant Graph Export Quarter to Quarter Product Market Fit All Data Available Market Level Social and Review Data Access to Raw Social and Review Data Graph and Data Export Annual Contract Pragmatic Insights $315/month/user $625/month/user $1200/month/user • Custom projects based on client needs, including persona development, roadmap audits and more • Can be used to support clients until internal teams are proficient with the Argus Analyzer • Build a one time project or set up monthly retainers of support, depending on needs
  41. 41. © 2016 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Questions? http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com Sign up for a free Smart Home newsletter & more at http://argusinsights.com/goodies john.feland@argusinsights.com

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