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A tale of two cities: is air pollution from
traffic improving in Paris and London?
Anna Font1,2*, Lionel Guiseppin3, Marta Blangiardo2,4, Véronique
Ghersi3 and Gary W. Fuller1,2
1 School of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, UK
2MRC PHE Centre for Environment and Health UK
3Observatoire de l’air en Île-de-France, Airparif, France
4 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK
*Corresponding author; anna.font_font@kcl.ac.uk; 150 Stamford Street London SE1 9NH, United Kingdom
November 2018
Introduction
• Paris and London are Europe’s two mega cities
with more than 10 million inhabitants
• We have common problems: both cities exceed
the ELV for NO2 some Paris roads also exceed ELV
for PM10 & both exceed WHO PM2.5 Guideline
• The health impact of long-term exposure to
poor air quality is estimated to be ~55,000 in
France and ~50,000 premature deaths annually
in the United Kingdom (Guerreiro et al., 2016).
Have measures to reduce pollution worked?
2005 20172006
Euro 5 cars &
LGVs: diesel filter
particles
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Phase I & II
LEZ London
Euro 4 cars
& LGVs
Phase III & IV
LEZ London
Euro 6 cars & LGVs:
LNT & SCR
technologies
LEZ
Paris
Definition of emergency measures in
PM episodes Paris Journée sans voiture Paris
Euro V HGVs: diesel
filter particles Euro VI HGVs
Euro IV
HGVs: SCR
technology
?
incNO2
Redefinition
of
emergency
measures in
PM episodes
Paris
Where are policies working best?
Annual means
Methods - trends calculations
• Trends in NOX, NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 at individual monitoring sites in
Paris and London
– Île-de-France: N = 44 sites (30 background, 14 roadside)
– Greater London: N = 130 sites (51 background, 79 roadside)
– 18 million hourly measurements
• Data series with >75% data capture
• Trends in background and roadside concentrations along with
trends in roadside increments (inc)
• Two periods: 2005 – 09; 2010 – 16
• Trends calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator adjusted for
seasonality: trend and 95% confidence interval
• Calculate overall trends using the Random-Effects-Model (meta-
analysis technique) (more weight is given to sites with less
variance)
• Linear mixed effects models also employed.
Methods – traffic data
• Paris: total traffic count only (N = 8 roads)
- Traffic composition (%) only available from AirParif
inventory for 2005, 2010, 2012 and 2014
• London: average annual daily flows from Department
for Transport (DfT) (N = 79 roads)
- Traffic counts available for each vehicle category
• Both: annual share of diesel vehicles by Euro class
Results – Traffic composition
Results – Traffic composition
Paris London
Year 2005 2010 2014 2005 2010 2014
Vehicle class (%)
Motorcycles
6.4 7.4 7.7 3.6 3.4 3.5
Buses & coaches
0.4 0.5 0.6 3.1 3.4 3.3
HGVs
6.6 6.2 5.7 4.8 4.5 5.0
LGVs
15.3 16.0 15.4 12.8 13.3 15.3
Cars & taxis
71.1 69.9 70.6 75.8 75.4 73.0
AADF
(# vehicles/day)
29521 26746 24470 34004 32236 31706
Changes in traffic volumes
Paris London
Pollutant Trends 2005 - 09 Trends 2010 - 16 Trends 2005 - 09 Trends 2010 - 16
Trends
(AADF year-1)
-613.5 ± 70.4** -521.7 ± 62.3*** -564.7 ± 73.1*** -53.9 ± 19.4**
Trends
(% year-1)
-2.1** -1.9*** -2.5*** -0.2**
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05 level; + p < 0.1; (blank) not statistically significant
Results – HGVs
Euro V
LEZ
Euro IV
Euro VI
Euro V
Euro IV
Euro VI
Results – Diesel cars
Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 6Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 6
Isolating the roadside contribution
Results -
Trends in
roadside
increm.
Results -
Trends in
roadside
increm.
Discussion – linear mixed effects
models
Discussion: on-road
emissions
(London & Gothenburg)
Carslaw et al., 2017
diesel passenger cars
HGVs
-90%
Sjödinetal,2017
PM10
Discussion: on-road emissions (Gothenburg)
NOX, NO2
Sjödinetal,2017
2005 – 09
2010 – 16
2005 – 09
HGVs
2010 – 16
Discussion
Long-way from achieving the
European Limit Value for NO2:
20 years (Paris) and 193 years
(London)
Roads with faster downward
trends in 2010-16 in NO2 in
London were those with the
highest annual mean NO2
concentration (CD9, LB4, WA7
and WA8)
Some roads in London had
increasing roadside
increments in NO2. Policies
not working there! Many of
these are in outer London.
Some roads an increase
inPM10 (& PM2.5, which is a
change from the 2010-2014
analysis by Font and Fuller
(2016)).
Conclusions
• First inter-city comparison of this type
• The London LEZ induced a fast replacement of
Euro II & III HGVs with new vehicles fitted with
diesel particle filters
• London showed a downward trend in incPM10
from 2010 that was twice that in Paris
• Looks like a growth in motorcycles (11 % y-1
since 2010) year in London in is affecting
roadside NO2 and PM2.5
Conclusions
• Trends in incNO2 in both Paris and London followed the same pattern with
an increase in 2005-09 followed by significant decrease in 2010-16 at ~5%
year-1
• In 2010-16 London had roads with increasing incNO2 . These require
further investigation
• The decrease in road NO2 was related to the replacement of older
vehicles with Euro V HGV
• Despite NO2 decreasing, at current rates roads will need 20 (Paris) and 193
years (London) to achieve the limit value
• It is a mistake to focus on limit value attainment instead of direction and
rate of change.
• The success of current and future policies relies on the real-world
emissions of new vehicles being less that the ones they replace. Vehicle
manufacturers have the responsibility to ensure that real-world emissions
match with test cycle.
A tale of two cities: Are policies improving air pollution in Paris and London? - Dr Gary Fuller
Motorbikes?
Thank you
Contact details:
Anna Font: anna.font_font@kcl.ac.uk
Gary W. Fuller: gary.fuller@kcl.ac.uk
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.040

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A tale of two cities: Are policies improving air pollution in Paris and London? - Dr Gary Fuller

  • 1. A tale of two cities: is air pollution from traffic improving in Paris and London? Anna Font1,2*, Lionel Guiseppin3, Marta Blangiardo2,4, Véronique Ghersi3 and Gary W. Fuller1,2 1 School of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, UK 2MRC PHE Centre for Environment and Health UK 3Observatoire de l’air en Île-de-France, Airparif, France 4 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK *Corresponding author; anna.font_font@kcl.ac.uk; 150 Stamford Street London SE1 9NH, United Kingdom November 2018
  • 2. Introduction • Paris and London are Europe’s two mega cities with more than 10 million inhabitants • We have common problems: both cities exceed the ELV for NO2 some Paris roads also exceed ELV for PM10 & both exceed WHO PM2.5 Guideline • The health impact of long-term exposure to poor air quality is estimated to be ~55,000 in France and ~50,000 premature deaths annually in the United Kingdom (Guerreiro et al., 2016).
  • 3. Have measures to reduce pollution worked? 2005 20172006 Euro 5 cars & LGVs: diesel filter particles 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Phase I & II LEZ London Euro 4 cars & LGVs Phase III & IV LEZ London Euro 6 cars & LGVs: LNT & SCR technologies LEZ Paris Definition of emergency measures in PM episodes Paris Journée sans voiture Paris Euro V HGVs: diesel filter particles Euro VI HGVs Euro IV HGVs: SCR technology ? incNO2 Redefinition of emergency measures in PM episodes Paris
  • 4. Where are policies working best?
  • 6. Methods - trends calculations • Trends in NOX, NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 at individual monitoring sites in Paris and London – Île-de-France: N = 44 sites (30 background, 14 roadside) – Greater London: N = 130 sites (51 background, 79 roadside) – 18 million hourly measurements • Data series with >75% data capture • Trends in background and roadside concentrations along with trends in roadside increments (inc) • Two periods: 2005 – 09; 2010 – 16 • Trends calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator adjusted for seasonality: trend and 95% confidence interval • Calculate overall trends using the Random-Effects-Model (meta- analysis technique) (more weight is given to sites with less variance) • Linear mixed effects models also employed.
  • 7. Methods – traffic data • Paris: total traffic count only (N = 8 roads) - Traffic composition (%) only available from AirParif inventory for 2005, 2010, 2012 and 2014 • London: average annual daily flows from Department for Transport (DfT) (N = 79 roads) - Traffic counts available for each vehicle category • Both: annual share of diesel vehicles by Euro class
  • 8. Results – Traffic composition
  • 9. Results – Traffic composition Paris London Year 2005 2010 2014 2005 2010 2014 Vehicle class (%) Motorcycles 6.4 7.4 7.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 Buses & coaches 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 HGVs 6.6 6.2 5.7 4.8 4.5 5.0 LGVs 15.3 16.0 15.4 12.8 13.3 15.3 Cars & taxis 71.1 69.9 70.6 75.8 75.4 73.0 AADF (# vehicles/day) 29521 26746 24470 34004 32236 31706
  • 10. Changes in traffic volumes Paris London Pollutant Trends 2005 - 09 Trends 2010 - 16 Trends 2005 - 09 Trends 2010 - 16 Trends (AADF year-1) -613.5 ± 70.4** -521.7 ± 62.3*** -564.7 ± 73.1*** -53.9 ± 19.4** Trends (% year-1) -2.1** -1.9*** -2.5*** -0.2** *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05 level; + p < 0.1; (blank) not statistically significant
  • 11. Results – HGVs Euro V LEZ Euro IV Euro VI Euro V Euro IV Euro VI
  • 12. Results – Diesel cars Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 6Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 6
  • 13. Isolating the roadside contribution
  • 16. Discussion – linear mixed effects models
  • 17. Discussion: on-road emissions (London & Gothenburg) Carslaw et al., 2017 diesel passenger cars HGVs -90% Sjödinetal,2017 PM10
  • 18. Discussion: on-road emissions (Gothenburg) NOX, NO2 Sjödinetal,2017 2005 – 09 2010 – 16 2005 – 09 HGVs 2010 – 16
  • 19. Discussion Long-way from achieving the European Limit Value for NO2: 20 years (Paris) and 193 years (London) Roads with faster downward trends in 2010-16 in NO2 in London were those with the highest annual mean NO2 concentration (CD9, LB4, WA7 and WA8) Some roads in London had increasing roadside increments in NO2. Policies not working there! Many of these are in outer London. Some roads an increase inPM10 (& PM2.5, which is a change from the 2010-2014 analysis by Font and Fuller (2016)).
  • 20. Conclusions • First inter-city comparison of this type • The London LEZ induced a fast replacement of Euro II & III HGVs with new vehicles fitted with diesel particle filters • London showed a downward trend in incPM10 from 2010 that was twice that in Paris • Looks like a growth in motorcycles (11 % y-1 since 2010) year in London in is affecting roadside NO2 and PM2.5
  • 21. Conclusions • Trends in incNO2 in both Paris and London followed the same pattern with an increase in 2005-09 followed by significant decrease in 2010-16 at ~5% year-1 • In 2010-16 London had roads with increasing incNO2 . These require further investigation • The decrease in road NO2 was related to the replacement of older vehicles with Euro V HGV • Despite NO2 decreasing, at current rates roads will need 20 (Paris) and 193 years (London) to achieve the limit value • It is a mistake to focus on limit value attainment instead of direction and rate of change. • The success of current and future policies relies on the real-world emissions of new vehicles being less that the ones they replace. Vehicle manufacturers have the responsibility to ensure that real-world emissions match with test cycle.
  • 24. Thank you Contact details: Anna Font: anna.font_font@kcl.ac.uk Gary W. Fuller: gary.fuller@kcl.ac.uk https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.040