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Critical Thinking


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M&A School
ZEO University/AVentures Capital

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Critical Thinking

  1. 1. 18 FEB 2017 Critical Thinking
  2. 2. The process we use to reflect on, assess and judge the assumptions underlying our own and others ideas and efforts. Critical Thinking
  3. 3. • The Argument • The Conclusion • The Evidence • The Assumption • The Inference • Fallacies in logic MAIN NOTIONS OF CRITICAL REASONING
  4. 4. MAIN NOTIONS OF CRITICAL REASONING ConclusionEvidence Argument since because for as due to hence so thus therefore consequently eventually should leads to
  5. 5. IDENTIFY EVIDENCEAND CONCLUSION 1. Mary has excellent marks at school. Therefore, she has good chances to enter a university. 2. The new manufacturing process must be more efficient than the previous one since the company profits have increased significantly. 3. Time management has always been crucial to top-level managers. According to the recent survey, 9 out of 10 top executive managers attribute their success to their timing strategies. 4. The recent terroristic attack in Livonia has showed that terrorists can hack virtually any computer protection system. We should protect our borders more thoroughly. 5. Photography is no longer an art form. Nowadays everyone has access to digital cameras that only need to be pointed at the subject in order to generate a perfect image.
  6. 6. ASSUMPTION ConclusionEvidence Argument So, what is an ASSUMPTION? … or rather where is it? assumption
  7. 7. ASSUMPTION Assumption is an underlying premise that invalidates the conclusion of the argument. It is an obligatory condition that must be thought of by the speaker before he reaches conclusion. 1. assumption is NOT stated within the argument 2. Evidence + Assumption = Conclusion 3. If assumption is negated, conclusion falls apart 4. Assumption is a secondary reason for conclusion 5. Assumption is never a restatement
  8. 8. TRY TO COME UP WITH YOUR OWNASSUMPTIONS 1. The Apple company has no major competitors but Samsung. Interestingly, Apple exports 72% of all its cell phones annually. In contrast, the share of Samsung cell phones that are sold in export market barely reaches 52%. This stands to prove that the number of Apple phones bought by foreign retailers is bigger than that of Samsung. 2. Because no employee wants to be associated with bad news in the eyes of a superior, information about serious problems at lower levels is progressively softened and distorted as it goes up each step in the management hierarchy. The chief executive is, therefore, less well- informed about problems at lower levels than are his or her subordinates at those levels. 3. On Monday, John, who had the flu at the time, took Marissa out to the cinema. In two days, Marissa showed signs of flu. So, if Marissa had not agreed to go to the movie, she would not have become ill.
  9. 9. BRIEF QUESTIONARY 1. What is an argument? 2. What constitutes an argument? 3. Name a synonym for ‘underlying premise’. 4. Where are we supposed to look for assumption? 5. What is the most peculiar feature of an assumption?
  10. 10. BATTLE! 1. Bacteria from food can survive for several days on the surface of plastic cutting boards, but bacteria can penetrate wooden cutting boards almost immediate in leaving the surface free of contamination. Therefore, wooden cutting boards, unlike plastic cutting boards, need not be washed in order to prevent their contaminating by food that is cut on them; wiping them off to remove food debris is sufficient.
 Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
 (A) Washing plastic cutting boards does not remove all bacteria from the surface. 
 (B) Prevention of bacteria contamination is the only respect in which wooden cutting boards are superior to plastic cutting boards. 
 (C) Food that is not already contaminated with bacteria can be contaminated only by being cut on contaminated cutting boards. 
 (D) Bacteria that penetrate into wooden cutting boards do not reemerge on the surface after the cutting boards have been used.
 (E) Washing wooden cutting boards kills bacteria below the surface of the cutting boards.
  11. 11. BATTLE! 2. A factory in China has two options to improve efficiency: adding robotic assembly lines and subcontracting out certain small production goals that could be done more efficiently elsewhere. Adding robotic assembly lines will improve efficiency more than subcontracting some small production goals. Therefore, by adding robotic assembly lines, the factory will be doing the most that can be done to improve efficiency.
 Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
 (A) Adding robotic assembly lines will be more expensive than subcontracting some small production goals.
 (B) The factory has a choice of robotic assembly lines, some of which might be better suited to this factory than others.
 (C) The factory may or may not decide to choose either alternative.
 (D) Efficiency cannot be improved more by using both methods together than by adding robotic assembly lines alone.
 (E) This particular factory is already the third most efficient factory in China.
  12. 12. BATTLE! Neurobiologist Sapolsky from Stanford University used a blowgun to tranquilize baboons in the Kenyan savanna. Once immobile, he could attach radio collars and track the baboon's movement. In one study, whenever a baboon's radio collar slipped off he would put it back on. This would involve another session of immobilizing the baboon with a tranquilizing dart. He noticed that female baboons that were frequently recollared had significantly lower fertility rates than uncollared females. Probably, therefore, some substance in the tranquilizer inhibited fertility.
 Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
 (A)The dose of tranquilizer delivered by a tranquilizer dart was large enough to give the Sapolsky a generous margin of safety.
 (B)The fertility rate of uncollared female baboons had been increasing in the past few decades.
 (C)Any stress that female baboons might have suffered as a result of being immobilized and handled had little or no negative effect on their fertility.
 (D)The male baboons did not lose their collars as often as the female baboons did.
 (E)The tranquilizer used in immobilizing baboons was the same as the tranquilizer used in working with other large mammals.
  13. 13. INFERENCE To infer means to conclude or summarize. An inference is a conclusion deduced from a set of evidences/facts.
  14. 14. IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS • Inference is something that must be true on the basis of the given information; • Mostly, any inference is a sort of restatement; • To easily identify an inference, you should tackle the problem this way: [Evidence], hence [Inference]; • Inference does not usually go beyond the story; • Inference would use vague language.
  15. 15. BATTLE! 1. High levels of fertilizer and pesticides, needed when farmers try to produce high yields of the same crop year after year, pollute water supplies. Experts therefore urge farmers to diversify their crops and to rotate their plantings yearly. To receive governmental price-support benefits for a crop, farmers must have produced that same crop for the past several years.
 The statement above, if true, best support which of the following conclusions?
 A: The rules for governmental support of farm prices work against efforts to reduce water pollution.
 B: The only solution to the problem of water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides is to take farmland out of production.
 C: Farmers can continue to make a profit by rotating diverse crops, thus reducing costs for chemicals, but not by planting the same crop each year.
 D: New farming techniques will be developed to make it possible for farmers to reduce the application of fertilizers and pesticides.
 E: Governmental price supports for farm products are set at levels that are not high enough to allow farmers to get out of debt.
  16. 16. BATTLE! 2. Some planning committee members—those representing the construction industry —have significant financial interests in the committee’s decisions. No one who is on the planning committee lives in the suburbs, although many of them work there.
 If the statements above are true, which one of the following must also be true?
 (A) No persons with significant financial interests in the planning committee’s decisions are not in the construction industry.
 (B) No person who has significant financial interest in the planning committee’s decisions lives in the suburbs.
 (C) Some persons with significant financial interests in the planning committee’s decisions work in the suburbs.
 (D) Some planning committee members who represent the construction industry do not work in the suburbs.
 (E) Some persons with significant financial interests in the planning committee’s decisions do not live in the suburbs.
  17. 17. BATTLE! 3. Shipping Clerk: The five specially ordered shipments sent out last week were sent out on Thursday. Last week, all of the shipments that were sent out on Friday consisted entirely of building supplies, and the shipping department then closed for the weekend. Four shipments were sent to Truax Construction last week, only three of which consisted of building supplies.
 If the shipping clerk’s statements are true, which of the following must also be true?
 A. At least one of the shipments sent to Truax Construction last week was specially ordered.
 B. At least one of last week’s specially ordered shipments did not consist of building supplies.
 C. At least one of the shipments sent to Truax Construction was not sent out on Thursday of last week.
 D. At least one of the shipments that were sent out on Friday of last week was sent to Truax Construction.
 E. At least one of the shipments sent to Truax Construction last week was sent out before Friday.
  18. 18. FALLACIES IN LOGIC A logical fallacy is a flaw in the author’s reasoning. Generally, they distinguish the following logical fallacies: - Generalization; - Invalid cause-effect connection; - Insufficient evidence; - Improper conclusion; - Inaccurate assumption; - Other potential factors overlooked by the author.
  19. 19. WHAT IS ILLOGICALABOUT THE FOLLOWING CASE? Yesterday, Mary went swimming in a cold sea. Today, she is suffering from a fever. Mary must have got sick because of cold sea water.
  20. 20. BATTLE! Homeowners aged 40 to 50 are more likely to purchase ice cream and are more likely to purchase it in larger amounts than are members of any other demographic group. The popular belief that teenagers eat more ice cream than adults must, therefore, be false. The argument is flawed primarily because the author (A) fails to distinguish between purchasing and consuming (B) does not supply information about homeowners in age groups other than 40 to 50 (C) depends on popular belief rather than on documented research findings (D) does not specify the precise amount of ice cream purchased by any demographic group (E) discusses ice cream rather than more nutritious and healthful foods
  21. 21. BATTLE! Countries A and В are in competition to draw tourists to their countries. In Country A, about 2,500 violent crimes are reported per year. In Country B, only about 1,000 violent crimes are reported per year. Trying to draw tourists away from Country A, officials in Country В use these violent crime statistics to claim it has a lower violent crime rate than Country A. Which of the following, if true, would expose the flaw in Country B’s argument that it has the lower violent crime rate? (A) Most violent criminals in Country В are repeat offenders (B) White-collar crime is higher in Country В than in Country A. (C) The population of Country A is twenty times greater than the population of Country B. (D) Country В has fewer tourists than Country A. (E) Country A has a better prison system than Country B.