1.
AGENDA
• The demand for electricity
• Digitalisation
• Renewables
• Nuclear
• CCS
• Global inputs to electricity and energy
• Cost

2.
THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY
• Industrial demand and deindustrialisation
• Active demand management
• Air conditioning
• Household heating
• Transport

3.
ALL FOR A DIGITAL ECONOMY
• Security of supply – robots
• Re-shoring – 3D printing
• Energy Intensive – AI
+ MANY MANY MORE WAYS TO USE MORE AND MORE ENERGY

4.
RENEWABLES
• No such thing as a pure renewable energy supply
• Deforestation – e.g. biomass & biofuels (wood
& pellets; palm oil; wheat…)
• Low density and intermittent
• Need Equivalent Firm Power (EFP) auctions
• Existing renewables cannot solve the problem on their own…..

5.
NUCLEAR
• On an EFP basis probably ahead of offshore wind
• Can be delivered at large scale
BUT:
• Political objection
• Waste and risk issues
• Delivery problems

6.
CCS
• An admission of failure
• Mostly for EOR so far
• Volume issue
BUT
• North Sea is a good place to start

7.
BUYING OUT THE OBJECTIVE –
INTERNATIONAL CREDITS
• Significant increase in electricity imports
• Paying others to reduce emissions
• Problems of counterfactual, especially with forestry

8.
COST
• Lots and lots of lobbying
• Full costs rarely reported
• Offshore wind is the lead PR story
• Cost of marginal vs. average turbines
• Cost of connection
• Cost of intermittency (hourly, daily, seasonally)
• Cost of Energy Review analysis
• Yellow Vests
• Delusions of “cheap” energy and low carbon energy

9.
AND GLOBALLY THE BIG ISSUE IS
COAL
• China 1000 GWs
• China 700 projects on Belt-and-Raid
• South African coal
• Australia Coal
AND MUCH MORE…
• IEA has 25% share of coal in energy in 2040
• Which is more than 40% in 2020 as GDP x 2++ by 2040.