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Climate Action Tracker: Mexico

Methodological insights CAT Mexico analysis (Markus Hagemann). New Climate Institute, Ecofys, PIK, Climate Analytics. June 7, 2015. Bonn, Germany

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Climate Action Tracker: Mexico

  1. 1. Methodological insights CAT Mexico analysis Technical Practitioners’ Workshop on Methodologies for Analyzing Mitigation INDCs, 05/06/0215 Markus Hagemann
  2. 2. Methodology overview - INDC 7/8/2015 2 Aspect INDC quantification Methodological approach - Calculated INDC pathway using baseline and target as provided by submission (22% uncon.; 36% cond.) Data sources - As provided in INDC submission Key assumptions - Focus on GHG emissions targets incl. LULUCF - Black carbon emission assumed to be neglible Results/ key messages CAT - Low baseline - Baseline higher than current policy scenarios - Additional action needed - INDC lower than current policy scenario and requires additional policy measures
  3. 3. Methodology overview – Current policy 7/8/2015 3 Aspect Current policy Methodological approach - Used scenario from 5th NC as basis and added: - PECC - RE target Data sources - 5th national communication (NC5) - PECC - IEA/ SENER (electricity) - RES targets by technology (Mex Gov) Key assumptions - NC5 does not include PECC or RE targets (too old) Results/ key messages CAT - Good planning, limited actions - while Mexico was one of the first countries to pass a climate law, there are only very limited policies implemented
  4. 4. Major methodological issues current policy – PECC • Starting point – PECC 2014 – 2018 consisting of 23 quantified mitigation-relevant measures that lead to a reduction in emissions by 83.2 MtCO2e in 2018 compared to the baseline. • Methodological issue – PECC assumes reduction below baseline without providing a baseline scenario; originally PECC however included a baseline, but was excluded due to inconsistency with other scenarios – Baseline was different from our main source (NC5) – Continuation of PECC after 2018 unclear • CAT solution – Used former PECC scenario to calculate emission reduction below BAU – Applied % wise reduction below BAU for PECC to NC5 – 2030: % wise reductions of PECC continued after 2020 7/8/2015 4
  5. 5. Major methodological issues current policy – RE policy quantification • Starting point – National renewable energy program was put forward in 2014, and includes indicative targets for RE development by technology for the years 2018 (22.81%) and 2024 (24.61%) • Methodological issue – RE program sets our clear targets per technology, however • The status of implementation is highly unclear (talks about it being revised exist) • There are not apparent policies to implement the target • CAT solution - Range for current policy scenario – Upper end: RE development as in Baseline – Lower end: RE targets implemented • 2018 targets will be reached in 2020 • 2024 targets will be reached in 2030 7/8/2015 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2013 2018 2024 EmissionsinMtCO2e/a Emission Mexico energy supply without RE program (BAU) Re program fully implemented
  6. 6. Major methodological issues INDC– Black carbon • Starting point – Mexico states a reduction target including emission from black carbon and GHG emissions • Issue – GHG impact of black carbon emissions is highly questionable • CAT solution – Focused our quantative analysis on GHG target – Tell story around co-benefits of black carbon (e.g. local health impacts) – BUT estimate the net effect of black carbon emission reductions additional to those resulting as co-benefit form reductions in CO2 to be negligible • effects on global warming are likely to be close to zero, not additional and extremely uncertain • no established scientific method to compare the climate benefits of black- carbon reductions to those of CO2 and other greenhouse gases 7/8/2015 6