Presentation by Andrés Rodríguez-Pose G20 Workshop: Financing infrastructure investments for local communities

1. Regions and cities in a post-Covid world
Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
Rome, 4 February 2021 (virtual)

2. The pandemic and its geographic implications
2

3. Covid-19 as a challenge for territories
3
o Covid-19, not the first global pandemic
o But the first to do so in a much more connected, digital and globalised world
oBig cities regarded as the main focus:
o Air connectivity
o International travellers
o Density
oAnd considered by many as facing a turning point
o Is this the death of the large city as we know it?
o Is this an opportunity for a more balanced growth?
o Technological change allowing to delocalise activity (a ‘flat’ world)?
o Smaller, more remote locations offering protection and refuge.

4. Drivers of the pandemic
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o Connectivity
o Density
oPoverty, inequality and crowdedness
o Pollution
o Institutions
o Government responses
o Civic responses

5. But the geography of Covid-19 is very uneven
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6. But the geography of Covid-19 is very uneven
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6

7. But the geography of Covid-19 is very uneven
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8. Poverty, inequality, connectivity?
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As of 13 June 2020.
Source: New York City Health Department. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#download

9. Poverty, inequality, connectivity?
9

10. Poverty, inequality, connectivity?
10
London Madrid

11. Poverty, inequality, connectivity?
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12. The forces of change
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13. The risk of making predictions
oTerritorial impact will depend on:
o Duration of the pandemic
o Economic, social and Political conditions in each territory
o Institutional conditions
o Luck
oMaking predictions is thus risky
oBut these are exceptional circumstances and we must
take risks
13

14. The forces of change
Social scarring Forced social experiment
Changes to maintain social
distance
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15. The transformation
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16. The impact on territories
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17. Macrogeography
17

18. Microgeography
Sustainable transportation
CREATIVE CiTY
18

19. What’s the role for infrastructure investment?
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20. o COVID-19 is not going to solve pre-existing development problems as if
by magic
o It will accelerate pre-existing transformation trends
o With the risk of greater polarisation and discontent
o Hence, development strategies will be more needed than ever
oBut integrated strategies at a territorial level
o With infrastructure investment as one of its pillars
COVID-19 and development
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21. Towards integrated strategies
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ROOTING
ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY
INWARD
INVESTMENT
LABOUR
SKILLS
LOCAL FIRMS
INFRASTRUCTURE
DEPENDENCE
EASY ACCESS BY COMPETITORS
SUBSIDIZING
NON
COMPETITIVE
FIRMS
MIGRATION
BRAIN DRAIN

22. Expo Station, Seville ‘Radial’ motorways, Madrid
Castellón Airport
AVE Toledo-Albacete
July 17, 2015 5:38 pm
Spanish ghost airport costing €1bn attracts offer of just €10,000
Ciudad Real Airport
22

23. From 2000 to 2011, Italy received more than $60 billion
in the European Union financing to underwrite a wide
array of programs, in areas including agriculture and
infrastructure, most of it directed to the south, with
little but a half-completed highway to show for it.
Spain, which was given a little more than US$100
billion, at least built a world-class high-speed rail
network. (Greece received 50 billion, an enormous
amount in per capita terms, also to a clear effect.) Rachel
Donadio, NYT, Oct. 7, 2012
Motorway Salerno-
Reggio Calabria
A1
Motorway
Greece
23

24. o Returns of infrastructure policies
Big or small infrastructure projects
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25. With, perhaps, shifts in emphasis
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Social infrastructure
Transport infrastructure

26. Conclusions
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27. Conclusions
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1. Large cities will not die
o They will be transformed
o The very characteristics that have made cities thrive and weather past pandemics will
remain in operation
o The hierarchy of cities will, most likely, remain in place
o It would be naïve to think that the pandemic alone will address the huge problems of
lagging behind cities and areas and the high inequality within our cities
2. Many of the pre-existing tendencies will be accelerated
o The pandemic will accelerate the retail ‘apocalypse’ of the high street
o Distance working will remove the need for large inner city office space
o That will liberate inner city space for housing
o Suburbs may initially win
o City centres initially lose

28. Conclusions (II)
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1. The pandemic, for all its horrific toll, offers a window of opportunity to
rethink how we promote development, tackle inequality and the discontent
linked to it
o Need for more integrated policies
o More attention for the micro-scale (within regions, across regions)
2. What role for infrastructure? And transport infrastructure?
o Crucial role
o But within integrated territorial development policies
o And more geared towards addressing local bottlenecks than providing large mega-project
o Ensure that this is done in a fairer and more just way.

29. Regions and cities in a post-Covid world
Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
More information at http://personal.lse.ac.uk/rodrigu1/
@rodriguez_pose