Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC

BC Agricultural Climate Adaptation Research Network
Dec. 10, 2019
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC
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Changing Climate, Shifting Crops - Kirsten Hannam AAFC

Editor's Notes

  1. The Okanagan Valley is undergoing major land use changes. A lot of these changes are driven by massive population growth, which is putting increasing pressure on available agricultural land, and water. As well, longer growing seasons, more extreme heat events in the summers, and increasing land prices have been driving producers to plant crops farther north and at higher elevations (this is particularly true for cherries, a high-value export crop that is shipped mainly to the Asian market).
  2. Work completed by Environment Canada (Alex Cannon), using Anusplin data from NRCan, upsampling according to ClimateBC algorithm, and bias-correction as per PCICs Prism climatology.
  3. Below -30 C for > 1 day; > 37C for > 3 days Year round plant growth and development models Tested against threshold damaging temperatures at all stages Empirical models developed from regional survey data and controlled laboratory studies
  4. Climate and land use change alter what we can grow and where Modelling can be used to predict where crops grow best Models using historical data are consistent with observations of shifting sweet cherry cultivation upslope and farther north Models using climate projections suggest crop suitability will become less limited by cold Average output from 20 global climate models under 4.5 and 8.5 rcp Soil and landscape suitability, using high resolution maps (1:20,000): Slope <30%, depth to bedrock >50 cm, not poorly drained, coarse frag < 60%, not saline Climate modelling, using high spatial and temporal resolution gridded dataset Phenology/hardiness modelling, i.e., daily temperature thresholds by phenological stage, e.g., winter dormancy, spring floral development, summer fruit growth, cold hardiness Combined risk assessments by year, and mapped in GIS
  5. - currently available 500m gridded daily Tmin, Tmax, Precip datasets and five models from the CMIP5 ensemble (RCP 4.5, 8.5) downscaled to the same spatial and temporal scales. All datasets available for the whole of BC.
  6. Recently introduced pests relevant to orchard trees in OKV
  7. Below -30 C for > 1 day; > 37C for > 3 days Year round plant growth and development models Tested against threshold damaging temperatures at all stages Empirical models developed from regional survey data and controlled laboratory studies