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1.
Changing climate,
shifting crops
How might climate change affect the crops we grow in
the Okanagan Valley?
Denise Neilsen, Scott Smith, Grace Frank, Istvan Losso (AAFC, retired);
Alex Cannon; Ron Fretwell; Molina Ith-Tek
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2.
Our climate is changing…
0
5
10
15
1916 1936 1956 1976 1996 2016
Annual number of days over
35°C
0
5
10
15
20
25
1916 1936 1956 1976 1996 2016
Annual number of days less
than -20°C
Environment Canada data for Summerland, BC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/greenhouse-gases-
1.5371968
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3.
Climate determines the types
of crops we can grow…
Cartoonstock.com
Cartoonstock.com
Cartoonstock.com
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4.
We can use modelling to help us
anticipate changes in crop
suitability across the landscape…
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5.
1. Suitable sites
Slope <30%
Soil depth > 50 cm
Well-drained
< 60 % stones
Low salinity
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
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6.
1. Suitable sites
Slope <30%
Soil depth > 50 cm
Well-drained
< 60 % stones
Low salinity
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7.
2. Weather data - daily
(500 m resolution)
Minimum
temperature,
December 29th,
1968
Maximum
temperature,
July 30th, 2003
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
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8.
2. Weather data
- Agro-climatic indices
Growing season length
(frost-free period)
0
2800
1200
800
400
2400
2000
1600
Growing degree days
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
-
9.
3. Crop suitability models
SPRING:
Do temperatures get cold enough to damage flower buds?
GROWING SEASON:
Are there enough warm days for the fruit to reach maturity?
Does get hot enough to damage fruit?
AUTUMN & WINTER:
Do temperatures get cool enough to allow trees to complete dormancy
requirements?
Do temperatures get cold enough to damage flower buds?
Do temperatures ever drop below -30 C?
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
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10.
Changing distribution of sweet
cherry suitability
Climate AND soil/landscape suitable
Climate suitable but soil/landscape unsuitable
Unsuitable
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
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11.
But what about crop
suitability into the future?
Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2)
‘Representative concentration pathway’ (RCP) 8.5 (radiative
forcing of 8.5 W m-2)
Used to model past and project future daily temperatures for the
Okanagan Valley
50 ‘realisations’ driven by CanESM2
Each ‘realisation’ begins in 1950, using a randomly generated
‘seed’, and is run until 2100
Daily climate data generated at 500 m2 spatial resolution
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12.
Sweet cherry suitability
– 1950s
Suitable 21-30
times out of 50…
Suitable 0-10 times out of 50…
Suitable 11-20 times out
of 50…
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13.
Suitable 41-50
times out of 50…
Suitable 31-40
times out of 50…
Sweet cherry suitability
– 2000s
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14.
Sweet cherry suitability
– 2050s
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15.
Will fruit be damaged by heat?
Do temperatures drop below -30 C?
Will flower buds be frozen in the
fall/winter?
Is the growing season long enough
for fruit to mature?
Will flowers be frozen in the spring?
Are dormancy requirements met?
What is driving the shift in sweet
cherry suitability?
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16.
Will fruit be damaged by heat?
Do temperatures drop below -30 C?
Will flower buds be frozen in the
fall/winter?
Is the growing season long enough
for fruit to mature?
Will flowers be frozen in the spring?
Are dormancy requirements met?
What is driving the shift in sweet
cherry suitability?
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17.
So… is climate change is good for
agriculture in the Okanagan Valley?
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18.
Insects and pests…
Pest/Disease Hosts
Suspected
Year of
Introduction
into BC
Apple clearwing moth
(Synanthedon myopaeformis)
All tree fruits, mountain ash,
hawthorn
2000
Spotted wing drosophila
(Drosophila suzukii)
Tree fruits and berries 2009
https://www.bctfpg.ca/ifp-organics/invasive-alien-pests/
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19.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Flood
Wildfire
Drought
Extreme events…
www.bclocalnews.com/news/
www.ctvnews.ca/canada
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20.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Bonaparte
Cariboo
Comox
Cowichan
FraserValley
Kettle
Kootenays
Lillooet
Nicola
N.Okanagan
N.Thompson
Okanagan
Pemberton
SalmonRiver
Similkameen
S.Thompson
S.GulfIslands
MLx1000
Historic 1960-2000
Increase due to land use change
Increase due to climate change
Neilsen et al. 2018. Frontiers Environ Sci. Landscape based
agricultural water demand modeling – a tool for water
management decision making in BC, Canada. 1160:207–214
Irrigation water needs…
Indicators of climate change for BC. 2016
update.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environ
ment/climate-change/adaptation/impacts
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21.
Changing climate, shifting
crops…
Climate is changing in the Okanagan
Crop suitability is shifting (sweet cherries)
Modelling suggests that crop suitability will change
dramatically in the next few decades
Cold temperatures expected become less limiting to
fruit production
Fruit production may become limited by other factors
(e.g., heat; pests and disease; smoke; availability of
irrigation water)
What can we do to prepare?
How can we adapt?
Denise Neilsen, Scott Smith, Grace Frank, Istvan Losso (AAFC, retired);
Alex Cannon; Ron Fretwell; Molina Ith-Tek
-
22.
Suitable 41-50
times out of 50…
Suitable 31-40
times out of 50…
Sweet cherry suitability
– 2000s
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23.
3. Crop suitability models
Risk
SPRING:
Do temperatures get cold enough to damage flower buds? >2/10 yr to
>5/10 yr
GROWING SEASON:
Are there enough warm days for the fruit to reach maturity? >3/10 yr
Does get hot enough to damage fruit? >5/10 yr
AUTUMN & WINTER:
Do temperatures get cool enough to allow trees to complete
dormancy requirements?
>3/10 yr
Do temperatures get cold enough to damage flower buds? >4/10 yr
Do temperatures ever drop below -30 C? >0/10 yr
Neilsen et al. 2017. Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex
terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160:207–214
The Okanagan Valley is undergoing major land use changes. A lot of these changes are driven by massive population growth, which is putting increasing pressure on available agricultural land, and water. As well, longer growing seasons, more extreme heat events in the summers, and increasing land prices have been driving producers to plant crops farther north and at higher elevations (this is particularly true for cherries, a high-value export crop that is shipped mainly to the Asian market).
Work completed by Environment Canada (Alex Cannon), using Anusplin data from NRCan, upsampling according to ClimateBC algorithm, and bias-correction as per PCICs Prism climatology.
Below -30 C for > 1 day; > 37C for > 3 days
Year round plant growth and development models
Tested against threshold damaging temperatures at all stages
Empirical models developed from regional survey data and controlled laboratory studies
Climate and land use change alter what we can grow and where
Modelling can be used to predict where crops grow best
Models using historical data are consistent with observations of shifting sweet cherry cultivation upslope and farther north
Models using climate projections suggest crop suitability will become less limited by cold
Average output from 20 global climate models under 4.5 and 8.5 rcp
Soil and landscape suitability, using high resolution maps (1:20,000): Slope <30%, depth to bedrock >50 cm, not poorly drained, coarse frag < 60%, not saline
Climate modelling, using high spatial and temporal resolution gridded dataset
Phenology/hardiness modelling, i.e., daily temperature thresholds by phenological stage, e.g., winter dormancy, spring floral development, summer fruit growth, cold hardiness
Combined risk assessments by year, and mapped in GIS
- currently available 500m gridded daily Tmin, Tmax, Precip datasets and five models from the CMIP5 ensemble (RCP 4.5, 8.5) downscaled to the same spatial and temporal scales. All datasets available for the whole of BC.
Recently introduced pests relevant to orchard trees in OKV
Below -30 C for > 1 day; > 37C for > 3 days
Year round plant growth and development models
Tested against threshold damaging temperatures at all stages
Empirical models developed from regional survey data and controlled laboratory studies