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Oslo: State of the city 2017 - Greg Clark

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Oslo: State of the city 2017
Greg Clark presentation

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Oslo: State of the city 2017 - Greg Clark

  1. 1. The BUSINESS of CITIES Prof Greg Clark CBE Chairman April 2017 Oslo: State of the City 2017 Oslo The BUSINESS of CITIES
  2. 2. The BUSINESS of CITIES An ‘outside in’ report: how we do it 3. Latest data sources (Brookings, Crunchbase, Eurostat, OECD, Oxford Economics, WCCD, etc.) 2 1. 300 Indices globally (Oslo is measured in >80 of them) 2. Comparative reports, studies and research Oslo is a young, dynamic, and fast developing city. We compare Oslo with established, emerging and other fast developing cities. Oslo’s peers: not just Nordic Cities or Capital Cities HQoL and NWCs such as Tel Aviv, Auckland, Santiago, San Diego, Denver….
  3. 3. The BUSINESS of CITIES 3
  4. 4. The BUSINESS of CITIES What we learnt from the 2016 State of the City  Oslo is emerging into a distinctive and attractive international location for firms, investors + talent.  Oslo is admired for its quality of life, government and stability, but its its visibility in comparisons of successful and ‘up-and-coming’ cities is below where it could be.  Oslo has not yet converted its educational and knowledge strengths into a recognised innovation platform.  Oslo has some real and perceived areas of under-performance relative to other established and higher-income cities worldwide. 4
  5. 5. The BUSINESS of CITIES The Oslo Region is the most dynamic in the Nordics 5 Population change in leading Nordic regions Region performance (Source: Nordregio)
  6. 6. The BUSINESS of CITIES Business and investment fundamentals are good 1st in the world in 2017 JLL Investment Intensity Index Big climbs as a financial centre – now top 25 globally (GFCI) 8th of 41 cities for broadband maturity, ICT costs, and modern tech. Educational attainment + job market inclusion has improved from an already high level. 6
  7. 7. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s progress in innovation 7 Amsterdam Zurich Copenhagen Helsinki Stockholm Bristol Hamburg Madrid Barcelona Munich Prague Lisbon Cologne Manchester Vienna Brussels Gothenburg Rotterdam Warsaw Glasgow Milan Istanbul Lyon Frankfurt Marseille Rome Stuttgart OSLO -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Numberofglobaltop10,000innovationfirms Number of Innovation firms Valencia Dublin London Berlin Paris 0 100 200 300 0 10000 Oslo is at the head of the 2nd wave of high innovation cities Among global top 30 Rapid growth in VC funding Source: Crunchbase, March 2017
  8. 8. The BUSINESS of CITIES Becoming a leading mid-sized region for innovation 8 Source: Dealroom, March 2017 1 of the top 10 most innovation-intense regions in Europe, ahead of Barcelona, Paris, Vienna and Lisbon. Fueled by city’s strengths in infrastructure, energy, data and smart city applications.
  9. 9. The BUSINESS of CITIES Raising Oslo’s innovation profile is a priority Just 23rd in Europe in terms of entrepreneur reputation. Not included in some key innovation and digital cities indexes Promotion will be an essential piece of Oslo’s innovation jigsaw. The role of districts to foster the character, diversity, critical mass, visibility to communicate the story. 9 Start-up Genome Top 20 Ecosystems – Berlin + Stockholm are in. CITIE – Oslo not included but 20 European cities measured BCG Global Innovation Index Dubai Chamber Innovation Index Nesta European Digital Cities Index
  10. 10. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s quality of life offer • Oslo is performing more strongly in indexes that reflect perceptions of urban lifestyles. • Why? (proximity to nature, diverse architecture, waterfront development, culinary offer, ‘hip’ neighbourhoods) • Rated one of the least at-risk cities in the world thanks to low levels of inequality and exposure to natural disasters. • Excellence in pollution and CO2 emissions confirmed (Numbeo, IESE) • 4th of 50 global cities for climate change leadership, markets and investment • Inflation and unaffordability (housing, living costs) risks overshadowing its reputation for positive work-life balance. 10
  11. 11. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s social and environmental model is a big advantage 11 he top of social and environmental sments. Source: IESE. Abu Dhabi San Francisco BostonTel Aviv Warsaw Barcelona Marseille Manchester Lyon Montreal Glasgow Eindhoven Vancouver Sydney Melbourne Dublin Stuttgart Copenhagen Berlin Hamburg Frankfurt Oslo Stockholm Vienna 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 SocialCohesionPosition Environmental Sustainability Position More socially sustainable More environmentally sustainable Global pioneers ource: Arcadis Source: Arcadis
  12. 12. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s Hospitality performance Openness and welcome vital to underpin Oslo’s advantages and ambitions. But many other cities also competing in this space. Limited awareness of the city’s amenities, character, and identity. Stereotypes pervade. (‘cold climate’, ‘non-membership of EU’, ‘gas and oil-led economy’, ‘high cost’, ‘closed shop’, etc) But Hospitality is the area that has improved most since this 2015… 12
  13. 13. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s improving performance and perception for hospitality 13 Change in international arrivals since 2012 Twice rated among top 30 most inspiring cities. 46th of 100 cities for city brand. (Resonance) 43rd of 100 in the Global Sport Cities Index. Appeal to international students improved from 60th to 53rd (QS) Top city in the Intercultural Cities Index Oslo’s hospitality to long-distance tourists, HNWIs, foreign students, congress attendees and others is improving
  14. 14. The BUSINESS of CITIES Hospitality: implications for Oslo Oslo’s dynamic progress and improvements are clear, but would be more visible if not for intense global competition, and perceived barriers around Nordic identity and lifestyle Strategies that make sense for Oslo: 1) Play the ‘long game’ for Oslo’s reputation to catch up – accelerate when opportunities arise. 2) Target the audiences that matter is more useful than improving general perceptions. 3) Celebration and revelation of new assets and dimensions to the city’s identity are key. 4) Developing the City of Peace identity and narrative more directly will support Oslo’s ambitions in relation to open-ness and welcome. 14
  15. 15. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s governance in the indexes Oslo - 5th most equal city among all of its peers in a new major index (FRAGAPE) 16th of 181 cities for social cohesion (IESE) Remains one of the most socially inclusive cities in Europe (Eurostat) Strong scores on institutional effectiveness (EIU, WEF) Despite its role in international diplomacy, lacks presence in measures of political influence. 15 Oslo has among the most equal GINI coefficients among its peer group. Source: IGARAPE
  16. 16. The BUSINESS of CITIES 16 Summary
  17. 17. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s spidergram 17 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Business-friendliness Productivity Innovation Competencies and knowledge Leisure and recreation Personal safety Sustainability and resilience Work-life balance Attractiveness to visitors Attractiveness to talent Friendliness Welcoming to foreigners Social stability Quality and integrity Transparency and reliability Influence and status 2015 performance 2017 perception ersion 2017 performance
  18. 18. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s spidergram 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Business-friendliness Productivity Innovation Competencies and knowledge Leisure and recreation Personal safety Sustainability and resilience Work-life balance Attractiveness to visitors Attractiveness to talent Friendliness Welcoming to foreigners Social stability Quality and integrity Transparency and reliability Influence and status 2015 performance 2017 perception ersion 2017 performanceAreas of improvement
  19. 19. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo’s spidergram 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Business-friendliness Productivity Innovation Competencies and knowledge Leisure and recreation Personal safety Sustainability and resilience Work-life balance Attractiveness to visitors Attractiveness to talent Friendliness Welcoming to foreigners Social stability Quality and integrity Transparency and reliability Influence and status 2015 performance 2017 perception ersion 2017 performanceAreas of decline
  20. 20. The BUSINESS of CITIES What explains some points of negative change? – Oslo has fallen on some governance measures that assess e-government adoption and municipal department innovation. There is also a bias against cities with high tax rates in some measures. – Oslo has slightly fallen in measures of talent because indices increasingly measure the size of the talent pool rather than quality or specialization – Air pollution and emissions performance is still good but not quite as top performing as 3 years ago. Growing competition, scale/size issues, and index biases. These are not issues that can easily be corrected, they need to be balanced. 20
  21. 21. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo: the good news Oslo is:  Improving its position and visibility despite the depth of competition.  Enjoying a successful cycle of attracting capital in real estate, infrastructure and ideas.  Becoming an internationally important location for entrepreneurship and innovation.  Performing more strongly for urban lifestyle, aesthetics and natural environment.  Gaining more recognition for its sustainability, green economy, integration, work-life balance and egalitarianism  Improving its relative connectivity and two-way traffic of tourists + talent  Still world class in terms of infrastructure and technology 21
  22. 22. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo: a leading Peace City 20 years ago Oslo’s position of THE City of Peace was assured. Other cities are building their identities around peace… • Auckland • Bogota • Geneva • The Hague • Louisville (USA) • Nairobi • Vienna And also New York, Amsterdam, Miami, Mexico City, Bradford, Belfast, Tel Aviv, Istanbul, Havana, Cape Town, Singapore, Atlanta and Kyoto. Oslo has Noble Peace Prize – deep in the DNA of Oslo and Norway Other cities have Martin Luther King, The Dalai Lama, Nelson Mandela, Ghandi, The International Courts of Justice, UN, WB, etc 22
  23. 23. The BUSINESS of CITIES What are other cities doing? • Positioning itself as the leading city for peace, conflict management and (cyber)security • ‘City of Peace and Justice’ brand since 2006, combined with ‘City by the Sea’. • Focus on conferences, negotiations, diplomacy training • Developing ‘International Zone’ and peace innovation hub. • Reconnecting with city’s DNA of hospitality, inclusion and caring values • Partnership for a Compassionate Louisville • The International Center for Compassionate Cities – index to measure compassion • Events: ‘Give-A-Day’ Week, International Compassion Games • Compassionate Schools Project - 25 schools 23 The Hague Louisville (USA)
  24. 24. The BUSINESS of CITIES Innovations and approaches in other Peace Cities • Others quickly gaining international profile • Leveraging peace into wider strategic agendas • Risks and opportunities for Oslo. 24
  25. 25. The BUSINESS of CITIES Some important choices for Oslo How far to support and reinforce the Oslo ‘Peace’ brand and values? Is enough being done? What are the risks? Disposition towards other Peace Cities? Is Oslo a leader, a team player, a competitor? Optimum leverage of Nobel Peace Prize? Is there greater potential? Linkages between Peace and other Oslo’s values proposition? 25
  26. 26. The BUSINESS of CITIES Oslo: the next imperatives 1. Oslo suffers from an index bias towards larger cities, and needs of expats rather than residents or entrepreneurs. Overcoming this bias is essential. Identity and scale in specialised sectors matters. Keep going. 2. Oslo’s reputation for innovation lags behind the real scale and potential of its innovation system. Communication of Oslo’s innovation story is a priority. Accelerate. 3. Growing externalities of success – eg. congestion, unaffordability. These are a risk to Oslo’s status as a young, compact, forward-thinking city. Investment in infrastructure needs to be well communicated, and future growth management needs to be confident. eg regional growth centres, enough jobs of growing population, densification etc. Credible growth planning. 4. Oslo’s association with hospitality and openness has room to improve - by targeting key audiences, revealing new edges, and leveraging its identity as a city of peace, reconciliation, tolerance and fairness. Open City. 5. Peace is a genuine USP and a key part of the DNA. Peace is brand. How to build that? Leadership agenda. . 26

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