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The Deep Decarbonization Pathways
Project (DDPP)
Laura SEGAFREDO (SDSN)
Henri WAISMAN (IDDRI)
Technical Practitioners’ Wor...
Research questions
 The long-term transformation towards decarbonized energy system
 hierarchy and sequencing of short-t...
Methodology (1/3)
 National-scale analysis performed by country teams
expertise on technical,
socio-economic aspects
& p...
Methodology (2/3)
 Backcasting from 2050
«anchor» per capita emission level of 1.7tCO2 as guiding
estimate (≠ ex-ante al...
Methodology (3/3)
 Transparent, detailed and structured representation of emission
drivers, from activity levels to emiss...
Data sources
12/9/14 6
 International sources
Technical benchmarks at sectoral level : IPCC
Visions of global energy ma...
Key assumptions
12/9/14 7
 International cooperation to make national transition possible and
affordable
 Availability o...
Challenges/limitations
12/9/14 8
 The 2°C limit
 Consistency between country stories (≠ harmonization)
 Macrocoeconomic...
DDPs and INDCs
12/9/14 9
 No optimization of the trajectory  no direct comparison btw
INDC and 2030 milestone of DDPs
 ...
www.deepdecarbonization.org
DD is feasible in all contexts
 Important reductions
2050/2010
o -45% in absolute
o -56% per capita
o -88% per unit of GD...
DD requires strong action
on all technical pillars
The 3 pillars of decarbonization
 Energy efficiency and energy
conserv...
DD means deep substitution of fossil fuels
by a mix of low-carbon options
DD is compatible with continued
economic growth and development
Beyond techniques: structural change and
development styles
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The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

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The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

  1. 1. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Laura SEGAFREDO (SDSN) Henri WAISMAN (IDDRI) Technical Practitioners’ Workshop on Methodologies for Analyzing Mitigation INDCs Session: Quantifying current and future low-carbon trajectories
  2. 2. Research questions  The long-term transformation towards decarbonized energy system  hierarchy and sequencing of short-term measures  multiple pathways  Problem-solving analysis the HOW question enabling conditions  Synergies btw decarbonization and socio-economic development priorities
  3. 3. Methodology (1/3)  National-scale analysis performed by country teams expertise on technical, socio-economic aspects & political economy
  4. 4. Methodology (2/3)  Backcasting from 2050 «anchor» per capita emission level of 1.7tCO2 as guiding estimate (≠ ex-ante allocation) Iterative approach by discussing building blocks of transformations Benchmarking + learning process across countries
  5. 5. Methodology (3/3)  Transparent, detailed and structured representation of emission drivers, from activity levels to emissions, decomposed o By sector (demand & supply) o Along the three « pillars » of decarbonization • Energy efficiency (technical efficiency & energy conservation) • Decarbonization of energy carriers • Fuel switching to low-carbon energy carriers  Dashboard as common reporting template
  6. 6. Data sources 12/9/14 6  International sources Technical benchmarks at sectoral level : IPCC Visions of global energy markets : IEA (2DS) Cost assumptions for certain technologies : IEA  National sources Energy flows Growth Policies
  7. 7. Key assumptions 12/9/14 7  International cooperation to make national transition possible and affordable  Availability of a broad portfolio of low-carbon technologies  Technical potentials assessed at country-level
  8. 8. Challenges/limitations 12/9/14 8  The 2°C limit  Consistency between country stories (≠ harmonization)  Macrocoeconomic assessment  Policy frameworks
  9. 9. DDPs and INDCs 12/9/14 9  No optimization of the trajectory  no direct comparison btw INDC and 2030 milestone of DDPs  Long-term backcasting  thinking short-term decisions from INDC in function of the long-term transformation  An expert-based approach that can be “owned” by different groups of stakeholders  help to structure national debates to increase ambition of INDC after COP-21  A transparent method favor exchange of information across countries to identify areas for collaboration included in future INDC
  10. 10. www.deepdecarbonization.org
  11. 11. DD is feasible in all contexts  Important reductions 2050/2010 o -45% in absolute o -56% per capita o -88% per unit of GDP  … but not enough for the 2°C target CO2 Emissions (Gt) IPCC estimates (world) 15 DDPs Cumul 2010-2050 825 792
  12. 12. DD requires strong action on all technical pillars The 3 pillars of decarbonization  Energy efficiency and energy conservation  Decarbonization of energy supply (electricity, fuels)  Fuel switching towards low- carbon energies
  13. 13. DD means deep substitution of fossil fuels by a mix of low-carbon options
  14. 14. DD is compatible with continued economic growth and development
  15. 15. Beyond techniques: structural change and development styles

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