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The Emissions Gap Report 2015: INDC assessment

Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute. INDCs: Working to Bridge the Gap towards an international Climate response. 5 June 2015, Bonn. Germany.

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The Emissions Gap Report 2015: INDC assessment

  1. 1. Side event INDCs: Working to Bridge the Gap towards an international Climate response Friday 5 June 2015 Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute, n.hoehne@newclimate.org The Emissions Gap Report 2015: INDC assessment
  2. 2. Progress of INDC preparation worldwide  10 submissions received  Up to at least 80 submissions by October Source: http://files.newclimate.org/indc-preparation-progress/
  3. 3. Approach to INDC assessment What is the global emission level as a result of the INDCs?  Assessment of literature on INDCs from global models and national scenarios  Undertake a review of the results, including reaching out to individual countries in a pilot phase  Regular updates: e.g. September, November, January  Core group of experts: Amit Garg (India), Fu Sha (China), Taryn Fransen (US), Roberto Schaeffer (Brazil), Harald Winkler (South Africa), Michel den Elzen (Netherlands), Niklas Höhne (Germany)
  4. 4. Methodological challenges  Differences in reporting: Reported historical data differs slightly between inventory and projections  Forestry: estimates for LULUCF and exact accounting rules are not always known  Missing estimates: Inter- and extrapolation is necessary where 2025 and 2030 were not provided, timing but not level of peak provided  GWPs: Emissions are reported in GWP from SAR and AR4, historical emissions and projections may not match  Market mechanisms: extent of intended use of market mechanisms is often not reported, potential double counting  Missing information on countries/sectors: for global aggregation, information on all countries and sectors is necessary
  5. 5. 2014 UNEP gap report Business as usual of 2014 report Extrapolated pledges 2°C range
  6. 6. Possible outcome 2015 Business as usual of 2014 report Current trajectory Current trajectory augmented with submitted INDCs Illustrative Not real data 2°C range
  7. 7. Country by country data collection • Official estimates by the country (INDC and other reports) • Information from independent estimates (national studies and global models) as comparison • Current trajectory and emissions implied by the INDC • Review of the data by the country
  8. 8. Example input to UNEP gap report: ESRC / Grantham be responsible for 39% of annual global emissions, if China’s emissions peak in 2030, or 37% if they peak in 2025. Overall, global annual emissions rise from 48.5 Gt CO2e in 2010 to between 57 and 59 Gt CO2e in 2030, depending on when China’s emissions peak (Table 3). Table 3: Annual emissions to 2030 Emitter Annual emissions (Gt CO2e) 2010 2030 (China’s emissions peak in 2025) 2030 (China’s emissions peak in 2030) Total country emissions 47.4 56.2 57.7 …international bunkers 1.1 1.3 1.3 Total global emissions 48.5 57.6 59.0 Total (EU-US-China) 21.1 20.9 22.3 …share of total (excluding bunkers) 45% 37% 39% Total (Rest of the world) 26.2 35.4 35.4 …share of total (excluding bunkers) 55% 63% 61% *Note: columns and rows may not add up due to rounding. Source: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/what-will-global-annual-emissions-of- greenhouse-gases-be-in-2030-and-will-they-be-consistent-with-avoiding-global-warming-of-more- than-2c/
  9. 9. Example input to UNEP gap report: PBL Source: http://infographics.pbl.nl/indc/
  10. 10. Example input to UNEP gap report: Climate Action Tracker Source: www.climateactiontracker.org
  11. 11. Side event INDCs: Working to Bridge the Gap towards an international Climate response Friday 5 June 2015 Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute, n.hoehne@newclimate.org The Emissions Gap Report 2015: INDC assessment

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