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SciFi meets Reality: Tech Trends for Marketers Amy Webb Keynote

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Amy Webb, Morning Keynote

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SciFi meets Reality: Tech Trends for Marketers Amy Webb Keynote

  1. 1. October 2016 – Minneapolis MIMA Sci-Fi Meets Reality: Tech Trends For Marketers
  2. 2. README This is the full presentation deck for Amy Webb’s Sci-Fi Meets Reality Tech Trends presentation at the 2016 MIMA Summit. This year, Amy’s presentation included the participation of some live bots. You’ll see one of them in this presentation, but they may no longer be live by the time you try using them.
  3. 3. 3Thank You!
  4. 4. Me: 3 Things 1 2 Futurist – Technology, Media and Society Founder of the Future Today Institute. We answer “What’s the Future of X” for Fortune 500 + Global 1000 companies, universities, government agencies, large foundations, media companies. Adjunct Prof. @ NYU Stern School - Marketing Department. 3 It’s My Birthday! I brought presents for you... Social Handles #MIMASummit –– @amywebb on Twitter –– @FuturistAmyWebb on FB
  5. 5. YOU: 3 Things 1 2 I’ve created a Dropbox folder with the presentation and a bunch of resources you can download and share with your colleagues. 3 I have a special surprise guest joining me today. You can interact with them during the presentation. Things are going to get weird. Make sure your devices are out >> Twitter, Facebook
  6. 6. TRUE CRIME
  7. 7. A media executive pitched me a new strategy for the future of news. This was our exchange:
  8. 8. Exec: “We’re going to be the Uber for news.” Me: (Confused) Exec: “Three years from now, we’ll have an on-demand news platform for Millennials. They tap a button on their phones and they get the news delivered right to them, wherever they are. This is the future of news!” Me: “Is it an app?” Exec: “Maybe. The point is that you get the news right away, when you want it, wherever you are.” Me: “So you mean an app.” Exec: “Yes!” But more like Uber.”
  9. 9. There were TWO crimes committed that day.
  10. 10. Crime #1: The executive mistook a thriving platform for an “Uber for X” tech trend.
  11. 11. 1. A trend is driven by a basic human need, one that is catalyzed by new technology. 2. A trend is timely, but it persists. 3. A trend evolves as it emerges. 4. A trend can materialize as a series of un-connectable dots which begin out on the fringe and move to the mainstream. What is a real trend?
  12. 12. Trends come from these 10 sources of change.
  13. 13. Every marketer must pay attention to the future of media. Which means following emerging trends. Trends are signposts that can be tracked as they move from the fringe to the mainstream.
  14. 14. Future Today Institute’s Process data > pattern recognition > modeling > interrogating > mapping > scenarios > strategy > pressure-testing
  15. 15. Crime #2: The executive was blinded by Uber’s success and wanted to copy it. So he didn’t notice the real trend worth watching.
  16. 16. Uber’s platform is a long-term threat to traditional media.
  17. 17. What is the one media source we use in cars?
  18. 18. UBER KILLS RADIO.
  19. 19. Uber + driverless cars will free our attention from captivity. Will you still choose to sit idle, listening to the radio? To podcasts? Or radio apps?
  20. 20. Analogy for the challenge that you all face: Simultaneously thinking about today, tomorrow and many years from now, without getting distracted by shiny objects.
  21. 21. The future of marketing depends on your ability to see what’s happening at the fringe and follow it to the mainstream.
  22. 22. 5Emerging Tech Trends For Marketers Scenarios for 2016 and 2026
  23. 23. README Amy only had time to go through three trends. There are two additional trends listed here. In December, the Future Today Institute publishes its annual Tech Trends Report. This year, it includes more than 150 trends to follow. It’s free. Sign up to get a copy along with FTI’s monthly trend updates at: http://futuretodayinstitute.com/contact
  24. 24. Object Recognition Machines have vision. What do they see? 1
  25. 25. What do you see?
  26. 26. As humans, we recognize what’s in the picture.
  27. 27. Dry land, tiny shrubs Method of carrying bottles of milk Size of bottles, measured in metric
  28. 28. Probably not in America
  29. 29. Picture = 1 person Abeche = 1 city Chad = one country Africa = 1 continent
  30. 30. 7 billion people
  31. 31. Within the next few years, every one of those 7 billion people will own or have access to a camera.
  32. 32. Impending Global Data Challenge Everyday people How do I sort/ store/ find my pictures? Marketers and PR professionals How can we use pictures to make sense of the brands, organizations and events that shape our society? Anthropologists How can we use pictures to better understand our evolution? Law Enforcement How can we harness pictures to inform us of criminal wrongdoing? Computer Scientists How can we train machines to automatically recognize objects in all these pictures?
  33. 33. To address that challenge, machines must recognize explicit objects... but also context and infer meaning.
  34. 34. Image credit: Google Addressing the Challenge: Object Recognition
  35. 35. Image credit: Google Addressing the Challenge: Object Recognition
  36. 36. Image credit: Google
  37. 37. Google “Jim McKelvey Glass”
  38. 38. Google “Jim McKelvey Glass”
  39. 39. Google “Jim McKelvey Glass”
  40. 40. Google “Jim McKelvey Glass”
  41. 41. Machines are being trained to recognize objects, and to infer meaning.
  42. 42. Example: Let’s say I want to know who someone is.
  43. 43. Machines can recognize us even when we’re moving...
  44. 44. README The following slide was a video.
  45. 45. FaceShift
  46. 46. Photo credit: Siri Stafford/Getty Today’s face-recognition algorithms... • Recognize you even if you’re moving • Recognize you even if your hair is covering your face • ID you by smile, grimace • ID you by posture
  47. 47. Machines are learning to recognize our actions and behaviors, too.
  48. 48. CSAIL: New research - behavior
  49. 49. README The following slides were video.
  50. 50. Machines can recognize our sounds. (Better than we can.)
  51. 51. CSAIL: New research - sound
  52. 52. Here’s how all of this impacts the near-future of marketing...
  53. 53. Object recognition + Motion recognition + Sound recognition + Generative language algos = ––––––––––––––––––––––––
  54. 54. The foundation for computer- generated videos for brands, campaigns and thought leadership.
  55. 55. README The following slide was a video.
  56. 56. Think of it as a fully-automated version of the tool you’re currently using.
  57. 57. Don’t worry! This won’t replace your creative teams...
  58. 58. README The following slide was a video.
  59. 59. This technology will augment them –– give them superpowers!
  60. 60. 12 - 36 months Different video version for every platform you can imagine 5 years Personalized videos for every person across platforms... ∞ a day
  61. 61. Start experimenting with object recognition and auto-generated videos. DO NOW: whiteboard your video strategy for the next 5 years Practical Application
  62. 62. 2026: Object Recognition Trillions of cameras, 10x data..... But what about trust? 1
  63. 63. University of Stuttgart researchers
  64. 64. Smart Dust *computers that are light enough they suspend in the air
  65. 65. Miniature hardware that relies on software and a network connection.
  66. 66. What if our cameras stop telling the truth?
  67. 67. What if I hacked the network and changed the metadata: GPS coordinates from Minneapolis to Munich?
  68. 68. Training machines also means intentionally tricking them using “adversarial images.”
  69. 69. Adversarial Images: The same technology that surfaced glassblowing images of Jim could be turned against him.
  70. 70. Every search for Jim would result in him wearing an Amazon Payments shirt.
  71. 71. In 2016: We’re all in the FBI’s Next Generation Identification Interstate Photo System (NGI-IPS)
  72. 72. But, bias in algorithms...
  73. 73. By 2026... AdWords Objects
  74. 74. Recognizes objects in video and photos Offers image overlays from brands related to those objects (Like buying Google ads, but visual) Implication: Auction system –– companies compete to buy the rights to certain objects, like a coffee cup. Filed January 2015
  75. 75. photo credit: Associated Press 2026: What happens on the 25th anniversary of 911 if marketers buy the object words “Twin Towers”
  76. 76. Is there an algo that will protect us against our own poor judgement?
  77. 77. 2016: Mixed Reality Immersive environments changed our expectations for how stories are told. 2
  78. 78. Mixed Reality (n) Combines the physical and digital realms. Augmented Reality (digital overlays), Virtual Reality (an immersive digital environment) and multidirectional camera angles (360 degree).
  79. 79. MR as 360-degree images + video...
  80. 80. README The following slide was a video.
  81. 81. MR without headset...
  82. 82. README The following slide was a video.
  83. 83. Hatsune Miku: One of the world’s biggest pop stars
  84. 84. MR with headset...
  85. 85. These are NOT Google Glass
  86. 86. VR is not a panacea • Not everyone has a headset  • “Simulation sickness” • Requires undivided attention • Does your audience have time? • Best place for your resources?
  87. 87. Use VR to tell the stories that are better experienced than passively watched. Show vs Tell
  88. 88. README The full version of the next slide is in your Dropbox folder.
  89. 89. MR Decision Tree
  90. 90. DO NOW: Use or adapt my decision tree for you internally or for your clients to decide when a campaign should be VR, AR, 360-degree, or just regular old video. Practical Application
  91. 91. 2026: Mixed Reality Because we didn’t plan in advance, we now have serious problems within our digital realms. 2
  92. 92. Marketers will soon be the digital equivalent of Freddy Kreuger.
  93. 93. I am afraid of heights. Very afraid.
  94. 94. Evil marketing geniuses
  95. 95. README The following slide was a video.
  96. 96. Scientists have been studying “virtual reality exposure therapy” for 15+ years.
  97. 97. Guided by therapists, patients are embedded into VR stories that represent a trauma they’ve experienced.
  98. 98. Over time, VR training results in new neuropathways in the brain. The patient’s beliefs, attitudes and reactions are changed.
  99. 99. My lizard brain now thinks the experience I had was real.
  100. 100. Test driving a Volvo in VR
  101. 101. Luxuriating in IKEA’s VR kitchen: spotless, organized, well-mannered children, crisp breeze
  102. 102. Do a great job in VR, and you––marketers––have the power to biologically re-wire your audience.
  103. 103. Please connect the dots in advance! • What are the boundaries that you’ll set? How much mind control is ok? • How will you represent gender/ religion/ culture/ ethnicity in a virtual world, without using stereotypes? • Do marketing agencies need to hire ethicists?
  104. 104. 2016: Conversational Computing Programmable software automates reporting and syndication. 3
  105. 105. We are entering an era of conversational interfaces. You can be expected to talk to machines for the rest of your life.
  106. 106. Conversations we’ll have...
  107. 107. Near Future Bottable interfaces and platforms will replace standard user interfaces.
  108. 108. Changes the expectations of your audiences and clients.
  109. 109. These platforms can also simulate a conversation you might have with your client or team. To help you think through ideas and concepts.
  110. 110. What’s the big deal? Who’s for and against it, and why?
  111. 111. Introducing our special guest...
  112. 112. Amy Conversational Interface
  113. 113. Amy is the Artificially Intelligent version of me.
  114. 114. Skills: • Amy learns as they go • Generative language • Specifically programmed to help you understand MIMA and my tech trends
  115. 115. Amy’s an experimental bot, created with AI markup language and Chatfuel.
  116. 116. Shall we say hi?
  117. 117. m.me/AkiraAIBot
  118. 118. 1. MIMA 2. MIMA Summit 3. Tech Trends presented 4. Futurism Amy can have 4 conversations to help you gain a better understanding of MIMA and tech trends:
  119. 119. Shall we say hi?
  120. 120. m.me/AmyWebbBot
  121. 121. 1. MIMA 2. MIMA Summit 3. Tech Trends presented 4. Futurism Amy can have 4 conversations to help you gain a better understanding of MIMA and tech trends:
  122. 122. Dmitrii Dumik CEO of Chatfuel (talked to us from Russia via video)
  123. 123. Amy is one of 12k Facebook Messenger chatbots.
  124. 124. (But Amy is very special.)
  125. 125. Amy is designed to learn as you interact with them.
  126. 126. Gimmick? No. Conversational computing meets people where they already are.
  127. 127. Not a replacement for traditional storytelling. Dynamic Listicle *great for specific subjects like explainers
  128. 128. Target / CVS: FluShotBot This can be built with Chatfuel (or other) What is the flu shot? Who should get the flu shot? When should I get the flu shot? Is the flu shot safe? Will the flu shot make me sick? Where is the nearest Target? How much is a flu shot?
  129. 129. General Mills: Breakfast Bot This can be built with Chatfuel (or other) Why do we eat cereal? What is cereal, exactly? What do various countries eat for breakfast? How are our brains affected by cereal? Who else eats cereal for breakfast – just kids? How do you make cereal? Cereal trivia What’s the deal with whole grain?
  130. 130. Amy is now live and is ready to meet you! m.me/AmyWebbBot Facebook: Amy Webb Bot
  131. 131. DO NOW: Build a conversational project. Try an explainer or single-issue bot. LEARN from your experiment to understand how to meet your audience where they are to have a conversation. Practical Application
  132. 132. 2026: Conversational Computing Mistakes were made. 3
  133. 133. Basic conversational computing systems require a big database of possible questions and answers.
  134. 134. AI systems require data sets, algorithms and training.
  135. 135. Training happens in real-time, and require real interactions with humans.
  136. 136. Here’s what happens when humans get involved.
  137. 137. Other instances of AI behaving badly...
  138. 138. These machines have parents. (programmers) And textbooks. (our data)
  139. 139. We are their mothers and fathers. We are creating them in our own likeness.
  140. 140. By 2026, we will realize that we taught machines to talk, and they learned from our structural racism/ sexism/ homophobia/ xenophobia.
  141. 141. Ctrl+Alt+Future Program your systems now to help retrain us, as we train the machines.
  142. 142. If you try to harass Amy, they have been designed to help you learn how to be a better human.
  143. 143. Botness Scale (full scale is in Dropbox) 1.Is your bot’s purpose explicit? Will people interacting with your bot clearly understand what its purpose is after the first few interactions? 2.Is your bot easy to access, either on a designated platform or across platforms? 3.Does your bot help people learn something new, or does it effectively reinforce something that people already know? 4.Does the corpus (the initial, base set of questions and answers) you’ve created reflect only one gender, race or ethnicity? If so, was that intentional? 5.Did you assign your bot a traditional gender, ethnic or racial identity? If so, does it reference any stereotypes?
  144. 144. Something a little smarter than Amy...
  145. 145. What if you had an artificially intelligent assistant, to help you evaluate how people might react to your campaign in advance?
  146. 146. README The following slide was a video.
  147. 147. No, Wikipedia isn’t trustworthy. This will eventually work with proper data sets.
  148. 148. What if Debater could be used in real-time, to test your message? For example, what if tonight’s presidential debate was...........
  149. 149. IBM Research: Debater
  150. 150. Those are your three trends and scenarios.
  151. 151. WAIT
  152. 152. Why isn’t Artificial Intelligence a trend??
  153. 153. Artificial Intelligence
  154. 154. AI hasn’t fully arrived. We’re just at the beginning, still. Take time now to learn about what it really is.
  155. 155. AI will impact all aspects of marketing...
  156. 156. OUT Web Content Producer Social Media Manager Interactive Media Planner Multimedia Designer Graphic Designer Media Research Analyst Search Engine Marketer IN Chief Experience Officer Platforms Manager Bot Developer Principal Researcher, Media Lab Ecosystem Manager Neural Virtual Experience Manager Augmented Reality Producer Lead Data Scientist Automation Experience Designer Marketing Jobs of the Near-Future
  157. 157. Learn what AI really is, what it can do, what it can’t do. Learn the lexicon. Read some papers. AI: What You Should Do Now
  158. 158. README These are the two additional trends that weren’t in the live presentation.
  159. 159. Organizational Doxxing What happens when hackers go after the personal details of every staff member in your client’s organization? (Or your agency?) 4
  160. 160. In the wake of the Edward Snowden leaks, we’ve seen a number of data dumps. WikiLeaks has published troves of data. Hackers broke into Hacking Team, publishing a massive amount of internal data. Sony has been breached, and so have various branches of the U.S. government. This isn’t about stealing credit card information, but rather about making public the personal details of individuals. “Doxing” is mining and publishing personal information about a person––organizational doxing is when this happens to an entire company. (Security expert Bruce Schneier has written extensively about this.) Why this matters for marketers: In the spring and summer of 2016, hate groups on Twitter began specifically targeting women staff at a number of brands, Jewish journalists, and African American city officials. In our ever-polarizing political climate, you and your clients ought to shore up security and to develop a risk management plan should they find themselves doxed. Trend #4: Organizational Doxing
  161. 161. Augmented Marketing New tools will supercharge and augment the work of marketers. 5
  162. 162. Simply put, AI is branch of computer science in which computers are programmed to do things that normally require human intelligence. This includes learning, reasoning, problem-solving, understanding language and perceiving a situation or environment. AI is an extremely large, broad field, which uses its own computer languages and even special kinds of computer networks, which are modeled on our human brains. For the past six decades, researchers have been modeling AI using our own human brain as inspiration. Neural networks are the basic computer architecture that attempts to mimic some of what we know about how the human brain and central nervous system transfers signals. Why this matters for marketers: AI systems will help marketers do everything from personalize content to individual consumers... to analyzing media buying... to automagically generating ideas. This won’t replace the work for marketers, but rather it will supercharge their abilities to garner even more attention for their brands and causes. Trend #5: Augmented Marketing
  163. 163. The future isn’t pre-determined. It’s something we all create together, in the present.
  164. 164. Birthday treats for you...
  165. 165. http://bit.ly/MIMA2016
  166. 166. README I gave everyone at the MIMA Summit a free copy of my new book. (See next slide.)
  167. 167. My new book is all about the future, and how you can predict tech trends yourself!
  168. 168. Your organization can become a member of the Future Today Institute!
  169. 169. THE FORESIGHT PROGRAM The Future Today Institute’s Annual Retainer Client ProgramThe Institute’s Tech Trends Forecasting Subscription Service
  170. 170. WHAT YOU GET AS A FORESIGHT PROGRAM CLIENT This program ensures that an organization knows all of the near- and mid-future trends on Quarterly On-Site Trends Research Workshops These half-day customized trends Sessions are deeply personalized for your organization and they are highly interactive. First, we detail emerging trends your organization needs to know. But from our point of view, information alone isn’t That’s why in the second half of our quarterly workshops, we apply two of the Future Today Institute’s tools to help you determine how to move the trend into action. (Even if the result is to simply monitor the trend for a little while longer.) By the end of these quarterly workshops, you’ll not only know what trends are emerging, but what to do about them in the present. Big Ideas Summit Invitations Foresight Program clients receive invitations to our two Big Ideas Summits a year. We bring together the Future Today Institute’s clients as well as experts working on emerging technologies for an exciting roundtable discussion. You’ll have the opportunity to meet and collaborate with brilliant people and to share knowledge across industries. (Clients receive 2 seats per Summit.) Summits are typically held in NYC, Boston and DC. Tools To Measure Your Forecasting ROI Ongoing Advising Our annual tech trends report is covered by dozens of media outlets (Harvard Business Review, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and others) and is typically downloaded more than 250,000 times each year. The Future Today Institute clients receive early access to the report, giving them a strategic edge as they plan for the year ahead. What’s the value of tracking trends? We’ll give you a set of tools to help you quantify the impact of the tracking trends within your organization. The ability to talk with us throughout the month for advising, insight and inspiration. (Additional fee applies.) Notes From The Near Future – Monthly Trends Report all of the emerging trends you should be aware of, why they matter, and who the key players are driving the trend. Notes From The Near Future – Monthly Trends Briefing Call Slack Integration A few days after the report is sent, we host a short virtual hangout to answer any questions you might have. Since all of our clients are invited to join, it’s also a great opportunity to hear from people working outside your industry. For clients using Slack, we include a custom #trends channel to continually update and inspire your team. Early Access To Our Annual Trends Report Become a member of the Institute! Membership includes: • quarterly custom tech trends presentations in your office for you, your staff and (if you want) your clients • monthly research and reading packs • custom Slack channel just for you and your team • invites to our Institute events Interested? Call 267-342-4300 or email hello@futuretodayinstitute.com
  171. 171. futuretodayinstitute.com hello@futuretodayinstitute.com @amywebb267-342-4300

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