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Advancing the data revolution: prospects for improved vital statistics production from incomplete civil registration systems

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Presentation by Romesh Silva (UNFPA) at the international conference on innovations in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems - Ottawa on 27-28 February 2018. See more at http://crvsinnovations.net

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Advancing the data revolution: prospects for improved vital statistics production from incomplete civil registration systems

  1. 1. Advancing the Data Revolution: Prospects for Improved Vital Statistics Production from Incomplete Civil Registration Systems Romesh Silva, Ph.D. – Population and Development Branch, Technical Division International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems IDRC Headquarters, Ottawa, Canada 27 February, 2018
  2. 2. Importance of CRVS Systems 2 1. Individual Human Rights and Societal Inclusion • secures individuals with recognition of their legal identity and ensure rights of access to public services, social protection and human rights 2. Official Vital Statistics + Policy/Planning • generates statistics on population dynamics and health indicators on a continuous basis for the country as a whole and at a local level for its administrative subdivisions • Continuous • Permanent • Compulsory • Universal Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  3. 3. Registration Completeness & Mortality Level Paradox 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Under−five Mortality Rate DeathRegistrationCompleteness(%) BAH EGY IRQJOR KUW LBN MOR OMN QTR SAU PAL SDN SYR TUN UAE YEM 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 20 40 60 80 100 Adult Mortality Rate (45q15) DeathRegistrationCompleteness(%) BAH EGY IRQJOR KUW LBN MOR OMN QTR SAU PAL SDN SYR TUN UAE YEM Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  4. 4. Notable Variability in Dimensions of Vital Statistics Data Quality Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems Citation: Phillips et al.; The Lancet, 2015
  5. 5. 5 Heavy reliance on non-CRVS sources by UN when estimating summary mortality measures • Complete Vital Registration: 91 countries • e.g. Germany, Qatar • Incomplete Vital Registration: 40 countries • e.g. Sri Lanka, Turkey • Survey Estimates of child & adult mortality: 51 countries • e.g. Senegal • Survey Estimates of child mortality only: 17 countries • e.g. Laos, Malawi • Limited or no recent data: 22 countries • e.g. North Korea, Somalia Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  6. 6. Opportunities for Strategic Innovation to Strengthen CRVS Systems 6 1. Improve completeness estimates and demographic data quality assessment of civil registration data 2. Integration of multiple data sources to improve CRVS completeness 3. Cultivate cultural norm of routine vital statistics production and usage Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  7. 7. 1. Improved Completeness Estimates and Demographic Data Quality Assessment of CR Data 7 Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  8. 8. Census Questions related to mortality covered in Censuses in Africa in the 2010 Round Number of countries that collected household deaths in the past 12 months, maternal and paternal orphanhood Household deaths in the past 12 months Age Date Cause Maternal Paternal Total by Maternal orphanhood orphanhood Sex at of of death death death death All 124 countries 48 48 48 22 16 34 27 27 Africa (27) 20 20 20 7 9 16 17 17 America, North (18) 7 7 7 3 1 3 1 1 America, South (6) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 Asia (27) 13 13 13 5 4 11 2 2 Europe (24) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oceania (22) 6 6 6 6 2 4 7 7 Source: United Nations Statistics Division How many countries have analyzed and published these these data? Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  9. 9. Strengthening Civil Registration Data Assessment through the 2020 Round of Population Censuses 1. Combine census data with civil registration data to foster full use of census data in the framework of national statistical systems. 2. Incorporate data use as a focus of UNFPA census support 3. View data dissemination as the link between data availability and data use for policymaking. Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  10. 10. Use of Other Sources to assess subnational variation in CR completeness 10 • Promotion of integration population data systems • Informative: • Unpacking variability in CR completeness by age/sex • ‘Leave no one behind’ Vapattanawong & Prasartkul, Bull World Health Organ 2011;89:806–812 Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  11. 11. 2. Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Improve CRVS Completeness 11 Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  12. 12. Addressing the Passive Nature of Civil Registration: Integration with the health system and related systems 12 Figure: Potential data loss from notification of deaths to production of vital statistics. Hypothetical scenario common to low-income countries. Source: de Savigny et al. (2017) Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  13. 13. Addressing the Passive Nature of Civil Registration: Integration with the health system and related systems 13 • Szwarcwald et al. (2014) used proactive search process of vital events in North/Northeast Brazil to identify: • live birth and death certificates issued but not reported to the CRVS system, and • live births and deaths whose certificates were not issued. • Use of multiple alternative data sources! • recognition of the largely passive nature of civil registration procedures Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  14. 14. 14 • Correction factors were estimated by strata based on additional vital events found in the proactive search. • The procedure was generalized to correct municipal vital statistics for the period 2000–2010. Adjustment of Civil Registration Data via cross- validation with complementary sources Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  15. 15. 3. Cultivate Cultural Norm of Routine Vital Statistics Production and Usage 15 Analyze what we collect, Publish what we analyze Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  16. 16. Use what we collect: even if not nationally representative! Case study: Antananarivo, Madagascar 16 Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems
  17. 17. Publish what we collect: Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics 17 Romesh Silva – 2018 IDRC International Conference on Innovations in CRVS Systems

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