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Lisa Samson Presentation

  1. strategycorp.comPublic Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications Canada: Decision 2015 What happened and what’s next? October 21, 2015
  2. 2Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications Popular vote Party Popular Vote 2011 Popular Vote 2015 18.9% 39.5% 39.6% 31.9% 30.6% 19.7% 6.0% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4%
  3. 3Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications Seat allocation for 42nd Parliament There are at least 2 electoral recounts occurring. 184 Seats 99 Seats 44 Seats 10 Seats 1 Seats Total 338 Seats
  4. 4Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications What happened? • Campaign lacked focus on key issues • Unlike 2005-06 campaign, where Conservatives defeated Liberal minority government, there was no clear agenda for what would be done if they were re- elected • Key election promises had already been mandated in federal budget 2015 so there wasn’t much room for anything “new” • “Vote for us or else...” became the dominant theme • Harper’s Leadership was a campaign theme early in campaign – they underestimated how much #elxn42 was already a referendum on Harper and not a selling point with Canadians • Negative campaigning, insider fighting within the campaign team
  5. 5Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications What happened? • In their haste to make themselves the “change you can trust” they forgot that they are a progressive party - Progressives didn’t believe their message and their “base” didn’t relish their shift to the centre • People viewed them as “Conservative light” and not quite the change they were seeking • Forgot that Kathleen Wynne had won in Ontario by outflanking the NDP on the left
  6. 6Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications What happened? • Long campaign wasn’t the fatal flaw for Trudeau that Conservatives hoped it would be • The Conservatives set low expectations for Trudeau for the campaign and for the debates and he exceeded expectations • Instead of ignoring Conservative attacks, Liberals faced them head on “Not Ready” became “Ready” • Biggest risk of the campaign – running deficits – was a key differentiator between Liberals and NDP and they won over the progressive vote • Campaign was well run, positive, and their core campaign team was tight knit – all very important factors • ABC “Anyone but Conservative” vote coalesced under Liberal banner so vote spitting didn’t occur in same way as previous campaigns
  7. 7Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications • Taxes - Create new tax bracket of 33% on individual incomes in excess of $200,000 - Reduce personal income tax rate on incomes between $44,701 and &89,401 per year to 20.5% (from 22%) - Reduce small business tax rate from 11% to 9% - Create the Canada Chid Benefit by replacing the Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB), Canada Child Tax Benefit (CCTB) and National Child Benefit Supplement (NCBS) - Cancel income splitting for families (keep pension splitting for seniors) - Reduce Employment Insurance premiums to $1.65 from $1.88 per $100 in insurable earnings • Infrastructure investment - Increase federal infrastructure spending to nearly $125 B (from $65 B) over 10 years – including an additional $5 B on new projects in first year of government, split equally between public transit, green projects and social infrastructure - Invest $500 M in spending over next three years for immediate First Nations education infrastructure • Marijuana - Legalize, regulate and restrict access to marijuana • Democratic Reform/Open Government - Immediately restore long-form census - Create non-partisan, merit-based process to advise Prime Minister on Senate appointments - End use of omnibus bills - Amend Access-to-Information laws to make government more transparent Key Liberal Platform Commitments
  8. 8Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications • Health Care - Negotiate a new Health Accord with provinces • Environment - Create national emissions reductions targets - Launch public review of Canada’s environmental assessment processes • Refugees - Accept 25,000 refugees from Syria and Iraq into Canada by end of 2015 • First Nations - Call inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women - Invest additional $2.6 B for core First Nations education over next four years • Military - End Canada’s involvement in air strikes against the Islamic State but maintain training and humanitarian aid - Launch new competition to replace CF-18s and cancel F-35 program Key Liberal Platform Commitments
  9. 9Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications • Liberals have two challenges: scope and pace. • Over his decade in power, Harper fundamentally changed the function of the federal government • Where others sought to consolidate power at the federal level, Harper made a show of getting the money and centralizing power out of Ottawa • It will take some time, and some money, to start to refashion the scope and purpose of the federal government to fit Trudeau’s “Real Change” agenda and that’s exactly what Stephen Harper’s legacy will be • Key changes implemented during the Harper years in terms of fiscal policy, economic strategy, labour market development, foreign affairs, defence, energy, natural resources, justice and immigration cannot be undone overnight What’s Next? Scope
  10. 10Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications What’s Next? • Other areas such as urban affairs, the environment/climate, and healthcare have been handled in vastly different ways for the past 10 years • We can expect meetings of First Ministers to return along with the attendant drama they involve • Further, new issues have emerged that previous Liberal governments haven’t had to deal with including cyber security and contemporary biotechnology – and all of their related issues are changing by the minute
  11. 11Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications • Given the changes that Harper has put in place during his decade in power, the Liberals can’t implement their agenda overnight • Priorities will have to be set and choices will have to be made • Even with a majority mandate, some of the Liberal election promises will take time to implement • This may not make the Liberal base happy • As the Conservatives have learned, majority mandates aren’t always a blessing What’s Next: Pace
  12. 12Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications Where will Trudeau start? • He started on E-day +1 by making sure everyone understand there was a new PM in town • Greeted subway commuters in Montreal before heading to a rally in Ottawa followed by a 25 minutes Q&A with reporters • It was a noticeable change in tone and approach from the last 10 years • There’s a busy fall ahead with a cabinet to be named by November 4th, a G-20 summit to attend, a climate change conference in Paris, to name just a few
  13. 13Public Affairs / Management Consulting / Communications What will the country look like in 4 years? • More infrastructure spending will lead to more projects going ahead within the next 3 years • The way the federal government interacts with the provinces will change back to something similar to the pre-Harper era • There will be strides taken towards a more activist government in Ottawa