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Determinants of domestic
production and exports of seasonal
pulse crops in India – an
Econometric approach
Parmod Kumar an...
Motivation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
19...
3Ps 4 Pulse
• Population
• Production
• Policies
Area & Production of Pulses
Rabi Season Kharif Season
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1980-81
1983-84
1986-8...
Season wise share of Area
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
PigronPea
UrdBean
Mungbean
Mothbean
Horsegram
Chickpea
Lentil
Fie...
Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
yield_khpul yieldrbpul
Global Perspectives
• At the triennium ending 2010-11, India contributed 23% of global
production of pulses followed by Ca...
Policies
• Historically agriculture policies were largely centred on cereals & less
focus had given to pulses
• ISOPAM in ...
 The CAGR (between 2010-11 to 2014-15) in the MSP was 11 per cent each
for Tur/Arhar and Urad, 10 per cent each for Gram ...
Research Question
• How far the price and non-price factors
influence the supply responsiveness of pulses
over the period?
Approach
(Narlovian Supply response)
• The supply response of kharif and rabi pulse crops in terms of area and
yield at th...
Methodology
(Simultaneous equations method of econometrics)
• Area = f (FHP, Comp_Price, Rain, Irig, lag_depen)
• Yield = ...
Table 1: Area Response for Kharif pulses
Explanatory Variables
Coefficien
t
t-
Statistics
Constant 1.26 1.93
FHP Pulses 0....
Table 5: Area Response for Rabi pulses
Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics
Constant 0.29 0.40
FHP Pulses 0.23 3...
Policy Recommendations
• Price helped farmer to be in the cultivation but not expansion
• Opportunity of export can be tra...
THANK YOU
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Determinants of domestic production and exports of seasonal pulse crops in india – an econometric approach

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Determinants of domestic production and exports of seasonal pulse crops in india – an econometric approach

  1. 1. Determinants of domestic production and exports of seasonal pulse crops in India – an Econometric approach Parmod Kumar and Barun Deb Pal ISEC, Bengaluru
  2. 2. Motivation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Per Capita Availability of Pulses (Kg/Capita/year) PC Availability PC Availability_Composite Population (00Mn_persons)
  3. 3. 3Ps 4 Pulse • Population • Production • Policies
  4. 4. Area & Production of Pulses Rabi Season Kharif Season 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2010-11 2013-14 area-rabipul prodrbpul 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2010-11 2013-14 Area_khpul prod_khpul
  5. 5. Season wise share of Area 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% PigronPea UrdBean Mungbean Mothbean Horsegram Chickpea Lentil Fieldpeas Urdbean Mungbean Lathyrus Horsegram Kharif Pulses Rabi Pulses
  6. 6. Yield 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 yield_khpul yieldrbpul
  7. 7. Global Perspectives • At the triennium ending 2010-11, India contributed 23% of global production of pulses followed by Canada (7.93%), China (7.09%), Myanmar (6.89%) and Brazil (5.29%) (FAOSTAT, 2015) • Total area under pulse crops was 72.3 million ha globally, of which India contributed 32% of total area. • After India, countries like Niger (7%), Myanmar (5.33%), Brazil (5.29%) and Nigeria (4.44%) • The average productivity in India at the triennium ending 2010-11 stood at around 645kg/ ha. Whereas the highest productivity was observed in France (4219 kg / ha) followed by Canada (1936kg/ha), USA (1882kg/ha), Russian Federation (1643kg/ha) and China (1596 kg/ha)
  8. 8. Policies • Historically agriculture policies were largely centred on cereals & less focus had given to pulses • ISOPAM in the year 2004-05 and NFSM in the year 2007-08 are significant steps • The key focus of ISOPOM was to increase the production and distribution of certified seeds along with integrated nutrient and pest management (IPM). • The objectives of NFSM are to enhance production of cereals and pulse crops through area expansion and yield enhancement in a sustainable manner.
  9. 9.  The CAGR (between 2010-11 to 2014-15) in the MSP was 11 per cent each for Tur/Arhar and Urad, 10 per cent each for Gram and Moong and 7 per cent for Lentil.  The growth in MSP for paddy of both common variety and Grade A was 8 per cent and wheat was 5 per cent during the same time period (NABARD, 2015).  The procurement has been negligible at about 1 to 4 per cent of production of pulses compared to 28 to 30 per cent of cereals during 2012–13 to 2014– 15 (CACP 2015).  Procurement by NAFED and SFAC has been very limited, i.e., around 6.56 lakh metric tonnes during 2013-14 (July to June).
  10. 10. Research Question • How far the price and non-price factors influence the supply responsiveness of pulses over the period?
  11. 11. Approach (Narlovian Supply response) • The supply response of kharif and rabi pulse crops in terms of area and yield at the national level for India • The linkage between domestic prices and the other policy variables are captured by the effect of the proportional difference between producer’s price and border price and the real exchange rate • World price of the commodity, world income, world trade of the particular commodity etc are influencing the domestic price which in turn affects the cropping pattern decision of the domestic farmers • Thee supply side of exports depends on the inputs, productivity, weather, stocks, expected profitability, world export price and exchange rate.
  12. 12. Methodology (Simultaneous equations method of econometrics) • Area = f (FHP, Comp_Price, Rain, Irig, lag_depen) • Yield = f(FHP, Rain, fert, lag_dep, trend) • FHP = f(unval_exp, MSP, prodn, wrld-income, imp_policy, imp_duty) • Export=f(unival_exp, FHP, prodn, Rer, wrldtrad, lag_dep)
  13. 13. Table 1: Area Response for Kharif pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficien t t- Statistics Constant 1.26 1.93 FHP Pulses 0.00 -0.04 FHP competitive crops -0.01 -0.06 Rainfall 0.19 2.43 Irrigation 0.04 0.88 Lag_area dependent Variable 0.10 0.66 R-squared 0.18 Durbin-Watson stat 1.68 Table 2: Yield Response function for Kharif Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics Constant 2.4629 2.79 Lag_FHP 0.2384 2.84 Rainfall 0.6635 5.69 Fertilizer price -0.1372 -2.13 Lag dependent variable -0.1109 -0.98 Time trend 0.0003 3.83 R-squared 0.6883 Durbin-Watson stat 2.3126 Table 3: Price Response function for Kharif Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics Constant 0.43 0.15 Export price*** 0.21 1.47 MSP* 0.83 3.96 Production 0.13 0.75 World Income 0.07 0.66 Import Policy dummy -0.01 -0.10 Import duty** 0.07 1.72 R-squared 0.71 Durbin-Watson stat 0.95 Table 4: Export Response function of Kharif Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t- Statistics Constant 22.33 1.29 Lag world price of export -1.78 -1.52 FHP Pulses 1.34 0.99 Production of Kharif Pulses -0.09 -0.05 Real Exchange Rate* -4.68 -1.77 World Trade* 0.45 1.78 Previous years Export 0.72 6.51 R-squared 0.78 Durbin-Watson stat 1.93
  14. 14. Table 5: Area Response for Rabi pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics Constant 0.29 0.40 FHP Pulses 0.23 3.80 FHP_Competitive crops -0.08 -0.83 Rainfall 0.24 3.37 Irrigation -0.39 -6.03 Lag_dependent Variable 0.39 3.65 Time trend 0.0003 5.74 R-squared 0.80 Durbin-Watson stat 1.73 Table 6: Yield Response function for Rabi Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics Constant 6.86 8.05 FHP -0.02 -0.22 Winter rain 0.02 0.59 Irrigation 0.07 0.73 Fertilizer Price -0.20 -2.03 time trend 0.0001 1.90 R-squared 0.73 Durbin-Watson stat 2.50 Table 7: Price Response function for Rabi Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics constant 6.27 2.88 unit value of export 0.32 2.80 MSP 0.42 1.60 Production -0.24 -1.33 Openness 0.31 1.58 Trend -0.0048 -0.57 R-squared 0.58 Durbin-Watson stat 1.66 Table 8: Export Response function of Rabi Pulses Explanatory Variables Coefficient t-Statistics Constant 80.31 4.75 Unit value of export -6.09 -5.87 Lag FHP -3.40 -2.68 lag production -0.35 -0.18 REER -3.68 -1.77 policy dummy 0.14 0.14 trend -0.40 -6.37 R-squared 0.75 Durbin-Watson stat 1.17
  15. 15. Policy Recommendations • Price helped farmer to be in the cultivation but not expansion • Opportunity of export can be trapped • Huge potential for area expansion – technological interventions are necessary • More emphasis is needed especially in the eastern region where the productivity at present is low and the region has huge potential for these crops • special efforts are needed on the research and development front to develop high yielding variety seeds in pulses whereby no spectacular increase in yield is observed during the last half a decade • special emphasis also needs to be given on dry land farming whereby pulse crops can be grown under rain-fed conditions with minimal or no irrigation
  16. 16. THANK YOU

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