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08 e mast ecosystem modelling and scaling infrastructure current status of tern 28.03.12


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08 e mast ecosystem modelling and scaling infrastructure current status of tern 28.03.12

  1. 1. ecosystem Modelling And ScalinginfrasTructure (e-MAST)Putting data to work!Presentation by Colin Prentice
  2. 2. e-MAST’s objectivesDEVELOP research infrastructure to integrateTERN (and external) data streamsENABLE benchmarking, evaluation, optimizationof ecosystem modelsSUPPORT ecosystem science, impact assessmentand management
  3. 3. Driving science questionsCARBON: How much CO2 is exchanged? Howmuch carbon can be stored and where?WATER: What drives water use by ecosystems,and runoff in rivers?CLIMATE CHANGE: How does it change therules?LAND MANAGEMENT: What will work, in achanging climate?
  4. 4. More driving science questionsFIRE: What are the risks? How can they bemitigated?CLIMATE FEEDBACKS: How will ecosystemchanges influence the exchanges of carbon,water and energy with the atmosphere?BIODIVERSITY: What species are threatened?Where are likely refugia? Is there a tippingpoint?
  5. 5. Who will use e-MAST?Other TERN facilities seeking maximum use oftheir data, especially:• AusCover• OzFlux• MSPN (all components)• ÆKOSCommunity buildingAdding value
  6. 6. Who will use e-MAST?• Researchers• Commmonwealth e.g. BoM, DCCEE, SEWPAC• Natural resource managers• Conservation organizationsAnswering questions at all scalesAddressing tradeoffs – carbon, water,biodiversity
  7. 7. What e-MAST will provide• Top-level drivers and targets (from TERN and elsewhere) for models• Software for benchmarking (based on PALS)• Data-assimilation for optimization• Tools for interpolation, downscaling, upscaling, hindcasting, forecastingHigh-resolution products: climate, canopyconductance, water use, primary production
  8. 8. Benchmarkingfrom Gab Abramowitz (UNSW)
  9. 9. Benchmarkingfrom Gab Abramowitz (UNSW)
  10. 10. Data assimilationfrom Damian Barrett (CSIRO/UQ)
  11. 11. High-resolution climate surfaces from Mike Hutchinson (ANU)
  12. 12. Climate data sets (1 km) Tmin Tmax vp P pan wet solar wind evap. days rad. speeddaily ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔1970-2011monthly ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔1970-2011mean ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔monthly
  13. 13. Target data sets• OzFlux: CO2, latent heat flux• AusCover: green vegetation cover, surface T…• e-MAST and MSPN: leaf traits, photosynthesisand• CSIRO: remote [CO2], streamflow, fire
  14. 14. Tools• Connect inputs and targets via a model• “Spread” fluxes across the landscape via a model• Connect observed [CO2] and streamflow to modelled CO2 flux and runoff• Compute data-model comparison statistics• Derive re-analysis products• Downscale climate drivers to any point• Downscale climate change scenarios to a grid
  15. 15. Status of the facility• TERN’s newest facility: led by Macquarie, partners (CSIRO, UQ, ANU) on board 1 Jan 2012• Design phase nearly complete• User interface will be maintained at NCI• Target date for the present phase is 31 Dec 2013
  16. 16. Next priorities• Increasing awareness: ‘model mapping’ workshop• Extension: biodiversity information and modelling