1.
THEMES
• 2020 is an historic moment
• What BREXIT means for farming
• The end of CAP
• Digitalising – the end of labour and the coming of precision farming
• Genetics & the new biological sciences
• Net zero and carbon farming

2.
2020 IS AN HISTORIC MOMENT
• Open fields – enclosures and clearances - Middle Ages to 16th/17th century
• First agricultural revolution - late 18th century
• The coming of fossil fuels – steam engines and tractors – late 19th/20th century
• Freight and refrigeration – early 20th century
• The Second World War and dig-for-victory – 1940 onwards
• The post war agriculture Act - 1947
• EU entry and the CAP – 1973/73 onwards
• BREXIT and technology – 2020

3.
WHAT BREXIT MEANS FOR FARMING
CAP =
Big subsidies (£3billion) + trade barriers & BFP + lots of other subsidies
New Agricultural policy =
£3billion declines and “free trade” + public goods + carbon price
European Commission (with French pressure) replaced by HMT

4.
THE END OF THE CAP
• Pillar 1 (BFP) + Pillar 2 (rural development & environment payments)
• Owning land –> payment for public goods
• Capitalisation impacts and land prices
• Auctions, ELMS and big data
And less money……

5.
DIGITALISATION
& THE COMING OF PRECISION FARMING
• Digitalisation is as significant as the coming of tractors
• Almost everything can be digitalised
• Natural capital mapping
• Carbon mapping
• No need for many workers…… the robots are coming

6.
GENETICS
& THE NEW BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
• From species to genomics to individual genes
• Reassembling proteins and more plant-based food
• Gene editing
• GMOs
Towards a plasticity of nature

7.
NET ZERO & CARBON FARMING
• Electricity
• Transport
• Agriculture (including
ammonia & red diesel)
Emissions Carbon sequestration
• Soils
• Trees
• Peat
• Marine
Vs.