Mohamed Naim Presentation - Cardiff University

1. RERUN
RECODE International Symposium - Future Visions of
Manufacturing: Customisation, Redistribution and Technology
5-6 June, 2017

2. 2
The Project Team: Who We Are
Prof Aris Syntetos
(Principal Investigator)
Prof Mohamed Naim Dr Ying Liu
The Academic Team
Dr Borja Ponte Dr Shixuan

3. 3
Our Partners
Industry partners
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The Project Team: Who We Are

4. 4
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Policy advisors
4
Our Partners
The Project Team: Who We Are

5. 1. Background and motivation
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Evolving from the traditional production model…
Source: Adapted from the
Centre for Resource Efficient
Manufacturing Systems (REMS)

6. 1. Background and motivation
6
… into an emerging circular model.
Source: Centre for Resource Efficient
Manufacturing Systems (REMS)

7. 1. Background and motivation
7
Remanufacturing
value is estimated at
$43 billion in the US
(USITC, 2012) and
EURO 30 billion in
the EU (ERN, 2015).
Source: innovateuk.org

8. 1. Background and motivation
The environmental opportunity.
Source: University of Augsburg,
and Yale University

9. 1. Background and motivation
9
“For businesses,
remanufacturing is about
retaining the value of products
and a client base”
Source: Lavery and Pennell (2013)

10. 11
1. Background and motivation
CLOSED-LOOP CONTEXT
Two external sources of
uncertainty: demand and returns
Bill of materials and bill of
returns
TRADITIONAL CONTEXT
One external source of
uncertainty: demand
Bill of materials
Opportunity
Challenge

11. 2. Research goals
Vision of the Project
To create a sustainable and resilient
world where remanufacturers and their
closed-loop networks have ‘visibility’
of returns and reflect such information
into circular economy compatible
inventory and production control
systems.

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2. Research goals
Re
R u
N

13. 15
2. Research goals
1. We aim to explore how
returns forecasting impacts
on the dynamic performance
of closed-loop supply chains.
This entails considering a ‘two-tailed’
uncertainty problem (demand and
returns), which has been barely picked
up by academic research.

14. 16
2. Research goals
2. We aim to investigate how
informatics (cyber-physics, IoT,
Big Data) may contribute to a
better understanding of closed-
loop systems.
No studies have been found to address what data are
relevant to efficient inventory and production
management and how such data and any insights
uncovered can be interfaced with and then incorporated
into solving the problem.

15. 17
2. Research goals
No studies to-date look at how returns forecasting and
the replenishment rules can be integrated in a systemic
way to optimise inventory and production management.
3. . We aim to design a systemic
solution based on the concept of
holons, given the integrated
nature of the supply chain.
The solution must be resilient to uncertainties and
disturbances, including the ‘two-tailed’ uncertainty.

16. 18
3. The Project Plan
WP1:
Empirical
grounding of
research
• Aimed at identifying the streams of information
through which uncertainty manifests itself and thus
appreciate what forecasting approaches are most relevant
and how current systems models can be appropriately
expanded to capture uncertainty.
WP2: Theory
development
and empirical
testing
• Aimed at developing new theory on returns
forecasting and systems modelling in the
presence of uncertainty, and assess such
theoretical propositions (independently) for their
empirical validity.
WP3: ‘What if?’
analysis and
integrated
solution
• Aimed at establishing a suite of archetype
holons of forecasting and inventory &
production control for remanufacturing and
to ensure the practical relevance of our
propositions.
WP4:
Dashboard for
direct impact
• Aimed at developing a
dashboard for practical
applications and being generic
enough for wider exploitation by
the remanufacturing sector.

17. 19
4. What the theory tells us
Modelling a generic structure of a closed-loop supply chain.

18. Order Receipt Finished products
Demand
D
Manufacturing

19. Order Receipt Finished products
DemandTarget
inventory
D
Manufacturing

20. Order Receipt Finished products
DemandForecastTarget
inventory
D
Manufacturing

21. Order Receipt Finished products
DemandForecastTarget
inventory
D
Work In
Progress
Target
WIP
Manufacturing

22. Order Receipt Finished products
DemandForecastTarget
inventory
D
Work In
Progress
Target
WIP
Manufacturing
D
Consumption
ReturnsD
Remanufacturing

23. Order Receipt Finished products
DemandForecastTarget
inventory
D
Work In
Progress
Target
WIP
Manufacturing
D
Consumption
ReturnsD
Remanufacturing
What’s in the pipeline?

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Impact of returns pipeline visibility on the
'bullwhip' effect
Demand Orders (no pipeline information
Orders (some pipeline information) Orders (more pipeline information)

25. RERUN
Thank you for your attention.
We’re open for collaboration.
I can be contacted on:
NaimMM@Cardiff.ac.uk