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Re Run Project

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Mohamed Naim Presentation - Cardiff University

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Re Run Project

  1. 1. RERUN RECODE International Symposium - Future Visions of Manufacturing: Customisation, Redistribution and Technology 5-6 June, 2017
  2. 2. 2 The Project Team: Who We Are Prof Aris Syntetos (Principal Investigator) Prof Mohamed Naim Dr Ying Liu The Academic Team Dr Borja Ponte Dr Shixuan
  3. 3. 3 Our Partners Industry partners 3 The Project Team: Who We Are
  4. 4. 4 4 Policy advisors 4 Our Partners The Project Team: Who We Are
  5. 5. 1. Background and motivation 5 Evolving from the traditional production model… Source: Adapted from the Centre for Resource Efficient Manufacturing Systems (REMS)
  6. 6. 1. Background and motivation 6 … into an emerging circular model. Source: Centre for Resource Efficient Manufacturing Systems (REMS)
  7. 7. 1. Background and motivation 7 Remanufacturing value is estimated at $43 billion in the US (USITC, 2012) and EURO 30 billion in the EU (ERN, 2015). Source: innovateuk.org
  8. 8. 1. Background and motivation The environmental opportunity. Source: University of Augsburg, and Yale University
  9. 9. 1. Background and motivation 9 “For businesses, remanufacturing is about retaining the value of products and a client base” Source: Lavery and Pennell (2013)
  10. 10. 11 1. Background and motivation CLOSED-LOOP CONTEXT Two external sources of uncertainty: demand and returns Bill of materials and bill of returns TRADITIONAL CONTEXT One external source of uncertainty: demand Bill of materials Opportunity Challenge
  11. 11. 2. Research goals Vision of the Project To create a sustainable and resilient world where remanufacturers and their closed-loop networks have ‘visibility’ of returns and reflect such information into circular economy compatible inventory and production control systems.
  12. 12. 14 2. Research goals Re R u N
  13. 13. 15 2. Research goals 1. We aim to explore how returns forecasting impacts on the dynamic performance of closed-loop supply chains. This entails considering a ‘two-tailed’ uncertainty problem (demand and returns), which has been barely picked up by academic research.
  14. 14. 16 2. Research goals 2. We aim to investigate how informatics (cyber-physics, IoT, Big Data) may contribute to a better understanding of closed- loop systems. No studies have been found to address what data are relevant to efficient inventory and production management and how such data and any insights uncovered can be interfaced with and then incorporated into solving the problem.
  15. 15. 17 2. Research goals No studies to-date look at how returns forecasting and the replenishment rules can be integrated in a systemic way to optimise inventory and production management. 3. . We aim to design a systemic solution based on the concept of holons, given the integrated nature of the supply chain. The solution must be resilient to uncertainties and disturbances, including the ‘two-tailed’ uncertainty.
  16. 16. 18 3. The Project Plan WP1: Empirical grounding of research • Aimed at identifying the streams of information through which uncertainty manifests itself and thus appreciate what forecasting approaches are most relevant and how current systems models can be appropriately expanded to capture uncertainty. WP2: Theory development and empirical testing • Aimed at developing new theory on returns forecasting and systems modelling in the presence of uncertainty, and assess such theoretical propositions (independently) for their empirical validity. WP3: ‘What if?’ analysis and integrated solution • Aimed at establishing a suite of archetype holons of forecasting and inventory & production control for remanufacturing and to ensure the practical relevance of our propositions. WP4: Dashboard for direct impact • Aimed at developing a dashboard for practical applications and being generic enough for wider exploitation by the remanufacturing sector.
  17. 17. 19 4. What the theory tells us Modelling a generic structure of a closed-loop supply chain.
  18. 18. Order Receipt Finished products Demand D Manufacturing
  19. 19. Order Receipt Finished products DemandTarget inventory D Manufacturing
  20. 20. Order Receipt Finished products DemandForecastTarget inventory D Manufacturing
  21. 21. Order Receipt Finished products DemandForecastTarget inventory D Work In Progress Target WIP Manufacturing
  22. 22. Order Receipt Finished products DemandForecastTarget inventory D Work In Progress Target WIP Manufacturing D Consumption ReturnsD Remanufacturing
  23. 23. Order Receipt Finished products DemandForecastTarget inventory D Work In Progress Target WIP Manufacturing D Consumption ReturnsD Remanufacturing What’s in the pipeline?
  24. 24. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118 121 124 127 130 133 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 Impact of returns pipeline visibility on the 'bullwhip' effect Demand Orders (no pipeline information Orders (some pipeline information) Orders (more pipeline information)
  25. 25. RERUN Thank you for your attention. We’re open for collaboration. I can be contacted on: NaimMM@Cardiff.ac.uk

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