System thinking elisava nov19 seg

1. huntingmammoths.com Systems Thinking Josep Mª Monguet Jm.monguet@upc.edu https://dintoolkit.com Updated XI-2019 Models to understand and predict behaviour and its interest in design.

2. huntingmammoths.com Systems Thinking is a key discipline

3. huntingmammoths.com Systems Thinking is a key discipline From now on, you will need ST to work, & live

4. huntingmammoths.com From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Everything can be and must be seen (modelled) as a system

5. huntingmammoths.com From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Everything can be and must be seen (modelled) as a system

6. huntingmammoths.com From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Is this a system? 1 Can you identify the individual parts? 2 Do the parts affect each other? 3 Do the parts together produce an effect that is different from the effect of each part on its own? 4 Does the effect persist in a variety of circumstances?

7. huntingmammoths.com P: Ever wonder what those sparkly dots are up there? T: Pumbaa. I don't wonder; I know. P: Oh! ...What are they? T: They're fireflies. Fireflies that uh… got stuck up on that big… bluish-black… thing. P: Oh. Gee. I always thought that they were balls of gas burning billions of miles away T: Pumbaa, wit’ you, everything's gas. P: Simba, what do you think? S: Well, I don't know… P: Aw come on. Give, give, give .. Well, come on, Simba, we told you ours... pleeeease? T: Come on, come on... give, give.. S: Well, somebody once told me that the great kings of the past are up there; watching over us. P: Really? T: You mean a bunch of royal dead guys are watching us? Pbbb. From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Systems; explanations we need for everything. The Lion King. 1994

8. huntingmammoths.com Conscious or not we live inside systems Everything is connected. Linear thinking: You may think you are doing just one thing … Mistake: Consider isolated subsystems or just part of the systems From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work …

9. huntingmammoths.com You may think you are doing just one thing … Why is Berlusconi in debt whit Fellini? Cinema - TV & Advertising. From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … La dolce vita, 1960 Anita Ekberg Marcello Mastroianni

10. huntingmammoths.com You may think you are doing just one thing … Sure of what we are doing exactly? From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work …

11. huntingmammoths.com In some places you can be against a system … … but in fact from an alternative system. Marshmallow experiment. Study on delayed gratification. Children deciding between a small reward now or 2 small rewards 15 min. later. Systems may be created real time Researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by educational attainment, body mass index (BMI) ... From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work …

12. huntingmammoths.com You can be against a system, …but someone will anticipate the trends and accommodate them From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to live

13. huntingmammoths.com System structure See the whole picture and understand the reasons of cause effect. From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Patterns of behaviour Understanding the relationship cause effect. Events Just seeing events but not the relationship and /or the why.

14. huntingmammoths.com System structure See the whole picture and understand the reasons of cause effect. From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to work … Patterns of behaviour Understanding the relationship cause effect. Events Just seeing events but not the relationship and /or the why. Reactive How can we react right now? Generative – creative. What are the mental or organizational structures that create this patterns? Adaptive Why is this happening so often ?

15. huntingmammoths.com Map of the session Integrative Thinking Design Thinking Difficulties i Mistakes Cases Definition TV-Cinema Ecology Politics Development Society … Techniques Tree diagram Causal Loops Objectives Review v.1 v.2 Complexity (SPR) Education. Analytical/Systemic Pygmalion effect Diversity of systems - Structure - Behaviour Exercise ThinkingSystems Laziness

16. huntingmammoths.com The most important system in the world ? From now on, you will need “systems thinking” to live

17. huntingmammoths.com Exercise. Explain what is democracy to an alien that belongs to a culture that is much more advanced than ours.

18. huntingmammoths.com Exercise. Explain what is democracy to an alien Comparing to other options and scaling

19. huntingmammoths.com Exercise. Explain what is politics to an alien As a process with a flux of events

20. huntingmammoths.com Exercise. Explain what is politics to an alien Vision of big components

21. huntingmammoths.com Exercise. Explain what is politics to an alien A cloud of interrelated concepts

22. huntingmammoths.com Objectives • Conversation about imperfect and incomplete abstractions of systems. • Apply a couple of techniques to define and act on systems.

23. huntingmammoths.com Laziness of thinking

24. huntingmammoths.com Map of the session Integrative Thinking Design Thinking Difficulties i Mistakes Cases Definition TV-Cinema Ecology Politics Development Society … Techniques Tree diagram Causal Loops Objectives Review v.1 v.2 Complexity (SPR) Education. Analytical/Systemic Pygmalion effect Diversity of systems - Structure - Behaviour Exercise ThinkingSystems Laziness

26. huntingmammoths.com Laziness of thinking Human biology We need to think that we are right.

27. huntingmammoths.com v Human biology We need to think that we are right. Sense of life Experience sensation of knowledge. Laziness of thinking

28. huntingmammoths.com v Human biology We need to think that we are right. Sense of life Experience sensation of knowledge. Behaviour We think we understand more than we understand. Laziness of thinking

29. huntingmammoths.com Human biology We need to think that we are right. Sense of life Experience sensation of knowledge. Behaviour We think we understand more than we understand. Result: Let down the guard and make mistakes v Laziness of thinking

30. huntingmammoths.com v Laziness of thinking Human biology We need to think that we are right. Sense of life Experience sensation of knowledge. Behaviour We think we understand more than we understand. Result: Let down the guard and make mistakes

31. huntingmammoths.com "Americans need the phone, we do not. We have a gang of messenger guys " Sir William Preece, British Post Office, 1876. Laziness of thinking

32. huntingmammoths.com Who the hell want to hear the actors speacking? H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. Laziness of thinking

33. huntingmammoths.com Answer of DECCA Recording Co. to The Beatles. 1962 “We don’t like that sound. Guitar music is finished” Laziness of thinking

34. huntingmammoths.com Laziness of thinking Darryl F. Zanuck. General Manager at 20th Century Fox. 1946 “TV is not going to be in the market for more than six months. People will be bored of looking at the same box all nights”

35. huntingmammoths.com "The global computer market can be as good as about five machines." Thomas Watson, president of IBM. 1943 Laziness of thinking

36. huntingmammoths.com Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment. 1977 “There is no reason to think that people wants to have a computer at home” Laziness of thinking

37. huntingmammoths.com John Sculley. CEO de Apple 1987 "There is no home market for computers" Laziness of thinking

39. huntingmammoths.com Laziness of thinking 9.2

41. huntingmammoths.com A seismic and tsunami alarm system based on SMS sends an alert within 2 minutes of recording the earthquake. Merry Christmas 25 Dec 2004 Laziness of thinking

42. huntingmammoths.com "The problems we have created today in the world can't be solved with the same level of thinking that created them." Laziness of thinking

43. huntingmammoths.com ... if what is designed is complex, not tangible and the effects unforeseeable. Laziness of thinking

44. huntingmammoths.com New thinking for new solutions

45. huntingmammoths.com Map of the session Design Thinking Difficulties i Mistakes Cases Definition TV-Cinema Ecology Politics Development Society … Techniques Tree diagram Causal Loops Objectives Review v.1 v.2 Complexity (SPR) Education. Analytical/Systemic Pygmalion effect Diversity of systems - Structure - Behaviour Exercise ThinkingSystems Laziness Integrative Thinking

46. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions How does great leaders think?

47. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions Considering all the relevant aspects of the problem Multidirectional study of causalities, not just linear. Not losing global and general view while working with parts of the problem or the possible solution Looking for alternative views or solutions to obtain the necessary degree of quality

48. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions Considering all the relevant aspects of the problem Less or non relevant factors Facilitate study and discussions Relevant factors

49. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions Multidirectional study of causalities, not just linear. Optimisation through 360 directionality

50. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions Not losing global and general view while working with parts of the problem or the possible solution Have an eye for detail as well as for all the whole picture

51. huntingmammoths.com Understanding Causalities Architecture Relevance New thinking for new solutions Looking for alternative views or solutions to obtain the necessary degree of quality Try disruptive new ideas vs the norm. Galieo vs. Classical

52. huntingmammoths.com System thinking basics

54. huntingmammoths.com Systems are not easy to understand and predict. Slug Frog Snake

55. huntingmammoths.com Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

56. huntingmammoths.com Common lizards Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

57. huntingmammoths.com Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

58. huntingmammoths.com Slug-frog-snake system simulation. Systems are not easy to understand and predict.

59. huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand life by just studying the dead. Education is mainly analytical

60. huntingmammoths.com Formal education rewards linear thinking. Research with young children indicates that we have latent skills as systems thinkers that are undeveloped, even repressed, by formal education. Reality is made up of circles, but we see straight lines. Herein lies the beginnings of our limitation as systems thinkers. Peter Senge Western languages are biased towards a linear world view The subject-to-verb object structure shapes perception. Our brains are trained to link together thoughts in the same way. Education is mainly analytical

61. huntingmammoths.com Analytic Thinking Understand what the parts do Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the whole Whole = Sum of parts Life & human activity configure complex systems + Systems Thinking What it’s a part of … Understanding functional interdependencies of the parts in the behaviour of the whole Whole = Product of part interactions

62. huntingmammoths.com Inter- dependence in complex systems Life & human activity configure complex systems

63. huntingmammoths.com Irrigation Cotton Agricultural dependence Lots of chemicals … Life & human activity configure complex systems Inter- dependence in complex systems

64. huntingmammoths.com Life & human activity configure complex systems Inter- dependence in complex systems

65. huntingmammoths.com Small events causing disproportionate effects. Friendship Brand & Mandela, a prison warder at Robben Island. 5 August 1962 11 February 1990 Life & human activity configure complex systems

66. huntingmammoths.com Life & human activity configure complex systems

69. huntingmammoths.com Diversity of systems

70. huntingmammoths.com Structure (Capability to understand) Complicated Simplify to make the model understandable Simple Ordered Complex Chaotic Behaviour | Capability to predict) A system is a way of looking at the world .

79. huntingmammoths.com A system must be thought considering it may be: Tightly coupled. Everything may influence everything. Multi dynamics. Changes may occur at many scales and levels. Counterintuitive. Cause and effect may be distant in time and/or space. Policy resistant. Obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the situation. Non-linear. Long term behaviour is often different from short term behaviour. A system is a way of looking at the world.

80. huntingmammoths.com System thinking techniques

82. huntingmammoths.com Design A key discipline for innovation What is design?

83. huntingmammoths.com Design A way of thinking What is design?

84. huntingmammoths.com ... a good tool for any organization to work better as a system Design What is design?

85. huntingmammoths.com ... a way of thinking that should be a subject in the education for any profession Design What is design?

86. huntingmammoths.com ... useful to solve extraordinarily persistent and difficult challenges Design What is design?

87. huntingmammoths.com Exercise of design What is design?

88. huntingmammoths.com 750 millions each day. What is design?

89. huntingmammoths.com Ideas? What is design?

90. huntingmammoths.com More ideas? What is design?

91. huntingmammoths.com + = Just another idea What is design?

92. huntingmammoths.com What is design?

93. huntingmammoths.com Thinking like a designer?

94. huntingmammoths.com How does a designer think?

95. huntingmammoths.com How does a designer think? Imagination

96. huntingmammoths.com How does a designer think? Imagination Rationality

97. huntingmammoths.com Imagination Empathy Rationality How does a designer think?

98. huntingmammoths.com System thinking Tools

100. huntingmammoths.com System thinking tools Brainstorming Dynamic thinking Structural thinking All the components Components relationship Making decisions Combined to achieve deeper insights into dynamic behavior.

101. huntingmammoths.com Q-Q diagram (Ishikawa) Causal loops (Balancing /Reinforcing). Links. Arrows that represent influence between elements in a system. Loops. Combinations of links that reveal interdependencies; In a loop, every element is both the cause and the effect. Engineering techniques can be useful System thinking tools Decision diagrams. Squares. Accumulators: Value produced, sold, gained, etc. Circles. Actions: Measure, communicate, build, etc. Lines. Relationships among components and/or flux of data-commuinications.

102. huntingmammoths.com System thinking tools Q-Q diagram Based on “fishbone” or cause and effect diagram. Captures free flowing thoughts in a structured manner, and distinguishes between “hard” (quantitative) and “soft” (qualitative) variables that affect the issue of interest. Is structured during a brainstorming session; helps participants see the whole system in question.

103. huntingmammoths.com Tree diagram (Ishikawa).

104. huntingmammoths.com Tree diagram (Ishikawa).

105. huntingmammoths.com System thinking tools Causal loop diagram Captures how variables in a system are interrelated, using cause and effect linkages. Can help you identify reinforcing (R) processes, which magnify change, and balancing (B) processes, which seek equilibrium.

106. huntingmammoths.com System thinking tools Policy structure diagram A conceptual map of the decision making process embedded in the organization. Focuses on the factors that are weighed for each decision, and can be used to build a library of generic structures.

107. huntingmammoths.com Power of innovation New products and services

108. huntingmammoths.com Power of innovation New products and services Enhance people from company Measure Pow. of Inn. GAP

109. huntingmammoths.com Power of innovation New products and services Enhance people from company Define desired results Measure Pow. of Inn. GAP Evaluate results

110. huntingmammoths.com Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing). Regulate system behaviour Positive feedback

111. huntingmammoths.com

113. huntingmammoths.com Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing). Regulate system behaviour Positive feedback

114. huntingmammoths.com Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing).

115. huntingmammoths.com Tree diagram. Causal loops (B-R). • Categories and subcategories? • Flux ? • Hierarchies? • More than one place • Centrality of one component • Visual synthesis • Enhancement by adding connections among the components. Causal loops (Balancing/reinforcing).

116. huntingmammoths.com Task Understand model and predict.

117. huntingmammoths.com Apply a System Thinking method to understand a model and predict its behaviour. Objective Do not confuse system whit project Value is the result Thinking is hard and needs an effort This is an exercise of thinking Need connect and attention be careful with being tired

118. huntingmammoths.com 1 2 3 Understand, Model, Predict! List and order the elements of a system using a Q-Q diagram. Build a system model with the previous components using a B/R loop. Check the potential impact of actions into the system using the previous models. Tasks

119. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 1. Model, List & order the elements of a system using a tree diagrame.

120. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 1. Model, List & order the elements of a system using a tree diagrame.

121. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 2. Understand, Build a system model with components using a B/R loop

122. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 3. Predict. Check the potential impact of actions

126. huntingmammoths.com In the real world, boundaries don’t exist. There are only boundaries of thought, perception and social agreement.

127. huntingmammoths.com Exercise: Drafting the health system. Check up Blood test, blood pressure, etc. Diagnostic tests Radiology, magnetic resonance imaging, etc. Chronic care Diseases for life or long time. Urgencies A flu, a broken arm, etc. Acute care A heart attack, a cancer, etc. Health education Citizen’s level of health knowledge. Addictions Cigarettes, drinks, stupefies, etc. Nutrition Correct habits and healthy eating. Environment Levels of pollution in air, water quality, etc. Exercise Physical activity, sports, etc. Workplace Healthy places for workers. Public coverage Universal health assistance. Private coverage Privately contracted health insurance. Health authorities Institutions managing the health system. Health services Hospitals, primary care centres, etc. Interconnect the components, putting users in the centre

128. huntingmammoths.com Exercise: Drafting the health system. Figurative version

129. huntingmammoths.com Exercise: Drafting the health system. Synthetic version

130. huntingmammoths.com The expression of a classical system.

131. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 1. Model, List & order the elements of a system using a tree diagram.

132. huntingmammoths.com Tasks 2. Understand, Build a system model with components using a B/R loop

135. huntingmammoths.com Explore possibilities Divergent thinking Select & decide what to do Convergent thinking Design thinking. Creative system analysis approach

System thinking elisava nov19 seg

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