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Pulse expectations - A moving target or a sure thing? - Ron Storey [Tooleybuc]

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Pulse Expectations???
Moving Target or A Sure Thing?

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Pulse expectations - A moving target or a sure thing? - Ron Storey [Tooleybuc]

  1. 1. Pulse Expectations??? Moving Target or A Sure Thing?
  2. 2. GRDC’s own words…..!!!!! Nov 2017 - “Pulsating Pulses: Expanding Pulse Crops” Feb 2018 – “Has the Pulse Bubble Burst?
  3. 3. 4 Stories….. 1.Water story 2.Protein story 3.Health story 4.Pulse story
  4. 4. 1. Water Story?
  5. 5. China World’s largest population 1.4bn … predicted to be world’s largest economy…
  6. 6. Shanghai – Huangpu/Yangtze River
  7. 7. India Population 1.3bn … to overtake China
  8. 8. Ganges River
  9. 9. Brazil Holds 12% of world’s fresh water….. threatened by deforestation, agriculture, infrastructure…#5 population
  10. 10. Nigera Africa’s most populous nation ….world #7… 60 million without safe water, >100m without sanitation….
  11. 11. Pakistan 200M……world #6.. millions lack safe water and sanitation
  12. 12. Taking a break on way to collect water….
  13. 13. 5 out of top 7…
  14. 14. “Has the pulse bubble burst?”...... • Water and food story….. is as valid as ever • Need as much food in the next decade as world has produced to date • In my view…… • “The pulse bubble has not burst; it is not a bubble, it is more like Paul Kelly’s song: …”From little things, big things grow……”
  15. 15. 2. Protein Story? • Population • Income • Protein (animal) • Feed grains
  16. 16. China Soybean Imports 1995-2017 Zero to 100Mmt in 22 years 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  17. 17. 2. Health Story? • Human Health • Planet Health • Wallet Health
  18. 18. FACTOR ATTRIBUTES ? HUMAN Nutrition: lo fat, lo GI, GF, health compounds Diseases: Diabetes, Obesity, Cancer  PLANET Environment: -stellar water converter to protein -fixes nitrogen to soil; less greenhouse gas  WALLET Affordability: -pulse protein = 50% cost of soybean meal -$/kg animal protein vs $kg plant protein  Pulse Health Trifecta 7 August 2013 © Copyright NZX Ltd. 2013 20
  19. 19. 1kg Red Meat Footprint 1kg Pulses 26 KG CO2 CARBON 1.55 KG CO2 15,500 LITRES WATER 2,900 LITRES 109 GLOBAL SQ M ECOLOGICAL 19 GLOBAL SQ M Human Planet Wallet 7 August 2013 © Copyright NZX Ltd. 2013 21
  20. 20. Chickpea – a mainstream flour? “Artesa flour” ….. 8 Feb 2018 • “Taste …… continues as the No. 1 driver of consumer food choice. • The Artesa project ..”… addressed the issues of taste and product quality.…. demonstrated that we have achieved these goals.” • “They could spread peanut butter on the bread without tearing the bread.”
  21. 21. 4 Stories….. 1. Water story 2. Protein story 3. Health story 4. Pulse story FACTS?
  22. 22. Crop Global Aust Corn 900 mmt 8 mmt (barley) Wheat 700 mmt 25 mmt Soybeans 250 mmt 2-3 mmt (canola) Pulses 60 mmt 2-2.5 mmt Pulses in context… so far, are small
  23. 23. 50 years 1961 2012 % Corn 200 900 +330% Rice 220 700 +230% Wheat 230 700 +210% Soybeans 25 260 +850% Pulses 35 60 +70% Pulses – some catching up to do World Production, last 50 years
  24. 24. Australian Pulse Production 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Chickpeas Lupins Lentils Fabas Field Peas
  25. 25. World Chick Pea Production India dominates; Australia largest exporter 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 India Australia Pakistan Turkey Other
  26. 26. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada India Turkey United States Australia Other World Lentil Production Canada Dominates
  27. 27. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada United States France Russia Australia Ukraine Indian Subcont. Other World Field Pea Production Canada Dominates and Russia
  28. 28. BUT….The PULSE is strong!!!
  29. 29. Pulses trending… lets go shopping
  30. 30. Product Manufacturer Health * Origin Lentil Salad Chick peas Soup Kit Yellow Splits Pulses trending… lets go shopping
  31. 31. Pulses trending… let’s go shopping!
  32. 32. Product Manufacturer Health * Origin Lentil Salad Edgell / Simplot 4.5 Spain Chick peas Macro/WW 5.0 Italy Soup Kit McKenzies ??? 65% Aus Yellow Splits McKenzies ??? 100% Aus Pulses trending… lets go shopping
  33. 33. Pulses trending… Consumer driven • What we eat matters – COOL, content • Millennials driving change, 18-35 y/o’s • The attitude of “Big Food” is changing • BFY* foods out-stripping traditional foods • Pulse is a stellar converter of water to protein • A global dietary shift is afoot….. * BFY = Better for you
  34. 34. Traditional Novel Whole pulses Flours & fractions Soups Batter & breading Sauces Bakery Dips, spreads Beverages Ready to eat Meat analogues Snacks (China) There is a shift occurring
  35. 35. OK, OK… what about price?
  36. 36. CHICK PEAS Summary: • Lo $400, Hi $1200 • “Normal range” $500-700? • Volatility – high, more upside (say +$200) than downside (say -$100) • India factor – market and policy
  37. 37. LENTILS Summary: • Lo $400, Hi $1400 • “Normal range” $400-800? • Volatility – high • ISC market foibles • Canada huge competitor
  38. 38. FABA BEANS Summary: • Lo $200, Hi $600 • “Normal range” $300-450? • Volatility – moderate/high • Mainly domestic feed protein market, plus Egypt (volatile)
  39. 39. FIELD PEAS Summary: • Lo $270, Hi $600 • “Normal range” $300-400? • Volatility – moderate • Mainly domestic feed protein market
  40. 40. Summary • Pulses are shifting from niche crop to mainstream • The trifecta HEALTH story, replacing the PROTEIN story • Consumer, millennial driven • IYP 2016 >>>> Annual UN World Pulse Day, 10 Feb • This is a 10-20 year journey – bumps along the way • THE PULSES TRIFECTA – your BODY, your PLANET, your WALLET!
  41. 41. TO WIN THE TRIFECTA, WE SHOULD GROW PULSES! ron@storeymarketing.com.au +61 418 332431
  42. 42. Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) A Level 4, East Building, 4 National Circuit, Barton, ACT 2600 Australia P PO Box 5367 Kingston, ACT 2604 Australia T +61 2 6166 4500 F +61 2 6166 4599 www.grdc.com.au @thegrdc @GRDCNorth #GRDCUpdates Thank you – Questions?

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