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Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Understanding the link between air
pollution and distribution of rel...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Why?
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
WHO report 25/3-2014
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
WHO report 28/4-2015
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Total number of cases o...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
The main challenge of r...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Atmospheric particles c...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
The main challenge of r...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
to further understand t...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
What, How and Who?
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Overall project:
30 mio...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Outcome and added Nordi...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
The integrated THOR mod...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Outcome and added Nordi...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
The EVA system – Econom...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Total number of cases i...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Further outcome and add...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Partners:
Denmark
1. Aa...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Partners:
Norway
11. No...
NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015,
Aarhus University
Department of Environmental Science
Further information
Pro...
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Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health impacts and welfare in the Nordic countries - NordicWelfAir

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Jørgen Brandt

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Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health impacts and welfare in the Nordic countries - NordicWelfAir

  1. 1. Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health impacts and welfare in the Nordic countries - NordicWelfAir (formerly known as ADHIW) Jørgen Brandt and Camilla Geels Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University
  2. 2. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Why?
  3. 3. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science WHO report 25/3-2014
  4. 4. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science WHO report 28/4-2015
  5. 5. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Total number of cases of premature deaths in Europe Calculated using EVA for the total air pollution levels A total of 680000 cases decreasing to 570000 in 2011 and 450000 in 2020 Total external costs: 800 bn. Euros In Denmark: 3500 cases per year 4 bn. Euros per year (~2% of GDP) Brandt et al., 2013, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
  6. 6. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science The main challenge of regulating air pollution The knowns: › there is a clear relationship between atmospheric particle concentrations (total PM2.5) and health impacts. › health impacts are related to major costs for society and to our welfare › the health impacts and related costs are not equally distributed between countries or within population groups in each country The known unknowns: › We do not know which parts of PM2.5 are most harmful to human health and which are not. › This is important since different emission sources have different emission profiles with respect to chemical composition
  7. 7. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Atmospheric particles can be divided into primary emitted or secondary formed particles. Other chemical species are attached to the particles. Sources are both anthropogenic and natural Primary aerosols › Organic carbon (OC) › Elemental carbon (BC/EC) › Mineral dust › sea salt, sand, soil, etc › Pollen, bacteria Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) › NO3 -, NH4 + and SO4 2- Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) › Monoterpenes… Other chemical species attached: › Metals, dioxins, PAHs, POPs, etc What is an atmospheric particle anyway? PM2.5 i gade og bybaggrund 0 5 10 15 20 25 Gade Bybaggrund PM2.5(µg/m3 ) Udstødning Bremser Vejslid m.v. Vejsalt Primære, ikke trafik Sekundære organiske+ukendt Sekundære uorganiske (ammonium, nitrat, sulfat) Naturligt (jord, hav etc.)
  8. 8. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science The main challenge of regulating air pollution › The “easy” solution is to remove all anthropogenic emissions to avoid health impacts. › However – this would also have a fatal impact on our welfare. › The main challenge is to regulate air pollution optimally taking into account: › Different health impact from different particles (and sources – e.g. are particles from wood stoves and traffic more harmful than particles from agriculture?) › Distribution of health Impacts on different population groups › Geographical distribution of health impacts › Impacts on welfare – both on the individual and national level Can only be solved via a very interdisciplinary project
  9. 9. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science to further understand the link between air pollution levels, chemical composition and health, and to investigate and assess the effects of air pollution on the distribution of related health impacts, socio-economics and welfare in the Nordic countries NordicWelfAir - overall aim::
  10. 10. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science What, How and Who?
  11. 11. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Overall project: 30 mio. NOK 5 years 5 Nordic countries 16 partner 66 scientists 6 work packages
  12. 12. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Outcome and added Nordic value › A common unique Nordic emission database of the different important air pollution components on a very high geographical resolution of 1 km x 1 km over 25 years (WP1). › A common Nordic air pollution modelling framework, where Nordic models from hemispheric scales, continental scale, national scale and urban scale are coupled to form an integrated system, capable of calculating air pollution levels at very high geographical resolution (down to 1 km x 1 km) for all the Nordic countries over >25 years (WP2).
  13. 13. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science The integrated THOR model system DEHM UBM OSPM 50% 20% 10% 20% Brandt et al., 2001, Atm. Env., Vol. 35, Sup. No. 1, pp. S91-S98, 2001
  14. 14. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Outcome and added Nordic value › A common Nordic health, register, and epidemiological research, to obtain new knowledge concerning the impacts from atmospheric concentrations of gasses and particles as function of chemical composition and sources of the particles. The outcome of this research has the potential to act as the new international standard for exposure-response relationships with respect to air pollution (WP3). › A common Nordic assessment and quantification of the health outcome and related cost to society from air pollution at very high resolution (down to 1 km x 1 km) over decades (WP4). › A common Nordic welfare study, to create new knowledge about impacts from air pollution on the distribution of health and well- being among target groups at national and local level, and the present and future challenges these imply for the welfare systems in the Nordic countries (WP5).
  15. 15. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science The EVA system – Economic Valuation of Air pollution Based on the impact pathway chain Main output: • Estimates of health impacts • External cost • kg prices
  16. 16. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Total number of cases in Denmark Health impact Number of cases in DK Year 2012 Chronic Bronchitis 3360 Restricted Activity Days 3430000 Respiratory Hospital Admissions 170 Cerebrovascular Hospital Admissions 420 Congestive Heart Failure 310 Lung Cancer 510 Bronchodilator Use Children 90000 Bronchodilator Use Adults 657000 Cough Children 311000 Cough Adults 676000 Lower Respiratory Symptoms Children 120000 Lower Respiratory Symptoms Adults 244000 Acute premature deaths 98 Chronic YOLL 35700 No. of premature deaths 3470 Infant mortality 4
  17. 17. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Further outcome and added Nordic value › New Nordic partnerships within the fields of emission inventories, integrated air pollution modelling, health and register research, socio-economic and welfare research and policy development. creating a totally new interdisciplinary scientific collaboration in the Nordic perspective. › Basic and interdisciplinary research setting new international standards and on research based policy development, directly contributing to address and provide solutions to the challenges of the Nordic welfare systems. › In relation to negotiations of international emission reductions/ceilings the obtained knowledge will form a common basis for the Nordic countries to act on.
  18. 18. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Partners: Denmark 1. Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science (AU-ENVS) (all WPs) 2. Aarhus University, Department of Public Health (AU-DPH) (WP3) 3. Aarhus University, CIRRAU (AU-CIRRAU) (WP3) 4. Danish Cancer Society Research Center (DCRC) (WP3) Finland 5. Finnish environment institute (SYKE) (WP1 & WP5) 6. Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) (WP2) 7. National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (WP3 & WP4) Sweden 8. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) (WP1 & WP2) 9. Umeå University (UMU) (WP3) 10.Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. (IVL) (WP4)
  19. 19. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Partners: Norway 11. Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) (WP1) 12. Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) (WP5) 13. Vista Analysis (Vista) (WP4) 14. Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) (WP3) Iceland 15. The National University Hospital/University of Iceland (Landspitali) (WP3) 16. University of Iceland (UI) (WP1 and WP2)
  20. 20. NordForsk Kickoff meeting, October 22, 2015, Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Further information Prof. Jørgen Brandt, jbr@envs.au.dk Kick of meeting: 16-18 September 2015

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