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Analysing Climate Actions and their Global Consequences

Council on Energy, Environment and Water (EEW). Sudatta Ray. June 7, 2015. Bonn, Germany

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Analysing Climate Actions and their Global Consequences

  1. 1. Analysing Climate Actions and their Global Consequences Sudatta Ray Junior Research Associate Council on Energy, Environment and Water Technical Practitioners’ Workshop on Methodologies for Analysing Mitigation INDCs Bonn, 07 June 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015
  2. 2. | Contents 1 • China’s past commitments and ambition trajectory • Comparison between India and China’s climate actions • Analysis of carbon space in 2030
  3. 3. | China could increase its ambition on its non-fossil fuel energy consumption, were it to grow its share at a constant rate of growth 2SOURCE: SCIO Breifing on Climate Change (2014); National People’s Congress (2011); The Guardian (2009); The White House (2014) Copenhagen Pre-Lima 12th FYP Press Release, September 2014 China’s Declarations on Non-Fossil Fuel Consumption
  4. 4. | India and China - differences in emissions and climate ambitions in the past, present and future 3SOURCE: World Bank Data, GCAM, CEC (2012) India’s aggregate emissions were a fraction of China’s in the past 2000 Aggregate Emissions (Gt of CO2 eq.) India 1.187 China 3.405 India’s emissions intensity continue to be lower than China’s today 2010 Emissions Intensity (CO2 kg/ PPP of $ GDP.) India 0.4 China 0.7 India’s ambitions for renewable energy continue to march ahead of China’s 2020 Renewable Energy Contribution to Electricity (%) India 13.8% China 5.0%
  5. 5. | Less than half the permissible carbon space is available for the rest of the world in 2030 and 2050 4SOURCE: CEEW Analysis; UNEP, Emissions Gap Report, 2013 50 With the current pledges, <50% of this space is available for the rest of the world 1.4 The rest of the world would gain 1.4 CO2 eq. of carbon space through a cost-optimized approach of limiting temperature rise to 2oC 36 36 Gt of CO2 eq. is the permissible carbon space for the world in 2030
  6. 6. | Conclusion 5 • Leadership from the Major Emitting Regions has not been forthcoming • When compared with China, India has shown leadership in the climate arena and continues to do so • Assuming a linear growth in Non-Fossil Fuel contribution in its primary energy mix, China could push beyond its stated 2030 target.
  7. 7. | THANK YOU 6
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