1.
AGENDA
• Global emissions – why so little progress since 1990?
• Why has Kyoto failed?
• What are the flaws in the Paris Agreement?

2.
GLOBAL EMISSIONS
• Carbon emissions keep increasing
• The path since 1990 has been unremittingly upwards
• 1990-2020: 30 greatest years for the fossil fuel industries
• No evidence of any slowdown

3.
CARBON SINCE 1000

4.
CARBON SINCE 1990

5.
Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Global coal consumption,
Million tonnes per year
GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION SINCE 1990

6.
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
50
0
60
10
30
70
20
40
80
90
100
Global oil consumption,
Million barrels per day
• Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research
OIL SINCE 1990

7.
Global natural gas consumption,
Billion cubic metres per year
Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
GLOBAL GAS CONSUMPTION SINCE 1990

8.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2035 20402020 2025 2030
Global coal consumption forecast1,
Million tonnes per year
• Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research
• Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018
PROJECTIONS FOR 2040
IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS

9.
• Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research
• Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
203520302020 2025 2040
Global oil consumption
forecast1,
Million barrels per day
PROJECTIONS FOR 2040
IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS

10.
• Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research
• Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
20352020 2025 2030 2040
Global natural gas consumption
forecast1,
Billion cubic meters per year
PROJECTIONS FOR 2040
IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS

11.
• From 7bn to 10 bn people by 2100
• Global GDP up 3-4 % p.a.
• China, India, Africa GDP up 6-8% p.a. = x2 every 10 years
WORLD ENERGY X 16 ++
+
3 BILLION MORE PEOPLE
2100 BASELINE =
THE SHEER SCALE OF THE
CHALLENGE

12.
BY CONTRAST – THE UK
• >1% Global emissions
• GDP growth 1-2% p.a. max (GDP per head > 1% p.a.)
• Population +10 million to 70m +

13.
WHY HAS KYOTO FAILED?
• European based
• Only developed countries in annex A with targets
• Clinton’s U-turn & US energy independence
• Japan’s nuclear disaster
• Canada, Australia all fossil fuel driven

14.
WHAT ARE THE FLAWS IN PARIS?
• The lack of legally binding targets
• The lack of a consumption basis
• The heterogenous nature of the pledges – carbon intensity vs. carbon production
• The absence of the US
• The lack of a credible framework of action from Africa, India and China and the
century long destruction of the Amazon…