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HELM TALKS: Net Zero Lecture 1

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Dieter Helm's lecture series on Net Zero

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HELM TALKS: Net Zero Lecture 1

  1. 1. AGENDA • Global emissions – why so little progress since 1990? • Why has Kyoto failed? • What are the flaws in the Paris Agreement?
  2. 2. GLOBAL EMISSIONS • Carbon emissions keep increasing • The path since 1990 has been unremittingly upwards • 1990-2020: 30 greatest years for the fossil fuel industries • No evidence of any slowdown
  3. 3. CARBON SINCE 1000
  4. 4. CARBON SINCE 1990
  5. 5. Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Global coal consumption, Million tonnes per year GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION SINCE 1990
  6. 6. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 50 0 60 10 30 70 20 40 80 90 100 Global oil consumption, Million barrels per day • Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research OIL SINCE 1990
  7. 7. Global natural gas consumption, Billion cubic metres per year Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018, Aurora Energy Research 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 GLOBAL GAS CONSUMPTION SINCE 1990
  8. 8. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 2035 20402020 2025 2030 Global coal consumption forecast1, Million tonnes per year • Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research • Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018 PROJECTIONS FOR 2040 IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS
  9. 9. • Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research • Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 203520302020 2025 2040 Global oil consumption forecast1, Million barrels per day PROJECTIONS FOR 2040 IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS
  10. 10. • Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, Aurora Energy Research • Notes: 1) Linear interpolation of 2017 historic and 2025,2030,2035 and 2040 forecast demand data points provided by the IEA for its NPS scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2018 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 20352020 2025 2030 2040 Global natural gas consumption forecast1, Billion cubic meters per year PROJECTIONS FOR 2040 IEA NEW POLICY SCENARIOS
  11. 11. • From 7bn to 10 bn people by 2100 • Global GDP up 3-4 % p.a. • China, India, Africa GDP up 6-8% p.a. = x2 every 10 years WORLD ENERGY X 16 ++ + 3 BILLION MORE PEOPLE 2100 BASELINE = THE SHEER SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE
  12. 12. BY CONTRAST – THE UK • >1% Global emissions • GDP growth 1-2% p.a. max (GDP per head > 1% p.a.) • Population +10 million to 70m +
  13. 13. WHY HAS KYOTO FAILED? • European based • Only developed countries in annex A with targets • Clinton’s U-turn & US energy independence • Japan’s nuclear disaster • Canada, Australia all fossil fuel driven
  14. 14. WHAT ARE THE FLAWS IN PARIS? • The lack of legally binding targets • The lack of a consumption basis • The heterogenous nature of the pledges – carbon intensity vs. carbon production • The absence of the US • The lack of a credible framework of action from Africa, India and China and the century long destruction of the Amazon…

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