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Presentation 03 Dr. Felipe Dizon

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Presentation 03 Dr. Felipe Dizon

  1. 1. Food Prices, Diet Quality & Nutrition in South Asia Dr. Felipe Dizon Economist World Bank U. S. Sustainable Food System & Diets Implication & Relevance for Nutrition Security Contributed event organizer:
  2. 2. Food Affordability, Diet Quality, and Nutrition in South Asia Felipe Dizon World Bank Symposium on Sustainable Food Systems & Diets: Implications & Relevance for Nutrition Security March 2018
  3. 3. Source: IFPRI, Global Hunger Index, 2017
  4. 4. In South Asia, many are undernourished… 18% 46% 21% 17% 14% 22% 23% 30% 15% 23% 15% 15% 9% 8% 20% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka 1999-01 2014-16 Prevalence of undernourishment in South Asia by country and selected years (%) Source: SOFI FAO
  5. 5. ...And many experience chronic undernutrition Source: DHS for various years, SAR WB undernutrition report
  6. 6. Source: Turner et al., FEWG technical brief
  7. 7. The price of nutritious vs less nutritious food Source: Headey and Alderman, 2018 Calorie price ratios in low income and high income countries
  8. 8. The price of nutritious vs less nutritious food Source: Headey and Alderman, 2018
  9. 9. SAFANSI: South Asia Food and Nutrition Security Initiative Launched in 2010 to support innovative pilots and analytical work • Informed key policies: Bangladesh (NPAN2) and Nepal (MSNP) • Leveraged $2.2 billion, supporting 16 million beneficiaries Research initiatives on affordability of nutritious food: 1. Measuring the cost of nutritious food in South Asia 2. Linking food prices to diet quality in Bangladesh
  10. 10. Cost of Nutritious Food in South Asia The price of a typical food basket can deviate from that of a nutritious food basket. We can capture nutritious food by using: • Food-based dietary guidelines: recommended diet • Designed to provide both nutrient adequacy and prevention of diet-related non- communicable disease within a culturally-acceptable diet • Nutritional scores for food items: NuVal scores • Score of overall nutritional quality; upgrades components that aid health (nutrients, fiber, and phytochemicals) and downgrades those that harm health (salt, sugar, trans fats, saturated fats, and cholesterol) Source: Dizon and Herforth, 2018
  11. 11. 1) How much does it cost to meet a recommended diet?
  12. 12. The cost of a recommended diet in South Asia Sri Lanka: 187 rupees per person per day ($2.05 2011PPP). Or 130% of the food poverty line (meeting 2,030 calories). Pakistan: 84 rupees per person per day ($1.42 2011PPP). Afghanistan: 44 afghanis per person per day. Or 115% of the food poverty line.
  13. 13. The potential role for market integration
  14. 14. 2) How fast has the cost of a nutritious food basket been increasing? India
  15. 15. NuVal weights vs Food CPI budget shares India
  16. 16. Cost of nutritious diets and typical food basket diverge over time India
  17. 17. Food Prices, Diet Quality, and Nutrition in Bangladesh • Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) • Conducted by IFPRI in 2011 and 2015 • Representative of rural households in Bangladesh • Has data on plot-level agricultural production, food consumption, and nutrition outcomes • Will extend the analysis using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES, 2010 and 2016) Source: Dizon and Wang, 2018
  18. 18. Malnutrition in multiple forms in Bangladesh Nutritional status of children under 5BMI among women age 15-49
  19. 19. Measuring diet quality in rural Bangladesh
  20. 20. How much of which food is consumed, and by whom?
  21. 21. Correlation of food consumption with child nutrition outcomes
  22. 22. Correlation of food consumption with adult nutrition outcomes
  23. 23. Constructing a food consumption score linked to reduction of adult underweight
  24. 24. 2015 HDDS 2015 Consumption score linked to prevention of adult underweight
  25. 25. 3) How do food prices correlate with diet quality? (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) FOOD GROUP PRICES Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) Consumption Score (adult underweight) Food Consumption Score (FCS) Women's Dietary Diveristy Score (WDDS) Minimum Acceptable Diet Groups (MAD) Cereals -26.7*** -19.2** -256.8** -9.8* -40.8*** Tubers & roots 8.4*** 14.5*** 125.6*** 3.2 4.7 Vegetables -20.2* -15.4** -297.8** -12.7 -49.2** Fruits -0.4 1.5* -8.5 -0.5 -3.0* Legumes -2.0 -1.6 9.7 -0.4 0.7 Meat -1.2 -0.3 -14.1 0.1 2.1 Eggs 5.5*** 3.0* 40.3 0.8 5.9 Fish 7.7*** 4.0** 41.9 4.9*** 4.1 Dairy 0.0 -0.7*** 2.4 0.2 -0.4 Oils & fats 1.0 0.7 -0.7 -1.0 5.8 Sweets 1.9 2.3 35.7 6.6 -9.3 Spices -1.4 -10.4 -16.5 -1.2 -23.0 MEASURE OF DIET QUALITY
  26. 26. Summary 1. Cost of a recommended diet is higher than a calorie-based only diet, and perishable foods drive variation in cost of the recommended diet across regions. 2. The cost of a nutritious food basket is rising faster and is more seasonal than the cost of a typical food basket. 3. Higher cereal and vegetable prices are negatively correlated with various measures of diet quality. 4. Carefully consider dimensions of diet quality: for which stage of the life cycle, and for which form of malnutrition.
  27. 27. Moving forward: rural vs urban diet quality

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