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Copper requirements to build a near-100% renewable electricity system in Europe

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This presentation tries to answer the question how much copper will be required for a new 100% renewable electricity system. It covers power generation, transmission and electromobility. Distribution grids, smart buildings and heating systems are weakly covered and will be adddressed in other reports from European Copper Institute.

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Copper requirements to build a near-100% renewable electricity system in Europe

  1. 1. Copper requirements to build a near-100% renewable electricity system in Europe Fall 2016 European Copper Institute
  2. 2. 2 Introduction to the energy transition in Europe
  3. 3. 3 The EU is driving a major change on its whole energy system which will have an important impact on copper usage  According to the European Commission, the “energy transition is perhaps best defined as a shift from a system dominated by finite (chiefly fossil-based) energy towards a system using a majority of renewable energy sources, also maximizing the opportunities available from increased energy efficiency and better management of energy demand”  The European Union's energy policies are driven by three main objectives:  “We want secure energy supplies to ensure the reliable provision of energy whenever and wherever needed  We want to ensure that energy providers operate in a competitive environment that ensures affordable prices for homes, businesses, and industries  We want our energy consumption to be sustainable, through the lowering of greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and fossil fuel dependence”  “To make the transition to a competitive energy system, the EU needs to overcome a number of challenges, such as increasingly scarce resources, growing energy needs and climate change” Source: Urban Innovative Actions (EU Commission); Energy Department of the EU Commission The energy transition has an impact on copper usage implementation through its various components. The objective of this document is the description of these components, for these in turn act as drivers of the use of copper
  4. 4. 4 The EU has set specific targets for several objectives within the energy transition which can represent challenges as well as opportunities for the copper industry • The energy transition is structured around seven components, which have been evaluated according to their importance for the copper industry  To pursue these goals within a coherent long- term strategy, the EU has formulated targets for 2020, 2030, and 2050  Missing components that should be also considered are an electro-mobility penetration target and a strong policy for the transport sector in general Objectives and research areas/ components of the energy transition European Targets Relative importance for the ECI2020 2030 2050 Reduction in Greenhouse gas emission 20% 40% 80-90%  Improvements in energy efficiency 20% 27% -  Share of RES in final gross energy consumption 20% 27% -  A single, smart European electricity grid, increasing interconnections 10% 15% -  New knowledge and technologies - - -  Robust decision making and public engagement - - -  Market uptake of energy and ICT innovation - - -  Source: ”Horizon 2020” by the European Commission; CREARA Analysis Legend for the relative importance classification:  – Low;  – Medium;  – High Note: Reduction targets are referring to reduction with respect to 1990 levels
  5. 5. 5 Annual emissions Mtons CDE 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5.1685.665 5.313 5.215 4.782 4.282 The horizon 2020 target for GHG emissions has already been reached, but current achievements are not enough to meet future targets Source: Eurostat; CREARA Analysis Horizon 2020 target GHG emissions • GHG emission have been significantly reduced and the target for the year 2020 has been already reached in 2013. However, additional work needs to be done in order to achieve long-term targets • There are several key drivers for this trend:  There is a lower GHG- emission intensity of GDP  Milder winters ground lower heat demands by households  Primary energy consumption declined overall, while the consumption of renewables increased in terms of primary energy  The financial crisis has played an important role • The components of the energy transition (like increased RES deployment, improved grid infrastructure) contribute to achieving lower emissions Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, EU-28, base year 1990 CAGR -1,16% Horizon 2030 target Horizon 2050 target Note: 2030 targets are EU level, not national
  6. 6. 6 Importance of the energy transition for copper
  7. 7. 7 This chapter of the presentation has been structured in three areas of the energy transition which are subdivided into several components Generation T&D Demand A. Share trends B. Copper intensity by technology C. Projected capacities D. New investments and retirements E. Copper in solar PV F. Copper in Wind A. Copper in electric vehicles and chargers B. Energy Efficiency Solutions i. Copper in the electrification of heating systems ii. Impact of demand response in distribution systems iii. Copper in storage A. Self-consumption schemes B. RES grid’s requirements C. New interconnections D. Copper in transmission and distribution grids 1 2 3
  8. 8. 8 Electricity generation from renewable energies (RES) is leading the energy transition, although further efforts are necessary to reach the set goals in terms of total energy consumption 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Share of total energy from renewable sources, gross final consumption of energy, EU-28 Horizon 2020 target RES share Source: Eurostat; EC Energy; Creara Analysis 3.2 57% 54% 54% 54% 51% 43% 31% 32% 31% 30% 27% 27% 13% 14% 15% 15% 21% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 3.02.6 2.7 3.3 3.3 Annual Production TWh Fossil Fuels Nuclear Renewables Others Share of energy from renewable sources in terms of electricity production by fuel, EU-28 2,67% CAGR Horizon 2030 target 4% Note: Fossil fuels include all conventional thermal sources; RES include wind, solar and hydroelectric sources 1.A • Gross final consumption of energy from RES is still not enough to meet the goals in the EU, so additional actions need to be taken • In spite of accounting for the 50% of the EU’s energy consumption, only the 16% of heating and cooling is generated from renewable sources; so this sector must sharply adopt the energy transition In order to fulfil the EU’s targets
  9. 9. 9 Wind is playing a major role in RES penetration in the mid-term and should continue to grow in the coming years; solar is the RES technology with the strongest growth (2005 - 2020) Source: European Environment Agency; Creara Analysis 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2012 2013 2014 2020E 39% of total elec. mix. Hydro Onshore Offshore Biomass Biofuels Solar Others Mtoe 29%25%15% 26% RES electricity production share evolution, EU-28 32,62% CAGR 8,53% 7,16% 32,42% 7,54% 11,6% 0,48% 1.A • The required investments to achieve the desired RES capacity will have implications in other elements of the energy system that will be discussed later on:  T&D grid infrastructure  Interconnections  Electro-mobility  Self-consumption models  Heating and cooling systems
  10. 10. 10 Hydropower will reduce its weight significantly until 2050 by when wind will have the largest power capacities, followed by biofuels and solar Source: European Environment Agency; Creara Analysis Historical and forecasted power capacity mix, EU-28 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2015 2020 2050 Hydro Wind Biofuels Solar Others Fossil Fuels Nuclear 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2050 Note: Biofuels include also biomass; Others includes geothermal and ocean 1.A GW
  11. 11. 11 Generation technologies are copper-intensive, especially RES generation technologies like offshore wind, ocean and solar installations • Copper intensities of generation technologies are high, especially RES technologies such as offshore wind (close to 10 times the copper used in nuclear installations) • There are significant differences between technologies though, the ECI should therefore encourage the installation of the most copper-intensive technologies  Biomass is a less copper-intensive generation technology than other renewable electricity generation, while being environment friendly • The shift to photovoltaics (PV) and wind generation is a shift to more copper-intensive technologies, but also to technologies with shorter expected life. Depending on the share of copper that can be recycled, this may lead to significantly higher copper needs which may be especially true in the case of offshore wind generation, where a lower share of recyclable copper is expected  It has to be noted that there is a limited real world experience with these technologies, and expected life of currently built facilities may exceed the expectations, as it is already happening ton Cu / MW Wind offshore 6,78 Ocean 4,50 PV 4,11 Solar Thermal 4,00 Hydro 3,11 Geothermal 3,00 Wind onshore 2,79 Biomass 1,20 Hydrogen 1,10 Gas Fired 1,10 Oil Fired 1,10 Solids fired 0,90 Nuclear 0,69 Estimation of copper intensities in generation (2015) Source: “100% RES Scenario Analysis” by CREARA 1.B
  12. 12. 12 Scenarios have been developed with an electricity system that is based on nearly 100% on renewable technologies (in 2050) EU 2050 (GW) E[r] 2050 (GW) Photovoltaic 603 570 Wind onshore 612 306 Wind offshore 373 186 Ocean 30 44 Solar Thermal 0 81 Hydro 131 165 Biomass 163 72 Geothermal 4 56 Hydrogen 0 5 Gas Fired 182 64 Solids fired 62 0 Oil Fired 19 0 Nuclear 41 0 TOTAL 2.220 1.549 • Both scenarios propose an extreme transformation of the power sector that, while feasible, is going to be very difficult to achieve, especially if we consider the recent 2030 targets set by the EU. Indeed, the current situation suggests that the target of a 100% RES electric power sector in Europe will not be reached by 2050  While being clearly disruptive, the EU scenario tries to make the changes less aggressive to existing infrastructure and industries, such as conventional generation, transport, heat generation, and others  The Greenpeace scenario (E[r] scenario) tries to rethink all infrastructure and industries from ground up • The most obvious difference between the two scenarios is the total installed capacity, which is almost 50% higher in the EU scenario. This is due to the different adopted solutions regarding the power sector structure  The EU 2050 represent an under-optimized solution from a technical point of view but the most likely solution from a political and economic perspective  Energy E[r] 2050 represent a solution where optimization has probably been pushed as far as possible Projected generation capacities in 2050 Note: Solar thermal generation is included in PV generation Source: The EC report “Energy Roadmap 2050”; The Greenpeace “Energy [R]evolution in Europe” report from 2012 1.C
  13. 13. 13 Copper usage will increase in the generation sector since RES technologies are more copper-intensive than conventional ones, there are significant differences according to scenarios though • The graph shows the resulting estimation of total copper content in EU27 generation facilities for the considered scenarios and for the installed capacity in 2012, based on data from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2014 • Different expectations account for each scenario, but in any case, wind and solar will comprehend the greatest generation share,  They have a positive impact on copper 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 EU 2050 E[r] 2050 IEA - 2012 Photovoltaic Wind onshore Wind offshore Ocean Solar Thermal Hydro Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen Gas Fired Solids fired Oil Fired Nuclear Outside EU Copper content in generation facilities kton Source: The EC report “Energy Roadmap 2050”; The Greenpeace “Energy [R]evolution in Europe” report from 2012 1.C
  14. 14. 14 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 EU 2014-2050 E[r] 2014-2050 Kton Cu Investments Retirements • Energy transition will suppose not only investments in new generation facilities but also the retirement of the conventional ones • This needs to be taken into account by the copper industry in terms of recycling and reusing opportunities Copper in cumulative generation investments and retirements Source: CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis New generation investments are projected to be higher than retirements of installations, so the balance for copper usage will be positive 1.D
  15. 15. 15 RES technologies are evolving; there are positive trends as well as threats for copper usage in PV and wind technologies (1/2) Increased module & inverter DC voltage Aluminium in L1 to L2 combiner box cables Decentralized inverters (Scenario 1 - focus central) Decentralized inverters (Scenario 2 - focus string) New materials in PE switches Usage of trackers Transformer- less inverters Larger inverter and transformer unit (utility) 2020 -2,532 -1,527 -619 311 -101 883 -287 -133 2025 -5,884 -2,875 -1,288 1,691 -473 972 -592 -324 2030 -7,240 -4,145 -2,046 1,956 -1,230 1,060 -717 -416 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 Cutons Annual impact in copper usage in PV by trend/ threat in ECI-based scenario, worldwide (ranked by impact in absolute terms in 2030) Source: CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis Note: Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa and Asia (excluding China) 1.E
  16. 16. 16 Cutons Increased turbine size Al vs Cu in MV array cables Tower cable voltage: Generator voltage & transformer location Decreased specific power Wind farm size Increased internal wind farm voltage Generator / drivetrain technology 2020 4,944 -1,142 -4,866 1,896 1,709 -1,625 3,155 2025 11,855 -5,324 -10,927 6,313 5,692 -4,330 5,767 2030 19,809 -16,775 -16,179 15,365 13,854 -11,525 10,786 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Annual impact in copper usage in wind by trend/ threat, worldwide1 (ranked by impact in absolute terms in 2030) RES technologies are evolving; there are positive trends as well as threats for copper usage in PV and wind technologies (2/2) Source: CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis Note: Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa and Asia (excluding China) 1.F
  17. 17. 17 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Self-consumption will play an important role in the transition and as such will have an impact on copper; it does depend highly on regulation though and should be pushed further Source: CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis • Distributed generation (DG) and self- consumption allow consumers to participate in the energy transition • RES self-supply is being encouraged worldwide by incentive schemes in residential and commercial facilities, although each market present significant differences in these policies  So far, the most promising option is the net metering scheme • More self-consumption will lead to more RES deployment and potentially more grid investments. However, influence of self- consumption on T&D grids present opposite implications  One on the one hand because of lower energy flows, less grid capacity would be needed, leading to lower copper usage  On the other hand an increasing number of DG installation requires stronger grids to deal with fluctuations • Depending on the demand curve and the generation capacity of the system, a surplus will be generated and can be injected into the grid • Depending on the national regulation the surplus could be remunerated or accumulating credits for later consumption kW Day hours Consumption PV generation Consumption from de grid Surplus power Consumption from PVs Scheme of electricity consumption and PV generation for a household installation throughout one day 2.A
  18. 18. 18 The changing energy system which will integrate larger shares of RES will require investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure PV Output (sunny day) MW PV Output (cloudy day) MW Illustrative output from a PV plant in Nevada, 2008 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 • One of the main problems of reaching near 100% RES share is to be able to integrate all this variable generation into a system while keeping system reliability high  RES (wind and solar) cannot be controlled and forecasted with the same precision as conventional sources due to its dependence on seasonal and climate factors  RES’ effects on supply quality and grid’s stability need to be taken into account in the development of the grid • Therefore, RES will require  More extensive forecasts and energy system’s flexibility  To be integrated with another energy sources or storage technologies which allow to balance the supply  Additional technology to ensure supply’s quality for the final customers  Enhancing of demand-side management systems (DSM) Source: NAERC; ENTSOE; MIT; CREARA Analysis 2.B
  19. 19. 19 The case of wind can be used as an example of the need of grid technology for RES integration; its copper impact is driven by power electronics, which are very copper-intensive 2.C Source: “Conductor segmentation and actions in Wind and T&D” by CREARA Note: DC-LCC: DC-Line Commutated Converters; UPFC: Unified Power Flow Controller; IPFC: Interline Power Flow Controller; DC-VSC: DC-Voltage Source Converters; PST: Phase Shifting Transformer; SSSC: Static Synchronous Series Compensator; DLR: Dynamic Line Rating Estimated conductor content (kg/MVA) and conductor segmentation in T&D solutions Kg/MVA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Arithmetic mean DC-LCC UPFC IPFC DC-VSC AC SSSC PST DLR Material Copper 90% 92% 92% 86% 80% 93% 85% N/A Aluminium 10% 8% 8% 14% 20% 7% 15% N/A • In this graph, there is an estimate of the copper usage in technologies used for wind integration into the grid • This only takes into account the required investment in order to connect the source to the power system (mainly power electronics), not the copper used in the generators themselves
  20. 20. 20 MERCADO T&D Centralized generation with RES in Europe Interconnections between European and third-country’s grids can improve stability to achieve a more efficient use of the energy, especially in the case of RES, but also nuclear energy New wind installations New hydroelectric installations New solar installations • The interconnection in transportation grids gives several advantages:  Mutual support between grids in moments of generation issues if viable and consumption equilibrium, which means a better security and supply reliability  Access to cheaper energy sources because of the location of generation centers in more convenient places, which means a batter exploitation of the RES • A wider grid is being planned in Europe which allows bigger energy transfers between regions in order to guarantee equilibrium and counteract any kind of fluctuation, such as:  Complementing wind power from the north of Europe with the PV power from the south in different times of each day Source: ENTSOE; CREARA Analysis 2.C
  21. 21. 21 MERCADO T&D Needed increase in interconnection capacities in Europe for 2020 (MW) European interconnection capacities in 2010 and 2020 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2010 2020E Accumulated GW 148 158 306 100%52%48% % of total + 107% For 2020, a duplication of the European interconnection capacity is foreseen (compared to 2010), what entails an important increase in new cross-border transmission lines Source: KEMA; Imperial College London; European Commission; Realisegrid; CREARA Analysis 2.C
  22. 22. 22 The changing energy system will require investments in T&D infrastructure, although there are important discrepancies on how much copper will be employed Copper in transmission grid expansions Copper in distribution grid expansions • In the case of the distribution system expansion only copper in substations is considered  All transformers are considered to be made of copper 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 EU 2012-2050 E[r] 2012-2050 DC subsea cable DC converter stations AC substations AC subsea cable ktonCu 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 EU 2050 E[r] 2050 AC substations MV/LV transformer substation HV/MV transformer substation Source: Eurostat; CREARA Analysis Note: Overhead lines and underground cables are assumed to be made of aluminum • The difference between the two scenarios is significant, mainly due to subsea DC connections, especially those needed to import energy from Africa in the E[r] scenario  The E[r] scenario has also made a deliberate choice of DC vs. AC capacity, in an attempt to reduce the environmental impact of power lines, and therefore also increasing copper content  This difference in copper content will be much lower if no electricity imports were considered in the E[r] scenario (so more local generation would be needed, but the net result would be ~2.300 kton less in an E[r] scenario without imports) ktonCu 2.D
  23. 23. 23 Electric vehicles can have a significant impact on copper usage because of the copper intensities in the vehicles themselves as well as the needed charging infrastructure • EVs and chargers network will play an important roll pushing distributed generation infrastructure • The electric vehicle is more copper-intensive than ICE vehicle  Nowadays, copper content in an average internal combustion engine car is assumed here to be around 20 kg  No specific studies have been found regarding copper in EV, rough estimates have been collected, which assume a total copper content of 50-60 kg for an average electric car (0,3-0,4 kg/kW)  The types of EV charger have varying copper intensities: Cu (kg/ charger) Home charger (AC 3,6-7-2 kW) 1 Public charger (AC 3,6-7-2 kW) 1,7 Fast charger (DC 50 kW ) 100 Copper in electric vehicles and chargers (kton) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2012 EU 2050 E[r] 2050 kton Chargers EV/Hybrid ICE Source: Eurostat; CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis 3.A • The difference in copper content between the EU and the E[r] scenarios is caused by two differences in the assumptions: the share of electrical vehicles and the total number of vehicles
  24. 24. 24 Generally EE is expected to have a positive impact on copper, given that the different elements are copper-intensive or allow integration of other copper-intensive technologies (e.g. RES) Definition • As defined by the European Parliament, Energy efficiency (EE) means “the ratio of output of performance, service, goods or energy, to input of energy” Elements important for copper Analysis of impact on copper Pot. impact magnitude Impact sign Heat pumps Industrial electric heat nZEBs Appliances Building automation (BA) Harmonized standards Energy Management • Substitution of conventional heat generation and AC by heat pumps can have positive and negative effects on T&D and generation needs (increased efficiency, electrification) • Heat pumps have a significant copper content • Substitution of conventional industrial heat generation by electric alternatives • Electric heating alternatives have a significant copper content • Electric heating alternatives increase the need for T&D and generation infrastructure + ? + + • “Nearly zero- energy buildings have very high energy performance. The low amount of energy that these buildings require comes mostly from RES.”1 • nZEBs can integrate RES but can also reduce overall consumption Source: CREARA Analysis Note: 1 as defined by the European Commission ? • Depending on type of appliance, + or - impact is possible regarding copper content • Significant gains are probably related to heat electrification, probably with positive impact • Increasing EE reduces need for T&D and generation infrastructure + - • Lead to less barriers for economic activity (lower prices for services and goods, increasing consumption) • Also increase likelihood of new technologies • Sign of expected impact depends on the particular standard + + • Increasing BA use to improve comfort and operation and decrease energy consumption in buildings • By themselves reduce need for T&D and generation infrastructure by reducing both total and peak consumption • However, they can enable higher penetrations of non-controllable RES • They can also increase the need for controllers/actuators • Optimization of operation of energy production and consumption units to maximize yield as a whole and minimize cost - + + High High High Small or medium Small or medium Small or medium Small or medium ? neutral neutral 3.B + + + +
  25. 25. 25 Even if heat pumps are considered to have a higher copper intensity than fossil fuel heating alternatives, the reduction in energy demand can have an uncertain impact Copper in heat pumps (kton) Heatpumpskton • Heat pumps by themselves have a positive impact on copper due to its high content on this material • They are more efficient than other electric heating alternatives, and therefore could reduce energy demand and the need for T&D and generation infrastructure compared to the alternatives • However, at the same time they could cause a massive electrification of heat production, therefore increasing the need for infrastructure • That is why the overall impact on copper of energy transition for heating and cooling systems cannot be precisely quantified and would need further analysis Source: Eurostat; CREARA Research; CREARA Analysis Note: Other changes in the heating sector are not considered, such as solar heating, CHP, district heating, etc. 3.B 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 EU 2050 E[r] 2050
  26. 26. 26 Demand response by itself reduces the need for T&D and generation infrastructure; however, it can enable higher penetrations of non-controllable RES and require grid upgrades  From the point of view of the power system, both demand response (DR) and storage are very similar, as both allow decoupling generation from consumption. Main differences are:  DR’s efficiency is 100% while storage’s ranges from 50% to 80%  Hydrogen systems can storage energy over time while DR has no longer storage capabilities  DR’s impact is very important as the distribution grid capacity depends mainly on the peak load, and DR has the effect of reducing the difference between maximum and minimum load, therefore making a better use of the infrastructure  DR probably will reduce the need of transmission grid expansions to some extent, although it is unclear how much  The effect will be probably much lower than on distribution grids, as the main role of transmission grids in a 100% RES scenario is to bring the available variable generation to the consumption areas  Regarding generation capacity, the effect of DR (or any other storage) will certainly be to reduce the need of generation capacity, since it will allow the demand to follow the non-controllable generation to some extent Impact of demand response in distribution upgrades in 2030 • Supposing that this result could be extrapolated to the 2050 grid, it would mean a reduction of 60% of the required copper (312 kton less) for the high DR assumption compared to the original EU scenario 0 50 100 150 200 250 EU 2030 - no DR Low DR High DR B€ Distribution grid expansion Source: Eurostat; CREARA Analysis 1.A 3.B
  27. 27. 27 The demand for storage in 2050 will be up to 10 times the currently installed capacity and reduce the non-RES backup energy partially Source: The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU) • In 2050, there will be demand for up to 10 times the currently installed storage capacity  However, this capacity would only partially decrease required non-RES backup energy as well as amount of excess RES energy  Currently no estimation of copper impact is available for the 2050 horizon, except for hydrogen facilities • Conversion to heat and heat storage can reduce the required non-RES generation but will still leave excess energy in the high-RES scenario. Conversion to hydrogen for use outside of power sector will be able to economically utilize practically all the excess  Short-term, economically viable uses in the power system can serve as early markets (time shift in island systems, T&D upgrade deferral, provision of frequency reserve, home storage coupled with PV).  In these early markets, regulation should ensure storage can participate on a level playing field with other flexibility options. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 EU 2050 E[r] 2050 Copper in hydrogen generation facilities (kton) 3.B
  28. 28. 28 Summarizing the presented analyses, the energy transition will have an import impact on copper usage, although there are different scenarios on the distribution Net variation in copper content 2012- 2050 (kton) • Significant copper contents are foreseen for the implementation of several components of the energy transition • Total net variation in copper for both analyzed pathways is very similar, although the distribution by component is quite different  The most significant net variation is in generation and grid expansions because the EU scenario assumes almost no energy imports, while the E[r] scenario assumes a significant amount of generation outside EU which allows a reduction in needed generation facilities, but requires important grid upgrades, mainly HVDC links, to bring the energy to the consumption areas  For generation facilities, the high copper contents in PV and wind account for most of the net variations  Differences in “EV and chargers” are explained by the assumptions on EV penetration, where the E[r] scenario is more aggressive  The consequences of the electrification of heating via heat pumps do not seem to be too important regarding copper. While heat pumps seem to require more copper than fossil fuel equivalents, the increase in EE in buildings could yield a net reduction in copper content-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 EU 2050 E[r] 2050 kton Hydrogen production ICE vehicles, EVs and chargers Distribution grid expansion Transmission grid expansion Generation Heating (heat pumps and demand variations only) Source: The EC report “Energy Roadmap 2050”; The Greenpeace “Energy [R]evolution in Europe” report from 2012; CREARA Analysis Note: A snapshot was taken in 2012 and another in 2050, the difference in total copper was computed. This analysis implicitly assumes that the copper in retired generation facilities, grid assets and vehicles is fully recycled

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