1. To: InterestedParties
From: FourthLionTechnologies
Re: Uttar PradeshPre-ElectionSurveyResults
Date: February1, 2017
Horserace: BJP leadsthe horserace with28%,followedbySPat 18%. However,with 40%of voters undecided,there istremendousopportunityfor bothBJP
and SP. Theirtargets (undecidedvoters)include disproportionatenumbersof women,Dalits,OBCs, low income andrural voters. (Vehicle ownershipisusedas
a proxyfor income.)
Most Important Problem:The most important problemoverall andespecially forthese undecidedvotersis powercuts,followedbyjobs,economyand
development. A winningstrategywill involve targetingthese voterswitha credible message andplan to increase reliableelectricity.
Power Cuts: 38% of UP votersexperience powercutseverydayand54% experience powercutseveryweek. Inrural areas,43% experience powercutsevery
day and59% face powercuts everyweek. Women,rural voters,lowincomevoters,DalitsandMuslimsare mostlikelytoreportdailypowercuts.
Air Pollution:46% of urbanvoterssay the air theybreathe ispolluted,comparedwith26%of rural voters.
Solar Power: 87% of UP voterssay theywoulduse electricitygeneratedfromthe sunif itreducedpollution intheircommunity. Lowincome votersare more
supportive thanhigherincome voters –possiblybecause theyunderstandthataside frominvestmentinsolarcells,batteriesandotherinfrastructure,solar
energyitself isnever-endinganduntaxable.
PublicTransportation: 94% of UP voterssay theywouldbe willingtouse busesorotherpublictransportationif betterpublictransportationwere available. Not
surprisingly,those whodonotowna vehicle wouldbe mostlikelytouse publictransportationwhile those whoowncarswouldbe leastlikelytouse public
transportation.
Methodology:FourthLion conducted2,513 live telephoneinterviewswithUPregisteredvotersaged18 and olderfromJan24-31, 2017. The marginof erroris
+/- 1.96 percentage points. All surveyswere conductedinHindi,andwere distributedgeographicallythroughoutUPusingrandomdigitdial (RDD) to ensure that
everyUP telephone numberhadanequal probabilityof beingcontactedforthissurvey. We appliedweightsbasedonage,genderandcaste to ensure a
representative respondentsample. Respondentsare alsorepresentative of UPvotersonurban/rural and socioeconomicstatus. More informationregarding
the demographiccompositionof respondentsisavailableatthe endof thisreport.

2. Horserace: BJP leadswith28%,followedbySPwith18%while BSPandINC are in single digits. However, 40%of voters are undecided,whichis atremendous
opportunityforbothBJPand SP. Undecidedvotersare disproportionatelywomen,rural,lowerincome andlowercaste. BJP’sleadiswideramongmen,those
aged45+, in rural areas and amongthose withhigherincomesandforwardcastes. SPleadsBJPamongMuslims. SPand BJPare tiedamongwomenandnearly
tiedinurban areas. BSP supportincreasesslightly amongDalitsandmen.
If the election for Vidhan Sabha were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
BJP 28% 36% 19% 27% 26% 33% 29% 28% 38% 31% 27% 17%
SP 18% 17% 19% 20% 16% 19% 26% 16% 18% 13% 17% 28%
BSP 4% 6% 2% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 8% 3% 4%
INC 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1%
Undecided,don’tknow 40% 31% 50% 38% 45% 34% 29% 42% 31% 43% 44% 37%
Refused 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 10% 6% 6% 4% 7% 7%
Will not vote 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 4% 0% 3% 2% 2% 1% 6%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
BJP 28% 37% 32% 26%
SP 18% 21% 19% 16%
BSP 4% 2% 3% 5%
INC 1% 1% 1% 1%
Undecided,don’tknow 40% 26% 35% 43%
Refused 7% 12% 7% 7%
Will not vote 2% 0% 2% 3%

3. Most Important Problem:The mostimportantproblemfacingUPvotersispowercuts/energy, followedbyjobs/economy/development,waterandtransport.
Powercutsare especiallyimportantamongwomen,inrural areas,amongoldervoters,Dalits,andthose whodonotown a vehicle. Jobs,economyand
developmentare more importantthanpowercutsamong men,urbanvoters,OBCsand those whoowna vehicle. FoodisespeciallyimportantamongDalits,
while schools, education,crime andsafetyare importantamongthose whoowna car.
What is the most important problem facing Uttar Pradesh?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Power cuts, energy 28% 20% 37% 24% 29% 33% 17% 31% 30% 37% 21% 31%
Jobs, economy,development 20% 24% 15% 23% 18% 17% 23% 19% 18% 14% 25% 19%
Water shortages,clean water 10% 11% 10% 9% 11% 11% 9% 11% 9% 8% 13% 7%
Transport, roads 7% 9% 6% 8% 8% 6% 5% 8% 8% 6% 9% 5%
Food 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 2% 4% 2% 12% 1% 2%
Currency ban 3% 4% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 4%
Crime,safety 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 2% 4%
Corruption 2% 3% 1% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Sanitation, toilets 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1%
Schools,education 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Health, hospitals,medical care 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Agriculture,farming 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Power cuts, energy 28% 12% 17% 33%
Jobs, economy,development 20% 21% 21% 19%
Water shortages,clean water 10% 7% 11% 10%
Transport, roads 7% 6% 8% 7%
Food 4% 0% 2% 5%
Currency ban 3% 2% 4% 2%
Crime,safety 3% 10% 5% 1%
Corruption 2% 7% 3% 2%
Sanitation, toilets 2% 1% 3% 2%
Schools,education 2% 12% 3% 1%
Health, hospitals,medical care 1% 1% 1% 1%
Agriculture,farming 1% 1% 1% 1%

4. Important IssuesRanked: Continuousandreliable poweristhe mostimportantissue voterswill considerwhendecidinghowtovote amongthose issueswe
tested– aheadof cleanwater andcleanair. 40 percentsay continuousandreliable poweris‘very’importantwhile54%say continuousandreliable poweris
‘very’or‘somewhat’important. Powerismore importantamongwomen,Dalits,rural votersandthose withnovehicleandlessimportantamongmen,urban
votersand those whoowna vehicle. Cleanwaterismore importanttowomenthanmen,inrural areasrather thanurban areas,and amongDalits. Cleanairis
more importantamongforwardcastesand those whoowna vehicle thanitisamongothervoters.
When thinking about how you will vote, how important is each of the following issues?
Very important
Very + somewhat / not very +
not at all important
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Continuousand reliable supply
of power
40
54/42
35
50/46
46
59/37
36
52/42
45
57/41
38
53/43
21
39/57
44
58/39
39
53/41
47
55/33
38
52/45
42
55/41
Cleanwater 28
40/54
25
37/57
32
43/50
28
42/52
28
39/57
28
37/53
15
30/65
31
42/51
27
40/52
38
50/42
25
34/61
25
41/54
Air quality,air pollution 16
26/63
14
24/66
18
27/59
16
27/62
16
24/68
15
26/58
16
28/65
16
25/62
20
31/59
15
26/59
14
20/67
17
28/66
Very important
Very + somewhat / not very + not at all important
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Continuousand reliable supplyof power 40
54/42
32
47/50
34
46/50
41
57/39
Cleanwater 28
40/54
22
40/53
22
31/63
29
41/52
Air quality,air pollution 16
26/63
15
31/62
13
21/66
15
25/64

5. Power Cuts: 38% of UP votersexperience powercutseveryday,and54% experiencepowercutseveryweek. Only26%neverexperience powercuts. More
womenthanmenexperience powercutsdaily – perhapsbecause theyare more likelytobe home whenthe powergoesout,orbecause theyare more reliant
on powerat home. Rural votersare muchmore likelytoexperiencepowercutsthanurbanvoters.
How frequently do you and your family experience power cuts?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Every day 38% 33% 45% 34% 44% 34% 18% 43% 38% 48% 34% 42%
Every weekbut not every day 16% 18% 13% 14% 18% 16% 13% 16% 15% 13% 20% 11%
Occasionallybut not everyweek 17% 18% 15% 17% 12% 23% 29% 14% 16% 11% 17% 15%
Never 26% 28% 25% 32% 22% 25% 37% 24% 28% 25% 25% 29%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Every day 38% 33% 29% 41%
Every weekbut not every day 16% 18% 19% 14%
Occasionallybut not everyweek 17% 19% 16% 18%
Never 26% 27% 31% 25%
Air Pollution:29% of UP voterssay the air theybreathe ispolluted,butthatrisesto46% amongurban voters. Forwardcastes,Muslims,youngpeopleandthose
whoown cars are more likelytosaythe air theybreathe ispolluted –possiblybecause manyof themlive inurbanareas.
Do you think the air you breathe is polluted?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Yes 29% 31% 27% 34% 30% 24% 46% 26% 36% 27% 24% 32%
No 66% 64% 67% 61% 66% 71% 49% 69% 60% 71% 69% 63%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Yes 29% 36% 33% 26%
No 66% 61% 61% 69%

6. Solar Power: 87% of UP voterssay theywoulduse electricitygeneratedfromthe sunif itreducedpollutionintheircommunity. Those who donotown a vehicle
are mostlikelytouse solarenergywhilethose whoowncarsare leastlikelytouse solarenergy.
Would you use electricity generated from the sun if it reduced pollution in your community?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Yes 87% 87% 88% 88% 89% 85% 88% 87% 86% 87% 90% 90%
No 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 13% 11% 11% 12% 13% 9% 7%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Yes 87% 73% 85% 90%
No 11% 25% 12% 8%
PublicTransportation: 94% of UP voterssay theywouldbe willingtouse busesorotherpublictransportationif betterpublictransportationwere available. Not
surprisingly,those whodonotowna vehicle wouldbe mostlikelytouse publictransportationwhile those whoowncarswouldbe leastlikelytouse public
transportation.
Would you be willing to use buses or other public transportation if better public transportation were available?
All
Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community
Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim
Yes 94% 94% 95% 94% 94% 96% 92% 95% 92% 95% 96% 95%
No 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 4% 8% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4%
All
Vehicle
Car Two wheeler No vehicle
Yes 94% 87% 93% 96%
No 5% 12% 6% 4%

7. Demographics
Our respondentsamplewasweightedonage,genderandcaste tobe representative of registeredvotersin UttarPradesh. Ourrespondentsare also
representative of UPvotersonotherdemographicssuchas urban/rural andsocioeconomicstatus.
Age 18-29 34% / 30-44 37% / 45+ 28%
Caste/Community Forward19% / Dalit20% / OBC34% / Muslim18% / Refused7%
Gender M 54% / F 46%
Urban/Rural 18% urban/ 81% rural
Socioeconomic
Status
Doesyour familyreceive discountedfood,cookingoil,cookingfuel orotherbasicnecessities? Y62% / N 37%
Do youhave a toiletwithrunningwaterinyourhome?Y57% / N 42%
Do youhave electricityinyourhome?Y84% / N 16%
Do youor someone inyourfamilyownacar, twowheelerorneither? Car5% / Two wheeler27%/ Neither64%