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To: InterestedParties
From: FourthLionTechnologies
Re: Uttar PradeshPre-ElectionSurveyResults
Date: February1, 2017
Horser...
Horserace: BJP leadswith28%,followedbySPwith18%while BSPandINC are in single digits. However, 40%of voters are undecided,w...
Most Important Problem:The mostimportantproblemfacingUPvotersispowercuts/energy, followedbyjobs/economy/development,watera...
Important IssuesRanked: Continuousandreliable poweristhe mostimportantissue voterswill considerwhendecidinghowtovote among...
Power Cuts: 38% of UP votersexperience powercutseveryday,and54% experiencepowercutseveryweek. Only26%neverexperience power...
Solar Power: 87% of UP voterssay theywoulduse electricitygeneratedfromthe sunif itreducedpollutionintheircommunity. Those ...
Demographics
Our respondentsamplewasweightedonage,genderandcaste tobe representative of registeredvotersin UttarPradesh. O...
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Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Survey (2017) Results from FourthLion

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About FourthLion Technologies: FourthLion Technologies is India’s leading provider of public opinion polling, using our proprietary instaVaani polling platform, and is the creator of India’s leading mobile ordering, payment, rewards and analytics platform (WalkIn). FourthLion has conducted more than 1 million telephonic surveys with Indian voters and has published findings in leading publications such as India Today and Mint. FourthLion has also built the fastest growing loyalty and payment app in India for Café Coffee Day, India’s largest food and beverage retailer. FourthLion works with clients in the retail, media, government, politics and development sectors.

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Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Survey (2017) Results from FourthLion

  1. 1. To: InterestedParties From: FourthLionTechnologies Re: Uttar PradeshPre-ElectionSurveyResults Date: February1, 2017 Horserace: BJP leadsthe horserace with28%,followedbySPat 18%. However,with 40%of voters undecided,there istremendousopportunityfor bothBJP and SP. Theirtargets (undecidedvoters)include disproportionatenumbersof women,Dalits,OBCs, low income andrural voters. (Vehicle ownershipisusedas a proxyfor income.) Most Important Problem:The most important problemoverall andespecially forthese undecidedvotersis powercuts,followedbyjobs,economyand development. A winningstrategywill involve targetingthese voterswitha credible message andplan to increase reliableelectricity. Power Cuts: 38% of UP votersexperience powercutseverydayand54% experience powercutseveryweek. Inrural areas,43% experience powercutsevery day and59% face powercuts everyweek. Women,rural voters,lowincomevoters,DalitsandMuslimsare mostlikelytoreportdailypowercuts. Air Pollution:46% of urbanvoterssay the air theybreathe ispolluted,comparedwith26%of rural voters. Solar Power: 87% of UP voterssay theywoulduse electricitygeneratedfromthe sunif itreducedpollution intheircommunity. Lowincome votersare more supportive thanhigherincome voters –possiblybecause theyunderstandthataside frominvestmentinsolarcells,batteriesandotherinfrastructure,solar energyitself isnever-endinganduntaxable. PublicTransportation: 94% of UP voterssay theywouldbe willingtouse busesorotherpublictransportationif betterpublictransportationwere available. Not surprisingly,those whodonotowna vehicle wouldbe mostlikelytouse publictransportationwhile those whoowncarswouldbe leastlikelytouse public transportation. Methodology:FourthLion conducted2,513 live telephoneinterviewswithUPregisteredvotersaged18 and olderfromJan24-31, 2017. The marginof erroris +/- 1.96 percentage points. All surveyswere conductedinHindi,andwere distributedgeographicallythroughoutUPusingrandomdigitdial (RDD) to ensure that everyUP telephone numberhadanequal probabilityof beingcontactedforthissurvey. We appliedweightsbasedonage,genderandcaste to ensure a representative respondentsample. Respondentsare alsorepresentative of UPvotersonurban/rural and socioeconomicstatus. More informationregarding the demographiccompositionof respondentsisavailableatthe endof thisreport.
  2. 2. Horserace: BJP leadswith28%,followedbySPwith18%while BSPandINC are in single digits. However, 40%of voters are undecided,whichis atremendous opportunityforbothBJPand SP. Undecidedvotersare disproportionatelywomen,rural,lowerincome andlowercaste. BJP’sleadiswideramongmen,those aged45+, in rural areas and amongthose withhigherincomesandforwardcastes. SPleadsBJPamongMuslims. SPand BJPare tiedamongwomenandnearly tiedinurban areas. BSP supportincreasesslightly amongDalitsandmen. If the election for Vidhan Sabha were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim BJP 28% 36% 19% 27% 26% 33% 29% 28% 38% 31% 27% 17% SP 18% 17% 19% 20% 16% 19% 26% 16% 18% 13% 17% 28% BSP 4% 6% 2% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 8% 3% 4% INC 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% Undecided,don’tknow 40% 31% 50% 38% 45% 34% 29% 42% 31% 43% 44% 37% Refused 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 10% 6% 6% 4% 7% 7% Will not vote 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 4% 0% 3% 2% 2% 1% 6% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle BJP 28% 37% 32% 26% SP 18% 21% 19% 16% BSP 4% 2% 3% 5% INC 1% 1% 1% 1% Undecided,don’tknow 40% 26% 35% 43% Refused 7% 12% 7% 7% Will not vote 2% 0% 2% 3%
  3. 3. Most Important Problem:The mostimportantproblemfacingUPvotersispowercuts/energy, followedbyjobs/economy/development,waterandtransport. Powercutsare especiallyimportantamongwomen,inrural areas,amongoldervoters,Dalits,andthose whodonotown a vehicle. Jobs,economyand developmentare more importantthanpowercutsamong men,urbanvoters,OBCsand those whoowna vehicle. FoodisespeciallyimportantamongDalits, while schools, education,crime andsafetyare importantamongthose whoowna car. What is the most important problem facing Uttar Pradesh? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Power cuts, energy 28% 20% 37% 24% 29% 33% 17% 31% 30% 37% 21% 31% Jobs, economy,development 20% 24% 15% 23% 18% 17% 23% 19% 18% 14% 25% 19% Water shortages,clean water 10% 11% 10% 9% 11% 11% 9% 11% 9% 8% 13% 7% Transport, roads 7% 9% 6% 8% 8% 6% 5% 8% 8% 6% 9% 5% Food 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 2% 4% 2% 12% 1% 2% Currency ban 3% 4% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 4% Crime,safety 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 2% 4% Corruption 2% 3% 1% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% Sanitation, toilets 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% Schools,education 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% Health, hospitals,medical care 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Agriculture,farming 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Power cuts, energy 28% 12% 17% 33% Jobs, economy,development 20% 21% 21% 19% Water shortages,clean water 10% 7% 11% 10% Transport, roads 7% 6% 8% 7% Food 4% 0% 2% 5% Currency ban 3% 2% 4% 2% Crime,safety 3% 10% 5% 1% Corruption 2% 7% 3% 2% Sanitation, toilets 2% 1% 3% 2% Schools,education 2% 12% 3% 1% Health, hospitals,medical care 1% 1% 1% 1% Agriculture,farming 1% 1% 1% 1%
  4. 4. Important IssuesRanked: Continuousandreliable poweristhe mostimportantissue voterswill considerwhendecidinghowtovote amongthose issueswe tested– aheadof cleanwater andcleanair. 40 percentsay continuousandreliable poweris‘very’importantwhile54%say continuousandreliable poweris ‘very’or‘somewhat’important. Powerismore importantamongwomen,Dalits,rural votersandthose withnovehicleandlessimportantamongmen,urban votersand those whoowna vehicle. Cleanwaterismore importanttowomenthanmen,inrural areasrather thanurban areas,and amongDalits. Cleanairis more importantamongforwardcastesand those whoowna vehicle thanitisamongothervoters. When thinking about how you will vote, how important is each of the following issues? Very important Very + somewhat / not very + not at all important All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Continuousand reliable supply of power 40 54/42 35 50/46 46 59/37 36 52/42 45 57/41 38 53/43 21 39/57 44 58/39 39 53/41 47 55/33 38 52/45 42 55/41 Cleanwater 28 40/54 25 37/57 32 43/50 28 42/52 28 39/57 28 37/53 15 30/65 31 42/51 27 40/52 38 50/42 25 34/61 25 41/54 Air quality,air pollution 16 26/63 14 24/66 18 27/59 16 27/62 16 24/68 15 26/58 16 28/65 16 25/62 20 31/59 15 26/59 14 20/67 17 28/66 Very important Very + somewhat / not very + not at all important All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Continuousand reliable supplyof power 40 54/42 32 47/50 34 46/50 41 57/39 Cleanwater 28 40/54 22 40/53 22 31/63 29 41/52 Air quality,air pollution 16 26/63 15 31/62 13 21/66 15 25/64
  5. 5. Power Cuts: 38% of UP votersexperience powercutseveryday,and54% experiencepowercutseveryweek. Only26%neverexperience powercuts. More womenthanmenexperience powercutsdaily – perhapsbecause theyare more likelytobe home whenthe powergoesout,orbecause theyare more reliant on powerat home. Rural votersare muchmore likelytoexperiencepowercutsthanurbanvoters. How frequently do you and your family experience power cuts? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Every day 38% 33% 45% 34% 44% 34% 18% 43% 38% 48% 34% 42% Every weekbut not every day 16% 18% 13% 14% 18% 16% 13% 16% 15% 13% 20% 11% Occasionallybut not everyweek 17% 18% 15% 17% 12% 23% 29% 14% 16% 11% 17% 15% Never 26% 28% 25% 32% 22% 25% 37% 24% 28% 25% 25% 29% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Every day 38% 33% 29% 41% Every weekbut not every day 16% 18% 19% 14% Occasionallybut not everyweek 17% 19% 16% 18% Never 26% 27% 31% 25% Air Pollution:29% of UP voterssay the air theybreathe ispolluted,butthatrisesto46% amongurban voters. Forwardcastes,Muslims,youngpeopleandthose whoown cars are more likelytosaythe air theybreathe ispolluted –possiblybecause manyof themlive inurbanareas. Do you think the air you breathe is polluted? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Yes 29% 31% 27% 34% 30% 24% 46% 26% 36% 27% 24% 32% No 66% 64% 67% 61% 66% 71% 49% 69% 60% 71% 69% 63% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Yes 29% 36% 33% 26% No 66% 61% 61% 69%
  6. 6. Solar Power: 87% of UP voterssay theywoulduse electricitygeneratedfromthe sunif itreducedpollutionintheircommunity. Those who donotown a vehicle are mostlikelytouse solarenergywhilethose whoowncarsare leastlikelytouse solarenergy. Would you use electricity generated from the sun if it reduced pollution in your community? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Yes 87% 87% 88% 88% 89% 85% 88% 87% 86% 87% 90% 90% No 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 13% 11% 11% 12% 13% 9% 7% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Yes 87% 73% 85% 90% No 11% 25% 12% 8% PublicTransportation: 94% of UP voterssay theywouldbe willingtouse busesorotherpublictransportationif betterpublictransportationwere available. Not surprisingly,those whodonotowna vehicle wouldbe mostlikelytouse publictransportationwhile those whoowncarswouldbe leastlikelytouse public transportation. Would you be willing to use buses or other public transportation if better public transportation were available? All Gender Age Urban/Rural Caste/Community Men Women 18-29 30-44 45+ Urban Rural Forward Dalit OBC Muslim Yes 94% 94% 95% 94% 94% 96% 92% 95% 92% 95% 96% 95% No 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 4% 8% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% All Vehicle Car Two wheeler No vehicle Yes 94% 87% 93% 96% No 5% 12% 6% 4%
  7. 7. Demographics Our respondentsamplewasweightedonage,genderandcaste tobe representative of registeredvotersin UttarPradesh. Ourrespondentsare also representative of UPvotersonotherdemographicssuchas urban/rural andsocioeconomicstatus. Age 18-29 34% / 30-44 37% / 45+ 28% Caste/Community Forward19% / Dalit20% / OBC34% / Muslim18% / Refused7% Gender M 54% / F 46% Urban/Rural 18% urban/ 81% rural Socioeconomic Status Doesyour familyreceive discountedfood,cookingoil,cookingfuel orotherbasicnecessities? Y62% / N 37% Do youhave a toiletwithrunningwaterinyourhome?Y57% / N 42% Do youhave electricityinyourhome?Y84% / N 16% Do youor someone inyourfamilyownacar, twowheelerorneither? Car5% / Two wheeler27%/ Neither64%

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