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Is It Working? Are the Region's and City's Transportation Policies and Actions Moving Us in Their Desired Directions?

2016, 12:00pm PDT Roger Geller, Bicycle Coordinator, City of Portland, Oregon

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Is It Working? Are the Region's and City's Transportation Policies and Actions Moving Us in Their Desired Directions?

  1. 1. 2000-2014 15,235 5,119 3,423 18,572 12,901 drove alone transit walked bicycled worked at home -2,546 carpool
  2. 2. 2000-2014 28%
  3. 3. Metropolitan Region 2000-2014 53,197 drove alone 12,321 6,450 21,539 walked bicycled 2,046 worked at home carpool transit 23,063
  4. 4. Metropolitan Region 2000-2014 drive v non-drive 42%
  5. 5. Is it working? An analysis of the growth in regional and local commuters 2000-2014 to determine if regional and local policies are moving us in our desired policy direction Roger Geller Bicycle Coordinator City of Portland, Oregon TREC Friday Transportation Seminar May 13, 2016
  6. 6. Questions • Which are the census tracts where the number of commuters is increasing the most? • Which are the census tracts where drive alone commuters are growing more slowly than the overall growth in total commutes? • In those census tracts, what is taking the place of drive-alone commuters? • What are the overall characteristics of those census tracts where drive alone commuting is not growing as fast as overall growth in commuting? • What has been the relationship between bus transit and rail transit?
  7. 7. Regional Data
  8. 8. Regional Data Outside the UGB: 9% of regional commuters (81,000) Within the UGB: 91% of regional commuters (773,000) City of Portland: 38% of regional commuters (326,000) Total regional commuters: 854,100 (2014)
  9. 9. Regional Data Outside the UGB: 33% of growth in regional commuters (40,000, 98% growth) Within the UGB: 67% of growth in regional commuters (82,500, 12% growth) City of Portland: 45% of growth in regional commuters (55,000, 20% growth) Total growth in commuters: 122,400 (17% growth)
  10. 10. Regional Data Worked at home Bicycle Transit Walk Carpool Other Drove alone 43% 42% 49%
  11. 11. Counties
  12. 12. Regional distribution 67.5% in 2014; was 71.5% in 2000
  13. 13. Change in trips region
  14. 14. Table 1
  15. 15. Table 1
  16. 16. Change in trips region
  17. 17. Maps
  18. 18. Regional Data
  19. 19. Commuters Maps
  20. 20. Commuters Maps
  21. 21. Commuters Maps 2010-2014 Within the UGB: 91% of regional commuters (773,000) City of Portland: 38% of regional commuters (326,000)
  22. 22. Drive Alone Maps
  23. 23. Drive Alone Map
  24. 24. Drive Alone MapReflecting an increase of 34,301 42% of overall increase
  25. 25. Work at Home Maps
  26. 26. Work at Home Maps
  27. 27. Work at Home MapsReflecting an increase of 19,676 24% of overall increase
  28. 28. Bicycling Maps
  29. 29. Bicycling Maps
  30. 30. Bicycling MapsReflecting an increase of 17,017 21% of overall increase
  31. 31. Walking Maps
  32. 32. Walking Maps
  33. 33. Walking MapsReflecting an increase of 6,990 8% of overall increase
  34. 34. Transit Maps
  35. 35. Transit Maps
  36. 36. Transit MapsReflecting an increase of 6,373 8% of overall increase
  37. 37. Transit Maps
  38. 38. Transit MapsReflecting a decrease of 474 0% of overall increase
  39. 39. Transit Maps
  40. 40. Transit MapsReflecting an increase of 6,847 8% of overall increase
  41. 41. Carpool Maps
  42. 42. Carpool Maps
  43. 43. Carpool MapsReflecting a decrease of 4,140 0% of overall increase
  44. 44. Tract Analysis Maps
  45. 45. Regional Data 447,000 58% 189,000 24% 138,000 18%
  46. 46. Regional Data
  47. 47. UGB data total 42%
  48. 48. Regional Data 447,000 58%
  49. 49. Regional Data
  50. 50. UGB data: census tracts where driving alone declined 42%
  51. 51. Regional Data 189,000 24%
  52. 52. Regional Data
  53. 53. UGB data: census tracts where driving alone grew slower than growth in commuters
  54. 54. Regional Data 138,000 18%
  55. 55. Regional Data
  56. 56. UGB data: census tracts where driving alone grew faster than growth in commuters 86%
  57. 57. Regional Data
  58. 58. Portland
  59. 59. 2000 census
  60. 60. 2010-2014 ACS
  61. 61. 2007 8 percent
  62. 62. 2012 8 percent 7
  63. 63. 2007 4.5 percent
  64. 64. 2012 4.5 percent
  65. 65. Change in commuters relative to 2000 Percentage of change 2000 2014 Bicycled 18,572 34% 4,775 23,347 389% Drove Alone 15,235 28% 172,491 187,726 9% Worked at Home 12,901 24% 11,780 24,681 110% Transit 5,119 9% 33,410 38,529 15% Walked 3,423 6% 14,192 17,615 24% Carpooled -2,546 -5% 32,197 29,651 -8% Total growth in commuters*: 54,673 Total commuters* 271,234 325,907 20% *Not all modes are represented, hence the discrepancy between totals and sum of numbers in columns. Modes not represented include: taxicab, motorcycle and "other means". Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Growth in mode since 2000 # of commuters Percentage Growth Change in commuting by Portland residents 2000 to 2014
  66. 66. Regional Data43% 42% 28% 49%
  67. 67. If we had…
  68. 68. 2000-2014
  69. 69. 2000-2014
  70. 70. Metropolitan Region 2000-2014
  71. 71. Metropolitan Region 2000-2014
  72. 72. MultCo 2000-2014
  73. 73. MultCo 2000-2014
  74. 74. WashCo 2000-2014
  75. 75. WashCo 2000-2014
  76. 76. ClackCo 2000-2014
  77. 77. ClackCo 2000-2014
  78. 78. 2014-2035
  79. 79. 2014-2035
  80. 80. Metropolitan Region 2014-2035 drive v non-drive
  81. 81. Reasons to take heart… or not Reasons to take heart
  82. 82. Metro: 67% of trips < 2 miles are by automobile
  83. 83. Right size transportation investments
  84. 84. Portland Region Transportation Expenditures Cumulative 1995-2010 Motor vehicle & freight $3.4 billion transit $2.1 billionactive transportation $0.15 billion
  85. 85. Portland Region Transportation Expenditures Cumulative 1995-2010 At current spending levels, roads, bridges, freight and throughway projects will be complete in 2057 at an estimated additional cost of $9.8 billion
  86. 86. Portland Region Transportation Expenditures Cumulative 1995-2010 At current spending levels, the transit system will be complete in 2040 at an estimated additional cost of $3.8 billion
  87. 87. Portland Region Transportation Expenditures Cumulative 1995-2010 At current spending levels, the active transportation system will be complete in 2209 at an estimated additional cost of $2.1 billion
  88. 88. Principal takeaways 2000-2014 • The number of regional commuters grew 17% in the period 2000 to 2014 • Multnomah County accounted for 47% of the growth; Washington County for 36% and Clackamas County for 16% • MultCo has least growth in drive-alone commuting (6%); WashCo had most growth (16%); ClackCo was at 8% • Regionally, drive alone commuters increased 10% and accounted for 43% of the growth in comuters
  89. 89. Principal takeaways 2000-2014 • None of the counties saw the number of driving alone commuters increase faster than total growth in commuters • In MultCo bicycling contributed the most; in WashCo transit contributed the most; in ClackCo working at home contributed the most • For the region, absolute growth in non-SOV modes collectively exceeded the growth in SOV commuting • Regionally driving alone dropped from 71.5% in 2000 to 67.5% in 2014
  90. 90. Principal takeaways 2000-2014 • The number of commuters within the UGB grew 12% in the period 2000 to 2014 • Driving alone represented only 42% of growth in UGB commuters • Most UGB commuters (58%) live in areas where driving alone grew slower than the growth of commuters • Eighteen percent (18%) of UGB commuters live in areas where driving alone grew faster than the growth of commuters; in those areas driving alone accounted for 86% of the growth in commuting
  91. 91. Principal takeaways 2000-2014 • The number of Portland commuters grew 20% in the period 2000 to 2014 • Driving alone dropped from 64% of all commute trips in 2000 to 58% in 2014 • Driving alone increased 9%, well less than the 20% growth in Portland commuters • Driving alone represented only 28% of growth in Portland commuters • Increase in Portland commuters accounted for 45% of growth in regional commuters
  92. 92. Principal takeaways 2000-2014 • It is Portland’s significant growth in bicycling and working at home that have been the principal reasons why the region is moving in a positive direction in achieving its transportation policies.
  93. 93. Questions • Which are the census tracts where the number of commuters is increasing the most? • Which are the census tracts where drive alone commuters are growing more slowly than the overall growth in total commutes? • In those census tracts, what is taking the place of drive-alone commuters? • What are the overall characteristics of those census tracts where drive alone commuting is not growing as fast as overall growth in commuting? • What has been the relationship between bus transit and rail transit?
  94. 94. Policy leads to investment leads to desired outcomes.

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