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#NoEstimates does not mean "no estimates"

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An explanation of why people still want estimates, and how we can satisfy their needs without actually estimating

Published in: Technology

#NoEstimates does not mean "no estimates"

  1. 1. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk #NoEstimates does not mean “no estimates!” Seb Rose Claysnow Limited Thursday, 26 March 15
  2. 2. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Your company NEEDS that estimate Thursday, 26 March 15
  3. 3. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  4. 4. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  5. 5. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  6. 6. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk I’ll be back tomorrow to finish off You’ll be in by Christmas That will be fixed before we leave All our previous customers are completely satisfied We don’t make mistakes like other builders You won’t notice we’re there Thursday, 26 March 15
  7. 7. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The project status is still green We’re 90% done We will deliver with zero defects On time, on budget every project It’s working in the test environment Integration takes hardly any time Thursday, 26 March 15
  8. 8. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk BANG HEAD HERE Observed Cycle http://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg Thursday, 26 March 15
  9. 9. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The idea behind the #NoEstimates approach to software development isn't to eliminate estimates [it is] to explore other ways to solve problems without specifically asking, 'How long will it take?' http://www.cio.com/article/2381167/agile-development/-no-estimates-in-action-5-ways-to-rethink-software-projects.html Thursday, 26 March 15
  10. 10. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk So, why do we estimate? •Prediction •Prioritisation •Analysis and understanding of requirements Thursday, 26 March 15
  11. 11. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prediction Thursday, 26 March 15
  12. 12. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr, physicist Thursday, 26 March 15
  13. 13. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  14. 14. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management Thursday, 26 March 15
  15. 15. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  16. 16. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  17. 17. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Overconfidence Thursday, 26 March 15
  18. 18. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk "We aren't really bad at estimating. What we are really bad at is enumerating all the assumptions that lie behind our estimates." -Paul Rook Thursday, 26 March 15
  19. 19. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  20. 20. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Is it small, or just far away? Thursday, 26 March 15
  21. 21. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  22. 22. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk https://estimation.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-range-8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png Thursday, 26 March 15
  23. 23. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prioritisation Thursday, 26 March 15
  24. 24. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15
  25. 25. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk MMFs 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Naked Planning In progress Urgent Average delivery time from here: ?? days Thursday, 26 March 15
  26. 26. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ ... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value. Thursday, 26 March 15
  27. 27. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ 1.Better Decision-making – by making the economic trade-offs visible 2.Better Prioritisation – by using CD3 (Cost of Delay Divided by Duration) we deliver more total value 3.By changing the focus – from efficiency and cost (which encourages the wrong behaviours), to speed and value Thursday, 26 March 15
  28. 28. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Analysis Thursday, 26 March 15
  29. 29. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk “... during an inception, when we are most ignorant about most aspects of the project, the best use we can possibly make of the time available is to attempt to identify and reduce our ignorance” http://dannorth.net/2010/08/30/introducing-deliberate-discovery/ Deliberate discovery Thursday, 26 March 15
  30. 30. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Challenge the use of estimates - what are they we trying to achieve? What’s the value of the project - estimates of cost may not be necessary Is it small or just far away? - ignorance is our major constraint Take aways Thursday, 26 March 15
  31. 31. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Ask yourself whether the value you get from estimates justifies the cost of producing them. #NoEstimates is the banner under which people who answer “NO!” are looking for better, cheaper ways of getting the benefits that we want, without the waste that we don’t. Finally.... Thursday, 26 March 15
  32. 32. Seb  Rose Twi$er:     @sebrose Blog:       www.claysnow.co.uk E-­‐mail:     seb@claysnow.co.uk Discount code at pragprog.com CukeUp!_London_25% Valid for 1 month Thursday, 26 March 15

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